शैडोइंग अभ्यास: South East Asia scrambles for oil in wake of Iran war - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service - YouTube के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

South East Asia is a long way from the war in Iran, but the region is really feeling the economic fallout.

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South East Asia is a long way from the war in Iran, but the region is really feeling the economic fallout.

In some countries, petrol stations are closing.

Employees are encouraged to work from home, and governments are scrambling to find alternatives to Middle Eastern oil.

So why is South East Asia so exposed to this oil shock?

I'm Mariko Oi in Singapore and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service.

Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories unpacked by those who know them best.

And today I have the BBC's Asia business editor, Maura Fogarty. Hey.

Plus I have Panisa Aemocha, from BBC Thai who's based in Bangkok.

And I also have Thuong Le, who's a journalist with the BBC World Service.

Welcome, all. Hi.

So this war in Iran, it's been going on for several weeks now.

there've been severe disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major route for oil and gas.

So that's pushed up oil prices above $100 per barrel several times now.

Obviously, this is affecting everyone, but we're focusing today on South East Asia because the region relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil.

So let's start with you, Panisa.

What's it been like? What's been the impact in Thailand?

Let's start in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand.

So always all the time we've seen a lot of cars.

And now at the moment the drivers are anxiously just going from petrol station to another petrol station looking for their tank to be filled.

Fortunately, in Bangkok there's still some oil for all of them.

But outside of Bangkok, that's another story.

We're not only talking about cars that have to line up just outside of the petrol stations to the main road, but we are talking about people, real people that actually camp with tents inside the gas stations.

And have they been advised to work from home trying to, I guess, limit the the usage of any electricity?

Yeah, definitely. And on top of that, let me bring you to the famous and quite a viral moment of the policy to like take off the suit and wear short sleeve as well.

Thailand is quite a humid and hot season and we are entering the, the hot season at the moment.

So that's part of it. We reduce the air condition to 27°C.

Normally you put it at 25 or 26.

And of course, as you mentioned, work from home for a lot of governmental officials that don't need to work with citizens.

So you were just talking about how people are encouraged not to wear suits.

I remember in Japan, the government started this cool biz campaign in the summer to try not to use air conditioning too much and so on.

So people were encouraged to just wear short sleeved shirts as well.

Can you just tell us a bit more about it?

Like how many people are affected and are people actually taking it up?

I mean, I have a suit here and I'm not wearing at the moment.

But the whole idea is actually based on usage of electricity, right?

And in Thailand, we still use electricity that produced by fossil fuels, hence use oil.

That's where the whole policy is stemming from.

But this is not a mandatory as in it's not like regulated that if you not follow this, you will get penalised.

And also it's predominantly announced to the governmental officials.

So they kind of like if you can do it take off because Thailand is very hot and humid.

And Thuong, you've been looking at the situation in Vietnam where you're originally from, what are your friends and family telling you about what's been happening there?

So if we are looking at the bigger picture since late February, gasoline is up more than 50%, and diesel is up more than 70%. Diesel is very important in Vietnam because it powers transportation, agriculture, fishing and industry.

So the impact is visible on the ground.

Last night, price adjustment triggering long queues at petrol stations.

And like in Thailand, many drivers are rushing to fill up, some even bringing extra containers to store fuel and ferry fares in Ho Chi Minh City have gone up.

And on social media, people are posting pictures of signs in restaurants telling their customer that the price will be going up.

Vietnam depends heavily on imported energy.

We're talking about nine to ten tons, millions of refined fuel and over 14 million tons of crude every year.

So when global price moves, it hits Vietnam very fast.

So, Maura, can you put this into, I guess historical context. Is this kind of oil or energy shock or panic, however you want to phrase it, has the region seen something like this before?

So the examples we've heard today from both Thuong and Panisa are, are quite extraordinary because very quickly they have filtered down to your average person on the street.

So it's really quite immediate given that, you know, the war in Iran has only been, we're into the third week of it happening, but this region is particularly sensitive to oil.

There have been shocks in the past, twice in the 1970s.

And what that did was it caused severe inflation in the region, and it slowed down economic growth.

And most of the countries that we're talking about are countries where rapid economic growth is very important to create jobs, right?

These are not rich countries to begin with.

