Практика Shadowing: Rising prices, empty tanks: Energy shock dampens Asia's boom | DW News - Изучайте разговорный английский с YouTube

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The energy crisis cannot be overlooked in Asia.
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The energy crisis cannot be overlooked in Asia.
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The problems in the Strait of Hormuz are hitting the region particularly hard.
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That's because a large part of their energy imports comes from the Gulf states, but no longer.
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The economic consequences are considerable.
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Supply bottlenecks, long queues at petrol stations, and production stoppages.
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In some countries, even the rice harvest is at stake at stake.
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At the very least, prices are rising.
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If the conflict continues, a region that has previously enjoyed dynamic growth could abruptly slow down.
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In a scenario in which disruptions to energy markets persist into early next year,
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kind of a worst case scenario,
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regional growth would be lower by 1.3 percentage points over the period 2026 to 2027,
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and inflation would be 3.2 percentage points higher.
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India, for example, must import almost 90% of its crude oil,
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and much of this comes from the Gulf states,
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as does around three-quarters of its imported gas.
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Oil and gas are now in short supply.
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Restrictions have been imposed on industrial use,
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a disaster for energy-intensive industries such as glass production.
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When there is a 20 percent drop in the gas supply,
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it forces us to cut production by about 40 percent,
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because our furnace was made to operate at a specific fuel level to function efficiently.
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So we are operating at a 40 percent reduction of our production capacity.
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The Indian government says the energy supply is secure,
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but prices are rising dramatically.
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have had to close due to lack of gas.
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And although India is expanding renewable energies,
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the supply shortage is again making coal more important.
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You can see what is happening in our kitchens in rural India.
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Now, because we don't have energy to that extent,
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it's not reaching the villages,
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they're shifting to corn, which is very bad.
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But what can you do?
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You have to cook your corn.
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So therefore, it is that in immediate future,
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and if these conditions prevail,
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perhaps the use of fossil fuels like coal is going to go up.
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Bangladesh has been one of the country's hit hardest.
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Diesel has also had to be rationed there, even for farmers.
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Farmers really need a lot of fuel this season for their rice paddy irrigation.
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The government has set guidelines that we're sticking to,
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but we know it's not enough for the farmers.
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There's nothing left for this rice farmer today.
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Like everyone else, he needs diesel for his water pumps.
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The young rice plants development depends on irrigation.
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Many fields are already too dry, he says.
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Is there a threat of crop failure and famine?
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In the ASEAN states, almost 40% of oil imports come from the Gulf region,
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as do 62% of gas imports.
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And now?
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When LNG prices go haywire and countries are simply unable to afford or unable to procure available LNG cargos,
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they're going to turn to alternative fuels for short-term responses.
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And in many cases, that's been coal,
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like we're seeing right now.
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So more reliance on coal in the short term,
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but not every country has it.
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And other fossil fuels such as gas and oil now seem less secure.
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Is this a chance for renewables?
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The only good thing, or in the long run,
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it is that somewhere, the renewable energy will become more affordable.
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And the moment it becomes more or even it's able to compete or it becomes cheaper than the conventional,
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then the next step will be what is the capex.
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The midterm will be the subsidies shifting towards that
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and long term will be that everyone will move towards renewable sources of energy.
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In the long term, the crisis could therefore benefit renewables.
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But not everywhere.
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Every country has different needs.
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Japan, for example, imports much of its energy from the Gulf region.
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It has hardly any raw materials,
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but as an industrialised nation,
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it needs a lot of energy.
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Japan is already trying to become less dependent.
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But the expansion of offshore wind power has not worked as planned.
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Investors withdrew.
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More than 10 years after the Fukushima disaster,
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nuclear energy is also set to be expanded again,
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but the reactors are old.
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Despite its support for Ukraine,
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Japan feels compelled to participate in a Russian LNG plant.
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In the current crisis, however,
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the Prime Minister is promising the equivalent of $10 billion in support for the region.
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Thailand has suffered a price shock.
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Its entire energy supply depends almost solely on imports.
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Thailand has only little coal,
