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How is the US, with the strongest navy in the world,
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How is the US, with the strongest navy in the world,
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struggling against a much smaller adversary?
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The contest of who controls the Strait of Hormuz is exposing the vulnerabilities of shipping lanes and also big navies.
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You don't need a navy to do naval warfare anymore.
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Modern warfare has already changed.
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For decades, bigger always seem to be better.
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But is size the only thing that matters when dealing with modern threats?
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Why can't the US just dominate the seas?
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That's true, the United States does still have the strongest navy in the world,
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based on how much destruction its ships can deliver,
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even though it has fewer ships than China.
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This is Brian Clark, an expert on the US Navy at the conservative Hudson Institute and former Pentagon advisor.
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A lot of its ships are smaller ships that are designed for what they would call near-seas defense.
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It's all about the type of ships the country has.
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Aircraft carriers are considered the most powerful warships on the seas.
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The US has 11, more than any other navy in the world,
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and each one costs billions.
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Like the USS Gerald R.
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Ford, the biggest ship the country has ever put to sea.
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The Pentagon describes the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier as the most capable,
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adaptable and lethal combat platform in the world.
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And no country has a global military presence like the US.
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Around 750 military bases in 80 countries.
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Built over decades with US partners and allies.
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Washington doesn't disclose the location of all of them.
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These are the naval bases we know of.
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Military bases are the backbone of any overseas operation.
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Ships, jets and troops all need somewhere to refuel and rearm.
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Commercial ports can serve that role too,
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if host nations allow military vessels to dock.
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In theory, this global network of bases should equate to US dominance at sea.
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That used to be true.
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But the contest over the Strait of Hormuz shows it doesn't take a big navy to disrupt global trade routes
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that most of us had taken for granted.
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We sort of accepted the fact that all these choke points were pretty much accessible,
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really never got closed, and short of a natural disaster or a shipping accident,
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you could always transit around the world and ship things around the world.
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And so we built a whole supply chain architecture around the world that assumed that.
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More than 80% of world trade moves overseas.
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At least 25% of that is oil and gas.
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So just having a lot of bases isn't enough to control the seas anymore.
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What matters just as much is who controls the shipping lanes and above all the choke points.
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For Major Power they all have aircraft carriers
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but aircraft carriers normally are just for force projection far away from your own coast.
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That's retired senior Colonel Zhou Bo from the the Chinese military.
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Now a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at the Tsinghua University.
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We will hear more from him later.
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Any choke point can suddenly be controlled by a power
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or an entity that doesn't even have a navy
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and creates challenges for navies that they can't solve with their traditional blue water aircraft carriers and submarines and destroyers.
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Which brings us back to the Strait of Hormuz.
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Following U.S and Israeli attacks on Iran,
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the Iranian regime moved to close the strait,
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unleashing a global energy crisis.
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With the world's most powerful navy at its disposal,
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shouldn't the US be able to reopen it quickly?
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Iran is able to control that shorepoint without really any navy whatsoever.
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Most of Iran's main navy has already been destroyed by the US and Israeli attacks.
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But the IRGC has used small boats,
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missiles shot from land and sea drones to attack ships trying to pass through.
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Plus, Iran likely has sea mines that could be somewhere in the strait.
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And even though Iran doesn't have a really substantial anti-ship threat,
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it still has anti-ship ballistic missiles,
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and it could attack carriers out hundreds of miles away from the coast.
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So you've seen the U.S carriers operate pretty far away from Iran,
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and only the destroyers maybe go closer because they have air defense systems.
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But even they don't get that close to the Iranian and coast because they anticipate they would face the Shahed threat,
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the anti-ship maritime drone threat.
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Geography matters here.
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The US's large Blue Water Navy is ill-suited to this kind of confined asymmetric fight.
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By the way, Blue Water Navy describes a navy that can deploy ships across the open ocean.
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And that's exactly what the US is still doing.
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A country that does have a traditional navy can operate in the open ocean and control that choke point from the sea.
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And that's what the U.S.
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Navy is doing.
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So while moves from the shore, the Navy, U.S.
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Navy can also use that same choke point as a place that they can create a blockade.
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So you've now seen the U.S be able to blockade most of Iran's exports and imports,
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at least at scale, using blue water forces that are operating in the Arabian Sea.
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For commercial vessels, even the threat of an attack is often enough to deter them from the route.
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That's also for insurance reasons.
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That means that to block the choke point,
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Iran doesn't need to attack every ship going through to hold shipping.
