쉐도잉 연습: SpaceX: The IPO where the math doesn't matter | About That - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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SpaceX is blasting off on the stock market in a way that no company in human history has ever done.
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SpaceX is blasting off on the stock market in a way that no company in human history has ever done.
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Musk addresses the troops.
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Let's get the opening down.
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It's SpaceX celebrating its record-breaking IPO.
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Almost a $1.8 trillion valuation.
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But what's funny about this story is how, despite it being intrinsically about numbers, share price, company valuations, revenue forecasts,
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for most people who are pulling the trigger and buying SpaceX stock for the first time,
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I don't think the numbers matter very much because you can't arrange them in any way that makes sense.
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If you tried to build a model, I don't know what you'd put in that model.
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Well, this isn't a traditional company in any sense of the word.
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I can't for the life of me understand how anyone is making the math work, which tells me maybe they just aren't.
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I will not try to speculate on the real value of SpaceX.
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But I think I can show you what is so speculative about buying into it.
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And that's what SpaceX is all about.
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It's to take the fiction out of science fiction.
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So this IPO, the first thing that might be your, hey, I didn't know that, is that SpaceX is short for Space Exploration Technologies Corporation,
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which in hindsight would have made space, etc. a funnier name.
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But let's just call that a missed opportunity.
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The opportunity the investing world has grabbed onto,
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though, is 555,555555 shares of the company's stock,
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all going on sale for $135 per share.
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That's the IPO, a private company going public.
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Multiply those numbers out.
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This raises $75 billion US for SpaceX.
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Which sounds like a lot.
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But two important things to note here.
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555 million shares isn't that much.
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It's less than 5% of the company's total stock.
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But at the IPO price of $135 a share, multiplied across all of the company's 12 or 13 billion shares, that is very much.
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And before open trading on the NASDAQ even began today, it gave SpaceX a mind-bending market cap,
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like a total stock value of nearly $1.8 trillion.
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For reference, 10 of the most valuable companies on Earth.
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SpaceX, at that value, knocks one of them off the list.
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Beats even Tesla's market cap.
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Which, by this point, should tell you that yes, Elon Musk is now not just a rich man, he's a very rich man.
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Elon Musk just becoming the world's first trillionaire.
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Now, Tesla is very important to this story
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because it gives us our best glimpse into explaining how on
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earth SpaceX is worth to investors somewhere in the ballpark of two trillion dollars.
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Maybe more, maybe less. Who knows?
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That's the fun of it, I guess.
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And I can show you what I mean.
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Tesla Motors is now a publicly traded company.
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When Tesla first went public 16 years ago and started selling shares to the public, let's say you bought one.
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It would have cost you $17.
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Except, fast forward a decade and a half, you don't own just one share anymore.
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Tesla split its stock, meaning they subdivided everyone's shares many times over, 15 times to be exact, across two massive splits.
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Same $17 value just broken into more pieces.
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So the split adjusted price of each share, something like $1.13, each share today is worth,
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last I checked, just under $400.
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So in those terms, you'd have have transformed a $17 2010 investment into almost $6,000 today.
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That's crazy.
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That's like investing on the stock market and getting compounded annual returns of 44% every year for 16 years,
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when we're all told to generally expect an average of like six or eight.
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And if you're really smooth sailing, Tesla is a company that throughout its history had a pretty big rise in valuation.
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So in that sense, Tesla is sort of this unique outlier on the stock market, right?
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A big part of what made Tesla's meteoric ascent so incredible was that when it went public,
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it was losing money worth just a tiny fraction of what it's worth now.
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It's only car for sale, the Roadster.
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But investors saw value because they saw potential.
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They weren't pricing shares based on what the company was pulling in then.
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They were banking on electric vehicles becoming more popular, batteries, charging stations, infrastructure becoming better,
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that maybe one day this company could build a car capable of driving itself.
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And frankly, they were betting that Elon Musk was the man to do it.
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It's a lottery ticket on Elon Musk and his ability to execute and do things that have never been done before.
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It's been a very successful stock for the people who have held on to it.
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Tesla is now the most valuable automaker in the US, with a market cap of about $85 billion.
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Tesla has become the world's most valuable car maker.
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From the point of view of an investor, SpaceX just might follow that same trajectory.
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And today, it has a big advantage over Tesla, in that it doesn't need to prove it's a real business.
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It is already the global leader in its business.
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As day traders woke up this morning, eager to get a piece of SpaceX, SpaceX was launching a Falcon 9 rocket into low Earth orbit.
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This rocket pioneered the concept of reusability.
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It's flown hundreds of missions.
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And its payload this time?
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Dozens of Starlink satellites.
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SpaceX has thousands of them in low Earth orbit.
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More than every other company and government combined.
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This global communications network makes SpaceX billions of dollars every year.
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And these things, the Falcon 9, Starlink, they aren't even the most impressive things about SpaceX.
