跟读练习: What Trump's victory means for the world - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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Hello, I'm Lucy Hawkins.
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Hello, I'm Lucy Hawkins.
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From the BBC World Service,
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this is The Global Story.
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Donald Trump is the winner in what could be the most consequential US presidential election in recent history.
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His victory comes in the context of multiple ongoing conflicts around the world and persistent instability in major global economies.
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International leaders are flocking to congratulate Mr Trump,
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but how might their governments be reacting behind closed doors?
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Today we're considering how the newly minted President-elect could make his presence felt in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine
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and the Middle East, in China, Europe and beyond.
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With me today is our diplomatic correspondent James Landau.
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Hi James.
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Hi.
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And what a result.
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Came quicker than many thought it would.
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It's a surprise for many,
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but I know you've been speaking to diplomats around the world,
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embassies and residences around the world this week,
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and I wonder what you think the reaction is to this result.
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I think inevitably there's going to be a sense of shock simply because when you've been listening to the broadcast,
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listening to the pollsters, telling everybody it's knife edge,
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you know, touch and go,
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don't know which way it's going to go.
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To have such a decisive result as this is clearly going to come as a surprise.
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Do I think the victory of Donald Trump has come as a surprise?
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No, I think everybody has been realistic enough to know that this has always been a very clear possibility.
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And preparing for it.
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Well, the question is, that's a really good point.
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Have they been preparing for it?
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I've spoken to a lot of European diplomats about this,
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and they all say, yes,
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no, we must prepare for it.
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And then I say, well, what are you doing?
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Well, we can't anticipate it because we'll be annoying the previous incumbent if you start making assumptions about elections.
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And, you know, we have to leave it up to the Americans to make their own decisions.
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I think there is genuinely a sense that certainly in the European diplomatic world
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that not enough has been done to so-called Trump-proof Europe from this future presidency.
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OK, we're going to get into Trump proofing foreign policy and take a whistle stop tour around the globe for this episode.
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And the conflict that comes to mind straight away,
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James, of course, is Ukraine as it continues to battle Russia's ongoing invasion.
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Remind us what Donald Trump has said before about the war in Ukraine
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and what he'll do to bring an end to it.
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Well, the first thing I always say is there's quite often a gap between what Donald Trump says and what he does.
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And sometimes what he says can be contradictory.
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so it's not always a good predictor of what he actually intends to do because sometimes it's part of a negotiating ploy.
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Sometimes it's just difficult to work out because,
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as I say, the statements are contradictory.
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However, he has made it pretty clear that he wants this war to end.
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He wants to be part of the process of making that war end.
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He's spoken of doing a deal.
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He's spoken of making calls to both President Zelensky and to President Putin.
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during this period now when he's president-elect,
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i.e. before he actually enters the White House,
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he wants there to be some kind of a deal.
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There's an expectation that US support will diminish in the long term.
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The question is, what is the pace of that while any kind of talk of a deal,
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a peace settlement, comes into play?
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Let's bring you the reaction from Kiev.
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Here's our Ukraine correspondent, James Waterhouse.
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It is hard to see what security guarantees Ukraine can get to secure its long-term future.
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That's certainly the argument from here.
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But President Zelensky has a knack of when there are political difficulties,
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when the war isn't going his way and it hasn't been for some time.
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He tries to leverage this into future assurances and commitments from his allies,
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and it will be no different with Donald Trump.
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Our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg is in Sochi with this assessment.
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Well, it feels like the Kremlin is going out of its way to give the impression
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that it's not excited at all by Donald Trump's victory.
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A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov,
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said that, as far as he knows,
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Vladimir Putin has no plans to congratulate Donald Trump.
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He said America is an unfriendly country which is involved directly and indirectly in a war with Russia.
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Can I ask you about the relationships in this picture
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and what difference that might make? we've already had a response from President Zelensky.
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How would you describe the relationship between President Trump and President Zelensky?
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And can we learn anything from that reaction that we've had already?
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There is a relationship.
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I wouldn't say it's very close.
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I wouldn't say it's terribly warm.
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What was interesting, what President Zelensky has said in response to the victory of Mr. Trump is
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that he spoke of the importance
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and how much Ukraine relies on what he called a strong bipartisan support of the United States.
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And he also sort of hinted that,
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look, a powerful Ukrainian army could play a role in European security.
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In other words, he essentially made the argument to Mr. Trump,
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I need your support.
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But you know what?
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I can also give some of that support back.
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I know you want Europe to step up more on its defence front.
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I could potentially help with that.
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That was the message he was sending.
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But, you know, let's not beat about the Russia.
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The Ukrainians are very, very concerned about the uncertainty,
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what a Trump presidency would involve.
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And one of the things they're concerned about,
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surely, is the fact that President Trump has been very warm towards President Putin at times.
