跟读练习: How will AI impact the jobs market? | BBC News - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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Research suggests that seven in ten workers are worried about their jobs and think AI will lead to widespread unemployment.
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Research suggests that seven in ten workers are worried about their jobs and think AI will lead to widespread unemployment.
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Are they right to be worried?
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No, are they right to be worried?
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Absolutely.
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Are we going to start on that low?
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Yes, I have to believe that we are going to see unemployment rising in the next two to three years.
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Some sectors will see 20-30% unemployment's unheard of numbers really.
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But that's not a challenge of AI.
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That's a challenge of a choice of the capitalists who run businesses
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that will choose to reduce costs by asking people to leave
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rather than increase the overall intelligence of an organization by empowering people with AI and technology to make people do more.
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But is it not unrealistic to expect companies not to use AI to save money
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and improve the bottom line at the end of the day?
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So the idea of saving money in itself is actually a very complex idea
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because at an individual level every organization wants to save money
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but if you if every organization in the UK
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or anywhere in the world would save money by laying people off you're wiping out the consumption side of GDP
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and when you do that what ends up happening is
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that people will not have the purchasing power to even buy what you what you're making
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because they won't have the income because they won't have the income and
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so you know in a very interesting way in a very
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individualistic level uh you know a company may benefit from laying off people
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but at you know for the economy at large it's actually quite risky for the economy
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so victor tell us about you then because you have a company that you basically,
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tell me if I get this wrong,
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you basically employ actors to let you use their face
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and their voice I imagine to create training videos and that kind of thing.
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So they give their consent,
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but obviously that then means they don't have a job with you after that,
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they've just got that one.
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Job losses, are you as worried as Mo?
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I think we'll definitely see displacement of jobs.
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Does that mean losses?
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I think it depends on the timeline that we're talking about.
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I think if we look at a three,
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five, ten year timeline, I think we will find things to do.
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I think work will change.
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I don't subscribe to the idea that businesses will just save costs.
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I think on the contrary,
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what we're seeing right now is that businesses will develop more products and humans will change what they do.
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I think a lot of the busy work that we do today,
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we can probably replace with AI.
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But I tend to think that great companies today consist of great people.
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And I think in five or ten years,
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great companies will still consist of great people.
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If you go back 50 years in time and you told everyone
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that most people's job would be sitting at a desk and looking into a screen,
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no one would believe you, right?
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We've gone through this progression many times in history before and there will for sure be a disruption, I think.
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But I'm very optimistic that humans will find ways to play status games.
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We will do much more than we could before
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and I think there will be a lot of new jobs in the future think
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that when you look at what is most valuable in society it is generally what is the most scarce
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and what's about to happen right now is
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that what has been very scarce which is software development numerical jobs analytical jobs
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that will be much easier to do with technology
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and i think the value of human relations
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and human connection is going to go up very very significantly
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and the for a consumer to talk to a human
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or business talk to a human i think that'll be much more valuable in a in a year or two.
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Because it's not, I mean,
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we end up talking to chatbots a lot, don't we?
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I mean, so you think we're going to get less of that?
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Because at the moment it feels like we're getting more of that.
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I think we'll get more of that,
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but I think the value of the human in the loop,
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I think, will increase.
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But it won't be responding to it if your package is on the way.
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It will be something that's more valuable, more creative than that.
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Okay, we've got a few hands up already.
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Let's hear the man in the white T-shirt in the middle.
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I'm hedging my bets personally,
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purely because, you know, people like Sam Altman came out very recently in the past few days
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and he did say predictions that he previously made around job losses and things.
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he's kind of rolling back on them,
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so it feels as though they're still...
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We're clearly going through a massive period of change and there's lots of uncertainty,
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but it feels as though,
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you know, the ink isn't dry yet.
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There's still kind of, like,
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decisions to be made on where the future goes and whether there are as big a job losses,
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as they say.
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Well, as you know, when you come along,
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be part of our audience,
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we talk to you at some length about your experiences as well as your politics and everything else.
