쉐도잉 연습: The Black Swan Theory - The Random Moments That Change Everything - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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There are no real black swans,
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only white ones, aside from the soft grays and youth.
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We have never seen a blue,
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green, or rainbow-colored swan, and we have never seen a black one,
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because they don't exist.
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That is why, when we say something is a black swan,
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we mean to say it is not real.
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It is impossible.
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This was the belief held across all of Europe prior to the 18th century,
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just a little over 300 years ago.
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Originating from the words of the second-century Roman poet Juvenal,
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the phrase black swan was used exclusively to refer to something impossible,
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similar to the idiom when pigs fly.
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The reason for this was simple.
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No one in Europe had ever seen anything other than a white swan.
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All observations in historical records reported a consistent, clear reality.
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white swans existed.
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The problem, of course, is that black swans do very much exist.
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They're not even rare in their native habitat.
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They've existed abundantly for a very long time.
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They were just unknown.
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Only after the year 1697,
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when Dutch explorers found black swans all over Australia,
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did this reality, or rather the comprehension of reality, change.
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Centuries' worth of consistent observations and subsequent expectations in phraseology revealed to be insufficient and false.
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As if a pig suddenly flew,
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what had previously been a symbol of impossibility suddenly became a symbol of humanity's inability to ever know what is
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and isn't possible.
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Black swans became a metaphor for unexpected events that undermine entire assumptions about truth.
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More recently, the term black swan or black swan event has been popularized by the author,
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statistician, and former options trader, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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Across several of his books,
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including Antifragile, Fooled by Randomness,
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and The Black Swan, Taleb often explores the nature,
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impact, and pervasiveness of unforeseen,
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unpredictable, and history-altering events, many of which he refers to as black swans.
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Taleb defines a black swan event as comprising the following three essential qualities.
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1. The event comes as a surprise.
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All prevailing models of understanding and prediction struggle to foresee or,
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in some cases, even imagine it.
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2. The event has immense impact,
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reshaping major aspects of the world or how we see it. And 3.
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The event appears completely explainable after the fact.
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Contorted by retrospective rationalization, narratives are formed around the event that make seem clear or normal in hindsight.
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Crucially, Taleb believes that most important historical events are black swans.
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Scientific discoveries, artistic achievements, technological breakthroughs,
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wars, global disasters, and major shifts in markets and ideologies are often black swans, according to Taleb.
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He writes, History and societies do not crawl.
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They make jumps.
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They go from fracture to fracture with a few vibrations in between.
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Yet we like to believe in the predictable, small incremental progression.
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For Taleb, black swans reside on every landmass of society,
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swim in every stream of consciousness,
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and wade in every marsh of reality.
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We see their presence in recent history in notable moments like the rise of the internet,
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the 2008 financial crisis, the September 11th attacks,
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the fall of the Soviet Union,
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the formation of Einstein's theory of relativity,
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and the discovery of penicillin.
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Perhaps more unsettling than how immense the consequences of singular events
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can be is what these black swans reveal about our comprehension of reality,
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our expectations of the future,
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and the limits of our ability to ever truly grasp either.
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These outlier events can completely undo entire systems of logic,
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knowledge, prediction, expectation, and operation.
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They can uproot what we believed for centuries to be obvious,
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break down what were once considered natural laws of the universe,
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overhaul previously robust institutions, and generate,
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seemingly out of nothing, entirely new realms of being.
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And yet, prior to these world-changing moments,
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even when they're just one step in front of us,
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we never quite see them coming,
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or at least we never act as though we do.
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As a species, we struggle greatly with comprehending probability, odds, risk, and uncertainty.
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As the historian and writer Yuval Noah Harari points out,
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our ancestors were never obliged to handle large amounts of mathematical data.
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No forager needed to remember,
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say, the number of fruit on each tree in the forest,
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so human Human brains did not adapt to storing and processing numbers.
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Consequently, we are left, still today,
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struggling to make sense of things at large scales.
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Across long time horizons, large numbers or both,
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order begins to blur into the appearance of randomness and chaos.
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To sustain function, the human mind seems to bend around the variability,
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uncertainty and chaos of the world,
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filling in the gaps and solidifying itself like wet concrete,
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turning otherwise unstable space into something solid and walkable.
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we are left with is the illusion of stable ground and a reality that is set to break with a single step.
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Perhaps our greatest offense in the realm of faulty intuition is that we tend to expect linear progressions.
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In other words, we tend to believe that what has happened will continue to happen and in the same relative manner,
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and that what has never happened will never happen.
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This is the result of biases like the narrative fallacy and the availability heuristic,
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where we tend to significantly simplify the recent past,
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and then extrapolate this simplified version into the future.