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We know he's an admirer of Vladimir Putin.
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And he said as such,
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while standing shoulder to shoulder with Mr Zelensky when they did a little photo op in New York.
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So we have a very good relationship,
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and I also have a very good relationship,
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as you know, with President Putin.
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And I think if we win,
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I think we're going to get it resolved very quickly very work.
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I really think we're going to get it.
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I think we have more good relations.
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Oh, I see.
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You know, Mr. Trump likes to do a deal.
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He likes to trade.
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He wants to do a deal,
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but he doesn't want to be seen to be rolling over to the Kremlin's demands.
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That is the crucial point.
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That is absolutely the crucial point.
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And that's why Mr. Putin's attitude is really crucial here.
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Because if Vladimir Putin reaches the conclusion,
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now is not the time for me to do a deal.
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I'm making gains in the East.
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And so the question is then, what happens then?
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If Mr. Trump has put forward a deal and said,
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let's bang heads together.
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And the Russians say, no,
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we'll just carry on fighting.
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At that point, does Donald Trump say,
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OK, I'm going to give some more long range missiles to the Ukrainians.
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And you know what?
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I'm going to let them deep fire into Russia as deep as they want to go,
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far as they want to go.
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Donald Trump does not fear escalation as much as Joe Biden and his national security adviser,
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Jake Sullivan, do.
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Is another worry for the Ukrainians,
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not just President Trump in charge,
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but also what's happening with Congress,
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that actually, you know, they are making decisions on how much support to give Ukraine,
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how much money to send Ukraine as well.
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And we've seen a massive tilt back to the Republicans.
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Yeah, I mean, that will be a strategic blockage in the long run
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that will make it harder to get these things through.
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It's likely during President Biden's lame duck period,
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he will use every sort of legal presidential power he's got
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outside of Congress to keep as much money flowing to Ukraine as he can.
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But once President Trump takes office,
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once the new Congress is established,
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yes, I think you're absolutely right, it will get harder.
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Because there is a mechanism,
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isn't there, for President Biden to release $5 billion?
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Yes, a chunk of funds.
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You can do a chunk of funds.
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The question for Europeans is what can and should we do to fill that gap left by the Americans?
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We'll get on to Europe in a moment,
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but let's turn to the other big conflict,
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which is the Middle East.
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Israel continuing its war with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon
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and it remains unclear the extent to which direct engagement between Israel and Iran may continue to escalate as well, James.
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But he's pretty popular in Israel, President Trump.
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So, yeah, the Israelis are happy and not just the Netanyahu government.
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I think, you know, Israelis in general thought
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that they basically had a fairer crack of the whip under Donald Trump than they did in Joe Biden,
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who they always saw as a sort of,
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you know, an American who was always saying,
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well, please don't do this and please don't do that.
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The problem is this.
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When Donald Trump was in power last time,
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there was no war in the Middle East.
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There is now.
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The world has changed.
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And so the question, the immediate question now is,
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if in the next few weeks,
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Benjamin Netanyahu says, right, I now want to target Iran's nuclear facilities,
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something that the Biden administration has been very,
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very firm about saying, no,
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no, no, we are not going to support you in this.
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But there's a real question now is,
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will Donald Trump allow Israel a freer hand to fight the war in a way that it can't at the moment?
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Lots of people say the Americans have not been restraining Israel enough,
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but there has been some restraint.
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Will that change under Donald Trump?
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Or will he, as he as he has said,
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be a peacemaker and say,
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I don't want to get involved in other people's wars?
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He might try and do both.
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He might say to the Israelis,
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I'm going to give you a free hand to complete it,
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to finish it, to bring it to a close.
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Our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette,
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is in Jerusalem, and she's been assessing the reaction of Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
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It's significant that the Israeli prime minister,
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Benjamin Netanyahu, has become one of the first foreign leaders to speak to Donald Trump.
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And the Israeli readout of their conversation,
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which was described as warm and cordial,
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is said to have discussed Israel's security, including the Iranian threat.
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Donald Trump has often urged Israel to,
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in his words, finish the job.
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We'll soon find out exactly what he means.
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It remains to be seen,
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too, how much leverage Donald Trump will have over Benjamin Netanyahu because no one else has had much so far.
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Correct.
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And with all these things,
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any sense of personal slight,
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any sense of being ignored,
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suddenly the calculation can change.
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Because with Mr. Trump, the lesson we learnt from his first term is personality is as important as policy.
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James, what about the wider region?
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They were pretty quick for Gulf states to come out and congratulate Donald Trump as well,
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given what we saw with the Abraham Accords,
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but also some of the things,
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the relationship that they've been building up with the US.
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Are they going to be happy
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I think they will like the fact that Donald Trump will want to clearly step up pressure on Iran.