The other thing I want to mention is that if you remember back at the beginning of 1998 or middle of 1998, when we had the mass riots happening in Indonesia as part of the Asian Financial Crisis that ultimately took down a government, right?

When Suharto was in power. If you look back then, part of what caused those riots was the rising cost of living.

Rice, cooking oil all became more expensive and the government had to remove some of the fuel subsidies on the price of kerosene, gasoline, petrol and as a result, the average person saw an increase in fuel prices and that made them extremely unhappy with how the whole government was dealing with the situation.

So there is still very recent memory, especially in some countries, about instability as a result of fuel hikes in the region.

Obviously, we had Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which also pushed up oil prices.

How does this compare to then?

Because obviously we're talking about the whole of Middle East, not just one or two countries, but, you know, some countries in this part of the world, they do also produce oil as well, don't they?

It's true. And the key difference, I would say here is that with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, what we saw was an increase in global oil prices.

What we're seeing now is an increase in global oil prices and worries about the supply of oil.

So it's a double whammy, right? You've got high oil prices and you're not sure about the supplies of oil coming into your country.

Most of these countries in the region - Southeast Asia, Thailand, Vietnam, they don't have very long fuel stocks, whereas countries like Japan and China have much bigger and longer fuel supplies that they can withstand the shock a little bit better.

Yeah. So I want to get to what Mauro was just talking about in terms of how the governments, various governments are trying to help ordinary citizens from this shock.

So, Panisa, in Thailand, what is the government saying about it, doing about this?

So in Thailand we have the oil fund.

So basically this oil fund was actually introduced based on the oil shock in the past that Maura has been talking about.

So the government at the time said this fund to make sure that the oil price is stabilised, especially for diesel, as Thuong said.

Similarly, we also predominantly use diesel here for our cultures and also for transportation.

So they have set the price that okay with this oil fund, they will subsidise it to make sure that the price will not go above the threshold.

And this has been happening as well for the first 15 days after the February 28th, when the war began, the government announced that they will set up, they will do the, the pricing stabilise for 15 days.

But what come with that was a problem according to the opposition party and some of the analysts, the fact that the government announced it to the public that they're going to stabilise the price for 15 days, make some of the stakeholders in the supply chain have the incentive to hoard the fuel.

And hence, toward the beginning, some analysts said this prompt, some of the shortages of the oil.

What about the Vietnamese government? What are they doing about it?

I mean, it's got a pretty good relationship with Russia, for example.

You know, are they trying to source oil energy from elsewhere as well?

Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính is pushing for a faster shift to electric vehicles and more charging infrastructure.

So to reduce reliance on imported fuel, at the same time, the Politburo, the most powerful body of the Communist Party of Vietnam, is calling for fuel saving measures and asking the media to keep messaging stable to avoid panic.

And as you mentioned about Russia, the Prime Minister is having an official visit to Moscow from the 22nd to the 25th of March.

And over the past week, Vietnam has reached out to Middle Eastern countries as well as Japan, South Korea and Angola to secure crude oil supplies. If I can just jump in here.

I mean, I think Thuong raises some interesting points, right?

So all these different countries in South East Asia are now thinking, uh oh, we need to diversify where we're getting our fuel from and where we're getting our energy from.

So one, they're reaching out to other people or other countries that produce oil.

So she talked about Russia. The Philippines has already done that.

And interestingly, the Philippines is an ally of the United States and has already said, hey, Russia, can you give us some of your oil?

Right? Second thing is looking at renewable energy.

So a lot of these countries are now thinking, right, we need to kind of go a bit, you know, double down a bit faster on renewables so that we rely less on fossil fuels or crude oil and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) in particular.

So you see EVs being kind of rolled up a bit more quickly.

You might see nuclear power coming back into the mix of conversation again, for countries when they're looking at what, how they should be powering their economies.

And you might see some conversation around coal not too prevalent in most South East Asian countries, but still very prevalent in Asia Pacific as a whole region.

So that's kind of, you know, if you look forward, you start thinking about what these governments are thinking in terms of not wanting this to happen again and looking at that energy mix.

But that's that's an interesting point you point out right there.

When it comes to subsidising fuel prices this time around, I mean, Indonesia, they're spending quite a lot of taxpayers money to cushion the blow.

But that obviously makes their financial situation not so great, does it?

