Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: Why Europe Is Struggling to Keep Pace
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The news for Europe just keeps getting worse.
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The news for Europe just keeps getting worse.
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The French government collapses, plunging EU's second largest economy into turmoil.
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France's political upheaval in December offered another glimpse at fractious European affairs.
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Germany's under pressure and Volkswagen workers are striking hard.
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In my view, we are already in a crisis mood.
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Our former model is over.
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If we follow our classical agenda,
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we will be out of the market.
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I have no doubt.
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The EU's economy is now fighting for survival and struggling to keep pace with the US and China.
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Had the European economy grown as fast as the American economy over the past couple of decades,
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we'd be generating 3 trillion euros of extra income every year.
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That's roughly the equivalent to the total GDP of France being routinely added into the economy.
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Europe needs to have a digital era economy with companies that challenge those from China and from the US.
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Without
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that, the region's at risk of being unable to afford to protect itself in a world where security is no longer guaranteed.
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It's just a very tense moment for the world,
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and Europe's at the center of it.
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This is one of the most consequential figures in global economics,
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and in September, he sounded an alarm.
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The activity is weak.
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It's very weak.
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Mario Draghi will this morning deliver his long-awaited reports on what Europe must do to regain its competitiveness.
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Mario Draghi is a highly respected economist,
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is former president of the European Central Bank during one of Europe's most difficult times,
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and also led Italy through another challenging period.
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He's become a figure that you look to in times of trouble.
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His report warned that the U.S and China were innovating so expeditiously,
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Europe needed to invest hundreds of billions of euros extra every year to compete, possibly to survive.
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The Draghi plan got the conversation started.
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And then, of course, there's Trump.
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And then, of course, there's China.
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And then there's a war in Ukraine and a war in the Middle East.
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The conclusion was Europe has been stuck in a rut.
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And if nothing changes and the current trajectory is maintained,
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then Europe will probably account for less than a tenth of global GDP by 2050,
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which points to Europe having a much diminished role in the global economy in years to come.
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Increasing productivity is one of Draghi's solutions to this.
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It doesn't mean making people work harder.
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It means for the same amount of work,
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a person creates more value.
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To appreciate the challenge, let's quickly examine one of Europe's most iconic traditional industries.
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Italy's olive business is worth billions of euros.
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Prime Minister Giorgia Maloney's government wants the industry to grow and help the country to reduce its mammoth debt burden.
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It's why olive millers received tens of millions of euros in post-pandemic EU aid granted to Italy.
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Some farms spent their share upgrading their machinery.
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We were collected at hand at least 30 years ago.
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After hand-hand, there were some developments.
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Now we are collecting with the suppliers and the growers at hand.
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Productivity is one of the best ways to grow an economy,
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because it means for the same amount of work,
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a person creates more value.
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And as important as olives are,
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cultivating them isn't as productive as developing semiconductors or solar panels,
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panels, two things the U.S and China prioritized years ago.
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We haven't taken frontier technologies and dispersed them through our economy in the way that would raise incomes and raise our efficiency.
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So by being left behind,
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we are now poorer and we're just not keeping pace with American productivity.
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Which is what led to the estimate that the EU economy is 18 percent smaller than it may otherwise have been.
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And that's equal to a shortfall of about 3 trillion euros.
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And why?
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One reason is the EU's dearth of massive investments in transformative startups.
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We don't translate technologies at the cutting edge into new businesses.
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And we don't have hugely successful technology companies in anything like the way that the U.S does,
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or even China to some extent.
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One reason is we don't have great venture capital markets here.
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Most of the world's really big companies have been funded via this actually quite tiny asset class.
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In Europe that sort of didn't happen.
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Part of it also is regulation.
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Europe really believes in regulation.
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That's not a bad thing.
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As I'm always told when I'm in Brussels,
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what we're doing is a blueprint for everyone else.
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But if you put it all together,
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you have a situation where you're not encouraging growth.
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We are behind everywhere else in the world.
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When people talk about billions,
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they sound like large numbers,
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But now we're talking about trillions in terms of the valuation of tech companies.
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Just take the biggest U.S ones over the last couple of years.
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If their combined value was a country,
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it would have the third biggest GDP in the world after the U.S and China.
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I think people are waking up to the fact
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that Europe really is in trouble because not only does it not have the tech platforms,
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but the digital era is eating into everything as we're We're seeing what's happening in Germany with the car industry,
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for example, that electric cars are fundamentally digital era products.
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Volkswagen is at the center of this difficult transition.
