쉐도잉 연습: Why technical 'analysis' is garbage (explained by a quant developer) - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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What's up guys, it's CodingJesus and in today's video I want to talk about why I know, not I think, not I believe, why I know that technical analysis is a load of garbage.
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What's up guys, it's CodingJesus and in today's video I want to talk about why I know, not I think, not I believe, why I know that technical analysis is a load of garbage.
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For those of you that are new to this channel, I am a high-frequency trading software engineer.
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I write algorithms to trade automatically or algorithmically rather with the exchange and I also write trading applications to allow traders to submit custom strategies,
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to view their risk, to trade manually with the exchange, and that also involves creating charting software.
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So I am by no means new to charts.
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Okay guys, what is technical analysis?
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If you can even call it a form of analysis, why do people believe in it and why is it totally garbage?
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Technical analysis is a belief that future price movements can be predicted by current and previous price movements.
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Of course, the chartists will tell you that there's also MACD and volume and other indicators.
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It's not only price but at the end of the day guys, it comes to price.
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Okay, why do people believe that technical analysis works?
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The first reason is that they believe that prices are not random.
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The only way that you can conjecture that prices follow a trend is if you believe that prices are not random.
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Prices are indeed random guys and I'll get to that in a sec but what that really means is that prices cannot, or future prices rather, cannot be predicted.
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The second reason why people believe that technical analysis works is because it's simple.
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It plays to our lizard brains.
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It plays to our inclination to do the least amount of work and gain the most benefit from doing so.
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So what a trading guru will tell you is, hey man, just buy my course.
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All you have to do to get that yacht that you want, to create generational wealth for you and your family, is to just look at a price on a screen, and that's all you need to know.
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It's that simple.
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You can make millions of dollars.
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It's just that simple.
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It placed that lizard brain characteristic that we have as all human beings, do the least amount of work, gain the least amount of benefit.
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Have the least amount of stress in my life, gain the most happiness.
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What chartists will end up seeing themselves as is having the most amount of stress and the least amount of happiness.
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And I think it tells you a lot about an average Chartist in terms of their information processing capabilities, that all they do is focus on one indicator.
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They don't go out and research about the fundamentals of the business.
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They don't go and understand the market dynamic.
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All they care about is one indicator.
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Maybe they can't process a lot of information.
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Maybe they're too dumb to.
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Maybe they're incompetent.
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That's not for me to decide.
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That's up for you to decide.
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But just remember, it's all about one simple indicator.
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All right, guys.
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The third point is that technical analysis is so appealing because it involves pattern recognition.
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We as human beings are hardwired by nature, by God, by whatever, to recognize patterns.
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It is part of our evolutionary biology.
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We recognize patterns in terms of danger we might feel or that might come to us if we're in some sort of jungle situation or if we're hunting boar.
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And those nascent traits remain with us till today.
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They're probably actually stronger today than they were 10,000 years ago.
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Because we nowadays still need to recognize patterns, whether that pattern is in the workplace or in a social setting.
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We need to recognize patterns and we are pattern recognizing machines.
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Now, what people are sold is the idea that as long as you can recognize a pattern, as long as you can look at a piece of paper with eight patterns on it and say that one of the patterns in this ticker graph corresponds to one of these patterns, then you can make a lot of money.
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And that appeals to a lot of people.
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Okay, guys, so why is this fundamentally untrue?
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The first reason is that prices are indeed random, which means that prices cannot be predicted.
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are indeed random in the short and medium term.
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Read the book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
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There's something called Brony in Motion.
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It is a stochastic process, which means in the short and medium term, prices are entirely random.
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You won't find any trend in the one second chart.
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You won't find any trend in the five minute chart.
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You will not find any trend in the daily chart.
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You will not find any trend in the two week chart.
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The only trend that people have, or not people in general, retail investors have consistently made money off is the long-term trend.
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And the long term trend is not tradable.
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Therefore, it does not appeal to day traders because they are focused on changes that happen within the day, within maybe a two to the maximum within a week.
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They are not focused on changes that happen over a year.
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And the retail investors that make money on the stock market primarily buy and hold.
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They are there for the long term trend, not the day, not the minute, not the hourly, not the two week trend.
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Okay.
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The second reason guys plays on that simplicity point that I mentioned as to why people are drawn to technical analysis.
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People that trade technical analysis only focus on price, or rather primarily focus on price.
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They believe that previous prices can predict current and future prices.
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They have it entirely backwards because they do not understand how price works or what even is a price.
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The fundamental underpinning of technical analysis, they do not understand.
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They do not understand what a price is.
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A price is a subjective valuation of a given commodity based off the expectations of that commodity's future cash flow.
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The current price is a estimation based off future cash flow and the future price cannot be predicted based off previous prices.
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The price I'm paying today for a given asset is the sum of the discounted cash flows that that asset will generate for me in the future.
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The price I'm willing to pay for a house is the discounted rent that it will yield for me in the future if I buy it today.
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It's all about discounting the future till today.
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But what technical analysts or chartists want to tell you is that they can inverse that.
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They have it all backwards.
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They inverse that, that the past can predict the future.
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That's not what price is.
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Price is a signal of future expectations for a given commodity.
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How much that commodity will make you in the future.
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And that's why people like Warren Buffett look at discounted cash flows for a given commodity today to price it, to understand what its future price might be, given what the future will yield for this business.
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Okay, the third point, guys, relates once again to the pattern recognition part.
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Human beings, like I said, are pattern recognizing machines.
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Now, why is technical analysis bunk?
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Because you can give the same charts to two different people, and they will see different patterns in that chart.