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The company has high hopes for Starship,
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the company's fully reusable, super heavy lift launch vehicle meant to transport cargo and crew to space,
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the moon, Mars, and beyond.
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SpaceX also pours billions of dollars into XAI, the company's artificial intelligence wing,
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Which means, if you think about Tesla and how its core business all those years ago was just electric cars, SpaceX is aerospace, its communications,
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and its AI, all wrapped up into one.
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That puts it at the forefront of everything.
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So here's where we bring all of that back down to Earth.
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Starting with the valuation.
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The IPO price of $135 a share, putting the company market cap at somewhere around $1.77 trillion,
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that's nowhere near in the same universe as what this company actually pulls in each year in dollars and cents.
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It's essentially all pure long-term money that's being priced.
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And I can show you the math of it, even though I can tell you right now, it's just so far out of whack, I just don't even see how it matters.
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As I mentioned before, I think when most people think of SpaceX, they think of the splashy rocket launches.
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This is a core part of the business.
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Satellite communication, that's providing internet and mobile to millions of us Earthlings.
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That's another part of the business.
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XAI is the third pillar of SpaceX, folded in just earlier this year where it used to be its own standalone company.
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So pretty recent, but pretty important because two of these pillars are losing a ton of money.
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The space division posted a loss last year of $657 million.
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Just in the first three months of this year, it's down another $662 million.
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AI, it's where a lot of money is being spent without a clear way to recoup that money.
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2025, $6 billion loss, another two and a half in just the first quarter of 2026.
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What keeps this hulking machine churning is Starlink.
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Connectivity generated almost $4.5 billion in profit last year and on track to do the same this year based on its Q1 results.
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But overall, SpaceX is spending far more than it makes, posting a nearly $5 billion loss for 2025
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and nearly as much in just the first three months of 2026 when it acquired XAI.
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So that valuation of somewhere in the $2 trillion range, SpaceX's assets don't add up to anywhere near that and neither do its profits.
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To what extent it's speculation or sensible forecasting, that's a matter of judgment.
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But it doesn't represent current profits.
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It's some sort of expectation of what they'll be in about 20 years' time.
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And that's a big guessing game.
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Where will anything be in 20 years' time?
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Well, we can look to SpaceX's SEC filing for some clues, because there is a regulatory obligation for it to acknowledge to
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shareholders what headwind risks are in the company's future starship big promise
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but big peril spacex recognizes a lot hinges on development testing
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and deployment of starship at scale
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if we are unable to achieve sufficient launch cadence reusability
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and capability our ability to execute our growth strategy would be materially and adversely affected.
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Other hurdles?
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Unforeseen technical challenges, supply chain disruptions, manufacturing difficulties, loss or damage to the vehicle or other components,
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regulatory hurdles, or the need for additional design modifications.
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These kinds of disclaimers are not unusual, but in the case of SpaceX, they are foundational to the point of being existential.
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SpaceX makes a point of acknowledging how it will rely on unproven technologies
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or technologies that do not exist or may require significant advancement and such initiatives may not achieve commercial viability.
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Speaking of viability, do you know where a big part of SpaceX's current viability comes from?
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Our services are subject to risks related to supplying services to the US government.
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Let's talk about that.
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Today it's about a man named Elon and he's one of the greatest business leaders and innovators the world has ever produced.
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It's hard to deny that to the Trump administration, Musk is a known and valued quantity.
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Trump owes a great deal to Musk.
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Elon Musk gave around $75 million to his pro-Donald Trump super PAC in the span of three months.
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President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution.
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He must win to preserve democracy in America.
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And I'm not suggesting there's a direct exchange of favors here, but Musk owes a great deal to the Trump administration.
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SpaceX is one of the biggest government contractors in the United States.
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Almost its entire launch revenue outside of Starlink comes from the U.S government.
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And you might argue, rightfully so, SpaceX has a near monopoly on the heavy and manned launch markets, sending cargo and people into space.
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So NASA and the Department of War give it a lot of money.
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But back to the company's future facing risk.
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What if some or all of that were to disappear as quickly as, say, Elon Musk cleaned house with his Department of Government efficiency,
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slashing contracts and even other departments wholesale?
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Not saying it'll happen, just saying it's a risk on social media and AI,
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because key point here, X and the Grok chatbot are part of SpaceX.
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The company's regulatory filings point to increasing legislative and regulatory activity,
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platform moderation, intellectual property, product liability, data privacy, age restrictions, data disclosure,
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cybersecurity, export controls, consumer protection, all of which are not directly within SpaceX's control.
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From time to time, we are involved in litigation, investigations, and other regulatory proceedings which could be costly,
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time-consuming, and divert management attention, materially adversely affecting our business.
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They're saying they could get sued, and they do get sued.
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There are court cases
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and lawsuits having to do with everything from noise at SpaceX's
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data centers to environmental concerns over land swaps to property concerns over damage from rocket testing.
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And just to give you a window into a case dating back to the Biden administration
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and where legal issues can get very political, SpaceX has been sued even for the way it hires its talent.