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And this isn't the only choke point blocked in recent years.
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Remember the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that was virtually closed because of attacks by the Yemeni Houthis?
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A non-state actor with limited resources managed to rock the global economy.
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Many commercial ships still avoid that route through the Red Sea today.
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So what changed?
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How did actors with no navy suddenly get so much influence over waterways?
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What is changing the game?
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asymmetric naval warfare has never been so accessible.
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The big change has been the advent of these one-way attack drones.
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With the advent of drones and the advent of in multiple domains,
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so not just the airborne drones but also maritime drones,
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we saw a shift to where these non-state actors
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and even smaller states that were proximate to a choke point could take advantage of
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that fact and now cut off access to a vital choke point without a navy,
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without a formal even government in the case of the Houthis.
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So it was really that shift driven by technology that created the potential for these shipping lanes to be cut off.
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Drones, sea, air and underwater,
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low-cost missiles and sea mines have all seen major advancement in recent years.
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And they cost a fraction of a multi-billion dollar aircraft carrier.
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But major navies are adapting to the new threat.
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So if you're a country that depends on freedom of navigation and access to the open ocean,
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then you have to have a way to defeat these threats.
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And that creates a need for basically the counter drone type of capabilities.
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I mean, you're seeing some real innovation there in terms of laser weapons
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and gun based systems and even drones that shoot down other drones.
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So a lot of innovation is happening there.
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As naval warfare is changing,
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raw size seems to matter less.
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But one country has been expanding its navy at full speed.
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What lessons is the country with the world's biggest navy drawing?
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Well, size certainly matters, but it's not the only decisive element.
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China's navy already outnumbers the US fleet in total ships.
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And Colonel Zhou says it's also closing the quality gap.
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China's strong shipbuilding capabilities is much bigger than that of the United States.
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A big focus of China's bet, technology.
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I think Chinese military would be among the best developed military in terms of application of AI robots,
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drones in the future.
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Because if you talk about drones,
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for example, China and the United States are just dominating, right?
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So what does China actually want with this expanding technology forward navy?
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One of the country's priorities,
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protecting the shipping route that China's export-driven economy depends on.
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The tone, deliberately, sounds nothing like Washington's.
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The world, countries and countries are in the same way.
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The world is in the same way.
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The world is in the same way.
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The world is in the same way.
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The world is in the same way.
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The world is a matter of global responsibility.
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Carnageo frames it as a matter of global responsibility.
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Because to protect our own ships,
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this is your national interest.
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But to protect the ships of other countries,
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this is China's international responsibilities.
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Critics, however, point to China's increasingly expansionist behaviour in the South China Sea as evidence of a more aggressive agenda.
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But China's overseas naval footprint doesn't come close to the US navies.
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In terms of PRA Navy,
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we do have a problem of not having a lot of military bases.
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Officially, it has only one overseas naval base on the Horn of Africa in Djibouti,
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though there are credible reports of an expanding Chinese military presence in Cambodia
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and across the South China Sea at the facilities China has built there.
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It's worth noting that China has bought,
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invested in, and built a lot of civilian ports around the globe,
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some of which could be used for military purposes in the future, according to experts.
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China is pursuing a different model from the US,
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but as its global interests grow,
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it too is counting on size and speed.
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There is still a long way to go to catch up with the US military or the US Navy.
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Chinese military aims to become a world-class military by 2049.
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So where is naval warfare headed?
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Asymmetric threats are growing, technology is advancing faster than doctrine,
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and the world's major navies are racing to keep up.
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So the modern warfare has already changed.
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We have yet to see a real combat at sea,
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making use of drones.
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But given the fact that China and the United States are two leaders in AI,
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and AI will definitely be used militarily.
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And what's in store for the US Navy?
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We are seeing this shift in Navy force design away from kind of a carrier-based
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or even destroyer-based fleet of crewed surface combatants and ships and submarines to
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a mix of uncrewed vessel and crewed vessels where the uncrewed vessels are a growing percentage of the fleet.
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You still need humans in the loop or commanders in the loop to make decisions and be accountable for those decisions.
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But a lot of the fighting might end up being done by unmanned systems." The US is adapting,
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investing in counter-drone systems, autonomous vessels,
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and new tactics, and hoping to overhaul its ability to build new ships ships.
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China has been doing the same,
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arguably faster, and is continuing to add more ships to its navy.
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The war in Iran has exposed some of the vulnerabilities and is an ongoing test of how ready any navy can be.
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Control of the world's choke points has never been more consequential or more unpredictable.
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