Практика Shadowing: U.S. excludes Canada from trade talks with Mexico - Изучайте разговорный английский с YouTube
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We're about a month away now from Canada Day,
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We're about a month away now from Canada Day,
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also the review deadline for Kuzma.
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Our next guest warns that Canada shouldn't be in a hurry to come to new terms
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if big sacrifices are part of them.
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Let's go to John Weeks.
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He's a member of the expert group on Canada-U.S relations,
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former NAFTA chief negotiator.
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John, thanks for joining us.
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Thank you, Mirella.
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Good to be with you.
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How do you interpret that Canada is not even in the room for the discussions going on between the U.S and Mexico?
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I don't know.
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I think we should be there.
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And, you know, they've said that these are basically technical discussions.
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But in the end, a trade negotiation is made up of a whole series of technical discussions,
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plus some high-level diplomacy.
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And I think you need to be there for all the parts of it.
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So I think we should be trying to make sure that Canadian negotiators are in the room for what's going on now.
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Because what happens there will likely mean some pressure on Canadian negotiators,
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perhaps to give up more than they want to.
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Well, I think the first problem is that,
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you know, they've said that the Mexicans and the Americans,
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they issued a press release saying they're having technical discussions on,
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including on major industrial sectors.
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And I understand that they're actually talking about how they might improve the rules of origin,
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improve in quotes.
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in the automobile sector.
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So that's definitely something of major interest to Canada.
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And if they start developing some ideas about how to put these different,
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you know, for changing the rules,
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then we may have an uphill battle to try and change it to make sure our interests are taken account of.
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Yeah.
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So basically, just to loop the viewers in a little bit more,
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they're looking at how much of an automobile,
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for example, would come from American,
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well, both American resources and, I guess, American workers.
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And that could significantly affect Canada's contribution.
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Is the auto industry, you think,
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the biggest focus of these discussions?
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Well, I think that is one of the biggest places where Canada stands to be put at some risk.
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But I think, you know,
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potentially it's going to cover a number of other sectors, too.
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You know, we still have major tariffs in place on aluminum and steel products, for instance.
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So that's a big problem as well.
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You talk about the fortress North America approach.
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Can you explain a little bit about how that works and why that could also be a problem for Ottawa?
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Well, I think what the Americans would like us to do is,
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particularly in a number of major industrial sectors is agree to erect trade barriers against countries outside North America
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and in exchange for having lower tariff barriers inside North America.
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They haven't been clear about whether we'd still get back to
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the real free trade conditions we had with the United States earlier.
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And I think the problem here is if we start erecting trade barriers against other countries,
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like the European Union or our partners in the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
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we may well, you know,
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that'll violate our obligations under that agreement,
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and we'll have repercussions for the kind of trade relationship we have with them.
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So this is really possibly we get into a fortress North America situation
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and we make it much more difficult for Canada to diversify its trade relations with other countries.
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Can you be a little specific about what sectors that would pose a problem for?
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I know we're sending more energy and we now are getting more energy contracts with other countries,
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as you mentioned, European Union, China, maybe India.
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So I'm wondering if there are certain sectors that it would be hurt more by that fortress North America idea.
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Well, I think one I think the government should should be
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honest with Canadians about where it would be prepared to contemplate a fortress North America approach,
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because potentially this this could be a big a big problem in a number of areas.
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And basically, any area where you start creating a fortress in North America,
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it's going to create problems for us in our relations with other countries.
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So, you know, I think to some extent,
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China's perhaps been the biggest focus in thinking about adopting this approach.
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But there's certainly been no assurance that it would be limited to China.
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Wondering if Canada can delay the negotiations.
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Midterms are in November, of course.
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There could be a change in the power balance in Washington.
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But the second part of that question,
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of course, is can our economy withstand a delay?
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Well, I think, you know,
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obviously we're under a lot of pressure.
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Some sectors are in real difficulty right now,
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and I think we need to do what we can do to try to alleviate that pressure or eliminate it.
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But it's not clear that we can do that very easily,
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and maybe not at all.
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And I think that the question is,
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do we want to enter a new deal with the United States now that would be less favorable than KUSMA,
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the current agreement that we have,
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and that we would have duty,
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we would agree to having duties applied to us?
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Or is it better to be constructive in the talks,
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but not be in a big hurry to conclude them,
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because I think there's some prospect that Trump's trade policy is really under pressure in the United States.
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And I think, you know,
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with the run-up to the midterms elections and what can possibly come out of those elections,
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it's quite likely we'll see some shifts in American trade policy in terms of what they would actually like to see happen.
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And that could create more conditions in which we would have a better shot at getting a reasonable deal.
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John Weeks, and we'll leave it there,
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sir, but appreciate your time.
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Thank you.
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Thank you, Muriel.
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It's pretty complicated.
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Yeah, I know that it is.
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Thank you for your time.
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