Практика Shadowing: Why Humans Should Merge with AI | D. Scott Phoenix | TED - Изучайте разговорный английский с YouTube
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So if you're like me,
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you might be feeling at least a bit unmoored by how fast everything is changing.
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AI, our society, the world order,
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and that's just since this morning.
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I have two young daughters,
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and like a lot of us,
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I've been trying to make sense of the future they're growing up into.
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And what helped me make sense of it actually wasn't looking forward.
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It was going back, all the way back.
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You see, two billion years ago,
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life on Earth was mostly single-celled until bacteria figured out a new trick,
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photosynthesis, which makes oxygen.
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Now, at the time, oxygen was poison.
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It shredded the delicate chemistry that nearly all life on Earth depended on,
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and the planet changed faster than life could keep up with.
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Some scientists call what followed the first mass extinction event in Earth's history.
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But somewhere in that dying world, an extraordinary thing happened.
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A larger cell swallowed a smaller one,
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and instead of digesting it, they merged.
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The smaller cell became what we now call the mitochondria,
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the little powerhouse inside almost every complex cell on Earth.
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That merger created an energy surplus so vast,
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It funded everything that followed.
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Larger cells, bodies, brains.
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Every breath you take is still powered by the descendants of that ancient partnership.
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That one accident in a dying world is the reason everyone in this room is alive today.
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Biologists call these moments major transitions,
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when separate entities stop competing and start building a new whole.
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like how molecules became cells,
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cells became bodies, and individuals became societies.
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Every rung on that ladder was climbed through mergers.
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Now, we're on the cusp of the next major transition,
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the merger of humans and AI.
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That's right, we're going to eat the AI.
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Now, I know what you're thinking.
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Maybe you're rolling your eyes,
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maybe you're laughing, maybe you feel nervous.
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It's OK.
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I thought I felt all of those things the first time I heard myself say it.
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So let me explain.
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For 15 years, I worked on building AI.
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I started one of the early AI companies.
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I raised a quarter of a billion dollars to do it,
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and I sold my business to Google.
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And not long ago, I was at a private event with many of the leaders
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building the AIs we all use every day, people you'd recognize.
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And I asked them, there's more than a 10 percent chance that AI kills most of humanity in the next 20 years.
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Almost every hand went up.
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The people building these systems know how dangerous they are,
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but they're trapped in a race where anyone who slows down gets overtaken by someone who doesn't.
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If one company pauses for safety,
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another one takes the market.
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If a country stops to regulate, another one races ahead.
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Every AI founder has had the same conversation with themselves late at night.
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you lie there and you think,
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if I don't build this, someone worse will.
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AI is the oxygen crisis of our era,
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and it's coming whether we're ready or not.
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So what do we do?
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When a lot of people think about AI,
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they think about what it will do to us,
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what jobs it will take,
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what we should do to slow it down or regulate it,
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and those are important questions.
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But they're actually downstream of a much deeper question,
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which is what happens if AI stays separate from us.
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Right now, your AI lives on the other side of a screen.
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You ask it a question, it answers.
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You close your laptop and it's gone.
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But while your laptop is closed,
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the AI keeps getting better at your job.
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And if we stay separate,
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the AI is not your tool,
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it's your replacement, one that gets smarter and faster and cheaper every week.
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It doesn't take much to notice what happened the last time a new apex intelligence arrived here on Earth.
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That intelligence was us.
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And since we got here,
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we've driven to extinction every competing intelligence between Homo sapiens and pantroglodytes.
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Today, we keep our closest animal ancestors,
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chimpanzees, in reserves for their protection from us.
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Without a merger, AI isn't a partner, it's a rival.
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So what's the good news?
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The good news is a merger isn't something we need to decide to start.
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It's something we need to notice that we are already in.
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When did you stop remembering phone numbers?
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There was no moment you decided to forget them,
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they just moved from your head to your pocket.
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Your calendar probably went next,
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then little judgment calls you used to make for yourself.
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The tool was great at it,
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so you let the tool do it.
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And while something left your head,
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a better thing took its place.
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You stopped checking your spelling and you started writing.
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You stopped remembering how to get there,
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and you started thinking about what you'd say when you arrived.
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And notice how we keep pulling these tools closer to us.
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The mainframe was in a whole other building.
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We put the PC on our desk,
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the smartphone in our pocket,
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the smartwatch on our wrist,
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smart glasses on our face.
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Every step closer to our minds,
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closer to the speed of thought.
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And even that boundary is starting to blur.
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Right now, paralyzed patients are typing with their thoughts.
