쉐도잉 연습: How To Destroy An Economy - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기

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This is the tallest building in Africa.
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This is the tallest building in Africa.
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It's located here in Egypt's new capital.
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And what these two things have in common is that they're both empty and expensive.
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Here's the Thaya Misra Bridge.
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It's the widest bridge in the world for the sole reason they wanted to hold the Guinness World Record.
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And these investments, among many others you're about to see, were all made to save the Egyptian economy.
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But they did the opposite.
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They were the catalyst for what happened in March 2024 when Egypt did four things no country ever does voluntarily.
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It devalued its currency by 38%, it raised interest rates by 600 basis points,
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it signed a new deal with the International Monetary Fund worth 8 billion dollars,
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a fund that exists only to help countries manage a financial crisis.
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And lastly, Egypt sold this huge chunk of its Mediterranean coastline to the United Arab Emirates for 35 billion dollars.
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This is the story of Egypt's decade-long collapse.
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A collapse that started in July 2013 when a general named Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took power in a military coup.
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Initially, things were looking good for Sisi.
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The Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait sent 23 billion dollars in aid over the next 18 months.
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But then he started investing it in completely insane projects.
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In March 2015, Sissi announced he was building a brand new capital city,
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right here, 45 kilometers out in the open desert, starting from literal sand.
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This new capital was going to be built in just 5 years and cost 45 billion dollars.
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And in 2024, the estimate for just phase 1 alone climbed to 58 billion dollars.
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What has been built though is the East Nile Monorail Line, a 53km long driverless line connecting the new capital to eastern Cairo.
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The prioritization here is what's so baffling.
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Greater Cairo has 22 million people.
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Those people are mostly concentrated in the old city in Giza, in Shubra, in working class neighborhoods east and south.
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To actually connect these people, to make Cairo more efficient,
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a 2019 plan identified Metro Line 4 as the single highest impact transit investment Egypt could make.
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It would serve 1.5 million passengers a day in the densest, poorest, most transit-starved parts of the city.
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But Line 4 is still under construction.
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Full completion is years away.
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Meanwhile, the East Nile Monorail Line, which runs to a practically empty city, opened just a month ago.
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It's fair to say they've He's privatized the wrong infrastructure projects.
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And honestly, that's not even the worst economic decision Sisi has made.
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He's made many others that are much worse and I will show them all, don't worry.
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But there is one that is particularly important because it was a double-edged sword.
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See, Sisi took Egypt in a military coup, we know this, but that had a price.
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So he handed over the entire economy to the military.
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This is why all the mega projects in the Sisi era
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were built by the Egyptian military through the Armed Forces Engineering Authority.
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The new capital for example is 51% owned by the military.
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The bridges were military built, even the pasta you buy at the supermarket in Cairo is increasingly likely military made.
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The Egyptian military runs an economic empire so opaque that nobody actually knows how big it is.
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Sisi is of course claiming it's negligible at around 1.5 to 2% of GDP.
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Independent researchers however put the real number somewhere above 40%.
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The brands the military runs range from bottled water to gas stations to cement
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and they now even hold exclusive rights to tender for Egypt's wheat imports.
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But things start to get really shady when you dig into the anti-competitive practices these companies are allowed to partake in.
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It turns out these companies don't even pay taxes, customs or value-added tax.
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They use conscript labor, which in other words just means they force civilians to perform work for them for free.
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They receive contracts without competition and they're audited only by other military officers.
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What this creates is an environment that's extremely hostile and unfair for outside companies operating in Egypt.
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When the military opened two new cement plants in 2018, cement giants decided to leave the country because it was simply impossible to compete.
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Look, the problem with these foreign companies leaving is that they bring in hard currency, Either as initial investment to build a factory for example,
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or as ongoing revenue from foreign customers who pay in dollars or euros.
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Those dollars get converted into Egyptian pounds to pay local wages, rent and suppliers.
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And the Egyptian central bank keeps those dollars.
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That's how the country builds foreign reserves without having to borrow them.
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For a country whose entire economic crisis is fundamentally a dollar shortage, this is catastrophic.
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It's why the Egyptian pound has collapsed four times in a decade.
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There simply aren't enough dollars coming in, and every departing company makes it worse.
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This was one of the catalysts that led to Egypt borrowing money like it wasn't going to be here tomorrow.
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Egypt's external debt in 2013 when Sisi took power was around $43 billion.
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By the end of 2023, just 10 years later, it was $168 billion.
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It almost quadrupled in a decade.
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Borrowing this kind of money is supposed to be because you're investing in things that will pay it back.
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Ports, factories, exports, etc. Egypt, as we know, didn't do any of that.
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And today, interest payments alone are eating between 75 and over 90 percent of its total government revenue.
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Egypt is now the IMF's second largest borrower on earth.
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All of this meant the Egyptian pound was always going to lose significant value
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because when no one has confidence in a country anymore the currency reflects that.
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But Egypt obviously did not want that.
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So the central bank defended the currency at a rate that was completely fake.
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They were saying officially that one dollar was worth 30 pounds and 85 cents.
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But you couldn't actually buy dollars at that price.
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The banks didn't have them.
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So black market emerged.
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By early 2024, the black market rate had hit 70 pounds to the dollar, more than double the official rate.
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Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF managing director, said publicly that Egypt was burning through reserves defending their pound.
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Her metaphor was that it was like putting water in a bucket that has holes, which is a perfect analogy.
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The actual effect on the ordinary Egyptians was catastrophic.
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We have to realize Egypt imports most of what it consumes.
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Wheat, fuel, medicine, machinery.
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And when your currency loses 80% of its value, all of those things cost five times more than what they used to.
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And Sisi's response to this complete disaster was one of the
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most memorable lines any head of state has given in recent memory.
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In May 2022, he said Egyptians should be willing, if necessary, to eat leaves from trees for the sake of the nation's progress.
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That's absolutely crazy.
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But all of these things I've just listed are Egypt's own making.
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They could have all been avoided.
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The sad thing for the Egyptians though is that these poor decisions were amplified by outside factors they couldn't control.
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See, tourism collapsed from 13 billion dollars to 4 billion dollars due to a certain virus we've all heard about.
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine also hit Egypt specifically hard, because Egypt is the largest wheat importer on earth and 82% of its wheat came from Russia and Ukraine.
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And then on October 7th, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel.
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Israel invaded Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen started firing missiles at every ship going through the Red Sea.
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Within weeks, more than 2,000 vessels had stopped using the Suez Canal
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and were sailing all the way around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
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This was a huge problem for Egypt because they owned the only way to get through here, the Suez Canal.
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Before all of this happened in 2023, the Suez Canal generated 10 billion dollars in revenue.
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In 2024, it was just 4 billion dollars, a 61% collapse in just a year.
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The canal is a geographical monopoly that basically prints money for Egypt, because the alternative is sailing that extra 6,500 kilometers around Africa.
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So Egypt's revenue got caught in half by a civil war in Yemen that they didn't even have any influence over.
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Considering all of this, credit default swaps were pricing Egypt as the second most likely country on earth to default by February 2024.
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The only country considered more likely to go under was Ukraine, which was actively being invaded.
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Egypt was weeks away from default.
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But the world couldn't let Egypt collapse.
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Because here's the thing, 108 million people live here.
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When not affected by war, the Suez Canal handles 12% of global trade, and Egypt's Mediterranean coast, if it collapsed,
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would launch millions of migrants directly at Europe.
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Egypt is in the most cynical possible sense too big to fail.
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Not because it's powerful, but because it's dangerous.
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So the bailout came together.
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And the lead donor might not have been on anyone's bingo card, as it was the UAE.
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But that's because their donation wasn't really a donation after all.
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It was more a really bad real estate deal, at least for Egypt.
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See, Egypt would give the UAE development rights over 170 square kilometers of prime Mediterranean coastline.
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In exchange, 24 billion in new cash and 11 billion of existing deposits converted into investments,
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making it the largest foreign direct investment in Egypt's history.
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The moment the deal closed, dollars came rushing back into Egypt and then on March 6th everything else happened at once.
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The pound was floated, rates went up 600 basis points, the IMF deal expanded to 8 billion, the World Bank threw in 6 billion,
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the EU came in with 7.4 billion euros and 200 million of that was specifically, explicitly earmarked for migration management.
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Europe was basically paying Egypt to stop boats from coming.
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Egypt is just too geopolitically load-bearing to be allowed to fail in the way Lebanon or Sri Lanka did.
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So what's more likely than collapse is what I'd call a permanent slow bleed.
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Think of it this way, every structural problem that caused the 2024 crisis is still there.
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Debt service is still eating 75-90% of government revenue, the military still runs 40% of the economy, the bank of projects still don't generate returns,
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the population is still growing by 1.5 million people a year, the new capital is still empty, the private sector is still being crowded out, none of that got fixed in 2024,
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it just got funded for another few years, which means the next shock, whatever it is, lands on the same fragile structure and there will be another shock.

