跟读练习: How much is Donald Trump costing America’s economy? | The Economist - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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American economyy's done really quite well both in the long run or the medium run but also even since Donald Trump took over and that feels quite odd given the kind of forecasts of problems from tariffs and from migration and all the things that we and others have written about and the way we
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American economyy's done really quite well both in the long run or the medium run but also even since Donald Trump took over and that feels quite odd given the kind of forecasts of problems from tariffs and from migration and all the things that we and others have written about and the way we
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found to resolve this paradox was to realize that actually the American economy was really set up for an extraordinary year in 2025. there was a strong baseline going in for the reasons we discussed and then a number of boosts even ahead of that that were much stronger than expected
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coming through and those are the first of those sort of blue bars that we have up on the chart there. So starting from the baseline which we pull out of pre-Trump forecasts we then see that actually is a big boost from tax cuts. So there's more of that yet in 2026, but in 2025 there's
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already some a boost from stock markets doing very well, which is partly fueled by by optimism about Trump to a degree, but really mostly fueled by the extraordinary advances in AI. And then
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even beyond that, a specific kind of data center boom that we label AI capital expenditure that you can see in the numbers, too. And so off that baseline, we reckon were it not for the MAGA tax,
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were it not for everything we're going to get to, America was set up to be kind of homing in on almost 3% GDP growth. And instead, what happened in 2025 was a lot closer to 2%. That's one way of getting to the the MAGA tax, the gap between the two. So the gap between the two is about 3/4 of
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a percentage point. That's just just to to keep it simple. The American economy would have grown, you you think about 3/4 of a percentage point faster. Indeed. And so that's one way of doing it. The other way is just to look straight at what did Donald Trump do and how damaging was it? And
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this is pulling together external estimates, our own crunching of the numbers and so on. We really pulled out three that we thought mattered. The first was tariffs. We talked about those to death. Those have, we reckon, genuinely contracted the economy. We've we've used an estimate there
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of a sort of 0.2 percentage pointsish, but something pretty material. Just as important, if not more than the tariffs, we reckon was the immigration drag that border shutdown, mass deportations, towns of people not coming in, all of that. Then finally in our calculations
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actually the largest of that was the uncertainty. So the sheer churn the sheer chaos and if you look at American business investment outside of the AI sector which has done really well it's actually in a slump. It's actually a slump even worse than what Britain suffered after Brexit which
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was another similar shock to uncertainty. So you add all that up and you get to a similar figure of again 3/4 percentage point give or take but a pretty hefty mega attacks. What really struck me about this analysis was not only how rigorous it was, but also that it sort
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of rings true with what we've been talking about that the things that we thought would hurt the US economy did indeed hurt it. But what is very striking, Charlotte, when I look at this chart is the impact both of the AI capex and the AI wealth effect. I mean, were it not for the AI boom,
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the US economy would be in much worse shape. Do you want to talk through those two? Sure. So, um, there's been an enormous surge in investment from a few big tech companies, right? Just a
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handful of them. And that has had a big effect that you've seen um, in their valuations and the stock market performance. And you've also seen a lot of spending on capital equipment. And this is something I thought was really interesting in your analysis was that part of why the the impact on
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the economy was not greater actually is because so much of the investment on capital equipment is on imports from from elsewhere. And the thing that I as someone who you know thinks about at the
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politics of this as well find so fascinating about the AI um the AI wealth effect and the AI capex and its contribute contribution to the topline numbers of America's economy is that the wealth
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effect is not uh shared equally across all parts of American society and there's a huge uh brewing backlash against data centers against the politics of AI and so I think that one of the questions
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that this administration faces uh is that it wants to take full credit for the economic numbers that we've seen that it could trump it as a success. Uh but voters are not giving them any credit for
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it and I think the AI effects that you see in this chart are part of that reason. I was going to say that that um the AI effect in in a sense is a piece of luck but it's not exogenous to the
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American economy. It actually is typical of the American economy. ability to mobilize financial resources and to plow and take risks is what makes the American economy so strong and this is the
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latest example of it. I it makes perfect sense to me to strip out the positive effects of of AI but we do need to remember that is actually deep within the kind of DNA of the American economy.
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为什么通过这个视频练习口语？
练习英语口语是提高语言能力的重要途径，而观看与经济相关的视频能够帮助学习者掌握特定领域的术语与表达方式。通过本视频，学习者不仅能了解美国经济的动态，还能在真实的语境中练习口语。经济相关的讨论提供了丰富的词汇和表达方式，尤其是在分析和讨论经济政策时，这些都是非常实用的英语口语练习内容。
语法与表达的语境
- 条件句：视频中提到了“如果没有MAGA税，经济将增长0.75个百分点”。这样的结构常用于讨论假设情况，非常适合用来进行英语口语练习。
- 使用过去时描述过去事件：发言者提到“美国经济在唐纳德·特朗普执政期间发生了变化”。运用过去时能够帮助学习者更流利地叙述历史事件。
- 倒装句：在视频内容中，“这一点让人印象深刻”可以归类为倒装句，能增强口语表达的变化与丰富性。
- 引用数据：如“我们估计，关税给经济带来了0.2个百分点的负面影响”。引入数据可以帮助学习者在专业讨论中更具权威性。
- 对比句：比如“美国经济的表现相比于其他国家更为理想”，能帮助学习者进行比较分析，使口语表达更具深度。
常见发音陷阱
在视频中，某些词汇的发音可能会对非母语者造成挑战。特别是“economy”和“uncertainty”等词汇，发音上需注意音节的轻重和连读现象。此外，快速交流时，发言者的口音变化也可能影响理解，学习者可以在听的过程中注意是否有重音和语调的变化，从而提升自己的发音准确性。在进行英语口语练习时，模仿视频中的发音和语调，使用 shadowing 技术，可以帮助克服这些发音困难，提升口语流利度。在这种情况下，使用影子对话（shadow speak）和流利说（shadowspeaks）是非常有效的练习方式。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。