शैडोइंग अभ्यास: What Trump's victory means for the world - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service - YouTube के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

Hello, I'm Lucy Hawkins.

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Hello, I'm Lucy Hawkins.

From the BBC World Service,

this is The Global Story.

Donald Trump is the winner in what could be the most consequential US presidential election in recent history.

His victory comes in the context of multiple ongoing conflicts around the world and persistent instability in major global economies.

International leaders are flocking to congratulate Mr Trump,

but how might their governments be reacting behind closed doors?

Today we're considering how the newly minted President-elect could make his presence felt in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine

and the Middle East, in China, Europe and beyond.

With me today is our diplomatic correspondent James Landau.

Hi James.

Hi.

And what a result.

Came quicker than many thought it would.

It's a surprise for many,

but I know you've been speaking to diplomats around the world,

embassies and residences around the world this week,

and I wonder what you think the reaction is to this result.

I think inevitably there's going to be a sense of shock simply because when you've been listening to the broadcast,

listening to the pollsters, telling everybody it's knife edge,

you know, touch and go,

don't know which way it's going to go.

To have such a decisive result as this is clearly going to come as a surprise.

Do I think the victory of Donald Trump has come as a surprise?

No, I think everybody has been realistic enough to know that this has always been a very clear possibility.

And preparing for it.

Well, the question is, that's a really good point.

Have they been preparing for it?

I've spoken to a lot of European diplomats about this,

and they all say, yes,

no, we must prepare for it.

And then I say, well, what are you doing?

Well, we can't anticipate it because we'll be annoying the previous incumbent if you start making assumptions about elections.

And, you know, we have to leave it up to the Americans to make their own decisions.

I think there is genuinely a sense that certainly in the European diplomatic world

that not enough has been done to so-called Trump-proof Europe from this future presidency.

OK, we're going to get into Trump proofing foreign policy and take a whistle stop tour around the globe for this episode.

And the conflict that comes to mind straight away,

James, of course, is Ukraine as it continues to battle Russia's ongoing invasion.

Remind us what Donald Trump has said before about the war in Ukraine

and what he'll do to bring an end to it.

Well, the first thing I always say is there's quite often a gap between what Donald Trump says and what he does.

And sometimes what he says can be contradictory.

so it's not always a good predictor of what he actually intends to do because sometimes it's part of a negotiating ploy.

Sometimes it's just difficult to work out because,

as I say, the statements are contradictory.

However, he has made it pretty clear that he wants this war to end.

He wants to be part of the process of making that war end.

He's spoken of doing a deal.

He's spoken of making calls to both President Zelensky and to President Putin.

during this period now when he's president-elect,

i.e. before he actually enters the White House,

he wants there to be some kind of a deal.

There's an expectation that US support will diminish in the long term.

The question is, what is the pace of that while any kind of talk of a deal,

a peace settlement, comes into play?

Let's bring you the reaction from Kiev.

Here's our Ukraine correspondent, James Waterhouse.

It is hard to see what security guarantees Ukraine can get to secure its long-term future.

That's certainly the argument from here.

But President Zelensky has a knack of when there are political difficulties,

when the war isn't going his way and it hasn't been for some time.

He tries to leverage this into future assurances and commitments from his allies,

and it will be no different with Donald Trump.

Our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg is in Sochi with this assessment.

Well, it feels like the Kremlin is going out of its way to give the impression

that it's not excited at all by Donald Trump's victory.

A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov,

said that, as far as he knows,

Vladimir Putin has no plans to congratulate Donald Trump.

He said America is an unfriendly country which is involved directly and indirectly in a war with Russia.

Can I ask you about the relationships in this picture

and what difference that might make? we've already had a response from President Zelensky.

How would you describe the relationship between President Trump and President Zelensky?

And can we learn anything from that reaction that we've had already?

There is a relationship.

I wouldn't say it's very close.

I wouldn't say it's terribly warm.

What was interesting, what President Zelensky has said in response to the victory of Mr. Trump is

that he spoke of the importance

and how much Ukraine relies on what he called a strong bipartisan support of the United States.

And he also sort of hinted that,

look, a powerful Ukrainian army could play a role in European security.

In other words, he essentially made the argument to Mr. Trump,

I need your support.