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이번 수업에서는 이집트 경제의 붕괴에 관한 내용을 다루며, 경제 용어와 관련된 어휘를 연습합니다. IELTS 스피킹에 필요한 배경지식을 쌓고, 다양한 경제적 개념을 영어로 말하는 연습을 통해 영어 회화 연습에 도움을 줄 것입니다. 특히, shadowspeak 기법을 활용하여 복잡한 내용을 효과적으로 반복하면서 발음과 억양을 개선해 보세요.

주요 어휘 및 구문

  • 경제 위기 (economic crisis)
  • 통화 평가절하 (currency devaluation)
  • 군사 쿠데타 (military coup)
  • 인프라 프로젝트 (infrastructure project)
  • 상대적 독점 (anti-competitive practices)
  • 품질 검사 (audited)
  • 국제통화기금 (International Monetary Fund)
  • 소득세 면제 (tax exemptions)

연습 팁

이 비디오의 속도는 다소 빠르기 때문에 shadow speech 기법을 사용할 때 주의가 필요합니다. 처음에는 느리게 재생하여 발음과 억양을 확인한 후, 점차적으로 속도를 증가시켜 보세요. 자신의 목소리를 녹음하여 원본과 비교해보는 것도 좋은 방법입니다. 다양한 발음과 강조 패턴을 익힘으로써 shadow speak에 익숙해질 수 있습니다. 또한, 각 어휘를 작은 문장으로 만들어 보면서 실생활에서 활용할 수 있는 기회를 만들어보세요. 이렇게 지속적으로 연습하게 되면, IELTS 스피킹 시험에서도 더 자신감 있게 대답할 수 있습니다.

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쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.

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