Shadowing-Übung: Unemployment jumps, raising the chances of an economic downturn | The Business | ABC NEWS - Englisch Sprechen Lernen mit YouTube

C1
I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
⏸ Pausiert
124 Sätze
Wenn Sätze zu kurz oder zu lang sind, klicke auf Edit, um sie anzupassen.
1
I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
2
And I think it is telling us
3
that the labour market is starting to show some cracks because the economy is tipping into a downturn.
4
Paul Bloxham, a significant tick up in the unemployment rate.
5
It's risen much faster than the RBA would have expected at this point.
6
Well that's right and I think also a fall in employment in the numbers for April.
7
And I think that's another signal indicator that we have that tells us that the economy is weakening quite quickly,
8
that we're going into a downturn.
9
I think I would add that to the sharp fall we've seen in business confidence,
10
the weakening we've seen in consumer sentiment,
11
the fact that auction clearance rates have fallen,
12
and there's even some indications that house prices on a very timely basis are starting to fall as well.
13
So, we need to have a downturn in Australia,
14
it turns out, to get inflation down.
15
And I think it's already starting.
16
And I think these numbers are just one more part of that picture.
17
it comes to the monthly unemployment series it is notoriously volatile
18
so could this just be noise or do you think it's a genuine weakening of the jobs market?
19
I think you're right that this survey is quite volatile
20
and month to month we can't put too much weight ever on any one monthly indication from it
21
but I think when you look at it in the context of all the other indicators
22
that we've got the ones that I've just listed off
23
that are all pointing in the same direction all telling you that the economy is weakening and has weakened quite quickly,
24
then you add this into that picture,
25
I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
26
And I think it is telling us
27
that the labour market is starting to show some cracks because the economy is tipping into a downturn.
28
Has this come faster than many would have expected?
29
That's true, although we've been forecasting that GDP would contract in the second quarter of this year.
30
We haven't got that print yet.
31
We don't get it till September,
32
but that's been our forecast now for a couple of months.
33
And we've done that on the basis of the economy having faced two shocks at once.
34
One shock, of course, has been the RBA lifting interest rates in three consecutive meetings,
35
lifting rates by 75 basis points.
36
That's a shock.
37
And then, of course, there's the Middle East conflict shock,
38
which has flowed through to us through higher fuel costs,
39
but also having a big impact on sentiment.
40
And I think the combination of those two shocks together has
41
been what we really thought would push the economy into a sort of downturn more quickly.
42
I'll pick you up on that downturn bit in a second.
43
But in terms of this particular data point,
44
we've seen market bets for rate hikes in June scaled back,
45
not that they were significant to start with.
46
What does it do to your outlook for interest rates?
47
We think and have thought till this point also
48
that the RBA isn't going to have to lift interest rates any further
49
that although inflation is high and that's obviously a really big focus for them,
50
they've already lifted interest rates three times,
51
they're already getting signs that it's having a pretty decent impact on the economy
52
and we've got a global effect flowing through from the Middle East conflict
53
which is also driving the economy into more of a downswing.
54
So we think although the RBA won't be able to cut interest rates in the face of this downturn,
55
I think that they won't be necessarily deciding to want to lift them any further either.
56
Once the labour market turns,
57
I think the RBA tends to sit still rather than want to hit the economy even harder.
58
So you've mentioned the word downturn a number of times now.
59
What does that look like?
60
Are we talking recession?
61
Well, it depends on what you mean by recession.
62
I genuinely mean that.
63
There's no consistent definition of what we mean as economists by recession as such.
64
But what we've got in mind is
65
that growth slows down from 2.6% last year where it was running to 1% this year.
66
We do see a contraction in GDP in the second quarter of this year
67
and we think that'll all combine to push the unemployment rate up further
68
and we see the unemployment rate rising to 5% by the middle of next year.
69
So that's not a great set of outcome really in the scheme of things,
70
but it's the sort of thing we sort of need to have
71
if we're going to get inflation back to target over a reasonable time period.
72
And you think if the unemployment rate goes to 5%,
73
we'll get inflation back to target?
74
I think that this will put a disinflationary impulse into the Australian economy
75
that will gradually move inflation back towards the Reserve Bank's target over an extended period.
76
I mean, the first thing we've got is we've still got more upside to come through in terms of inflation
77
because of the shock that's coming from higher fuel costs and the closure of the Strait of Humors.
78
So inflation goes up before it goes down,
79
but I think this will be enough to get the RBA to sit still.
80
How much of a risk is it that Australia is facing a prolonged period of rising unemployment and rising inflation,
81
creating a really big conundrum for the RBA?
82
Well, this is the word that we all talk about in the background and that's stagflation.
83
What is the risk of stagflation?
84
By stagflation we mean a stagnant economy where growth doesn't do very much,
85
in fact it might even fall,
86
where the unemployment rate remains higher and of course we've still got inflation.
87
I don't think we're quite there yet as to sort of thinking that that's our central case,
88
but I can say that that is starting to become more
89
and more of a risk in terms of the way we're looking at things.
90
And do you think in that scenario the RBA prioritises inflation over the unemployment rate?
91
This puts the RBA in a very tough spot.
92
And I think in terms of the choices they might decide to make,
93
I think that they will look very carefully at the fact
94
that they've got a dual mandate to keep as close to full employment as possible but still get inflation down.
95
And I think my working assumption is that they,
96
at least in recent times,
97
have generally prioritised keeping close to full employment.
98
So I think while inflation is a challenge,
99
if inflation starts to look like it's heading back to target over time in an underlying sense,
100
I think that will stop the RBA from slamming the economy even harder.
101
And, I mean, you mentioned the conflict in the Middle East,
102
the rate rises, we've seen consumer sentiment,
103
business confidence, all of those kind of indicators pretty negative.
104
How much of the economic outlook,
105
I suppose, is contingent on this Middle East conflict ending soon?
106
Well, so it's a big factor.
107
I mean, and this is something global markets are watching so carefully at the moment.
108
And it's a lot to do with,
109
of course, how long does the Strait of Hummus remain closed?
110
How closed does it remain?
111
We've seen over the last day or so,
112
So a few ships have been getting through.
113
So what does all that look like and what sort of supply disruption does that deliver to the global system?
114
It's partly about oil, it's about gas,
115
but it's also about fertiliser and helium and sulphur and aluminium,
116
all these things that we get out of the Middle East.
117
The longer it goes on,
118
the more likely it's going to deliver weaker growth outcomes and more and more inflation.
119
And it's very difficult to know exactly how long it's going to go on,
120
but it's been going on now for almost 12 weeks.
121
So it's already having tangible effects.
122
Paul Bloxham, thank you.
123
Thank you.
124
Thank you.