Right. So most of the governments in South East Asia are not running huge budget surpluses, right?

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They're actually running budget deficits.

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And they've issued... they're in, you know, by some measures, in some debt, they have to issue debt in order to fund their expenditures.

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You mentioned Indonesia. It's interesting.

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They budgeted that they would spend, they expected to spend $22 billion this year on fuel subsidies.

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That was based on a price of oil of around $70 a barrel.

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We're at 100. We're over 100 now, so you can just imagine what that's doing to that budget of theirs, right?

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Their fuel subsidy budget. Malaysia just came out, the prime minister of Malaysia put out a video where he spoke about the huge price of oil and how that has increased.

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And he stated that they have now the price of oil has gone up four times in the last week, and price of fuel has gone up four times in the last week.

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And they're now spending about $800 million per month on subsidies for fuel. Wow.

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Okay, so that's how much it's costing them.

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And it's gone up four times in the past month.

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So those are just two examples.

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I'm sure in other countries around the region, they're also grappling with how much can the government afford to continue to subsidise the price of fuel or let the general population feel the impact of it.

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Yeah. Especially given we don't know how much longer this conflict is going to go on.

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Panisa, you were earlier talking about this is not just about oil prices.

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What are other industries that have been affected?

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Let's talk about tourism because this is also is 13% of the GDP of Thailand.

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And when we talk about Thailand, right, we think about tourism.

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And it's a time coincidence, in less than a month it will be Songkran holiday.

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This is a national holiday. It's a big thing.

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And let's talk about for domestic first.

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This is the holiday because it's a long holiday.

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This year we have five days off and it's a holiday where people normally go back home. With New Year or Christmas, this is not the time for Thai people to go back home.

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But Songkran is like a national holiday where people will drive and they normally drive back home.

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But at the moment, according to the national poll, about 60% of people just don't plan to make any trip at all and about 15% cancel the trip.

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This is definitely devastating for, like, transportation and for tourism industry and everyone involved, right?

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We're talking about restaurants, we're talking about hotel, we're talking about local economy.

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Because when people who come work in the main city go back to their hometown, they bring in capital and they bring in money to spend there as well.

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So this is something to be aware of.

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And what about Vietnam, Thuong? Are there other industries that have been indirectly or directly affected by this?

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It's aviation sector because Vietnam relies on imports for more than two thirds of its jet fuel, with about 60% coming from China and Thailand, actually.

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So regulators say domestic refinery cannot significantly increase jet fuel output.

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So authorities have warned the aviation sector to prepare for possible flight reduction from this April.

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And also Vietnam is the regional manufacturing hub with major electronics and garment producer.

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So Vietnam feels shock from volatility from the oil market in everyday life and regarding production costs.

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So when oil price rise, it feeds straight into higher transport costs, higher production costs and ultimately higher price for consumers.

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So these are really good examples that you've given where it's not just about fuel prices or electricity prices, but that there are downstream effects or other effects on the economy, right?

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So if you think about it from two different perspectives, from the company's perspectives, all their costs are going up.

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Transportation costs, as Thuong has been talking about, has gone up, input costs into making things that get exported.

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Those costs go up as well. For flights, for example, if you're traveling, jet fuel prices have gone up.

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So plane tickets have gone up.

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I mean, I tried to book a plane ticket for myself and my daughter last night and it was $500 more than it was a week ago, you know.

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And I was kicking myself for not booking the flight a week ago.

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A bit too late now.

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But anyway, so, so you've got that from a company's perspective, all their input costs are becoming more expensive, right?

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Shipping those goods as well. But from a consumer perspective, not only is fuel more expensive, food is more expensive as well, right?

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Because fertiliser goes into making food and that those costs have to be passed down the line.

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But other things are more expensive. So just as a really good example in the Philippines, anecdotally, we've heard of at least, you know, some families where they can't afford to send their kids to school because the buses have stopped, you know, plying the roads and sending kids to school because fuel is too expensive.

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So now you're seeing children's education being affected as well.

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So it's really, really very tangible effects on on people around the region.

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And it's also people who are either poor or lower middle classes that are feeling the effects the most.

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And that's, I think is one of the biggest tragedies of this entire episode, not just what's happening in the Middle East, but that the flow on effects are happening to the most vulnerable outside of the Middle East as well. Let me jump in real quick.

