跟读练习: The 4 greatest threats to the survival of humanity - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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In January of 1995, Russia detected a nuclear missile headed its way.
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In January of 1995, Russia detected a nuclear missile headed its way.
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The alert went all the way to the president, who was deciding whether to strike back when another system contradicted the initial warning.
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What they thought was the first missile in a massive attack was actually a research rocket studying the Northern Lights.
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This incident happened after the end of the Cold War, but was nevertheless one of the closest calls we’ve had to igniting a global nuclear war.
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With the invention of the atomic bomb, humanity gained the power to destroy itself for the first time in our history.
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Since then, our existential risk— risk of either extinction or the unrecoverable collapse of human civilization— has steadily increased.
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It’s well within our power to reduce this risk, but in order to do so, we have to understand which of our activities pose existential threats now, and which might in the future.
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So far, our species has survived 2,000 centuries, each with some extinction risk from natural causes— asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, and the like.
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Assessing existential risk is an inherently uncertain business because usually when we try to figure out how likely something is, we check how often it's happened before.
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But the complete destruction of humanity has never happened before.
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While there’s no perfect method to determine our risk from natural threats, experts estimate it’s about 1 in 10,000 per century.
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Nuclear weapons were our first addition to that baseline.
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While there are many risks associated with nuclear weapons, the existential risk comes from the possibility of a global nuclear war that leads to a nuclear winter, where soot from burning cities blocks out the sun for years, causing the crops that humanity depends on to fail.
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We haven't had a nuclear war yet, but our track record is too short to tell if they’re inherently unlikely or we’ve simply been lucky.
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We also can’t say for sure whether a global nuclear war would cause a nuclear winter so severe it would pose an existential threat to humanity.
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The next major addition to our existential risk was climate change.
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Like nuclear war, climate change could result in a lot of terrible scenarios that we should be working hard to avoid, but that would stop short of causing extinction or unrecoverable collapse.
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We expect a few degrees Celsius of warming, but can’t yet completely rule out 6 or even 10 degrees, which would cause a calamity of possibly unprecedented proportions.
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Even in this worst-case scenario, it’s not clear whether warming would pose a direct existential risk, but the disruption it would cause would likely make us more vulnerable to other existential risks.
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The greatest risks may come from technologies that are still emerging.
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Take engineered pandemics.
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The biggest catastrophes in human history have been from pandemics.
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And biotechnology is enabling us to modify and create germs that could be much more deadly than naturally occurring ones.
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Such germs could cause pandemics through biowarfare and research accidents.
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Decreased costs of genome sequencing and modification, along with increased availability of potentially dangerous information like the published genomes of deadly viruses, also increase the number of people and groups who could potentially create such pathogens.
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Another concern is unaligned AI.
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Most AI researchers think this will be the century where we develop artificial intelligence that surpasses human abilities across the board.
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If we cede this advantage, we place our future in the hands of the systems we create.
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Even if created solely with humanity’s best interests in mind, superintelligent AI could pose an existential risk if it isn’t perfectly aligned with human values— a task scientists are finding extremely difficult.
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Based on what we know at this point, some experts estimate the anthropogenic existential risk is more than 100 times higher than the background rate of natural risk.
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But these odds depend heavily on human choices.
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Because most of the risk is from human action, and it’s within human control.
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If we treat safeguarding humanity's future as the defining issue of our time, we can reduce this risk.
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Whether humanity fulfils its potential— or not— is in our hands.
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本课概述
在本课中，您将通过分析与人类生存相关的四个主要威胁来提高英语发音和口语表达能力。我们将探讨核武器、气候变化、新兴技术以及人工智能对人类未来的影响。您将有机会通过shadowing技术，模仿演讲者的语音、语调和节奏，以期提高您的英语口语能力。
关键词汇与短语
- 核武器 (nuclear weapons)
- 气候变化 (climate change)
- 生存风险 (existential risk)
- 人工智能 (artificial intelligence)
- 生物技术 (biotechnology)
- 全球核战争 (global nuclear war)
- 世纪 (century)
- 人类文明 (human civilization)
练习技巧
为了更有效地进行口语练习，您可以采用shadowing技巧。观看视频时，注意演讲者的语速和语调。建议您在以下方面进行练习：
- 慢速观看：第一次播放时，可将视频速度调整到75%。这有助于您更好地理解每一个单词和句子的结构，提高英语发音的准确度。
- 反复模仿：在每个段落结束后，暂停视频进行跟读，尝试尽量与演讲者的语调和节奏保持一致，形成自己的shadow speech。
- 重播特定片段：如果您对某些短语或句子感到困难，可以反复播放这些片段，直到您能自信地复述出来。
- 自我录音：录制您的练习内容后，回放并检查与原始音频的差异，这样您能意识到并纠正发音上的问题。
通过坚持这些练习，您将能够更自如地使用英语，并在日常交流中展现出更高的流利度和自信心。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。