But you know what?

I can also give some of that support back.

I know you want Europe to step up more on its defence front.

I could potentially help with that.

That was the message he was sending.

But, you know, let's not beat about the Russia.

The Ukrainians are very, very concerned about the uncertainty,

what a Trump presidency would involve.

And one of the things they're concerned about,

surely, is the fact that President Trump has been very warm towards President Putin at times.

We know he's an admirer of Vladimir Putin.

And he said as such,

while standing shoulder to shoulder with Mr Zelensky when they did a little photo op in New York.

So we have a very good relationship,

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and I also have a very good relationship,

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as you know, with President Putin.

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And I think if we win,

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I think we're going to get it resolved very quickly very work.

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I really think we're going to get it.

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I think we have more good relations.

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Oh, I see.

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You know, Mr. Trump likes to do a deal.

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He likes to trade.

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He wants to do a deal,

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but he doesn't want to be seen to be rolling over to the Kremlin's demands.

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That is the crucial point.

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That is absolutely the crucial point.

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And that's why Mr. Putin's attitude is really crucial here.

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Because if Vladimir Putin reaches the conclusion,

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now is not the time for me to do a deal.

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I'm making gains in the East.

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And so the question is then, what happens then?

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If Mr. Trump has put forward a deal and said,

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let's bang heads together.

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And the Russians say, no,

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we'll just carry on fighting.

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At that point, does Donald Trump say,

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OK, I'm going to give some more long range missiles to the Ukrainians.

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And you know what?

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I'm going to let them deep fire into Russia as deep as they want to go,

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far as they want to go.

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Donald Trump does not fear escalation as much as Joe Biden and his national security adviser,

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Jake Sullivan, do.

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Is another worry for the Ukrainians,

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not just President Trump in charge,

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but also what's happening with Congress,

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that actually, you know, they are making decisions on how much support to give Ukraine,

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how much money to send Ukraine as well.

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And we've seen a massive tilt back to the Republicans.

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Yeah, I mean, that will be a strategic blockage in the long run

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that will make it harder to get these things through.

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It's likely during President Biden's lame duck period,

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he will use every sort of legal presidential power he's got

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outside of Congress to keep as much money flowing to Ukraine as he can.

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But once President Trump takes office,

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once the new Congress is established,

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yes, I think you're absolutely right, it will get harder.

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Because there is a mechanism,

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isn't there, for President Biden to release $5 billion?

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Yes, a chunk of funds.

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You can do a chunk of funds.

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The question for Europeans is what can and should we do to fill that gap left by the Americans?

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We'll get on to Europe in a moment,

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but let's turn to the other big conflict,

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which is the Middle East.

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Israel continuing its war with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon

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and it remains unclear the extent to which direct engagement between Israel and Iran may continue to escalate as well, James.

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But he's pretty popular in Israel, President Trump.

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So, yeah, the Israelis are happy and not just the Netanyahu government.

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I think, you know, Israelis in general thought

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that they basically had a fairer crack of the whip under Donald Trump than they did in Joe Biden,

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who they always saw as a sort of,

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you know, an American who was always saying,

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well, please don't do this and please don't do that.

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The problem is this.

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When Donald Trump was in power last time,

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there was no war in the Middle East.

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There is now.

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The world has changed.

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And so the question, the immediate question now is,

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if in the next few weeks,

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Benjamin Netanyahu says, right, I now want to target Iran's nuclear facilities,

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something that the Biden administration has been very,

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very firm about saying, no,

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no, no, we are not going to support you in this.

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But there's a real question now is,

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will Donald Trump allow Israel a freer hand to fight the war in a way that it can't at the moment?

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Lots of people say the Americans have not been restraining Israel enough,

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but there has been some restraint.

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Will that change under Donald Trump?

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Or will he, as he as he has said,

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be a peacemaker and say,

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I don't want to get involved in other people's wars?

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He might try and do both.

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He might say to the Israelis,

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I'm going to give you a free hand to complete it,

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to finish it, to bring it to a close.

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Our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette,

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is in Jerusalem, and she's been assessing the reaction of Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

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It's significant that the Israeli prime minister,

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Benjamin Netanyahu, has become one of the first foreign leaders to speak to Donald Trump.

