跟读练习: No One Is Talking About the "Winners" of the Iran War - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
C2
Eleanor Roosevelt once said that no one won the last war and no one will win the next war,
347 句
如果句子过短或过长，请点击 Edit 进行调整。
1
Eleanor Roosevelt once said that no one won the last war and no one will win the next war,
2
but obviously someone forgot to remind her that this is actually just a special military operation,
3
because already as the conflict in Iran unfolds,
4
there are two parties that are seemingly coming out ahead without even directly getting involved.
5
Russia, now in the fourth year of its own invasion that was supposed to be over in two days,
6
is enjoying the diverted global attention away from the war in Ukraine,
7
but also potentially more importantly,
8
this shakeup of global energy flows is throwing a lifeline to an economy
9
that by most estimates was quickly running out of options.
10
Now maybe getting saved at the last second by circumstances completely
11
outside of their control may not really be winning in the traditional sense,
12
but it is giving them more of what they need,
13
which is time, money, and indifference.
14
China on the other hand is pretty openly viewing this conflict
15
as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to cement their influence on the global economy in ways
16
that will probably continue to pay out for decades to come.
17
Around two weeks ago it was announced
18
that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be relaxed for ships transacting oil in Chinese RMB,
19
rather than the long-time global default of US dollars.
20
This, at the very least,
21
was a major economic warning shot across the bow of America's global financial dominance,
22
all at the same time that even its allies are playing around with reducing their dependence on their payments infrastructure.
23
Understanding the petrodollar and what it could mean if it went away is one thing,
24
but beyond these direct economic ambitions,
25
it also must be recognised that China is seemingly getting something money can't buy,
26
regardless of what currency it is denoted in.
27
They are looking like the reasonable,
28
sensible actor trying to broker a peaceful,
29
profitable deal between the squabbling parties involved.
30
Now, whether this is actually true or not behind the geopolitical scenes,
31
it may not even matter economically,
32
because China at least has the appearance of a stable and confidence-inspiring economic partner to trade,
33
invest, or otherwise do business with.
34
But these perks also haven't come completely for free.
35
China, at the end of the day,
36
is still by far the largest net importer of oil and natural gas in the world,
37
and is hugely dependent on these energy sources to power their industries.
38
Any potential
39
and slightly abstract long-term geopolitical advantages it may be able to
40
line up need to be pragmatically weighted against the immediate reality
41
that the workshop of the world is now paying twice as much to keep the lights on.
42
So, what were the economic realities these two economies are facing?
43
How has the war in Iran furthered those interests?
44
And finally, do these countries really have a vested interest in seeing this conflict come to an end?
45
Due to this war in Iran,
46
inflation has been rapid across most of the world.
47
But it does not affect everywhere the same.
48
That's why I use Surfshark.
49
It's a VPN, a virtual private network that encrypts your internet traffic
50
and allows you to access over 4,500 servers in 100 countries.
51
Letting you check prices on things like flights,
52
hotels and consumer goods from any of these locations.
53
But it can do much more than help you get good deals.
54
Surfshark protects you from all digital hackers,
55
scrambling all your data, so it's a blur to people trying to steal your information.
56
But what separates Surfshark from most other VPNs is that it's actually actionable.
57
My favourite feature, clean web,
58
blocks all pop-ups so you can stay focused on what you're doing.
59
With AI hackers and inflation on the rise,
60
Surfshark is offering Economics Explained viewers a special deal.
61
With our code you can get 4 extra months for free.
62
Go to surfshark.com slash economics or use code economics at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN.
63
To understand why Russia is quietly celebrating this conflict,
64
we really need to look at where their economy was before the war in Iran started,
65
and what their objectives were to assess how they have either been accelerated or hampered.
66
All things considered, it's not a healthy economy.
67
Russia became the most heavily sanctioned country on earth after its invasion of Ukraine beginning in 2022,
68
after ironically taking that title off Iran.
69
Thousands of sanctions from dozens of countries have targeted Russian banks,
70
oligarchs, state-owned enterprises, and entire sectors of the economy.
71
The goal was to make the war economically unsustainable and to some extent it has worked.
72
Russia's access to global financial markets has been severely constrained,
73
major western companies have pulled out and the country's ability to import advanced technology has been significantly curtailed.
74
Inflation has been a persistent problem and their central bank has raised interest rates to over 15% to try and curb it,
75
but prices are still running hot as imports become scarce and increasingly hard to trade through legitimate channels.
76
For ordinary Russians, that means the cost of everyday goods has been climbing steadily,
77
while the range of available products has narrowed,
78
the war in Ukraine has also been devastating to Russia's long-term economic prospects.
