تدريب Shadowing: Is the war in Iran causing jet fuel shortages? - What in the World podcast, BBC World Service - تعلم التحدث بالإنجليزية مع YouTube

Flights get cancelled for all sorts of reasons under normal circumstances.

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Flights get cancelled for all sorts of reasons under normal circumstances.

But as I say, the longer this goes on, the more likely it is that we'll see cancellations because the airlines are worried about running out of fuel.

Are flights more likely to be cancelled, if you're flying with a low cost or a budget airline, and is there a difference if it's long haul versus short haul?

Hello everyone, and welcome aboard this episode of What in the World from the BBC World Service. This is your captain speaking.

I'm Hannah Gelbart, and today we're talking about jet fuel.

It has been a bumpy ride and loads of you have been asking what the rising price of jet fuel means for your flights and holidays this year.

That's because since the war in Iran started a few months ago, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked and it's one of the world's busiest oil shipping routes.

So global supplies of oil have been severely disrupted.

Jet fuel prices more than doubled after the war began, and the cost of some plane tickets has gone up dramatically.

You have been sending in loads of questions about this, and today we're going to get some answers from Emer Moreau, who is a BBC business reporter and our co-pilot here today.

Welcome to the programme.

Thank you very much.

So first question lots of people want to know, is jet fuel running out or is it just getting more expensive now?

It's more expensive because of the possibility of it running out if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for much longer.

Jet fuel is basically a type of kerosene which is made from crude oil.

And as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the possibility of airline jet fuel stocks basically running low is is a possibility.

There're no shortages now.

Flights aren't being cancelled because the airlines physically don't have fuel.

But the longer this situation goes on in the Middle East, the more of a possibility that is. And that's pushing the price up.

Talking about planes, being pilots ourselves, plane food, love it or hate it.

I think by the time I get on the plane, I'm just hungry enough that I'll eat anything. Oh, I know I can be picky.

I can be very picky. Back to the more serious stuff though.

Flight cancellations. How many flights have been cancelled?

So for the month of May, airlines cut 13000 flights from their schedules.

That seems like a big number, but it's actually only 1% of all flights globally, and it's important to remember that under normal circumstances, cancellations do happen.

And particularly on kind of budget airlines where they're operating on this business model, that it's basically not profitable for them to fly a half empty plane and flights get canceled for all sorts of reasons under normal circumstances.

But as I say, the longer this goes on, the more likely it is that we'll see cancellations because the airlines are worried about running out of fuel.

We have put out a shout out on our social media about this, and we're going to look at some of the comments that we have been getting.

So Rumi and Ruta are both worried about flight cancellations, and Rumi says she's worried that she'll only be notified last minute.

Ruta says she's scared she'll have to pay extra for fuel.

So firstly, what about Rumi's worries about last minute flight cancellations.

Are people being notified last minute? It's a mix.

As I say, under normal circumstances, airlines do cancel flights at the last minute from time to time.

What's happening at the moment in a lot of cases is airlines that said, when the war broke out, 'We're not going to fly to these destinations in the Middle East.' They suspended those routes.

And as the war goes on, they're just kind of extending those suspensions.

So if you're flying to somewhere like Australia via Dubai, that will be quite a common route with the with the layover in Dubai, those routes are being suspended.

But there are, as always, last minute cancellations for various reasons.

What can you do if your flight is cancelled?

It depends where you are in the world.

So check the airline's policy for cancellations.

Check your country's cancellation policy and what your rights are.

So in the EU, passengers tend to have the most rights for cancellations, delays, that kind of thing.

But you don't have to be an EU citizen necessarily.

If you're flying in or out of an EU airport, you have certain rights if your flight is cancelled or delayed.

So definitely look those up before you fly.

What kind of rights? Refunds? Compensation?

Yeah. If you're flight is delayed or cancelled, you basically have the right to be put on the next available flight.

You have the right to be given a refund.

And there are certain rules around - the airline has to maybe put you up in a hotel if it's going to be more than 12 hours, say.

And to Ruta's point about passengers paying extra for the fuel, ticket prices have gone up in lots of different airlines.

Are we footing the bill?

So if you've already paid for your flight, you're probably fine.

Airlines can't add an extra surcharge onto a ticket that you've already paid for, unless it's in their T's & C's (terms and conditions) that they have the right to do that.

But that tends not to be the norm. Flight prices are going up.

But as I say, like they tend to go up and down, particularly over the summer in the northern hemisphere for all sorts of reasons.

Generally speaking, with flights, a good rule is to book as soon as you can, because the closer you get to the actual day of flying, it tends to get more expensive.

And we have been asking you to send in video notes.

This is from Natsumi, who's also worried about the rising price of tickets.

Hi, I'm Natsumi, I'm from Aichi Prefecture in Japan and I'm currently working in Tokyo. I'm worried about the fuel shortage.

