쉐도잉 연습: Our central banks are in crisis—here’s why it matters | Birgit Niessner | TEDxLinz - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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Reviewer Gopaljean Reviewer
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I will start my TEDx talk with a hand back.
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I've just brought it home from a wonderful vacation in Colombia.
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Can you hear them starting to whisper?
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They are a little bit nervous now because I promised them a profound economics talk.
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But here I stand with my hand back.
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Can you actually see what it's made of?
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It's made of money.
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It's beautiful, but it hides a tragedy.
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In Colombia, we have roughly 3 million Venezuelan refugees,
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and one of them is selling things made out of money to tourists.
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You can see his vendor stand here with origami made out of money.
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This is probably the best use you can still make of a currency
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which suffered from hyperinflation because its central bank is under political control.
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In Germany, they also experienced hyperinflation.
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This inflation stress is witness of times when money lost its value,
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savings were wiped out, markets stopped functioning.
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And this episode of hyperinflation gave rise to political extremism,
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because people lost faith in the system.
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Now, Germany 1923 and Venezuela 2026 are not as far away as you might think.
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We live in a society where we risk losing sight of one of our major pillars of stability,
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which are central banks.
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I spot a dangerous knowledge gap on how central banks function,
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as you can currently see in Washington.
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When I was working as chief economist of the Austrian Central Bank,
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I often had the impression that people don't understand how this institution fights inflation and how we can help in this fight.
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This pillar of stability works the better,
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the more you care about it.
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But let's start with the basics.
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Central banks issue money.
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The global community of central banks has the mandate to preserve price stability.
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Across many countries, there is common ground that central banks must be independent.
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When they are free from political pressure,
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they can conduct monetary policy in a professional and non-partisan way.
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This leads to low inflation,
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and low inflation helps households and businesses alike.
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At the latest inflation shock after the pandemic,
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central banks used all their ammunition to fight inflation.
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In Austria, this fight is not yet over,
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but speaking for the Euro area,
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we are back to the inflation target of 2%.
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Okay, I still think that this community of central banks is often taken for granted or overlooked.
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What do you know about the central bank in your country?
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Central banks are at risk if people don't have the interest and the knowledge to fully appreciate its importance.
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They are also at risk if they are subject to political meddling.
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Let me provide an example from Latin America.
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Let's look to Mexico.
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There they had the so-called tequila crisis.
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Nothing nice like the name may suggest.
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It was a severe currency devaluation mismanaged by a politicized central bank.
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The peso lost half of its value against the US dollar.
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This made imports very expensive,
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inflation shot up and people struggled to cover their basic expenses.
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Widespread unemployment and an increase in poverty followed.
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This major crisis became the catalyst for granting the Mexican Central Bank full legal independence in 1994,
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and this is what it did to the inflation rate in Mexico.
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Very high rates before 1994,
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very low and stable rates after 1994.
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When evidence on this link between independence of the central bank and low inflation was becoming clear,
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more and more countries joined the club of independent central banks.
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Here you can see the darker the country is,
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the more independent the central bank is.
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Roughly two-thirds of countries all over the world have a statute granting its central bank independence,
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which means autonomy in setting the monetary policy,
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restrictions on lending to government,
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and protection of governor tenure.
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In Europe, we have the European Central Bank.
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This is me inside the premises.
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And I would say it really conducts monetary policy to the benefit of the citizens
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and in addition it creates European identity because the euro is the currency of currently 21 countries.
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Okay, so until now, I have stated,
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I have tried to argue Central banks are super important state institutions.
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But why do they matter for your life?
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Let's move this a little bit closer to your personal finances and look at the Fed,
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the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States,
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the most important central bank globally, a very prestigious institution.
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You may have heard that Mr. Trump is pushing for the current chairman,
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Mr. Powell, to resign.
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What looks like a power struggle far away actually constitutes one of our major financial risks in 2026.
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Let me walk you through this risk.
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If the independence of the Fed is dismantled,
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inflation may shoot up in the United States and the dollar will weaken.
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Everybody who is invested in U.S assets will feel this.
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Now you may say this is still far away from my personal finances,
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but let me remind you of the great financial crisis in 2008.
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Exports from Europe go massively to the United States and capital flows are closely intertwined.
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Thus, I can assure you,
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if there is uncertainty around the value of the dollar,
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which is until now the safe haven of the global financial system,
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we will definitely see global spillovers.
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At the latest attack against Mr Powell,
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the global community of central banks gave a strong sign of solidarity.
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They are alert because we really don't know what happens
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if the dollar will become as as volatile as a currency of an emerging market such as Turkey.
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Now, there is another link between you,
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me, the ordinary citizens and the central banks,
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and that's expectations on inflation.
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As I have said before,
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central banks preserve price stability.
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Sounds technical, but it simply means when you plan your groceries,
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you plan your rent, you plan your holiday,
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prices don't suddenly run away from you.
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And they preserve this price stability with a toolbox of monetary policy instrument.
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Now, this toolbox is difficult to understand if you're not an economist.
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Thus, we rather rely on the track record of a central bank,
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or we listen to its communication.
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And based on this, we form a view on the credibility of the institution.
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And this is key in the actual fight against inflation.
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If you trust your central bank and prices start rising,
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you will tend to see this as a short-lived episode.
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You won't easily push for higher wages.
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If you run a business,
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you're less likely to raise prices.
