シャドーイング練習: Why gold, bonds and the dollar are underwhelming investors | The Economist - YouTubeで英語スピーキングを学ぶ
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Looking at what's going on in the world, you might think investors would be flocking to their safe havens, but actually, it's been a brilliant few weeks for stock markets in a lot of the world there at all time highs or close to it, and it's been a great time if you're invested in shares lately.
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Looking at what's going on in the world, you might think investors would be flocking to their safe havens, but actually, it's been a brilliant few weeks for stock markets in a lot of the world there at all time highs or close to it, and it's been a great time if you're invested in shares lately.
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So, Josh, that's despite the Iran war causing one of the biggest oil shocks in history.
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What's going on?
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Yeah, it really does seem quite surprising on the face of it, because we've talked a lot about how bad this shot could be, how it's constricting the world's energy supply, how markets really aren't really prepared for it, and how economies are going to take quite a bit of damage from from the shock.
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And yet you've got all of this optimism in equity markets now.
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It's quite hard to second guess investors who have all the facts that their fingertips and kind of millions of dollars at stake, in some cases, billions of dollars at stake.
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And journalists are often accused of having predicted, you know, like nine out of the past four stock market crashes.
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So I don't want to lean too far in that direction.
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We're it could well be that right now investors are right.
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And the benefits from, for example, economic growth, the artificial intelligence revolution are just going to outweigh this Iran shock.
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That's certainly how they're acting.
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And is that where the optimism of these investors comes from?
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I think that's where some of it comes from.
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And there are other events that have happened recently that kind of support that the global economy and markets have proved to be a lot more resilient over the past few years than really anyone might have predicted before.
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We've had shock aftershock, whether it's Covid or Russia or Ukraine or the bank crisis we had in the US a few years ago.
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Each time it seemed like they might send share prices over a precipice, but each time share prices have plunged.
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It's been very short term.
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They've recovered incredibly quickly, and investors who've sold out when things seemed really bad actually just ended up missing out on the rebound.
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So perhaps this time with the Iran war, we're seeing some of the muscle memory of that come back.
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Investors not wanting to make the mistakes that they've made over the past few years be overly negative and then miss out on future gains.
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And is that warranted?
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I mean, we've talked again and again about how big a crisis this Yeah.
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So I do worry that this one time, that muscle memory, as well as it would have served you for several previous shocks, it doesn't seem to be the right response to this one, because we are looking at a at a permanent destruction of oil output.
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You know, the oil that already has not left the Strait of Hormuz is not going to suddenly be replaced.
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Even if it's reopened.
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There are going to be lots of knock on effects even once the war is over.
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And the end of that is not really in sight just yet.
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So it does seem like this time is different and could be a lot worse.
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But you know, that's not how shareholders are thinking at the And if possibly when investors do get spooked, where are the safe havens now?
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Now this is another really interesting feature of this moment, which is that investors usual safe havens don't look so safe.
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So let's take the classic example.
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Gold is the oldest safe haven out there.
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For literally thousands of years, investors have flocked to Gold's, a store of wealth, as a hedge against inflation, as a hedge against all sorts of chaos, So you might think that people were flocking to gold now, and in a sense they are.
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But actually they've been flocking to gold for the past five years or so.
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Gold price has rocketed. Since the pandemic.
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There have been all sorts of buyers, from central banks to average retail investors.
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The weird result that you've had from that is that gold price has gone up so far already, that at the onset of the war, it fell along with stocks.
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It started to behave a little bit like a speculative asset.
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It's very unusual for gold to behave in this way, for gold to effectively behave like a risky assets similar to shares, rather than a safe asset that moves in the opposite direction to them.
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And even though gold investors are sitting on years of gains now, it might make them feel less like it's a haven and more like a bet.
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What about something slightly more modern, the dollar?
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Yeah. So the dollar is, you know, the currency version of gold.
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It's the currency that investors around the world flock to when times are really recently.
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We had a severe test of that.
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And the test was the so-called Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump introduced last year.
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Around that time, there was a stock market panic.
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There was a panic in the bond market.
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But whereas in a time like that, you would usually expect the dollar to appreciate, actually the dollar fell along with everything else.
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Investors started to judge not just that the chaos had come to America, but there was this kind of cocktail of factors that meant the dollar wouldn't be a safe haven.
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this meant that the dollar fell along with everything else.
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It didn't behave like a safe haven, and the dollar has stabilized since then.
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It's not still falling in value.
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But now, when you get crisis moments like the onset of this war, if it gains, it doesn't gain very much.
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And generally it's just been a bit flat.
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So again, this seems like less of a safe haven than it than it used What about the supposed safest of safe havens, government bonds.
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Now again, you would expect those to benefit at a time like this, just from this kind of flight to safety effect.