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And there's a few people that I particularly wanted to talk to.
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So Richard, Richard Gagin, you're here at the front.
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So we're talking about job losses.
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There's also been a report out today about young people not in education,
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employment or training, quite how bad the job market is.
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So what's your experience?
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Yeah, so I just graduated like two weeks ago with a degree in computer science
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and I've been specifically applying for kind of software engineering roles.
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So, so far I'd say I've applied to over 150 positions and 150.
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Yeah, I've got friends and I know people online applying for like hundreds of positions globally.
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It's sort of because like these companies are using AI to replace software engineering, like entry-level roles.
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It means that it's really hard and like really competitive to get these roles out of university.
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And I feel like this is just going to keep going forward as these AI companies develop better
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and better tools like so how does
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that make you feel about your future job prospects i mean
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obviously like i started back in 2022 i had like sort of no idea
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that i mean none of us said
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that this ai bubble would kind of boom um
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so kind of software engineering say it's really like the primarily
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primary career path people would take like coming out of a computer science degree
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so now it feels like that career is sort of not safe at all
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and in 20 years time i feel like even even like 10 years time,
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I feel like it might not even exist at all.
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So now I've got to feel like I've got to pivot and find something else.
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So, Laura, how right are people to be worried about job losses?
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I mean, I think it's a very reasonable thing to worry about.
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We have seen, so the gentleman in the white shirt made a really good point.
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There's a very big difference between predicting the future,
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which we've got lots of data and evidence that show
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that humans are really bad that and in fact that experts are worse than people that know nothing about it.
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Well that's a bit of a story.
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Yes, you have to be careful what you ask people,
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future prediction is very tricky.
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Well what about the question our audience is asking,
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research suggests 7 or 10 workers are worried about their jobs,
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are they right to be worried?
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They are, so I think we have seen,
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you know, without predicting the future,
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a genuine collapse in the job market for the younger people
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that isn't necessarily borne out for people further on in their careers.
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I think there's been a 16% decline in entry-level jobs since ChatGPT came out,
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not all necessarily because of that.
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I think I saw 28% of graduate jobs sort of in the past year or so.
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So you're looking at something that is currently a real problem.
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And we have all these lovely predictions that say,
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you know, by 2030, there'll be 170 million new jobs
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and the loss of 92 million old jobs and that people need to transition.
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So you've got Two problems,
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is that right and all of these new jobs will be created?
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And then secondly, do you keep the education system up
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and do you have a place for these people who are caught in that transition point which is happening right now?
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So I don't know the answer but I think yes,
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it's a very reasonable thing to worry about.
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Man there with a white shirt with the glasses, yeah.
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I think on the new technology coming in,
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a couple of examples I've come across.
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The first one was when spreadsheets came out.
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Initially, I think the suspicion was that accountants would go out of work.
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But in fact, as opposed to the summing stuff,
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they were able to add a great deal more value and there were more accountants.
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And also, if you look at agriculture,
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years ago, the whole base of the US used to be involved in the fields,
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whereas now only 3 percentile,
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but there's far more productivity,
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which allows people to go and do different things.
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So I think, ultimately, if we can use technology and,
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you know, and then sort of develop ourselves,
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we'll be better for it.
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Okay, a woman there in the blue top.
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Thank you.
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I agree with what the panel said so far about kind of jobs,
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and I'm aware that there will be some jobs that AI may take.
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I think I'm concerned about the routine jobs
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that AI will likely replace are what help us build the experience to be competent.
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The sort of entry-level jobs.
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Yeah, I use AI in my job,
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but I'm able to critique it because I have the knowledge
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and skills in the area that I'm trying to use it for.
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If we fast forward 10 years
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and a cohort of students have just got used to producing
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things with AI without the competence to be able to critique it,
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challenge it or anything like that,
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they're not going to be able to use it properly.
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Well, we've got some in the audience.
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Charles, you're at the front here,
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and you've got direct experience.