79
Hundreds of thousands of young men have died or been injured,
80
right at the start of what would have been their working careers.
81
Which means Russia is losing a generation of productive labor at the exact moment it can least afford to.
82
The demographic implications of that alone will be felt for decades.
83
But there have been three lifelines keeping the economy from collapsing outright.
84
The first is that Russia is the most resource-rich nation on the planet oil,
85
natural gas, metals, timber, Russia has enormous quantities of practically everything the global economy runs on.
86
These resources are also somewhat fungible,
87
which means that once a barrel of Russian oil enters the global system,
88
it becomes very hard to determine where it came from,
89
especially for buyers that don't want to ask too many questions.
90
Grey market sales through intermediary countries have kept Russian energy revenues flowing even under sanctions.
91
The way this typically works is
92
that Russian crude gets shipped to a country like India or Turkey where it gets refined or blended with other oil,
93
and then re-exported as a product of that country rather than as Russian energy.
94
The original origin gets laundered out of the supply chain and by the time it reaches a European or Asian buyer,
95
there is plausible deniability built into every step of the transaction.
96
The second is that Russia is a breadbasket.
97
Domestically it can continue to feed its population just through its own agricultural production,
98
even if the selection of seasonal produce is slightly more limited than it used to be.
99
In an economic siege, food self-sufficiency is an enormous strategic advantage that many sanctioned countries simply don't have.
100
Russia is actually one of the world's largest exporters of wheat,
101
and that gives it leverage over countries that depend on grain imports to feed their populations.
102
And the third is that Russia has built a relationship of convenience with other major powers through the BRICS network,
103
most notably China.
104
China is thirsty for cheap energy and natural resources and Russia can be supported by China's manufacturing base in return.
105
It's a symbiotic relationship that neither side particularly loves but both sides very much need.
106
Russia gets manufactured goods and a willing buyer for its discounted energy exports.
107
China gets cheaper fuel than it would pay on the open market.
108
Now the war in Iran strengthens all three of these lifelines simultaneously.
109
Which is why this conflict has been quietly one of the
110
best things to happen to the Russian economy since the invasion of Ukraine began.
111
As oil supplies from the Gulf have been disrupted,
112
global oil prices have risen significantly.
113
That translates directly into greater revenues for Russia,
114
even with the discounted grey market prices they have been charging to get around sanctions.
115
Higher global benchmarks mean Russia's discounted barrels are still fetching more than they were six months ago.
116
If the global price of oil rises by $30 a barrel,
117
even a steep discount still leaves Russia better off than it was before the disruption started.
118
But it goes further than just higher prices.
119
Energy sanctions on Russia have actually been relaxed in some cases
120
as governments in the west are prioritizing keeping the lights on
121
in their own countries over the geopolitical condemnation of russia's actions in ukraine
122
which means russia is not only getting more per barrel it's
123
also finding more willing buyers who would have previously avoided russian
124
oil for political reasons the moral calculus changes quite quickly
125
when your own citizens are facing energy shortages
126
and heating bills are doubling governments
127
that were loudly condemning russian aggression two years ago are now quietly importing russian energy through intermediary channels
128
because the political cost of an energy crisis at home is
129
higher than the political cost of hypocrisy abroad the food angle
130
is also about to become much more significant oil is not
131
just used for energy it's also a key input for making nitrogen fertilizers
132
which are responsible for feeding most of the planet modern agriculture depends on ammonia-based fertilizers to sustain crop yields
133
and ammonia production requires natural gas as a feedstock without affordable fertilizer crop yields fall
134
and when crop yields fall food prices rise.
135
So as oil and gas supply disruptions persist,
136
the cost of food production globally is going to climb,
137
and countries in Africa, South Asia and the Middle East
138
that depend on imported fertilizers and grain are going to be particularly exposed.
139
Russia's agricultural output combined with its oil
140
and fertilizer exports will become even more strategically important the longer these supply issues carry on.
141
Countries that might have otherwise kept Russia at arm's length are going to start finding reasons to pick up the phone,
142
because the alternative is food insecurity at a scale they can't politically survive.
143
Russia's relationship with China could also deepen as a result,
144
because China is benefiting from this conflict in its own ways
145
and the two countries now have an even stronger shared interest in maintaining their economic partnership.
146
When both sides of a relationship are getting what they need,
147
the partnership tends to harden into something more structural than transactional.
148
And then there is the indifference factor,
149
which might actually be the most valuable thing Russia is getting out of this conflict.