This is because the flight ticket got more expensive and it's harder to see my friends and family abroad.

I feel less connected to the world.

Emer, another question that is on people's minds that we've been seeing online, are flights more likely to be cancelled if you're flying with a low cost or a budget airline.

And is there a difference if it's long haul versus short haul?

So one thing that has been happening is a lot of airlines are looking more carefully at their long haul flights because they're more fuel efficient. And normally you can get away with a long haul flight that's not completely full.

With short haul flights, especially with budget airlines, they're not profitable if they're not full or nearly full.

So as I say, under normal circumstances, a lot of budget airlines will cancel flights and put the passengers onto the next one, if it's, say, less than half full.

So if you're flying short haul for a summer holiday, you're probably fine.

As I say, it is always worth checking the airlines kind of T's & C's, their policies around cancellation.

Check what your rights are based on where you are.

But a lot of the time with those busy summer holiday routes, the next flight might just be two hours away.

So if they put you on to the next flight, there are obviously inconveniences if you have to pick up a car, if you have to check into a hotel, but you may not be waiting, you know, another week to get home or to get to your holiday.

And some people might be thinking, maybe I shouldn't get a plane at all at the moment? Is it just planes and jet fuel that are affected or are other forms of transport affected too?

So basically, any form of transport that uses fuel that's made from crude oil will be affected because crude oil is used to make all these different products like petrol and diesel.

Different governments are taking different approaches to kind of potential shortages or rising prices.

So in India, prices for petrol and diesel actually haven't gone up that much because the government intervened.

Two states in Australia actually made public transport free for a time.

So again, it really just depends on where you are.

And some people might be thinking, you know, from a sustainability, from an environmental angle, that actually, this might be good for the environment.

And we got a comment from Mo who said that less air traffic is going to be a real boom for the planet. How true is that?

So aviation accounts for 2.5% of all carbon emissions, and that's projected to go up by 2050 if changes aren't made, if aviation fuel doesn't become more sustainable.

But only 1% of the world's population is responsible for more than half of passenger emissions.

And a lot of people have never taken a flight in their lives.

This isn't going to be like Covid, where all planes, all flights ground to a halt.

It all depends really on when the Strait of Hormuz opens up, if it doesn't open up in the next few weeks or even months, we could see more flights starting to get cancelled.

But we really just don't know at the moment.

And we don't know if this particular disruption is going to have an effect on the amount of flights taken, the amount of emissions that are created by aviation fuel.

It really just depends on how much longer the Strait is closed.

And if planes are trying to fill them up - so no planes are flying half full because they want to try and save jet fuel.

Could that also be a good thing for the environment?

Is that something that planes, you know - why aren't they doing that already?

Well, some of them do. And particularly with budget airlines, as I said earlier, their sort of business model is really predicated on flights being full or almost full, because if you compare it with a long haul flight, you have your business passengers paying more.

You might also get paid for transporting cargo.

So what we might see is fewer long haul flights that are more full but for short haul flights and your budget airlines, they pretty much do operate at capacity already.

With all this conversation about the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and how crude oil has been affected, a lot of people are asking about alternatives to jet fuel.

Maybe even more sustainable ones like eco fuel.

Where are we at with that and other alternatives?

So there is a product called sustainable aviation fuel SAF, which is made from waste products like old cooking oil.

Really, really interesting development there.

But generally speaking, that's very early days.

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It's a very young kind of industry at the moment.

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It's much more expensive than jet fuel, so we probably won't see any kind of significant uptake of SAF in the near future, but hopefully it's going in that direction.

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I want to read you one more comment. This is something we got from Anita, who said, let's just stay home for six months.

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If the war ended tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, how long would it take to get flights back to normal?

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Can we say it could be a question of just six months?

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It's hard to put a figure on it because transporting oil, transporting oil products takes a really long time, and so it takes six weeks to get from the Strait of Hormuz to Europe normally.

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So there would still be some kind of questions around supply.

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So in Europe, they normally have at least 34 days supply of jet fuel.

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At the moment it's 30. And if it goes down to I think 23, that's when the airlines will really start worrying about, 'Could our pumps literally dry up?' That's not happening at the moment.

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But the longer the Strait stays closed, the more of a possibility that will become. So if the if the Strait opened tomorrow, the shortages worry would certainly ease.

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But because of that time lag with refining refining the crude oil into usable products like jet fuel, there would still be some probably price pressures as the airlines deal with less access to jet fuel than they normally have.

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Emer we know that a lot of people are really concerned about this.

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Thank you for answering our questions.

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Thank you very much.

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That's it from me today. Thank you so much for joining us, and we hope you have a pleasant onward journey. I'm Hannah Gelbart.

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This is What in the World from the BBC World Service.

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