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You run your own company,
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I believe,
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and you've been using AI to be able to reduce the workforce just tell us a bit about
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that well we haven't reduced a lot
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because at this stage we're experimenting with vast amounts of AI we see the technology capable to do
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so much that we don't we can't fathom how far we can go with it
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so we're in a phase of experimentation I would say over
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90% of what we try doesn't really work yet we can
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imagine in a few years it might some things can be immediately applied then it might reduce jobs now
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that has happened and that's happened with you and that's happened with us
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and it will continue to happen to everybody in the industry
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because it's such an obvious use case
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but it's very few today what we can't understand very well is how many new opportunities it will create
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but we know there will be but it's hard for us to see them yet
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so we're in an experimentation phase it's actually adding costs to
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us today then reducing costs is a little bit of reduction and a lot of experimentation which is expensive.
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The expectation is in the next two or three years those will yield new services or new opportunities.
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How we exploit those is still nebulous.
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But I think the point was made earlier,
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we are very bad at predicting but we're very good at experimenting and that's the phase we're in now.
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So Darren, one thing that struck me about what Mo had to say,
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watch case we don't know what's coming exactly
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but you've got job I mean there there are jobs being
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laid off you've got standard chartered it's down 8,000 people BT predicts 55,000 fewer employees
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when in the decade got Amazon already got rid of 14,000
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it's got something like 16,000 more to come whether that's all AI
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or not is not apparent it's any AI is being laid at the door of some
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if not all of those and one thing that Mo mentioned was
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if people aren't working who's going to be paying the taxes and paying for all the services that we use.
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Now is this something you're even thinking about?
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It is and it's deeply personal and political as well as an interest for government.
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So as a Labour Party politician our kind of mission of sharing power,
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wealth and opportunity amongst the many
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and not the few is I would argue more relevant today than it was
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when my party was created to represent the interest of workers at the start of the 20th century
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and the reason I say that is
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because the UK economy is around 80% services
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and the service industry jobs are the ones
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that are the most at risk of the large language models
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and front of AI tools that are being developed
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so the challenge for us as political leaders
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and the challenge for all of us as a country
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that relies on creating our wealth from the service industry is
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how do we shape this technology in the interests of the British economy
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and the British people as opposed to just allowing the market to rip through to take away jobs
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and to extract wealth from the UK and send it predominantly to US big tech companies.
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So what are you coming up with because Because,
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I mean, there are so many unknowns in this particular topic,
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but if, and this is happening at an exponential rate,
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so you need to be thinking fast,
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you need to be thinking now.
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So, do you have any solutions?
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The government is working on a whole range of issues.
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One of them is around training and skill support.
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So are we giving young people the skills and degrees
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and technical training that's best suited to the modern economy coming out of the education system,
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or do we need to work with those providers to make sure
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that you're not having to go back and think a second time about what you might want to be educated.
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But Darren, what about this bigger point that
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if there are fewer people in work you're going to get fewer taxes paid
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and you're going to have less of an income as a nation,
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what are you going to do about that if that comes to pass?
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That can't come to pass because the maths just doesn't add up for us as a country.
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We're already an ageing population with fewer people paying tax in work and higher demand on public services,
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so we've got to do two things.
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We have to make sure we create wealth in the UK that is reinvested back into the UK,
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but on public services we have to use things like AI
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to make sure we can provide better services more efficiently at
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a lower cost to achieve better outcomes for people who want to use them more.
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So that's all things you want to do,
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but I haven't heard how you're going to do it.
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We're doing a number of these things already.
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So on public services for example,
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we are creating the technology so that you can log in and prove who you are
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into the gov.uk app so
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that we can help you get access to services more efficiently than being on the phone
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or waiting for a letter to come through the post.
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The big message here is that this can be a huge threat to the UK economy
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and it's right that people worry about that,
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but it can also be an enormous opportunity for Britain.
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We've seized the benefits of industrial revolutions in the past.