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Thus higher wages don't push prices and inflation is kept at bay.
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This is the key mechanism and it works in four steps.
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The trust in the central bank leads to stable expectations,
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this leads to restraint in wages and prices,
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and again to low inflation.
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Now think of what happens if you have lost trust in a person.
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You will hesitate to believe this person ever again.
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This is exactly what could happen with a politicized Fed.
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Once credibility is lost, it is extraordinarily hard to regain trust.
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And the US should know about it,
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because the Fed lost control of inflation in the 1970s,
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when the then-chairman was under political pressure from President Nixon.
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Only when the new chairman,
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Mr. Volcker, came in, and I must say,
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after a really severe cost-of-living crisis which reshaped economic chances of the population,
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then Mr. Volker came in with his giant interest rate hammer,
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and only then the Fed realized that printing money like confetti isn't the best idea.
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And up to now I have tried to say it analytically,
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but I must be honest with you.
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It really makes me furious when politicians start dismantling the independence of central banks and interfere in monetary policy.
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They just don't grasp the consequences.
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They don't see the importance of the independence of central banks.
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And this is super ironic,
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because all these politicians want to be re-elected and not be punished for high inflation rates.
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Now let's go to the future of money.
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Until now, I have asked you to trust central banks to respect monetary policy.
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Thank you for this trust.
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As a sign of appreciation,
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I will now offer you a new perspective on money.
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I will try to show you how central banks keep up with the times.
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You've come to Linz.
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How will you cover your expenses here?
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Please raise your hand.
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Who will pay with cash?
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Who will use his or her debit or credit card to cover expenses?
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Okay, and who pays via mobile phone?
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Okay.
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I'm not going to ask now for the people with gold bars and bitcoins,
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but I will make one point.
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There is one big difference between cash and all other forms of payment.
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Cash is your only direct link to the central bank.
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The euro is issued by the European Central Bank and directly put into the hands of citizens.
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With all other forms of payment,
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you have an intermediary between you and the central bank.
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Now, from our little survey,
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we have seen that more and more people prefer to pay in a digital way.
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This is why the European Central Bank is preparing a digital euro.
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It's money, it's cash in the digital form.
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In 2029, it could be possible that you have the digital euro in your wallet.
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And then it is your choice whether to pay
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via mostly American intermediaries such as Visa or MasterCard or whether you will opt for a European digital solution.
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And that brings me to the broader future of money.
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We still live in a world where we are surrounded by mostly public forms of payment,
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public forms of money, I want to say.
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but they're in competition with more and more private forms of money.
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The euro is public money.
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The dollar is public money.
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Stablecoins, which are now hyped in the US,
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are a form of private money.
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They're backed by US Treasury bills,
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but they're issued by a private company.
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Cryptoassets, which by the way don't really store value,
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are also a form of private money.
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My aim here is not to persuade you that public money is better than private money,
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but I want you to take a conscious choice.
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Private money can work if it is well regulated.
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However, I do miss a discourse on the risks and advantages of either form of money.
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And you can see here,
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you have a lot of choice.
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Everybody knows the ECB, but do you know TESA Holdings Limited?
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It's the company issuing the most widely spread stable coin,
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moving around $140 billion daily, which is more than the GDP of many countries.
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TESA Holdings Limited is registered in the British Virgin Islands.
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For an informed decision, you will have to dig deep into the governance and into the solvency of this company,
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and only then you can decide whether you will trust your stable coin.
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And that brings me to my last question for today.
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I know that you know who is your head of government,
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but do you know who is the governor of your central bank?
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Do you know who is the president of the European Central Bank?
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Here she is, Madame Lagarde,
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when she visited us at the Austrian Central Bank.
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I know that many people don't know.
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They don't see the Central Bank.
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I think it's a very dangerous knowledge gap.
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Politicians have a lot of influence on our lives,
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but the power of Central Bank directly reaches into your pocket or maybe in the future into your wallet.
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If central banks fail, the consequences for society are dramatic.
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Here it's a quote from one of the best economists we ever had,
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what happens if a society loses the value of its currency?
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So I hope that after this talk you will see your central bank.
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And let me move one step further.
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Let's look at a world transformed,
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a world where knowledge is not hidden in textbooks or in ivory towers.
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Go out and tell your friends what you've heard on money and inflation today.
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Subscribe to the social media channels of your central bank.
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Check out their podcasts.
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Get informed.
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And in this world, the fight against inflation is not a lonely battle of economists behind closed doors.
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It's a collective mission because you understand where the inflation rate stands in relation to the target of your central bank.
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Picture a society where politicians no longer meddle recklessly with central banks by putting their political appointees in this institution.
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and you respect your governor,
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you know his or her name,
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not because of scandal, but because he or she is a trusted guardian of stability.
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Let's close this knowledge gap together.
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If you turn into an informed listener of your central bank,
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this will not avoid the next inflation surge,
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but it will make the fight against it easier.
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My call for action is simple.
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Learn who guards your money.
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Trust in central banks is nothing abstract.
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It's something we build together or lose together.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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- 물가 안정 (Price Stability)
- 인플레이션 (Inflation)
- 통화 정책 (Monetary Policy)
- 정치적 압력 (Political Pressure)
- 초과 인플레이션 (Hyperinflation)
- 시민과 기업 (Households and Businesses)
- 정치적 극단주의 (Political Extremism)
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