150
Global media attention, diplomatic energy and military resources are all being redirected towards the middle east
151
and away from ukraine the pressure on western governments to maintain tough sanctions on russia diminishes
152
when their electorates are worried about a different war entirely now
153
to be fair none of this means russia's economic problems are solved sanctions still bite inflation is still elevated
154
and the structural damage from losing hundreds of thousands of working age men is real
155
and long lasting the central bank can't cut rates without reigniting inflation
156
and the technology gap with the west is widening every year russia's economy is surviving
157
but it is not thriving and there is There is a meaningful difference between the two.
158
An economy that is just surviving can keep going for a while,
159
but it is not building the foundations for long term prosperity and eventually the cracks catch up.
160
What the Iran war has done though is buy Russia something it desperately needed.
161
Time.
162
Time for its economy to stabilize,
163
time for global attention to drift elsewhere,
164
and time for new trade relationships to harden into something more permanent.
165
Whether that time is enough to actually turn things around is another question entirely.
166
China's situation is very different.
167
The economy is not drowning the way Russia's is,
168
which means China is viewing the Iran war less as a lifeline
169
and more as an opportunity to accelerate ambitions it already had.
170
That said, things haven't exactly been smooth.
171
Trade tensions with the United States
172
that have been playing out over the past 15 months have not been easy on Chinese industry.
173
Tariffs have raised costs, disrupted supply chains,
174
and created genuine uncertainty for manufacturers who depend on access to the American market.
175
Some industries have adjusted by rerouting exports through third countries to avoid the tariffs,
176
but that adds cost and complexity.
177
Others have simply absorbed the higher prices and accepted lower margins.
178
The property market, which is a major component of the domestic Chinese economy, is still struggling.
179
Developers that over-leverage during the boom years are carrying enormous debts,
180
and consumer confidence in real estate has not recovered.
181
Companies like Evergrande and Country Garden,
182
which were once some of the largest property developers in the world,
183
have either defaulted or are still working through restructuring processes that have dragged on for years.
184
This matters because for most Chinese households,
185
property represents their primary store of wealth.
186
Which means when property values stagnate or decline,
187
people feel poorer and spend less,
188
and that drags on the broader economy.
189
It is one of the key reasons why domestic consumption in China has been slower to recover than many economists expected.
190
The government itself has accumulated significant debt through various channels.
191
Local government financing vehicles, state-owned enterprises and direct central government borrowing.
192
This creates fiscal constraints on how aggressively Beijing can stimulate without creating new bubbles or undermining confidence in the RMB.
193
Beyond the immediate challenges though,
194
China has a set of strategic objectives that predate the Iran conflict by years
195
and the war is accelerating almost all of them.
196
The first objective is moving up the value chain.
197
China's workforce is getting older and more expensive,
198
which undermines its competitiveness in low-cost manufacturing
199
against countries like vietnam bangladesh and indonesia countries
200
that also haven't come with the strategic baggage
201
that china does like intellectual property concerns heavy government regulation on foreign businesses
202
and capital controls the response has been to pivot towards higher tech products
203
that depend on industrial expertise rather than just having the cheapest possible workforce batteries solar panels
204
and electric vehicles are the headline industries here
205
and china now dominates all three at a global level chinese
206
companies now produce more than 80 of the world's solar panels and roughly 75% of all lithium-ion batteries.
207
The second objective is building up the loose coalition of countries
208
that have been left aside from the Western-led global economic system for the past 50 years.
209
This has manifested in things like the BRICS partnership,
210
which China has been actively expanding beyond its original five members.
211
It has also shown up in direct investment into developing economies,
212
particularly across Africa, with varying levels of strings attached.
213
And of course the Belt and Road Initiative,
214
which is essentially China's infrastructure diplomacy program building ports,
215
railways and telecommunications networks across Asia,
216
Africa and Latin America to create trade dependencies that flow through Beijing.
217
The idea is straightforward.
218
If your country's most important port was built with Chinese money and your telecommunications backbone runs on Chinese technology,
219
the economic relationship becomes very hard to walk away from.
220
The war in Iran is accelerating almost every single one of these strategic objectives,
221
and in some cases creating entirely new opportunities that didn't exist before the conflict started.
222
The most immediate advantage is the opportunity to push the RMB as a viable alternative currency for global trade.
223
The Strait of Hormuz arrangement,
224
where the blockade was relaxed specifically for ships transacting in Chinese RMB,
225
was a direct challenge to the US dollar's dominance in global energy markets.
226
For countries that fear reprisals from the United States,
227
which has clearly shown it is willing to weaponize its payments infrastructure as a geopolitical bargaining tool,
228
the RMB is starting to look like a practical alternative.