App herunterladen

KI-Bewertung für jeden gesprochenen Satz

Zum Download scannen
Zum Download scannen
Download on theApp Store
Get it onGoogle Play
TRENDING

Beliebt

Warum sollten Sie mit diesem Video sprechen üben?

Das Üben des Sprechens mit diesem Video bietet Ihnen die Möglichkeit, sich aktiv mit einem aktuellen Thema auseinanderzusetzen, das viele Menschen betrifft: die Arbeitslosigkeit und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft. Indem Sie die Gedanken und Analysen der Sprecher nachsprechen, verbessern Sie nicht nur Ihre Aussprache, sondern gewinnen auch ein besseres Verständnis für wirtschaftliche Zusammenhänge. Das Englisch lernen mit YouTube ermöglicht es Ihnen, sich in einem natürlichen Kontext mit relevanten Inhalten auseinanderzusetzen und Ihren Wortschatz kontinuierlich zu erweitern. Sie können die Informationen des Videos nutzen, um Ihre eigenen Meinungen zu bilden und sie zu diskutieren, was Ihre mündlichen Fähigkeiten weiter fördert.

Grammatik & Ausdrücke im Kontext

Im Video werden verschiedene Schlüsselstrukturen verwendet, die für das Englisch sprechen üben nützlich sind:

  • "It's risen much faster than expected" – Diese Struktur zeigt den Vergleich und die Überraschung über unerwartete Veränderungen auf. Beachten Sie die Verwendung von "much" zur Verstärkung.
  • "...telling you that the economy is weakening quite quickly" – Hier wird die indirekte Rede verwendet, um Beobachtungen zu teilen. Dies ist nützlich, um eigene Gedanken auszudrücken.
  • "I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal" – Diese Formulierung fordert den Zuhörer zur aktiven Teilnahme auf und motiviert zur Analyse der Informationen.

Diese Ausdrücke helfen nicht nur beim Verstehen, sondern sind auch direkt anwendbar, wenn Sie Ihre eigenen Argumente formulieren.

Gemeinsame Aussprachefallen

Einige Wörter und Phrasen in diesem Video können herausfordernd sein. Hier sind einige hervorzuhebende Punkte:

  • "unemployment" – Achten Sie auf die richtige Betonung. Viele Lernende neigen dazu, die Silben ungleichmäßig zu betonen.
  • "economic downturn" – Die Verbindung der Wörter kann schwierig sein. Üben Sie, die Silben fließend auszusprechen, ohne Pausen zu machen.
  • "business confidence" – Merken Sie sich, dass die Betonung auf dem ersten Wort liegt, was in der gesprochenen Sprache oft übersehen wird.

Indem Sie diese Wörter regelmäßig im Rahmen des shadow speaks üben, werden Sie sicherer in Ihrer Aussprache und können typische Fehler vermeiden. Nutzen Sie Ressourcen wie shadowspeaks, um Ihre Fähigkeiten weiter zu entwickeln und Ihr englisches Sprechen zu verfeinern.

Was ist die Shadowing-Technik?

Shadowing ist eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Sprachlerntechnik, die ursprünglich für die professionelle Dolmetscherausbildung entwickelt und durch den Polyglotten Dr. Alexander Arguelles populär gemacht wurde. Die Methode ist einfach aber wirkungsvoll: Du hörst englisches Audio von Muttersprachlern und wiederholst es sofort laut — wie ein Schatten, der dem Sprecher mit nur 1–2 Sekunden Verzögerung folgt. Anders als passives Hören oder Grammatikübungen zwingt Shadowing dein Gehirn und deine Mundmuskulatur, gleichzeitig echte Sprachmuster zu verarbeiten und zu reproduzieren. Studien zeigen, dass es Aussprachegenauigkeit, Intonation, Rhythmus, verbundene Sprache, Hörverständnis und Sprechflüssigkeit signifikant verbessert — was es zu einer der effektivsten Methoden für die IELTS Speaking-Vorbereitung und reale englische Kommunikation macht.

☕ Kauf uns einen Kaffee