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And those patterns will yield radically different conclusions as to the direction of that price.
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So one person will tell you, okay, I see a cup and handle or whatever.
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It's bearish or it's bullish.
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Another person will say, oh, I see a head and shoulders.
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So it's bearish.
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How can you reconcile the two positions?
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You can't.
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That's because human beings will read into the chart, whichever pattern they want to see.
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Okay.
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They will read into the chart, what they want to see.
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And that's how they will make their decisions.
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You can take the same chart, flip it 180.
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And the person looking at that chart will come to the same conclusion as they did.
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if that chart wasn't flipped.
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The same exact conclusion, okay?
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So human beings will read into the chart whatever they want to read into it.
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And furthermore, if everybody's reading the same pattern, then everybody should theoretically be making money.
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But that's not the case.
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Even if it was true that everybody's reading the same pattern, the mere fact that everybody's reading into it will mean that profits in the space will gradually dry up.
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Okay?
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Because people will see that signal and some people will act before other people.
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And so some people will be crowded out of that opportunity.
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Okay, guys, the fourth point is that people think that technical analysis is legitimate because brokerage firms will issue tech reports on technical analysis.
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Guys, brokerage firms couldn't give two shits about you.
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The fact that brokerage firms issue a technical analysis report doesn't vindicate you.
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It doesn't mean that technical analysis works.
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Me working inside a proprietary trading firm, I know the psyche of exchanges, the psyche of institutions that want you to trade on their platform.
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They want the most liquidity and the tightest bid and offer spreads, and they want to generate the most volume so they can get as many fees out of you as possible.
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So if that means that pretending technical analysis works, sure, why not?
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They'll feed you bullshit as long as you eat it up if they're going to make money off it, and of course, it's not illegal.
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So the mere fact that brokerage firms issue technical analysis reports is by no means of vindication that technical analysis actually works.
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And the last point guys is cold hard facts.
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There are plenty of empirical studies.
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One is I believe called noise trading and illusionary correlation in the U.S.
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equities market.
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And what that report pretty much says an empirical study is that the head and shoulders pattern, that's what they were analyzing in particular, does not yield any profitable trading signals in the long run.
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It is not predictive of future price movements.
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All it's predictive of is volume.
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And what that tells me is that a lot of chartists see a head and shoulders and start taking positions, whether it's bullish or bearish or whatnot, they start taking positions.
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So if you don't want to listen to anything I said, the empirical data is there to show that what I'm saying is true.
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And if you want to doubt the empirical evidence, that's another question for another video.
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I mean, you can go ahead and do that, but most likely chartists aren't going to read that empirical information because they're only focus on one piece of information, and that is price.
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Okay guys, thanks for watching this video.
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If you liked it, give it a thumbs up.
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If you hated it, double tap thumbs down to show me just how much you hated it.
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And subscribe to this channel for more videos, the latest and greatest in coding Jesus, so you can hear my gospel first.
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Thanks for watching guys.
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Cheers.
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Shadowing English
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맥락 및 배경
이 영상의 스피커는 고빈도 거래 소프트웨어 엔지니어인 CodingJesus입니다. 그는 자동으로 거래를 실행하는 알고리즘을 작성하며, 거래자가 맞춤형 전략을 제출할 수 있도록 돕는 거래 애플리케이션을 개발합니다. 이와 같은 배경 덕분에 그는 기술 분석에 대한 깊은 이해를 가지고 있으며, 본인이 왜 이것이 잘못되었다고 믿는지에 대해 논의합니다. 영상에서 그는 기술 분석이 가격의 미래 움직임을 예측할 수 없다고 주장하며, 이 때문에 기술 분석이 '쓰레기'라고 표현합니다.
매일 소통을 위한 상위 5개 구절
- “기술 분석은 잘못된 믿음입니다.”
- “미래의 가격 움직임을 예측할 수는 없습니다.”
- “사람들은 패턴 인식을 좋아합니다.”
- “가격은 무작위입니다.”
- “모든 것이 하나의 지표에 의존하고 있습니다.”
단계별 쉐도잉 가이드
이 영상은 기술 분석에 대한 비판을 다루고 있어, 조금 난해하게 느껴질 수 있습니다. 이를 효과적으로 학습하기 위해 다음과 같은 단계를 따르세요:
- 반복 듣기: 처음에는 영상 전체를 여러 번 들어보세요. 스피커의 발음과 억양에 익숙해지는 것이 중요합니다.
- 구문 분석: 위에 나열된 구절들과 중요한 문장을 선택해서 직접 발음해 보세요. 쉐도우잉 시, 같은 속도로 따라 말하면서 자신의 발음을 체크하세요.
- 문맥 이해: 기술 분석의 정의와 그에 대한 스피커의 입장을 이해하세요. 짧은 메모를 하면서 자신의 의견을 정리해보는 것도 좋습니다.
- 역할극: 영상을 본 후, 친구와 함께 이 주제에 대해 대화해 보세요. 영상을 바탕으로 서로의 의견을 나누며 실력을 향상시킬 수 있습니다.
- 실전 적용: 영상 내용을 바탕으로, 영어 쉐도잉을 통해 문장을 반복 연습하세요. 특히, 표현하는 방식이나 감정을 섞어서 자연스러운 대화처럼 연습해 보세요.
이러한 방법으로 여러분의 IELTS 스피킹 점수를 끌어올리고, 스피커처럼 자신감 있게 영어를 구사하는 데 도움이 될 것입니다. shadowspeaks 기법을 통해 보다 나은 결과를 얻을 수 있습니다.
쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법
쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.
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