229
Not because they trust China more necessarily,
230
but because having a second option reduces their vulnerability to American financial pressure.
231
To understand why this matters,
232
you need to understand how the petrodollar system works.
233
Since the 1970s, the vast majority of global oil has been priced and traded in US dollars.
234
This means that every country that imports oil needs to hold dollar reserves,
235
which creates enormous global demand for dollars and for US government debt.
236
That demand is one of the key reasons America can borrow as cheaply as it does
237
and run the deficits that it does
238
if even a fraction of global oil trade shifts to being denominated in rmb instead of dollars it would reduce
239
that structural demand for dollars and increase demand for rmb
240
that might sound abstract but it has very real consequences for borrowing costs currency stability
241
and the geopolitical leverage that comes with controlling the world's reserve currency
242
if the rmb can establish itself as even a partial alternative petro currency
243
that also changes the dynamics around china's own debt chinese government
244
debt denominated in rmb becomes slightly more attractive as a cash equivalent
245
if other countries are already holding RMB reserves for energy purchases.
246
It's not going to replace US treasuries overnight,
247
but even a marginal shift in global reserve holdings is economically significant.
248
The countries that China has been investing in across Africa,
249
Central Asia and the developing world are also likely to become even more China focused as a result of this conflict.
250
When the United States is projecting military force and China is projecting economic stability and infrastructure investment,
251
the choice for countries that just want to trade and develop their own economies becomes a little easier to make.
252
There are also direct benefits to the major industries China has been building its future around.
253
Solar panels, batteries
254
and electric vehicles are all going to be in significantly greater demand as oil prices rise and energy security concerns intensify globally.
255
China has become the undisputed global leader in all three sectors,
256
which means elevated oil prices don't just hurt their competitors,
257
they actively boost demand for China's most strategically important exports.
258
Every country
259
that decides to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuel dependency
260
is almost certainly going to be buying Chinese equipment to do it.
261
The West has been talking about energy transition for years,
262
but China has been building the actual supply chain,
263
and that head start is now paying off in a way
264
that even the most optimistic projections in Beijing probably didn't anticipate happening this quickly.
265
Beyond all of the economic mechanics,
266
China is gaining something that's arguably harder to put price on.
267
They look like a stable third party.
268
Even if other countries don't necessarily trust China's intentions,
269
they are at the very least somewhat consistent and predictable with their objectives,
270
which in a crisis makes them easier to deal with than actors whose positions shift with domestic politics.
271
If China can successfully mediate or even partially broker a resolution to this conflict,
272
it will gain significant clout on the world stage as more than just the big economy that makes stuff,
273
but as a genuine global power that can shape outcomes.
274
That kind of reputation takes decades to build under normal circumstances.
275
The Iran war is offering China a shortcut.
276
Now of course it would be misleading to pretend that this conflict has been nothing but good news for either country,
277
and particularly for China there are some real costs accumulating.
278
The RMB is still a compromised currency.
279
Capital controls and government intervention in the exchange rate mean
280
that it will get a boost from countries that don't have any other options,
281
but it is still unlikely to become the global default anytime soon.
282
Trust in a reserve currency ultimately comes from trust in the institutions behind it.
283
Transparent central banking, rule of law,
284
open capital markets, and China's financial system is still far more opaque than what most major trading economies are comfortable relying on.
285
You can't freely move money in and out of China the way you can with dollars or euros,
286
and that is a significant limitation for any currency trying to become a global standard.
287
Countries will use the RMB when they have to,
288
but they won't choose it voluntarily over a currency they can actually move around without government approval.
289
China is also incredibly oil and energy dependent.
290
As prices have risen, the country is paying substantially more for something that it overwhelmingly imports in one direction.
291
All of those abstract long-term geopolitical advantages need to be weighed against the very concrete reality that Chinese factories,
292
power plants, and transport networks are all more expensive to operate at the moment.
293
And it's also undermining the strength of a lot of China's coalitions at the same time as making them more important.
294
BRICS now has more than just its title name members,
295
and those extra members include Iran,
296
Iran, but they also include Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
297
two countries that Iran is actively attacking.
298
Geopolitical coalitions tend to work better when their constituent members aren't blowing one another up.
299
The credibility of BRICS as a serious alternative to western-led institutions takes a real hit
300
when the group can't even maintain peace among its own members.
301
This doesn't necessarily mean BRICS collapses,
302
but it does mean that managing the coalition just got significantly harder for Beijing.
