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NPR.

This is the indicator from Planet Money, also known as the 2026 Ambie Award winning Best Business Podcast.

I'm Adrian Ma.

I'm Darian Woods.

And I'm Waylon Wong.

And it is Jobs Friday.

It's the day each month where we look at the latest government jobs report

and we check in with how American workers are doing.

That is right.

And according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in May remained at 4.3%, so same as the past couple of months,

and employers added 172,000 jobs.

That's a pretty good number overall.

And, you know, this is the third month in a row that employers have added a decent number of jobs.

That's true, but we always like to dig beneath the headline numbers and add some detail to the picture.

Computer, enhance!

So after the break, we'll explain what is driving job growth right now, whether AI is really to blame for young people struggling to land their first job,

and how the unemployment rate for black workers could be a signal of what's to come.

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We're looking at this month's jobs report.

Why don't you kick us off, Adrian Maher?

So like we said, May was a strong month for jobs.

172,000 jobs added.

And in fact, this latest report includes some revised estimates for the months of March and April.

They were revised upwards as the BLS got more data.

And between those two months, that means employers added 93,000 more jobs than was previously reported.

And that's on top of what were already strong hiring numbers.

All right, so we've got three months in a row of strong hiring.

So maybe, perhaps, the labor market is starting to shake off this low hire, low fire sluggishness we've been seeing for a lot of the past year.

That could be.

And a couple more interesting notes from this report.

It says most of the jobs added last month were in the leisure and hospitality sector, local government and health care.

And the average hourly wage was $37.53 an hour.

That is 3.4% higher than a year ago, but not quite enough to keep up with inflation, which recently clocked in at 3.8%.

So this Shops report has made me think

that it's going to be pretty unlikely

that the Federal Reserve is going to decide to cut interest rates in the near future.

I mean, this is a good point, right?

Because as we know, President Trump has been jawboning the Fed to lower interest rates to try and juice the economy.

But the job market is gaining steam and inflation, rising prices for gas, groceries and other things.

That's really the growing concern right now.

And the Fed cutting interest rates would just add to inflation.

So in this environment, the case for an interest rate cut makes even less sense.

And some economists might even see cause for a rate hike.

Interesting environment for a new Fed chair to be stepping in.

Thank you for that, Adrian.

And now we're going to dive into some specific groups, Jerry and Woods.

I was particularly interested in the unemployment rate for younger workers.

Right.

A lot of young people have just graduated from trade school or college, so this is going to be what they're obsessed with right now.

And what their parents are probably going to be thinking about?

Yeah, so those parents will be relieved because the jobs report showed

that the unemployment rate of Americans aged 20 to 24 decreased a little to 7.2% in May.

Now, historically, that's kind of average, but it doesn't include all of the people who think

that the jobs market is so bad that they're just going to go back to school.

Younger people have been feeling frustrated about the jobs market for a few years now.

I mean, judging by the sort of viral clips of commencement speeches, you would think that this is all because of AI being the big villain here.

Yeah, here's former Google CEO Eric Schmidt speaking at the University of Arizona.

Time magazine selected its person of the year for 2025, and this time it was the architects of artificial intelligence.

Interesting.

So today we stand on this grid.

Oh man, they're just, they're really not having it.

They are not.

And there has been a smattering of research over the last year supporting those boos.

It says AI is to blame for low hiring rates for junior workers.

Eric Schmidt should have pivoted and started just reading out those studies.

He could have gotten the crowd back on his side.

what he needed were two new studies which are casting doubt on the AI theory.

They have accused another big force for the death of junior hires, remote work.

Oh, okay, that's interesting.

So this predates the whole AI boom.

It does, but it's actually very similarly timed as people kind of figured out

that remote work did have some friction in the gears of running a business.

So the first paper from two economists in the UK looked at hundreds of millions of hires

and jobs postings all across the US and other countries from 2017 to 2035.

Now they couldn't find much evidence that AI was killing that many junior jobs, even in tech.

But what they did find was that jobs

that were more likely to have remote workers were less likely to hire people with limited experience.

The second paper was from three economists in the US.

In findings released this week, they conclude that nearly two-thirds of the recent rise in unemployment among young college graduates is because of remote work.

So employers are basically telling Gen Z, like, no thanks, don't worry about applying.

Gen Z need not apply.

100

The idea is that onboarding is much harder in a remote work world,

101

and so hiring managers are leaning towards getting people that already know the workplace basics.

102

They know the on-the-job skills and how to communicate with others, being proactive, all that stuff that face-to-face makes easier.

103

I do see that rationale.

104

I also think that if you take the time now to train Gen Zers about how to do this kind of work,

105

you know, there could be a payoff later that maybe employers aren't thinking of.

106

Absolutely.

107

And training seems to be easier face-to-face.

108

Could you use AI? to train?

109

Maybe AI is the savior.

110

Let's revisit this in five years.

111

Thank you, Darren, for that bit of insight into younger workers.

112

Waylon, why don't you go next?

113

Okay, I am here to talk about another area of concern that could potentially signal trouble for the broader labor market, and that is black workers.

114

This is a group where their unemployment rate has historically been higher than the main number, and this was definitely the case in May.

115

The jobless rate for black workers was 6.6% compared with 4.3% for all workers.

116

That said, the 6.6% number is an improvement.

117

It's down from April and it's the lowest rate in a year.

118

So hopefully it keeps moving in that direction.

119

Yeah.

120

And black women in particular really felt the effects of the mass layoffs

121

and buyouts we saw with the federal workforce last year.

122

I read an analysis from the Economic Policy Institute.

123

That's a think tank that advocates for low and middle income working families.

124

And the EPI says that black women suffered the greatest job losses in 2025.

125

Its analysis also shows that the overall net loss was driven entirely by cuts in public sector jobs.

126

I wonder whether some of these federal workers finding new jobs might be why the black unemployment rate went down.

127

Yeah, it's encouraging data.

128

But, you know, if the black unemployment rate were to go back up, that could be a bad signal.

129

There was some other research that caught my eye recently.

130

It comes from Kevin Rins, an economist at the Cleveland Fed.

131

And he determined that when the unemployment rate for black workers goes up, it tends to be followed by higher overall unemployment.

132

Right.

133

So that's what they call a leading indicator.

134

Yeah.

135

According to his analysis, if the black unemployment rate goes up one percentage point,

136

you can expect the overall unemployment rate to go up about 0.2 percentage points in four to seven months.

137

That's super interesting.

138

We hear about recession indicators all the time.

139

And this one And going back to basics, the unemployment rate for black workers seems like it has some empirical backing to it.

140

Absolutely, yeah.

141

Just back to basics.

142

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez.

143

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and Vito Emanuel.

144

Kate Kinkannon edits the show and The Indicator is a production of NPR.

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This message comes from NPR sponsor Charles Schwab with its original podcast on investing.

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It's hosted by Lizanne Saunders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, and Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

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