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And the Israeli readout of their conversation,

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which was described as warm and cordial,

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is said to have discussed Israel's security, including the Iranian threat.

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Donald Trump has often urged Israel to,

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in his words, finish the job.

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We'll soon find out exactly what he means.

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It remains to be seen,

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too, how much leverage Donald Trump will have over Benjamin Netanyahu because no one else has had much so far.

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Correct.

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And with all these things,

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any sense of personal slight,

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any sense of being ignored,

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suddenly the calculation can change.

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Because with Mr. Trump, the lesson we learnt from his first term is personality is as important as policy.

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James, what about the wider region?

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They were pretty quick for Gulf states to come out and congratulate Donald Trump as well,

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given what we saw with the Abraham Accords,

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but also some of the things,

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the relationship that they've been building up with the US.

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Are they going to be happy

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I think they will like the fact that Donald Trump will want to clearly step up pressure on Iran.

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It's one thing that he's been quite vocal about in a relatively foreign policy free election campaign.

209

We know that Donald Trump has spoken about trying to sort of come up with the Abraham Accords Mark II.

210

In other words, the elusive deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel,

211

trying to normalise relations between those two countries.

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Now, it's still seen a long way away from the fighting that we're engaged in now.

213

You know, you need to have some sort of peace settlement,

214

some kind of ceasefire, some kind of exchange, some kind of stabilisation.

215

Then you might just be able to get to a place where you can talk about broader political deals.

216

Time to look at China, James.

217

And we know that relations between the two countries,

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they're not as bad as they were a couple of years ago.

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They are still pretty icy,

220

though, and they could be set to change in a big way because of Donald Trump's approach to China,

221

particularly when it comes to what he considers to be the unfair trade relationship.

222

What do you think that could mean in terms of the U.S and its relationship with China?

223

OK, the first point is that there are already trade frictions between China and the United States,

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and there would have been trade frictions too that would get deeper if Kamala Harris had been elected.

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So this is a bipartisan thing.

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So whatever Trump does would be a continuation of existing policy,

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but with rocket boosters underneath it.

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And by that primarily is his threat to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US market.

229

Now, if that's what he does,

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the potential there is for a trade war.

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And then the potential for a trade war that engulfs the global economy.

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Many countries around the world,

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if this happens, are going to have to make choices.

234

Do they go with the Chinese or do they go with the Americans on this?

235

because the Americans will put up a huge amount of pressure on all its allies to say,

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we're doing this, you've got to do likewise.

237

In many ways, a lot of America's allies sort of had a holiday from this

238

because of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East,

239

the run-up to this election.

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Those pressures, the electoral pressure is now gone,

241

and I think it's going to make some tough choices.

242

And Laura Bicker in Beijing told us the latest on the relationship between China and the US.

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Beijing will be bracing itself for the return of Donald Trump.

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And for one reason will be trade.

245

And that is because during the last Trump presidency,

246

trade put tariffs on around $300 billion of Chinese goods.

247

And he's threatening to do so again.

248

And James, in terms of regional security,

249

do we know where President Trump sees the US and its relationship with Taiwan

250

and supporting Taiwan possible intervention if there was a conflict.

251

It's incredibly hard.

252

It's incredibly hard to know that.

253

That is in part because the Americans don't want us to know.

254

They want there to be some strategic ambiguity over this.

255

But also, we don't know whether or not Donald Trump actually will live up to his word of saying,

256

I'm not going to start new wars.

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He loves to be the man who ends forever wars.

258

but equally is he somebody who's going to give up all US leadership in the world?

259

That's the really interesting question,

260

which is one that I don't think the Make America Great protectionism

261

and introspection of the first term ever really had to answer that question.

262

You mentioned Donald Trump and his way of thinking about America's place in the world.

263

When it comes to their more traditional allies,

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particularly here in Europe, It looks very different in Europe now than it did when he was president before.

265

When you think about the rise of some of the more right-leaning parties in European countries,

266

Emmanuel Macron is the only major,

267

I think, surviving world leader.

268

How do you think he's going to deal with this new Europe?

269

He will try and deal with Europe,

270

as he did before, on a bilateral basis, on a transactional basis.

271

He will try and peel everybody off so he can do separate trade.

272

deals as much as he can.