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It's one thing that he's been quite vocal about in a relatively foreign policy free election campaign.
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We know that Donald Trump has spoken about trying to sort of come up with the Abraham Accords Mark II.
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In other words, the elusive deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel,
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trying to normalise relations between those two countries.
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Now, it's still seen a long way away from the fighting that we're engaged in now.
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You know, you need to have some sort of peace settlement,
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some kind of ceasefire, some kind of exchange, some kind of stabilisation.
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Then you might just be able to get to a place where you can talk about broader political deals.
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Time to look at China, James.
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And we know that relations between the two countries,
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they're not as bad as they were a couple of years ago.
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They are still pretty icy,
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though, and they could be set to change in a big way because of Donald Trump's approach to China,
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particularly when it comes to what he considers to be the unfair trade relationship.
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What do you think that could mean in terms of the U.S and its relationship with China?
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OK, the first point is that there are already trade frictions between China and the United States,
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and there would have been trade frictions too that would get deeper if Kamala Harris had been elected.
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So this is a bipartisan thing.
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So whatever Trump does would be a continuation of existing policy,
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but with rocket boosters underneath it.
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And by that primarily is his threat to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US market.
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Now, if that's what he does,
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the potential there is for a trade war.
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And then the potential for a trade war that engulfs the global economy.
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Many countries around the world,
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if this happens, are going to have to make choices.
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Do they go with the Chinese or do they go with the Americans on this?
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because the Americans will put up a huge amount of pressure on all its allies to say,
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we're doing this, you've got to do likewise.
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In many ways, a lot of America's allies sort of had a holiday from this
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because of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East,
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the run-up to this election.
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Those pressures, the electoral pressure is now gone,
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and I think it's going to make some tough choices.
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And Laura Bicker in Beijing told us the latest on the relationship between China and the US.
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Beijing will be bracing itself for the return of Donald Trump.
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And for one reason will be trade.
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And that is because during the last Trump presidency,
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trade put tariffs on around $300 billion of Chinese goods.
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And he's threatening to do so again.
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And James, in terms of regional security,
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do we know where President Trump sees the US and its relationship with Taiwan
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and supporting Taiwan possible intervention if there was a conflict.
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It's incredibly hard.
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It's incredibly hard to know that.
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That is in part because the Americans don't want us to know.
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They want there to be some strategic ambiguity over this.
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But also, we don't know whether or not Donald Trump actually will live up to his word of saying,
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I'm not going to start new wars.
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He loves to be the man who ends forever wars.
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but equally is he somebody who's going to give up all US leadership in the world?
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That's the really interesting question,
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which is one that I don't think the Make America Great protectionism
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and introspection of the first term ever really had to answer that question.
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You mentioned Donald Trump and his way of thinking about America's place in the world.
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When it comes to their more traditional allies,
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particularly here in Europe, It looks very different in Europe now than it did when he was president before.
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When you think about the rise of some of the more right-leaning parties in European countries,
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Emmanuel Macron is the only major,
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I think, surviving world leader.
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How do you think he's going to deal with this new Europe?
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He will try and deal with Europe,
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as he did before, on a bilateral basis, on a transactional basis.
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He will try and peel everybody off so he can do separate trade.
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deals as much as he can.
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It's very hard within the European Union.
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And I think that he will continue to put more pressure on the Europeans to spend more on their own defense.
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And there'll be usual rumbles threatening NATO.
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I think the really interesting question is this,
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is the Trump presidency going to be the wake-up call that Europe has been needing,
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a catalyst that essentially gets the Europeans to say,
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you know what, we've got to get off the pot and make some tough decisions about our own defence.
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What about economic growth in Europe?
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Is now the moment where Europe says, actually, you know what?
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In the face of this economic threat,
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if we are going to stay alive,
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We have to agree a new plan to make Europe more competitive.
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And thirdly, what about China?
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Europe is divided about China at the moment.
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Does the election of Trump change that thinking?
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Does it wake people up in Europe?
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Because at the moment, as I said at the beginning,
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there's a lot of people who haven't really prepared for this.
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You briefly mentioned the fact that he's always angry that Europe's not paying its fair share when it comes to defence,
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and also that constant threat when he was last president that he would withdraw the US from NATO.
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Does he have more leverage this time around on those two things?
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I mean, do you think that NATO,
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the threat to withdraw from NATO,
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he could make good on?
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Or could he encourage countries and successfully make them pay for more?
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Look, I think his driving force here is not some sort of ideological hatred of NATO or anything like that.
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It's just this sense that America is being taken for granted,
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that the Europeans are free riders.
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If the Europeans, as they have done,
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can address that by increasing their defence expenditure,
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which, you know, the numbers are creeping up.