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If everything else is threatened, where do you put your money?
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It can't be in dollars. It can't be in gold.
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You know, there aren't infinite options.
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Government bonds is something you flock to.
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And the other thing that helps you with government bonds is that in very bad times during a recession, interest rates tend to fall.
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Government bond prices move inversely to interest rates.
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So when things get really bad, the bottom line is government bonds tend to shoot up while everything else Again, there are some peculiar features of this crisis that make government bonds look less safe.
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The main one is that you would expect a rise in the price, and a rise in all sorts of other energy costs.
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You would expect that to push up inflation, and inflation eats away at the value of government bonds.
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we expect inflation to rise as a result of these events.
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The other thing that's kept government bonds down in value is that the war and it's not on affects protecting citizens from the knock on effects is going to cost governments money.
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And governments are already borrowing vast sums each year across the rich world.
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So as well as the worries about inflation, there's a worry that rich world governments in particular fiscally, are on an unsustainable path and that that will hurt the value of their government bonds in the future.
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So those two together make even government bonds seem like less of a haven now.
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So where does that leave investors?
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Are they should they just flock to buying stocks?
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that is what a lot of investors say.
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You go around in these sober minded people.
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They look at all of the alternatives and say, well, hey, stocks is really the only option.
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If there's going to be this inflationary problem, then stocks aren't a bad place to have your money because if the value of money goes down, you would expect corporate profits to rise along with inflation, and stocks should at least kind of outpace the loss of value you might get if you stuffed your cash under the mattress or kept it in a bank account or government bonds or whatever.
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The problem with that reasoning is, I didn't at any point there say companies are going to make ballooning profits and therefore share prices are worth more.
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That's what would actually make you think share prices were worth more.
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Not just that people are going to flock out and buy them.
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And when you have people buying shares because it seems like there isn't an alternative, because it seems like the safe havens are gone, not because they're really happy about corporate profit growth, then you've got the potential for building up a bubble in a crash.
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Josh, thank you very much. Thank you Rosie.
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コンテキストと背景
この動画では、イラン戦争による原油供給の危機と、それに対する投資家の反応について議論されています。一見すると、世界中の経済が混乱している中で株式市場が活況を呈しているのは驚くべきことです。株式が高値を保つ一方で、従来の安全資産とされる金やドルの動向も興味深いものです。このような状況下での投資家の思考や行動を理解することは、英語学習者にとっても貴重な学びとなるでしょう。
日常コミュニケーションのためのトップ5フレーズ
- What's going on?（何が起きているのですか？）
- It's quite hard to second guess investors.（投資家の動きを推測するのは非常に難しいです。）
- The benefits from economic growth outweigh the negatives.（経済成長のメリットがデメリットを上回ります。）
- Investors don't want to miss out on future gains.（投資家は将来の利益を逃したくないのです。）
- Where are the safe havens now?（今、安全な避難所はどこにありますか？）
段階的シャドーイングガイド
この動画を使って、shadowspeak技術を活用して英語のスピーキングを改善する方法を説明します。以下のステップを踏んで、YouTubeで英語学習を効果的に行ってください。
- 動画を視聴する: 最初に、全体を通して動画を視聴し、内容を把握します。重要なポイントやフレーズに注意を払いましょう。
- フレーズを抜き出す: 上記の「日常コミュニケーションのためのトップ5フレーズ」を繰り返し聞き、正確な発音を確認します。
- シャドーイング開始: 動画の音声を再生し、そのまま繰り返してみます。発話のリズムやイントネーションを意識して、shadow speakの技術を用います。
- 録音して確認: 自分の声を録音し、元の音声と比較してみます。発音や流暢さをチェックし、改善点を見つけましょう。
- 反復練習: 継続的に練習し、発音が自然に聞こえるまで繰り返します。最終的には、IELTS スピーキング対策にもつながるスキルとなるでしょう。
このプロセスを通じて、より自信を持って英語を話せるようになり、日常会話の幅が広がることでしょう。
シャドーイングとは？英語上達に効果的な理由
シャドーイング（Shadowing）は、もともとプロの通訳者養成プログラムで開発された言語学習法で、多言語習得者として知られるDr. Alexander Arguelles によって広く普及されました。方法はシンプルですが非常に効果的：ネイティブスピーカーの英語を聞きながら、1〜2秒の遅延で声に出してすぐに繰り返す——まるで「影（shadow）」のように話者を追いかけます。文法ドリルや受動的なリスニングと異なり、シャドーイングは脳と口の筋肉が同時にリアルタイムで英語を処理・再現することを強制します。研究により、発音精度、抑揚、リズム、連音、リスニング力、そして会話の流暢さが大幅に向上することが確認されています。IELTSスピーキング対策や自然な英語コミュニケーションを目指す方に特におすすめです。