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Of course, when these biases are addressed explicitly,
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we know it isn't the case that things always remain consistent or progress linearly.
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On some level, we know that history is full of things that had never happened,
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until they did, and we know that things once considered permanent have since ceased entirely.
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But therein lies the rub.
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Despite the apparent regularity of novel disruptions and turning points,
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and despite our general awareness of them,
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we still seem incapable of properly expecting or preparing for them,
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whether it's on an individual or societal level,
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whether it's mentally or systematically.
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Although they do sound ominous and tend to relate to negative consequences,
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of course, not all black swans are bad.
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Just as often as they bring disruption or destruction,
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they bring creation, advancement, and revelation.
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The cosmos, the stars, earth,
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life, these are all black swan events.
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And of course, we ourselves are a black swan event.
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An unlikely, unprecedented, self-aware, symbolic,
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tool-making, existence-questioning species that nothing could have ever predicted before us,
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that changed everything, and whose existence is now completely normal and obvious.
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Only because of the apparent chaos and randomness of the cosmos do we exist.
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And as beings forged by the very fire of chaos,
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we can also learn to better handle and withstand the flames.
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Another concept spearheaded by Taleb is known as antifragility.
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This idea refers to things and systems that benefit and grow stronger through exposure to disorder and randomness.
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This includes things like evolution,
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the immune system, decentralized free markets,
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airlines, the internet, and knowledge itself.
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As these things are exposed to stressors or errors,
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they adapt and strengthen, growing more capable of thriving under uncertainty in the future.
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And of course, this also includes us.
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If we are willing to take and face risks,
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undergo potential harm, and move forward through an uncertain existence with mental fortitude and resilience,
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doing our best to prepare for what we think will occur while accepting the events that actually do,
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growing from them as they shape the course of history with and through us,
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then we too can be antifragile.
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Ultimately, we don't know what black swans might be lurking around us right now,
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grazing in the shadows of unknowability,
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floating in the mires of uncertainty.
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We are always at the edge,
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where light meets shadow, where stable land meets boggy ground,
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projecting out in all directions our comfortable narratives of linearity and predictability.
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But from the surface of our expectations all the way down into our most core beliefs,
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so much of what we expect and hold to be true could reveal at any point,
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suddenly and all all at once,
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to be deeply flawed, incomplete, or flat out wrong.
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The laws of nature, our position in the cosmos,
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the very condition of the cosmos itself,
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the realities of consciousness and selfhood,
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our idea of what's right and wrong,
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what's important and what our purpose is,
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our expectations of the future.
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We don't know what is true,
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and we don't know what will happen.
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But we don't need to.
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At bottom, we don't even want to.
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The apparent randomness and unpredictability,
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as much as our minds work to smooth it over and fill in the cracks,
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provide the slants, slopes, and gaps that thrill us, that build us.
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If we wish to improve our experience in a chaotic universe,
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perhaps instead of always trying to predict or control events,
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worrying about what might happen or has happened,
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we should learn to enjoy the birdwatching from the rollercoaster ride that is existence.
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Something that very few people could have predicted just a couple decades ago is the economy built on personal information.
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Who you are, what you like,
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where you live, and so on,
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are now all sought, packaged, and sold online.
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What used to be the norm,
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general privacy, has been upended.
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A black swan made of data.
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They then sell the information to businesses,
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And of course, as always,
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thank you so much for watching in general,
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and see you next video.
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이번 수업에서는 "블랙 스완 이론"을 통해 영어 듣기 및 발음을 연습할 것입니다. 이 영상을 통해 예기치 못한 사건들이 우리에게 미치는 영향을 배우고, 이를 통해 중요한 어휘와 표현을 익힐 것입니다. 또한, 블랙 스완 사건의 뜻과 그 특징을 이해함으로써 복잡한 내용을 영어로 표현하는 데 도움을 줄 것입니다. 유튜브 영어 공부를 통해 실질적인 발음 교정과 구문 이해를 향상시켜 보세요.
핵심 어휘 및 구문
- Black Swan (블랙 스완): 불가능하다고 믿었던 것을 상징하는 표현
- unexpected events (예기치 못한 사건들): 예측할 수 없는 사건들
- impact (영향): 사건이 세상에 미치는 큰 효과
- retrospective rationalization (소급적 합리화): 사건 이후에 사건을 설명하기 위해 그럴듯한 이야기를 만드는 것
- surprise (놀라움): 예기치 않게 발생하는 사건의 성격
- explainable (설명할 수 있는): 사건이 발생한 후에 이해하거나 설명할 수 있는 상태
- historical events (역사적 사건): 중요한 역사적 변화를 가져온 사건들
- unforeseen (예상치 못한): 미리 예상하지 못했던 사건
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