शैडोइंग अभ्यास: Rising prices, empty tanks: Energy shock dampens Asia's boom | DW News - YouTube के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

The energy crisis cannot be overlooked in Asia.

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The energy crisis cannot be overlooked in Asia.

The problems in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting the region particularly hard.

That's because a large part of their energy imports comes from the Gulf states, but no longer.

The economic consequences are considerable.

Supply bottlenecks, long queues at petrol stations, and production stoppages.

In some countries, even the rice harvest is at stake at stake.

At the very least, prices are rising.

If the conflict continues, a region that has previously enjoyed dynamic growth could abruptly slow down.

In a scenario in which disruptions to energy markets persist into early next year,

kind of a worst case scenario,

regional growth would be lower by 1.3 percentage points over the period 2026 to 2027,

and inflation would be 3.2 percentage points higher.

India, for example, must import almost 90% of its crude oil,

and much of this comes from the Gulf states,

as does around three-quarters of its imported gas.

Oil and gas are now in short supply.

Restrictions have been imposed on industrial use,

a disaster for energy-intensive industries such as glass production.

When there is a 20 percent drop in the gas supply,

it forces us to cut production by about 40 percent,

because our furnace was made to operate at a specific fuel level to function efficiently.

So we are operating at a 40 percent reduction of our production capacity.

The Indian government says the energy supply is secure,

but prices are rising dramatically.

have had to close due to lack of gas.

And although India is expanding renewable energies,

the supply shortage is again making coal more important.

You can see what is happening in our kitchens in rural India.

Now, because we don't have energy to that extent,

it's not reaching the villages,

they're shifting to corn, which is very bad.

But what can you do?

You have to cook your corn.

So therefore, it is that in immediate future,

and if these conditions prevail,

perhaps the use of fossil fuels like coal is going to go up.

Bangladesh has been one of the country's hit hardest.

Diesel has also had to be rationed there, even for farmers.

Farmers really need a lot of fuel this season for their rice paddy irrigation.

The government has set guidelines that we're sticking to,

but we know it's not enough for the farmers.

There's nothing left for this rice farmer today.

Like everyone else, he needs diesel for his water pumps.

The young rice plants development depends on irrigation.

Many fields are already too dry, he says.

Is there a threat of crop failure and famine?

In the ASEAN states, almost 40% of oil imports come from the Gulf region,

as do 62% of gas imports.

And now?

When LNG prices go haywire and countries are simply unable to afford or unable to procure available LNG cargos,

they're going to turn to alternative fuels for short-term responses.

And in many cases, that's been coal,

like we're seeing right now.

So more reliance on coal in the short term,

but not every country has it.

And other fossil fuels such as gas and oil now seem less secure.

Is this a chance for renewables?

The only good thing, or in the long run,

it is that somewhere, the renewable energy will become more affordable.

And the moment it becomes more or even it's able to compete or it becomes cheaper than the conventional,

then the next step will be what is the capex.

The midterm will be the subsidies shifting towards that

and long term will be that everyone will move towards renewable sources of energy.

In the long term, the crisis could therefore benefit renewables.

But not everywhere.

Every country has different needs.

Japan, for example, imports much of its energy from the Gulf region.

It has hardly any raw materials,

but as an industrialised nation,

it needs a lot of energy.

Japan is already trying to become less dependent.

But the expansion of offshore wind power has not worked as planned.

Investors withdrew.

More than 10 years after the Fukushima disaster,

nuclear energy is also set to be expanded again,

but the reactors are old.

Despite its support for Ukraine,

Japan feels compelled to participate in a Russian LNG plant.

In the current crisis, however,

the Prime Minister is promising the equivalent of $10 billion in support for the region.

Thailand has suffered a price shock.

Its entire energy supply depends almost solely on imports.

Thailand has only little coal,

so it mainly uses gas for power production,

but you need oil for mobility.

So, and for many industries,

of course, for logistics, for the agricultural sector,

which is very huge and important here,

for fisheries and people working in this area now,

they feel the pinch immediately.

The same applies to the Philippines,

where President Marcos declared an energy emergency back in March.

The government promises subsidies even to secure the food supply.

People protested the Iran war in front of the US embassy.

The Philippines wants to further expand renewable energies.

But it also wants an exemption from sanctions in the short term to import oil from Russia.

The price shock is also being cushioned in Indonesia,

with gas prices already lower.

But rumours of price increases are making the population and politicians worry.

100

These emerging economies like Indonesia are very vulnerable actually to higher prices.

101

So many, many politicians fear demonstrations when the prices go up.

102

So what Indonesia is currently doing,

103

even as the world market prices go up,

104

they double down on subsidies just to keep the people calm.

105

The cost is estimated at almost $6 billion for 2026.

106

How long can this be endured?

107

In Indonesia, it's about prices, not energy shortages.

108

Its electricity is mainly generated from its huge coal deposits,

109

which it also exports.

110

Demand had actually fallen.

111

Indonesia's biggest coal export destination is China.

112

And one of the reasons Indonesia panicked about its coal market and tried to reduce the output this year

113

is that China import of coal start to plateau because they're absorbing a lot of renewable capacity.

114

Now, during the energy crisis,

115

coal is back in demand in Asia in the short term.

116

But for how long?

117

And how is the crisis affecting the region?

118

I really think that the whole of the Asia-Pacific region,

119

Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia,

120

including China, is at a massive decision moment now with this latest crisis in the Middle East.

121

Do they go down the road route of becoming electrotech advanced modern economies relying on solar PV,

122

on battery storage, on electric vehicles,

123

on other high-end electrical equipment such as heat pumps and so on?

124

Or do they stay in the old world and remain dependent on different types of fossil fuels,

125

whether that be oil, gas or coal.

126

A decisive moment also for South Korea,

127

which has been badly affected by the energy crisis.

128

It wants to import more coal and gas from Indonesia in the short term.

129

The government also says it intends to expand renewable energies.

130

Away from politics, the energy crisis is already affecting the packaging industry.

131

Plastic packaging cannot be produced without petroleum.

132

We're seeing a rise in raw material prices and delays in supply,

133

which means we can't manufacture our products.

134

But his competitor is profiting.

135

Here, the packaging is made mainly of paper.

136

At first, we started developing paper packaging in response to growing eco-friendly,

137

sustainability and ESG considerations and client demand has increased steadily.

138

With ongoing disruptions to the plastic supply,

139

we expect further growth in demand for our paper and other alternative materials.

140

Is anything changing in the region?

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After all, according to estimates,

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Southeast Asia is responsible for around a third of the world's plastic waste.

143

And China?

144

It's the world's largest oil importer,

145

but it buys from various regions and has built up large reserves.

146

Despite the energy crisis, the International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.4% growth for China for 2026.

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The year has started strongly and… We also have sizable policy support that the authorities are providing,

148

which again is boosting growth.

149

So the impact of the war is being mitigated by these factors.

150

China has also been an early adopter of renewable energies

151

and is now a global pioneer in the construction of wind and solar power plants.

152

Is it a role model for eternal competitor India?

153

They are much bigger and in fact their technologies are great in terms of pricing,

154

the way they have reduced the cost of solar panels and so on.

155

So, I mean, we should follow there might still be something

156

but

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if they can do it why can't we do it what

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will the energy crisis mean for southeast asia it's still too early to say definitively

159

but it seems certain that energy demand will grow forecasts predict that the region will need 60 percent more energy by 2040.

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