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Again, lots of companies get sued, but not many get sued like SpaceX gets sued.
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And bottom line, Musk's biggest companies are intertwined, not just in the way that SpaceX suddenly gobbled up XAI earlier this year,
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but also in the way, for example, that Tesla simply owns shares in SpaceX, millions of them.
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And over the years, all of Musk's biggest companies have at various points faced a very similar problem, which SpaceX continues to face today.
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We have a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future.
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Our substantial level of indebtedness could materially adversely affect our financial condition.
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Our massive amounts of negative money are a problem.
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And managing all of these problems, this whole galaxy of risk, it all goes back to one man.
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As a fairly passive investor myself, I can tell you, when I buy shares in a company, I don't really care all that much about telling the company how to do its job,
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even if my shares technically get me votes on important issues.
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But I derive a lot of confidence in knowing
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that the company is accountable to shareholders in a way
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that hopefully forces it to act responsibly and in all of our best interests.
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But even in going public with its IPO, SpaceX works differently.
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What's on sale to the general public today, and all of those half a billion shares that sold as part of the IPO, those are all class A shares.
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One share, one vote, tiny smidge of control over the company.
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But there's another type of share that isn't ever for sale to the general public, and those are class B shares.
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are super shares where one share is worth 10 votes.
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You know who controls almost all of the company's class B shares?
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Even after the IPO and after all the day trading that follows today,
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Elon Musk is figured to retain somewhere around 82% control of the company.
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This makes him unassailable as leader.
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Elon Musk has control over SpaceX in a way that we've never seen any individual hold over a publicly traded company.
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And when your mission statement is as expansive as building, quote, the systems and technologies necessary to make life multi-planetary,
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to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars, maybe you need that kind of authoritarian control.
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It's literally written into the IPO that Musk cannot be removed as head of SpaceX without his own consent.
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If things go wrong, shareholders might want to replace him and they simply won't be able to do that.
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So look, SpaceX could be a defining generational opportunity to own a critical piece of the tech industry.
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Or it could be a tech trap, a trillion-dollar gamble that needs the stars to align just right for it to pay off.
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But one thing's for sure, many investors will not be able to not own a stake in SpaceX.
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It's a bit like a gravity well pulling investment towards it, including even the most passive types of investments that will bundle SpaceX into their portfolios.
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It's just, if you're one of those, don't expect to get rich quick.
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The company has no immediate plans to pay out dividends, and the time has long passed to be an early investor.
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unless you're playing an incredibly long game, not measured in quarters or even calendar years, but rather in decades.
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이번 강의에 대하여
이번 레슨에서는 SpaceX의 IPO에 대한 내용을 통해 영어 발음 및 표현을 연습합니다. 이 강의에서는 주식 시장과 기업 가치에 관한 복잡한 개념을 쉽게 설명하는 데 중점을 두어, 실제 비즈니스 용어를 포함한 영어 표현을 익힐 수 있습니다. SpaceX라는 혁신적인 회사와 엘론 머스크의 이야기를 통해 다양한 어휘를 배우고, 리스닝 및 스피킹 능력을 향상시킬 것입니다. 이 강의를 통해 IELTS 스피킹에 대비하는 데도 큰 도움이 될 것입니다.
주요 어휘 및 구문
- IPO (상장 공모): 주식시장에서 주식을 처음으로 판매하는 과정.
- valuation (기업 가치): 기업의 현재 또는 미래의 가치를 평가하는 것.
- market cap (시가 총액): 회사의 총 주식 가치.
- shares (주식): 회사에 대한 소유권을 나타내는 증서.
- split (주식 분할): 주식을 여러 개로 나누는 것.
- investors (투자자): 기업이나 자산에 돈을 투자하는 사람들.
- valuation (가치 평가): 기업의 경제적 가치를 측정하는 것.
- speculative (투기적): 불확실한 수익을 목표로 하는 투자 방식.
연습 팁
이번 비디오의 속도와 어조에 맞춰 쉐도잉을 연습하세요. 영어 발음 교정을 위해, 각 문장을 반복하면서 어조와 발음을 최대한 비슷하게 따라 해 보세요. 중요한 것은 이해하는 것뿐만 아니라, 발음 또한 중요합니다. 비디오를 처음 볼 때는 전체 내용을 이해하려고 하다가 방해받지 마세요. 한 번 보고 나면, 내용을 이해하는 데 집중하고, 두 번째와 세 번째 시청 때는 shadowing site를 이용해 직접 따라 해 보세요. 필요한 경우, 느린 속도로 진행하는 도구를 사용해도 좋습니다. 이 과정을 통해 여러분은 영어 쉐도잉 스킬을 획기적으로 향상시킬 수 있습니다. 연습 후에는 자신의 발음을 녹음하고 들어보면서 수정해 나가세요. 이는 IELTS 스피킹 능력을 키우는 데도 큰 도움이 될 것입니다.
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.
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