シャドーイング練習: Unemployment jumps, raising the chances of an economic downturn | The Business | ABC NEWS - YouTubeで英語スピーキングを学ぶ
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I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
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I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
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And I think it is telling us
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that the labour market is starting to show some cracks because the economy is tipping into a downturn.
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Paul Bloxham, a significant tick up in the unemployment rate.
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It's risen much faster than the RBA would have expected at this point.
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Well that's right and I think also a fall in employment in the numbers for April.
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And I think that's another signal indicator that we have that tells us that the economy is weakening quite quickly,
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that we're going into a downturn.
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I think I would add that to the sharp fall we've seen in business confidence,
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the weakening we've seen in consumer sentiment,
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the fact that auction clearance rates have fallen,
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and there's even some indications that house prices on a very timely basis are starting to fall as well.
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So, we need to have a downturn in Australia,
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it turns out, to get inflation down.
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And I think it's already starting.
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And I think these numbers are just one more part of that picture.
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it comes to the monthly unemployment series it is notoriously volatile
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so could this just be noise or do you think it's a genuine weakening of the jobs market?
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I think you're right that this survey is quite volatile
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and month to month we can't put too much weight ever on any one monthly indication from it
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but I think when you look at it in the context of all the other indicators
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that we've got the ones that I've just listed off
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that are all pointing in the same direction all telling you that the economy is weakening and has weakened quite quickly,
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then you add this into that picture,
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I think you can take a little bit more information from this than normal.
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And I think it is telling us
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that the labour market is starting to show some cracks because the economy is tipping into a downturn.
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Has this come faster than many would have expected?
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That's true, although we've been forecasting that GDP would contract in the second quarter of this year.
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We haven't got that print yet.
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We don't get it till September,
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but that's been our forecast now for a couple of months.
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And we've done that on the basis of the economy having faced two shocks at once.
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One shock, of course, has been the RBA lifting interest rates in three consecutive meetings,
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lifting rates by 75 basis points.
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That's a shock.
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And then, of course, there's the Middle East conflict shock,
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which has flowed through to us through higher fuel costs,
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but also having a big impact on sentiment.
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And I think the combination of those two shocks together has
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been what we really thought would push the economy into a sort of downturn more quickly.
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I'll pick you up on that downturn bit in a second.
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But in terms of this particular data point,
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we've seen market bets for rate hikes in June scaled back,
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not that they were significant to start with.
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What does it do to your outlook for interest rates?
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We think and have thought till this point also
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that the RBA isn't going to have to lift interest rates any further
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that although inflation is high and that's obviously a really big focus for them,
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they've already lifted interest rates three times,
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they're already getting signs that it's having a pretty decent impact on the economy
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and we've got a global effect flowing through from the Middle East conflict
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which is also driving the economy into more of a downswing.
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So we think although the RBA won't be able to cut interest rates in the face of this downturn,
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I think that they won't be necessarily deciding to want to lift them any further either.
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Once the labour market turns,
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I think the RBA tends to sit still rather than want to hit the economy even harder.
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So you've mentioned the word downturn a number of times now.
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What does that look like?
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Are we talking recession?
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Well, it depends on what you mean by recession.
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I genuinely mean that.
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There's no consistent definition of what we mean as economists by recession as such.
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But what we've got in mind is
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that growth slows down from 2.6% last year where it was running to 1% this year.
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We do see a contraction in GDP in the second quarter of this year
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and we think that'll all combine to push the unemployment rate up further
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and we see the unemployment rate rising to 5% by the middle of next year.
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So that's not a great set of outcome really in the scheme of things,
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but it's the sort of thing we sort of need to have
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if we're going to get inflation back to target over a reasonable time period.
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And you think if the unemployment rate goes to 5%,
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we'll get inflation back to target?
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I think that this will put a disinflationary impulse into the Australian economy
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that will gradually move inflation back towards the Reserve Bank's target over an extended period.
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I mean, the first thing we've got is we've still got more upside to come through in terms of inflation
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because of the shock that's coming from higher fuel costs and the closure of the Strait of Humors.
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So inflation goes up before it goes down,
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but I think this will be enough to get the RBA to sit still.
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How much of a risk is it that Australia is facing a prolonged period of rising unemployment and rising inflation,
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creating a really big conundrum for the RBA?
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Well, this is the word that we all talk about in the background and that's stagflation.
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What is the risk of stagflation?
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By stagflation we mean a stagnant economy where growth doesn't do very much,
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in fact it might even fall,
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where the unemployment rate remains higher and of course we've still got inflation.
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I don't think we're quite there yet as to sort of thinking that that's our central case,
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but I can say that that is starting to become more
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and more of a risk in terms of the way we're looking at things.
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And do you think in that scenario the RBA prioritises inflation over the unemployment rate?
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This puts the RBA in a very tough spot.
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And I think in terms of the choices they might decide to make,
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I think that they will look very carefully at the fact
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that they've got a dual mandate to keep as close to full employment as possible but still get inflation down.
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And I think my working assumption is that they,
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at least in recent times,
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have generally prioritised keeping close to full employment.
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So I think while inflation is a challenge,
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if inflation starts to look like it's heading back to target over time in an underlying sense,
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I think that will stop the RBA from slamming the economy even harder.
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And, I mean, you mentioned the conflict in the Middle East,
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the rate rises, we've seen consumer sentiment,
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business confidence, all of those kind of indicators pretty negative.
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How much of the economic outlook,
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I suppose, is contingent on this Middle East conflict ending soon?
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Well, so it's a big factor.
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I mean, and this is something global markets are watching so carefully at the moment.
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And it's a lot to do with,
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of course, how long does the Strait of Hummus remain closed?
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How closed does it remain?
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We've seen over the last day or so,
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So a few ships have been getting through.
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So what does all that look like and what sort of supply disruption does that deliver to the global system?
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It's partly about oil, it's about gas,
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but it's also about fertiliser and helium and sulphur and aluminium,
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all these things that we get out of the Middle East.
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The longer it goes on,
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the more likely it's going to deliver weaker growth outcomes and more and more inflation.
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And it's very difficult to know exactly how long it's going to go on,
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but it's been going on now for almost 12 weeks.
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So it's already having tangible effects.
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Paul Bloxham, thank you.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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