303
The diplomatic balancing act of maintaining good relations with both Iran
304
and the Gulf states simultaneously is not a problem that gets easier as the conflict escalates.
305
At some point Beijing may have to pick a side,
306
and that's a choice it has been very carefully trying to avoid.
307
So the question is, do Russia and China actually want this conflict to come to an end?
308
The honest answer is complicated,
309
because their interests don't fully align even with each other.
310
For Russia, the incentives are almost entirely in favor of the conflict continuing,
311
at least in the short to medium term.
312
Every month the war in Iran drags on is another month of higher oil prices,
313
relaxed sanctions enforcement, and diminished global attention on Ukraine.
314
Moscow doesn't need to do anything to benefit from this,
315
it just needs the world to stay distracted.
316
Russia's economy has not fundamentally reformed,
317
it has simply found breathing room.
318
If the Iran war ended tomorrow and by some miracle oil prices quickly dropped back to pre-conflict levels,
319
many of the pressures that were building before the conflict started would come roaring back.
320
For China, it's more nuanced.
321
The strategic opportunities are real,
322
the RMB gains, the coalition building,
323
the demand for green energy exports,
324
but the costs of elevated oil prices and of fractured bricks are also real.
325
China's ideal outcome would probably be a resolution that it gets to broker,
326
which gives it the diplomatic credibility,
327
while also bringing oil prices back down to levels that are more favorable for its manufacturing base.
328
A prolonged conflict serves some of China's interests,
329
but a swift Chinese mediated peace would serve almost all of them,
330
Which is why Beijing has been publicly positioning itself as the responsible adult in the room,
331
even as it quietly benefits from the chaos.
332
The uncomfortable reality is that both countries are rational economic actors who will make decisions based on their own interests,
333
not on abstract principles about war and peace.
334
And right now their interests are at the very least not pointing strongly towards a swift resolution.
335
This is one of the more underappreciated dynamics of this conflict.
336
The countries with the most influence over the parties involved,
337
the ones who could theoretically apply the most economic pressure to bring things to a close,
338
are also the ones who are benefiting the most from it continuing.
339
That creates a structural incentive problem that makes a negotiated peace significantly harder to achieve.
340
These aren't just petty squabbles either.
341
These attacks will have real implications across these countries,
342
making throwing the future effectiveness of this group into serious doubt.
343
But we have actually made an entire video on the economic fallout of the Iran war on the gulf itself,
344
so as always we don't want to repeat too much here,
345
but you should be able to click to that on your screen now.
346
Thanks for watching mate.
347
Bye.
下载应用
AI 为你说出的每个句子打分
TRENDING
热门
背景与脉络
本视频讨论了伊朗战争的经济影响，尤其是如何在这个全球关注度上升的情境中，俄罗斯和中国作为“赢家”站稳脚跟。尽管爱莲娜·罗斯福曾说过“没有人赢得上一场战争”，但我们可以看到，非直接参与战争的国家也在此过程中发现了机遇。随着全球对能源流动的重新配置，俄罗斯能够获得必要的经济支持，而中国则利用这一机会巩固其全球经济的影响力。这说明了在国际事务中，经济利益与地缘政治动态是交织在一起的。
日常交流常用的五个短语
- “没有人赢得上一场战争” - 这句使人在讨论战争或冲突时能引发深思。
- “全球金融主导地位” - 用以描述影响世界经济的国家或货币。
- “温和的经济伙伴” - 形容一个国家在国际交易中被视为可靠的合作伙伴。
- “能源来源的依赖” - 讨论任何国家在维持其工业运作时面临的挑战。
- “通货膨胀的影响” - 描述经济状况对日常生活及交易的直接影响。
逐步跟读指南
要有效掌握本视频的内容，提升你的英语口语能力，你可以遵循以下步骤进行跟读练习：
- 选择短片段：从视频中选出一小段（推荐30秒），这段可以是关于国家经济的讨论。
- 反复观看：观看选定片段几遍，注意发音、语调和节奏。
- 逐句跟读：垫入字幕，吟唱视频中所说的内容，尽量模仿说话者的语音语调。
- 记录并回听：将自己的跟读录音与原声对比，找出需要改进的地方。
- 重复练习：通过这样的shadowing方式，每天抽出10-15分钟来练习，以增强语言能力。
通过这种方法，你可以在生活中自然而然地应用这些短语，并在雅思口语练习中获得更大的信心和流利度。此外，利用看YouTube学英语的机会，不仅可以提高听力，也能在shadowing site上与他人分享经验，互相学习，达到更好的效果。同时，在社交中流利地应用这些表达，将使你在与人交谈时更具吸引力。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。