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So in Thailand, we're predominantly Buddhist and when it comes to, one might think that this oil crisis affects the living people.

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Is that it actually also affects the dead as well.

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So in Thailand, when the people pass away, we cremate.

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And toward the beginning, especially in the first week, the government released a policy that you cannot put a gallon to fill in the oil.

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So their original thought was it's to prevent people from hoarding the oil, but it's actually made it panic.

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And when it comes to temple, when they have to cremate the body, they need to put the oils in the gallon and they cannot. Towards the first few weeks, they just can't get the oils.

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And we're talking about the temple, have to post online and have to come out and say they cannot cremate the bodies because they don't have oil.

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And also a lot of people, especially as you mentioned, that a lot of fragile peoples or vulnerable peoples who like lower income, when they pass away, they will have like organisations or volunteer trying to get their body.

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Normally they will use a car, but since the oil is so hard to find, so they instead adapt, they use the motorbike with the sidecar and they put the casket and the body inside that because that takes less fuel and less oil.

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So it's actually not only affected the living people, but also the dead as well.

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And Maura, this oil shock, panic, comes at a time when South East Asian economies, they were hit quite severely by all these back and forth about where the US tariffs are going to be.

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And the governments have been quite struggling in terms of making sure that the ordinary people aren't affected.

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You touched on some of the things that they could maybe do in the future to prepare better for it. But you know, what's the thinking now?

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What can they, what else can they do? Do you think?

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Well, if you thought 2026 was going to be a calmer year compared to 2025, and you're a policymaker in South East Asia, you're definitely wrong, right?

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I mean the world has changed a lot in the last, you know, 13 months, 14 months or so.

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But if you're a policymaker now, you're not just worried about the external environment in terms of trade and global trade and open markets, but you're now worried internally about the impacts of things happening elsewhere in the world.

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And that's the oil price shock that we're seeing. Aas as well, I should mention, right. LNG gas, you know, a lot of...

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20% of the world's supply of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

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But the majority of that comes to Asia.

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So Asia is particularly affected in a way that European leaders and US leaders may not be fully aware of.

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And it's no surprise that we've seen, you know, the Japanese prime minister traveling to the United States, of course.

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And you've also got the head of the International Energy Agency travelling around this region as well, talking to leaders in this region and also saying things like, hey, the world, we need to cooperate and work together because this is a severe economic crisis.

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While Asia is feeling it, the rest of the world will feel it pretty soon.

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I guess you know, this conflict happened rather unexpectedly to many of the region's leaders. Say in the future, something similar were to happen, what are the governments in Thailand, Vietnam and the rest of South East Asia?

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What could they do to be better prepared?

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So the government in Vietnam is doing some short term and long term solutions.

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So in the long term, the key challenge is reducing vulnerability to oil price shock by expanding refining capacity.

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Also, Vietnam wants to boost domestic output and they plan to expand on exploration activities, including offering some incentive to some international oil companies to invest on offshore fields.

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So those details have not been disclosed, but that is the good signal.

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Yeah. And I would say just in summary.

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Number one, diversify. So any policymaker in South East Asia is going to be saying we need to diversify our sources of energy.

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And that includes both countries that we import oil from, but also types of energy.

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Moving into renewables as well. Number two, stockpiling.

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I think the lesson here is they're going to start thinking about how can we stockpile a little bit longer to give ourselves better, a better cushion, so to speak, to withstand these sort of price shocks that they hope will be going away?

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You know, in the near future. And I think the third thing, and this might be a bit more short term, though, as opposed to long term, is what can we do to cushion the impact on our people, on our population that we can also afford.

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And that's the other thing to kind of throw into the mix as well what governments can afford in the region.

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So I think if you look at it that way, then you might see that the picture of Asia in the future will look a bit different than it looks currently in terms of where it gets its energy from.

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Yeah, it's been it's been a very challenging year for those South East Asian leaders having to deal with tariffs to this very surprised oil shock.

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Thank you so much for sharing your insights.

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Panisa, Thuong, and Maura. Thanks for having me.

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Thank you. Thanks for having me.

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See you next time.

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You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service with me, Mariko in Singapore.

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If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode or any other story from the region, please leave us a comment below.

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You can also get in touch with us on email at [email protected] and click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode.

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See you next time.

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