शैडोइंग अभ्यास: U.S. excludes Canada from trade talks with Mexico - YouTube के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

We're about a month away now from Canada Day,

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We're about a month away now from Canada Day,

also the review deadline for Kuzma.

Our next guest warns that Canada shouldn't be in a hurry to come to new terms

if big sacrifices are part of them.

Let's go to John Weeks.

He's a member of the expert group on Canada-U.S relations,

former NAFTA chief negotiator.

John, thanks for joining us.

Thank you, Mirella.

Good to be with you.

How do you interpret that Canada is not even in the room for the discussions going on between the U.S and Mexico?

I don't know.

I think we should be there.

And, you know, they've said that these are basically technical discussions.

But in the end, a trade negotiation is made up of a whole series of technical discussions,

plus some high-level diplomacy.

And I think you need to be there for all the parts of it.

So I think we should be trying to make sure that Canadian negotiators are in the room for what's going on now.

Because what happens there will likely mean some pressure on Canadian negotiators,

perhaps to give up more than they want to.

Well, I think the first problem is that,

you know, they've said that the Mexicans and the Americans,

they issued a press release saying they're having technical discussions on,

including on major industrial sectors.

And I understand that they're actually talking about how they might improve the rules of origin,

improve in quotes.

in the automobile sector.

So that's definitely something of major interest to Canada.

And if they start developing some ideas about how to put these different,

you know, for changing the rules,

then we may have an uphill battle to try and change it to make sure our interests are taken account of.

Yeah.

So basically, just to loop the viewers in a little bit more,

they're looking at how much of an automobile,

for example, would come from American,

well, both American resources and, I guess, American workers.

And that could significantly affect Canada's contribution.

Is the auto industry, you think,

the biggest focus of these discussions?

Well, I think that is one of the biggest places where Canada stands to be put at some risk.

But I think, you know,

potentially it's going to cover a number of other sectors, too.

You know, we still have major tariffs in place on aluminum and steel products, for instance.

So that's a big problem as well.

You talk about the fortress North America approach.

Can you explain a little bit about how that works and why that could also be a problem for Ottawa?

Well, I think what the Americans would like us to do is,

particularly in a number of major industrial sectors is agree to erect trade barriers against countries outside North America

and in exchange for having lower tariff barriers inside North America.

They haven't been clear about whether we'd still get back to

the real free trade conditions we had with the United States earlier.

And I think the problem here is if we start erecting trade barriers against other countries,

like the European Union or our partners in the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

we may well, you know,

that'll violate our obligations under that agreement,

and we'll have repercussions for the kind of trade relationship we have with them.

So this is really possibly we get into a fortress North America situation

and we make it much more difficult for Canada to diversify its trade relations with other countries.

Can you be a little specific about what sectors that would pose a problem for?

I know we're sending more energy and we now are getting more energy contracts with other countries,

as you mentioned, European Union, China, maybe India.

So I'm wondering if there are certain sectors that it would be hurt more by that fortress North America idea.

Well, I think one I think the government should should be

honest with Canadians about where it would be prepared to contemplate a fortress North America approach,

because potentially this this could be a big a big problem in a number of areas.

And basically, any area where you start creating a fortress in North America,

it's going to create problems for us in our relations with other countries.

So, you know, I think to some extent,

China's perhaps been the biggest focus in thinking about adopting this approach.

But there's certainly been no assurance that it would be limited to China.

Wondering if Canada can delay the negotiations.

Midterms are in November, of course.

There could be a change in the power balance in Washington.

But the second part of that question,

of course, is can our economy withstand a delay?

Well, I think, you know,

obviously we're under a lot of pressure.

Some sectors are in real difficulty right now,

and I think we need to do what we can do to try to alleviate that pressure or eliminate it.

But it's not clear that we can do that very easily,

and maybe not at all.

And I think that the question is,

do we want to enter a new deal with the United States now that would be less favorable than KUSMA,

the current agreement that we have,

and that we would have duty,

we would agree to having duties applied to us?

Or is it better to be constructive in the talks,

but not be in a big hurry to conclude them,

because I think there's some prospect that Trump's trade policy is really under pressure in the United States.

And I think, you know,

with the run-up to the midterms elections and what can possibly come out of those elections,

it's quite likely we'll see some shifts in American trade policy in terms of what they would actually like to see happen.

And that could create more conditions in which we would have a better shot at getting a reasonable deal.

John Weeks, and we'll leave it there,

sir, but appreciate your time.

Thank you.

Thank you, Muriel.

It's pretty complicated.

Yeah, I know that it is.

100

Thank you for your time.

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