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At the moment, every NATO member state has to spend 2% of their national wealth on defence.
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I think that target's going to have to go up.
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I think that's going to have to go up to 2.5%, maybe even 3%.
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Countries like Poland are already meeting that target,
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and so we'll be fine.
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The UK would be stretched.
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A lot of other countries in the south of Europe would really struggle to do that.
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A lot of people think he's an isolationist,
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America First obviously being his sort of main platform.
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But do you actually imagine
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that America is going to retreat from its role as the world's leader on some of these big issues?
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When we also know that Donald Trump likes a deal.
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He likes to be seen to be making a deal.
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He said to people he wouldn't mind winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
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He has an ego.
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maybe he is the one to close the deal on things like Ukraine and the Middle East.
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The optimistic view is that,
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yes, he's a disruptor, he's a changemaker,
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he will generate fresh thinking on issues.
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It might be on Ukraine,
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it might be on the Middle East.
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And that therefore, instead of a sort of slow,
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gradual continuation of not quite giving enough support to Ukraine,
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not quite constraining Israel enough under the previous regime, that could change things.
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My own inclination is, you know,
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he will engage in things in the world where they matter to his voters at home.
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But the point is this,
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is the world has already noticed that U.S influence is declining.
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Countries around the world are forming more ad hoc relationships,
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partnerships, occasionally alliances with other countries around the world.
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And I think that Donald Trump will be quite happy for that to happen if it's nothing to do with him.
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But could his tactics possibly work?
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I mean, I have this great quote from him.
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I don't want them to know what I'm doing.
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He's talking about his allies, his adversaries, whoever.
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Part of my value is the perception by adversaries and allies that I am unpredictable.
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I mean, does he have this sort of huge strategic advantage that he just doesn't behave like anyone else I've negotiated with?
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That is an advantage that means that,
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you know,
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Mr. Putin will find it probably harder to work out what Donald Trump will do than he will with Joe Biden.
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Joe Biden has 40, 50 years worth of foreign policy baggage that allows you to know roughly where he's going to go,
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less so with Donald Trump.
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And I think that sense of uncertainty is useful in certain moments.
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But it's not a strategic advantage.
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If you are seen as a leader who will change his or her mind because of pressure,
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because of changing circumstances, because of what a tweet you've seen,
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then in that case, they will rely on that unpredictability unpredictability.
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And if you can base your assumption on that,
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then you can use that as a strategic gain when you're trying to negotiate with him or play him.
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We know what is predictable about Donald Trump is that he's transactional,
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he's bilateral, and he can be capricious.
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But what is unpredictable is the immediate decision-making processes that sometimes can go in unexpected places.
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It is going to be an interesting four years.
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It's going to be all right.
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James, thank you so much.
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Thank you very much.
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在这个全球化迅速发展的时代，了解政治动态对于语言学习者来说至关重要。从BBC世界服务所播出的《全球故事》播客中，我们听到了有关唐纳德·特朗普胜选的议论。这场选举不仅是美国历史上具有重要意义的事件，同时也对全球产生深远影响。节目主持人露西·霍金斯与外交记者詹姆斯·兰道讨论了这次选举结果可能引发的国际反响，尤其是在紧张局势加剧的乌克兰和中东等地区。通过分析这些对话，我们可以学习到新词汇以及表达意见和分析当前事件的能力。
日常交流中的五个常用短语
- What a result. - 多么令人震惊的结果。
- Have they been preparing for it? - 他们是否对此有所准备？
- We can't anticipate it. - 我们无法预测这个结果。
- Making assumptions about elections. - 对选举进行假设。
- There’s quite often a gap between what he says and what he does. - 他所说的和所做的之间常常存在差距。
掌握这些短语可以帮助你在日常对话中流畅表达，对话时更自然，同时增加你的英语口语练习能力。
逐步跟读指南
为了提高你在英语口语方面的流利度，尤其是在理解复杂对话时，可以使用“影子练习”（shadow speech）的方法。以下是具体步骤：
- 观看视频：在YouTube上找到《全球故事》播客，尽量集中注意力听每一句话。
- 初步理解：第一次观看时，专注于总体内容，不要担心完全理解。
- 逐句跟读：第二次观看时，暂停视频，尝试模仿主持人和嘉宾的语调和节奏。这是“shadow speak”的关键。
- 重复练习：将你跟读的句子大声念出，多次练习直至自然流利。这将提升你的英语口语练习效果。
- 交流反馈：如果可能，与他人分享你的练习，获取反馈，改善你的发音和表达。
使用这些技巧，你将能更有效地提升你的英语口语能力，并利用“影子练习”逐步达到更高的流利度和自信心。通过看YouTube学英语，你不仅能提高听力，还能增强口说能力，让你的学习之旅更具乐趣。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。