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so it mainly uses gas for power production,
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but you need oil for mobility.
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So, and for many industries,
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of course, for logistics, for the agricultural sector,
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which is very huge and important here,
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for fisheries and people working in this area now,
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they feel the pinch immediately.
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The same applies to the Philippines,
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where President Marcos declared an energy emergency back in March.
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The government promises subsidies even to secure the food supply.
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People protested the Iran war in front of the US embassy.
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The Philippines wants to further expand renewable energies.
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But it also wants an exemption from sanctions in the short term to import oil from Russia.
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The price shock is also being cushioned in Indonesia,
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with gas prices already lower.
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But rumours of price increases are making the population and politicians worry.
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These emerging economies like Indonesia are very vulnerable actually to higher prices.
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So many, many politicians fear demonstrations when the prices go up.
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So what Indonesia is currently doing,
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even as the world market prices go up,
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they double down on subsidies just to keep the people calm.
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The cost is estimated at almost $6 billion for 2026.
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How long can this be endured?
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In Indonesia, it's about prices, not energy shortages.
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Its electricity is mainly generated from its huge coal deposits,
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which it also exports.
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Demand had actually fallen.
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Indonesia's biggest coal export destination is China.
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And one of the reasons Indonesia panicked about its coal market and tried to reduce the output this year
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is that China import of coal start to plateau because they're absorbing a lot of renewable capacity.
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Now, during the energy crisis,
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coal is back in demand in Asia in the short term.
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But for how long?
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And how is the crisis affecting the region?
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I really think that the whole of the Asia-Pacific region,
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Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia,
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including China, is at a massive decision moment now with this latest crisis in the Middle East.
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Do they go down the road route of becoming electrotech advanced modern economies relying on solar PV,
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on battery storage, on electric vehicles,
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on other high-end electrical equipment such as heat pumps and so on?
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Or do they stay in the old world and remain dependent on different types of fossil fuels,
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whether that be oil, gas or coal.
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A decisive moment also for South Korea,
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which has been badly affected by the energy crisis.
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It wants to import more coal and gas from Indonesia in the short term.
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The government also says it intends to expand renewable energies.
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Away from politics, the energy crisis is already affecting the packaging industry.
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Plastic packaging cannot be produced without petroleum.
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We're seeing a rise in raw material prices and delays in supply,
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which means we can't manufacture our products.
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But his competitor is profiting.
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Here, the packaging is made mainly of paper.
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At first, we started developing paper packaging in response to growing eco-friendly,
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sustainability and ESG considerations and client demand has increased steadily.
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With ongoing disruptions to the plastic supply,
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we expect further growth in demand for our paper and other alternative materials.
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Is anything changing in the region?
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After all, according to estimates,
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Southeast Asia is responsible for around a third of the world's plastic waste.
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And China?
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It's the world's largest oil importer,
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but it buys from various regions and has built up large reserves.
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Despite the energy crisis, the International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.4% growth for China for 2026.
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The year has started strongly and… We also have sizable policy support that the authorities are providing,
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which again is boosting growth.
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So the impact of the war is being mitigated by these factors.
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China has also been an early adopter of renewable energies
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and is now a global pioneer in the construction of wind and solar power plants.
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Is it a role model for eternal competitor India?
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They are much bigger and in fact their technologies are great in terms of pricing,
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the way they have reduced the cost of solar panels and so on.
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So, I mean, we should follow there might still be something
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but
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if they can do it why can't we do it what
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will the energy crisis mean for southeast asia it's still too early to say definitively
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but it seems certain that energy demand will grow forecasts predict that the region will need 60 percent more energy by 2040.

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Ключевая лексика и фразы

  • Энергетический кризис (energy crisis)
  • Грузовые ограничения (supply bottlenecks)
  • Цены растут (prices are rising)
  • Нехватка газа (gas shortage)
  • Ирригация рисовых полей (rice paddy irrigation)
  • Промышленные ограничения (industrial restrictions)
  • Кризис продовольствия (food crisis)
  • Вособновляемые источники энергии (renewable energies)

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