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It's still Europe's biggest carmaker and one of the EU's industrial engines.
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But it didn't prepare for an electric vehicle revolution or
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that it would be led by an American startup called Tesla and later rivaled by China.
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VW became emblematic of Germany's struggle.
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What VW is trying to do is close up to three factories.
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We're talking about tens of thousands potentially of job cuts.
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Meanwhile, Germany's neighbor is politically and financially deadlocked.
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France has a number of problems.
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High debt is one of them.
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The deficit is very wide,
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so that's the gap between what the government spends and what it brings in in tax revenue.
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That's huge, and it's proving very difficult to tackle.
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It's also over what the EU even allows,
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which is this, 3% of GDP.
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France was well past that this year and is forecast to be for some time.
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And it makes investors more apprehensive about buying French debt.
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That's what this line shows.
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The higher the line, the riskier France is judged to be relative to the traditionally very safe Germany.
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And in December, that risk was the highest it had been since 2012,
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when Europe was in the midst of a debt crisis.
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Which is just compounding the fiscal difficulties that it faces.
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So until there is a political resolution,
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it's hard to see the French economy turning around.
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People are waking up to the fact that France is facing a potential debt crisis.
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And Germany, on the other hand,
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is facing a potential employment crisis where it won't have the same number of workers producing the types of things
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that Germany has made itself famous for.
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And that impacts the whole of the European Union.
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I really don't think Europe can do anything without France and Germany agreeing and doing well.
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You need those two economies to push everyone else,
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and everyone else trades with them.
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So we have no options.
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We need them to do well.
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Put together, this is the state of Europe that Mario Draghi rang the alarm about.
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The bloc is too reliant on traditional industry,
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too unproductive, too uncoordinated, and two, averse to risk.
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This fractured political landscape, in which countries look to protect their own interests over those of the union,
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makes change difficult.
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So what's next?
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Where do we look for warning signs or silver linings?
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The euro against the dollar is a good diagnostic for where Europe is being left behind.
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It's trended downward and traded at equal value only a handful of times.
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But to command geopolitical weight,
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you need a big economy in dollar terms.
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So crossing that parity threshold is a worrisome indicator for economists and politicians.
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A fall to parity could embolden populist politicians who oppose the currency,
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raising the remote but real threat of another Brexit-like event.
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Germany's right-wing AFD party said it's planning an election campaign advocating this.
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But experts, including Draghi, have stressed that change, however difficult, is possible.
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Cars, machines, robots.
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This kind of precision engineering required to create this kind of hardware is something that Europe is traditionally very,
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very good at.
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Particularly Northern Italy, Southern Germany, Switzerland.
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These places that are very,
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very good at making things very well may play a pivotal role in where we produce high quality technological goods going forward.
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Ngữ pháp & Biểu thức trong ngữ cảnh
- “It's just a very tense moment”: Câu này sử dụng cấu trúc thì hiện tại đơn để diễn tả tình huống kéo dài. Cách sử dụng này giúp người nghe cảm nhận được tính cấp bách của vấn đề.
- “had the European economy grown as fast”: Cấu trúc điều kiện loại 3, thể hiện một điều không có thật trong quá khứ. Biểu thức này rất hữu ích trong việc thảo luận về giả thuyết và các tình huống tưởng tượng.
- “If nothing changes and the current trajectory is maintained”: Câu điều kiện đơn giản nhưng có sức mạnh trong việc diễn đạt tầm quan trọng của sự thay đổi trong nền kinh tế.
- “in a world where security is no longer guaranteed”: Sử dụng mệnh đề quan hệ, câu này nâng cao sự diễn đạt và khả năng hiểu sâu vấn đề an ninh toàn cầu.
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Các bẫy phát âm thường gặp
Khi xem video, bạn có thể gặp phải một số từ hoặc cụm âm khó phát âm. Một trong số đó là “competitiveness”, từ này có âm “tiv” và “ness” nối tiếp nhau, dễ khiến người học bị bối rối. Hơn nữa, bạn cũng nên chú ý âm “v” trong “value”, vì âm này thường bị phát âm nhầm thành âm “w”. Những từ như “economic” và “productivity” cũng cần được nhấn mạnh đúng cách để diễn tả ý nghĩa chính xác.
Để vượt qua các bẫy phát âm này, bạn có thể áp dụng shadowing tiếng anh và lặp lại theo ngữ điệu của người nói trong video, giúp bạn cải thiện kỹ năng nói và nghe một cách đồng bộ.
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