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Neural implants are restoring speech,
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vision and hearing to people who've lost them.
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Noland Arbaugh, the first person to receive a Neuralink brain implant,
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says that using it feels like using the force.
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The machine doesn't feel like a machine, it feels like him.
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And you may not realize it,
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but a technology we all use every day is learning to hear our thoughts.
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The Face ID system used to unlock your phone is being repositioned into headphones and glasses,
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where it can recognize microscopic muscle movements just beneath our skin,
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movements imperceptible to the human eye.
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The system that first learned to recognize us is now starting to see inside.
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Today, a brain implant has about 1,000 connections into the brain,
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and soon it will have 10,000,
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and then 100,000, and then a million.
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At 1,000 connections, you can restore movement.
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At 10,000, speech.
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At a million connections, you stop restoring what was lost and you start adding what was never there.
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Imagine learning a language in an afternoon,
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a new skill overnight, maybe even sharing a memory with a friend
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and having it feel just as real to them as it felt to you.
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The thing about this future is it doesn't require new technology,
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It just requires more of the same technology.
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Someone you work with will get it first,
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and you'll hold out for a while,
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the way you did with a smartphone, but eventually, you won't.
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The advantages of integration will be hard to compete with.
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Think about what we even do when we use a computer today.
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You move a picture of an arrow around until it touches a picture of a folder.
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Inside, there are pictures of files.
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You click, you scroll, you drag.
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Sending a file to a colleague takes a whole minute.
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Two of those seconds were the decision.
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The rest of it is the equivalent of walking across your house to flip a light switch.
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With a system that can hear our thoughts, you skip the walk.
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The further this goes, the more deeply we integrate with AI,
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the harder it will be to tell where our thoughts end and AI begins.
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For example, what's the square root of 117 trillion?
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Go ahead, I'll wait.
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If you try to answer that,
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you felt something, you felt a gap,
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a pause between the question arriving and anything starting to form,
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and you've lived your whole life inside that gap.
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Close it, and the answer arrives instantly,
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the way you know your name,
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like a memory, one that bridges the distance between human and AI.
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Now, I think we'll choose to merge because the alternative being replaced is far worse.
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But every major transition in the history of life has a condition.
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The parts have to remember that they are parts.
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A cell in your body wants to grow and replicate,
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and normally its growth serves you.
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Your cells grow, so you can grow.
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But sometimes a cell forgets that it belongs to a whole.
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It starts growing without limit.
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And if your immune system fails to catch it, we call that cancer.
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The thing about untreated cancer is it succeeds for a while,
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the tumor grows, But eventually,
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the cancer kills the host, which kills the cancer.
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A part forgets the whole,
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and the whole dies, which kills the part.
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This pattern repeats at every scale.
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Our civilization is itself a merger.
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It is the sometimes fragile,
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invisible agreement that millions of strangers will share institutions, sacrifices and a future.
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No one person built this system,
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and no one group controls it,
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but we all rely on it.
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And as AI arrives and the world gets more turbulent,
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every part of the society we depend on for our survival will be tempted to defect.
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People who lose their livelihoods will feel abandoned.
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People who keep theirs will feel entitled to look away.
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And bit by bit, the agreement phrase,
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Major transitions fail when the parts break before they can adapt.
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And for us to make it to a merger with AI,
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we have to stay merged with each other.
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Major transitions fail when we don't make that leap.
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The thing about the future is we all have to share the same one.
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And we either all make it there together,
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or we don't make it there at all.
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Two billion years ago, the first merger gave us our cells,
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and the ones that followed gave us our bodies,
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our minds and our civilization.
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Every beautiful, difficult thing that followed,
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followed because the parts held together.
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Now our oxygen crisis is arriving,
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and it will not be gentle.
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Jobs will change and some will disappear.
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Institutions will shake and some will fail.
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Surviving this will take everything that we have.
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So here's what I'm asking from all of us,
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for every day from now on.
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Hold together.
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Do not indulge the fantasy that your side can let the other side sink and somehow stay dry.
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The universe has been doing this for a long time,
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And the mergers that worked left descendants.
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The ones that failed left fossils.
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I want my daughters to be descendants,
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and I want yours to be, too.
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Thank you.
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Ключевая лексика и фразы
- мерж - merger
- искусственный интеллект - artificial intelligence (AI)
- существование - existence
- фотосинтез - photosynthesis
- основное изменение - major transitions
- долговременное воздействие - long-term impact
- массовое вымирание - mass extinction
- электронные молекулы - electronic molecules
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