쉐도잉 연습: Why Europe Is Struggling to Keep Pace - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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The news for Europe just keeps getting worse.
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The news for Europe just keeps getting worse.
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The French government collapses, plunging EU's second largest economy into turmoil.
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France's political upheaval in December offered another glimpse at fractious European affairs.
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Germany's under pressure and Volkswagen workers are striking hard.
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In my view, we are already in a crisis mood.
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Our former model is over.
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If we follow our classical agenda,
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we will be out of the market.
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I have no doubt.
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The EU's economy is now fighting for survival and struggling to keep pace with the US and China.
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Had the European economy grown as fast as the American economy over the past couple of decades,
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we'd be generating 3 trillion euros of extra income every year.
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That's roughly the equivalent to the total GDP of France being routinely added into the economy.
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Europe needs to have a digital era economy with companies that challenge those from China and from the US.
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Without
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that, the region's at risk of being unable to afford to protect itself in a world where security is no longer guaranteed.
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It's just a very tense moment for the world,
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and Europe's at the center of it.
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This is one of the most consequential figures in global economics,
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and in September, he sounded an alarm.
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The activity is weak.
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It's very weak.
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Mario Draghi will this morning deliver his long-awaited reports on what Europe must do to regain its competitiveness.
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Mario Draghi is a highly respected economist,
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is former president of the European Central Bank during one of Europe's most difficult times,
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and also led Italy through another challenging period.
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He's become a figure that you look to in times of trouble.
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His report warned that the U.S and China were innovating so expeditiously,
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Europe needed to invest hundreds of billions of euros extra every year to compete, possibly to survive.
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The Draghi plan got the conversation started.
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And then, of course, there's Trump.
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And then, of course, there's China.
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And then there's a war in Ukraine and a war in the Middle East.
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The conclusion was Europe has been stuck in a rut.
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And if nothing changes and the current trajectory is maintained,
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then Europe will probably account for less than a tenth of global GDP by 2050,
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which points to Europe having a much diminished role in the global economy in years to come.
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Increasing productivity is one of Draghi's solutions to this.
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It doesn't mean making people work harder.
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It means for the same amount of work,
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a person creates more value.
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To appreciate the challenge, let's quickly examine one of Europe's most iconic traditional industries.
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Italy's olive business is worth billions of euros.
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Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney's government wants the industry to grow and help the country to reduce its mammoth debt burden.
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It's why olive millers received tens of millions of euros in post-pandemic EU aid granted to Italy.
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Some farms spent their share upgrading their machinery.
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We were collected at hand at least 30 years ago.
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After hand-hand, there were some developments.
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Now we are collecting with the suppliers and the growers at hand.
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Productivity is one of the best ways to grow an economy,
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because it means for the same amount of work,
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a person creates more value.
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And as important as olives are,
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cultivating them isn't as productive as developing semiconductors or solar panels,
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panels, two things the U.S and China prioritized years ago.
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We haven't taken frontier technologies and dispersed them through our economy in the way that would raise incomes and raise our efficiency.
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So by being left behind,
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we are now poorer and we're just not keeping pace with American productivity.
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Which is what led to the estimate that the EU economy is 18 percent smaller than it may otherwise have been.
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And that's equal to a shortfall of about 3 trillion euros.
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And why?
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One reason is the EU's dearth of massive investments in transformative startups.
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We don't translate technologies at the cutting edge into new businesses.
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And we don't have hugely successful technology companies in anything like the way that the U.S does,
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or even China to some extent.
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One reason is we don't have great venture capital markets here.
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Most of the world's really big companies have been funded via this actually quite tiny asset class.
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In Europe that sort of didn't happen.
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Part of it also is regulation.
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Europe really believes in regulation.
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That's not a bad thing.
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As I'm always told when I'm in Brussels,
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what we're doing is a blueprint for everyone else.
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But if you put it all together,
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you have a situation where you're not encouraging growth.
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We are behind everywhere else in the world.
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When people talk about billions,
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they sound like large numbers,
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But now we're talking about trillions in terms of the valuation of tech companies.
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Just take the biggest U.S ones over the last couple of years.
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If their combined value was a country,
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it would have the third biggest GDP in the world after the U.S and China.
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I think people are waking up to the fact
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that Europe really is in trouble because not only does it not have the tech platforms,
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but the digital era is eating into everything as we're We're seeing what's happening in Germany with the car industry,
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for example, that electric cars are fundamentally digital era products.
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Volkswagen is at the center of this difficult transition.
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It's still Europe's biggest carmaker and one of the EU's industrial engines.
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But it didn't prepare for an electric vehicle revolution or
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that it would be led by an American startup called Tesla and later rivaled by China.
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VW became emblematic of Germany's struggle.
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What VW is trying to do is close up to three factories.
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We're talking about tens of thousands potentially of job cuts.
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Meanwhile, Germany's neighbor is politically and financially deadlocked.
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France has a number of problems.
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High debt is one of them.
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The deficit is very wide,
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so that's the gap between what the government spends and what it brings in in tax revenue.
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That's huge, and it's proving very difficult to tackle.
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It's also over what the EU even allows,
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which is this, 3% of GDP.
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France was well past that this year and is forecast to be for some time.
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And it makes investors more apprehensive about buying French debt.
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That's what this line shows.
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The higher the line, the riskier France is judged to be relative to the traditionally very safe Germany.
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And in December, that risk was the highest it had been since 2012,
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when Europe was in the midst of a debt crisis.
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Which is just compounding the fiscal difficulties that it faces.
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So until there is a political resolution,
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it's hard to see the French economy turning around.
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People are waking up to the fact that France is facing a potential debt crisis.
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And Germany, on the other hand,
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is facing a potential employment crisis where it won't have the same number of workers producing the types of things
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that Germany has made itself famous for.
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And that impacts the whole of the European Union.
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I really don't think Europe can do anything without France and Germany agreeing and doing well.
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You need those two economies to push everyone else,
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and everyone else trades with them.
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So we have no options.
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We need them to do well.
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Put together, this is the state of Europe that Mario Draghi rang the alarm about.
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The bloc is too reliant on traditional industry,
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too unproductive, too uncoordinated, and two, averse to risk.
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This fractured political landscape, in which countries look to protect their own interests over those of the union,
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makes change difficult.
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So what's next?
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Where do we look for warning signs or silver linings?
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The euro against the dollar is a good diagnostic for where Europe is being left behind.
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It's trended downward and traded at equal value only a handful of times.
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But to command geopolitical weight,
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you need a big economy in dollar terms.
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So crossing that parity threshold is a worrisome indicator for economists and politicians.
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A fall to parity could embolden populist politicians who oppose the currency,
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raising the remote but real threat of another Brexit-like event.
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Germany's right-wing AFD party said it's planning an election campaign advocating this.
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But experts, including Draghi, have stressed that change, however difficult, is possible.
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Cars, machines, robots.
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This kind of precision engineering required to create this kind of hardware is something that Europe is traditionally very,
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very good at.
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Particularly Northern Italy, Southern Germany, Switzerland.
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These places that are very,
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very good at making things very well may play a pivotal role in where we produce high quality technological goods going forward.
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