273

It's very hard within the European Union.

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And I think that he will continue to put more pressure on the Europeans to spend more on their own defense.

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And there'll be usual rumbles threatening NATO.

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I think the really interesting question is this,

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is the Trump presidency going to be the wake-up call that Europe has been needing,

278

a catalyst that essentially gets the Europeans to say,

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you know what, we've got to get off the pot and make some tough decisions about our own defence.

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What about economic growth in Europe?

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Is now the moment where Europe says, actually, you know what?

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In the face of this economic threat,

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if we are going to stay alive,

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We have to agree a new plan to make Europe more competitive.

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And thirdly, what about China?

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Europe is divided about China at the moment.

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Does the election of Trump change that thinking?

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Does it wake people up in Europe?

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Because at the moment, as I said at the beginning,

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there's a lot of people who haven't really prepared for this.

291

You briefly mentioned the fact that he's always angry that Europe's not paying its fair share when it comes to defence,

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and also that constant threat when he was last president that he would withdraw the US from NATO.

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Does he have more leverage this time around on those two things?

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I mean, do you think that NATO,

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the threat to withdraw from NATO,

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he could make good on?

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Or could he encourage countries and successfully make them pay for more?

298

Look, I think his driving force here is not some sort of ideological hatred of NATO or anything like that.

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It's just this sense that America is being taken for granted,

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that the Europeans are free riders.

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If the Europeans, as they have done,

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can address that by increasing their defence expenditure,

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which, you know, the numbers are creeping up.

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At the moment, every NATO member state has to spend 2% of their national wealth on defence.

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I think that target's going to have to go up.

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I think that's going to have to go up to 2.5%, maybe even 3%.

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Countries like Poland are already meeting that target,

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and so we'll be fine.

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The UK would be stretched.

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A lot of other countries in the south of Europe would really struggle to do that.

311

A lot of people think he's an isolationist,

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America First obviously being his sort of main platform.

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But do you actually imagine

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that America is going to retreat from its role as the world's leader on some of these big issues?

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When we also know that Donald Trump likes a deal.

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He likes to be seen to be making a deal.

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He said to people he wouldn't mind winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

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He has an ego.

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maybe he is the one to close the deal on things like Ukraine and the Middle East.

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The optimistic view is that,

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yes, he's a disruptor, he's a changemaker,

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he will generate fresh thinking on issues.

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It might be on Ukraine,

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it might be on the Middle East.

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And that therefore, instead of a sort of slow,

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gradual continuation of not quite giving enough support to Ukraine,

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not quite constraining Israel enough under the previous regime, that could change things.

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My own inclination is, you know,

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he will engage in things in the world where they matter to his voters at home.

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But the point is this,

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is the world has already noticed that U.S influence is declining.

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Countries around the world are forming more ad hoc relationships,

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partnerships, occasionally alliances with other countries around the world.

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And I think that Donald Trump will be quite happy for that to happen if it's nothing to do with him.

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But could his tactics possibly work?

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I mean, I have this great quote from him.

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I don't want them to know what I'm doing.

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He's talking about his allies, his adversaries, whoever.

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Part of my value is the perception by adversaries and allies that I am unpredictable.

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I mean, does he have this sort of huge strategic advantage that he just doesn't behave like anyone else I've negotiated with?

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That is an advantage that means that,

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you know,

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Mr. Putin will find it probably harder to work out what Donald Trump will do than he will with Joe Biden.

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Joe Biden has 40, 50 years worth of foreign policy baggage that allows you to know roughly where he's going to go,

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less so with Donald Trump.

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And I think that sense of uncertainty is useful in certain moments.

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But it's not a strategic advantage.

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If you are seen as a leader who will change his or her mind because of pressure,

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because of changing circumstances, because of what a tweet you've seen,

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then in that case, they will rely on that unpredictability unpredictability.

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And if you can base your assumption on that,

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then you can use that as a strategic gain when you're trying to negotiate with him or play him.

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We know what is predictable about Donald Trump is that he's transactional,

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he's bilateral, and he can be capricious.

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But what is unpredictable is the immediate decision-making processes that sometimes can go in unexpected places.

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It is going to be an interesting four years.

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It's going to be all right.

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James, thank you so much.

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Thank you very much.

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