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We have huge strengths and assets here in the UK to be able to seize them again,
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but you need political leaders you need business leaders working in partnership with us
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and we need each and every worker in this country
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and young person in this country to be given the skills
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to step up into this national endeavor julia i completely understand why people would be worried
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but as we've heard from the panel there's a real range of quite differing scenarios about how this plays out and that
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and actually the early evidence is quite mixed on this the
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gentleman in the audience talked about how he's applying ai
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but actually not very clear yet how it's going to make a difference to his business
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and actually a lot of companies which have been encouraged to
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use ai to transform their internal systems are finding it's not giving them the productivity gains
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that they had anticipated
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and now the cost of tokens is going up then the
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relative cost uh versus humans is actually a slightly different calculation now
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and i think one of the obvious own goals from the government on this is
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that it has made the employment of humans more expensive
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and added a lot of regulation and complexity to that and
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that has made it very difficult particularly
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when it comes to young people people do not want to take the risk of employing a young person
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and I think this is going to prove to be a real mistake not just from the government
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but from companies themselves about not building that talent pipeline
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but Julia in fairness and we've talks a lot on this program over many weeks
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and months about the arguments going backwards towards whether the government putting increasing employers national insurance is a good
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or a bad thing but just looking big picture for a minute
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because in one sense there is a juggernaut coming our way
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which is AI which could eradicate a lot of jobs
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or might possibly create new ones we don't know
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so what's happening now in terms of employers national say is
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that not just tinkering around the edge in terms of the difference that is coming on.
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I don't think so.
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I think if you view it as a collective,
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Fiona, if I'm in government,
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you've got to give businesses the tools to win the race, right?
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And labour is increasing the cost of employing people.
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It's increasing the cost of energy so that these tech companies can't base themselves here.
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It's creating regulatory uncertainty.
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It's doing a very bad job at applying AI within government,
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so the cost of government is increasing.
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There have been 8,000 more civil servants under labour than previously.
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They undone a lot of the great AI tools that Laura was building when she was in government.
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So are you worried that lots of people are going to lose their jobs
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and if so what do you what would you do about it?
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I think any responsible politician has to be worried about that scenario.
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And so what would you suggest doing about it?
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Well I say I would give companies the tools to win to make sure
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that they are growing as companies
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and they are able to base themselves in this country that they are not looking at other countries, other jurisdictions.
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You can't wish away this technology but you can try
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and build a really strong ecosystem in this country
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and i think on those basic fundamentals labor's getting a lot
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of things wrong okay no you wanted to come in there
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i think i i think that's spot on to be honest
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the only answer you have is to keep growing the economy
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in ways where more people will have jobs now ai just to answer the gentleman in in the white t-shirt
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there is a very big difference between technology of the past
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which was a tool we were building tools that people could use.
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If you're a taxi driver and we give you a navigation system,
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you may be able to do your job a little better.
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You know, an AI which replaces that altogether,
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a self-driving car will not even need the driver in the first place.
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Having said that, we live in the era of augmented intelligence.
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So we haven't yet gone to an era where AI can replace everything,
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but it can make every single person smarter.
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And I think the biggest challenge,
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if we talk about the UK economy,
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and I have no right to comment on that,
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is that you're outsourcing AI to other economies instead of building stuff within your economy that can create more jobs.
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You're basically giving it all away across the Atlantic to the other side,
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and that's a massive, massive risk.
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Okay, I'm going to, I want to move on.
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Can I come back just very quickly on one of Julia's points?
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Really quickly.
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I would just say that making it easier to sack people
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and not protect workers in this environment is the complete opposite of what we should be doing
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so I'm very happy to defend our employment rights legislation
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but I just say as well politically there was a whole list of things there we can agree
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and disagree on actually political parties need to come together on this issue
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because it is a big issue facing our country
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and Britain will either rise or fall if we get this right
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or wrong so we need to get beyond the traditional political bickering
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and come together with the strategy to make it Darren and it's one that Tony Blair made of your government this week.
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And it's important that we get it right.
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We're getting the basics right.
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Let me move on.
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This is a huge topic.
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I want to try and at least touch the sides of it.
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