Shadowing-Übung: Did the Ai Bubble just Pop? - Englisch Sprechen Lernen mit YouTube

On Friday, we saw precious metals,

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On Friday, we saw precious metals,

stocks, cryptos, and several other big markets come tumbling down off of,

well, basically right around the jobs report,

which was sort of an interesting dynamic because you had very solid jobs,

which does make sense as to why this sent precious metals lower.

We have been bullish on the dollar on the channel,

so this was nice to see,

but was maybe a little bit more confusing for a lot of traders was the very sharp drop

that we saw in the NASDAQ.

I believe this is the largest one-day drop that we have had in the stock market in a couple years now.

This was no short of impressive in terms of how much the bears took this thing down.

talking about a 5.2% close lower on the Qs with the NASDAQ.

Let's just take a look here just to see if there was any post-market action.

And you can see we kind of did see a little bit follow through in the post-market action,

completely tanking lower in the markets here in the last few trading days.

So what's going on?

Is this a buyable tip?

Is this the spot we need to start stepping in and buying the dip already on stocks?

Or is this thing due for a much larger corrective pullback?

Now, this does feel nice on my side,

because I've been on the channel for a while talking about how,

you know, I think that we are due for some sort of healthy correction or pullback in stocks.

And I've not been trading them.

So I don't have a short position on or a long position on.

I'm just, you know, kind of been waiting for pullback.

So it's nice to see one actually take place.

And this just goes to show,

you know, in this little pullback here,

we essentially erased going as far back as,

you know, 28 days ago.

So you can see how quickly when stocks sell off and for example,

if we were to see this thing follow through,

you can see how very quickly indices can give back gains.

They tend to crawl higher and then drop very,

very quickly when they are ready.

Anyways, is this a viable dip?

We'll talk about that here in today's video.

We'll also talk about the dollar,

which is screaming higher and is turning into a decent little position here for me.

I am short silver.

Let me show you my position real quick.

Okay, so here is the silver position.

I am sitting on a decent little gain here.

Well, I shouldn't say little.

It's a good gain.

We got about a $14,000 runner here on silver.

Now, granted, if you've been keeping up with the channel,

then you know I had about a $5,000 loss on gold attempting to short that previously.

So this is all things considered,

and a very nice gain that I had to,

you know, try once before in order to achieve this sort of idea.

But let's talk a little bit about where we are with precious metals,

where we are with stocks,

and I'll try and keep it brief

because I'm going to have a Sunday video where I go even more in detail tomorrow.

By the way, as we get started,

remember this is not financial advice.

If you could subscribe, hit that thumbs up button, all that good stuff.

I greatly appreciate it.

And we'll get right into it.

Okay, so silver, right?

Silver and gold.

I mean, really, these things did the same thing on Friday,

they both took out kilos.

And I really liked the switch over to silver instead,

because what you can see here is that obviously,

silver is the higher volatility instrument,

it moves more on a percentage basis than gold does.

So you can see silver was down 8.3% on Friday.

That is a absolute fallout.

And I believe, let me make sure I'm not wrong about this.

Yeah, we are back down to the lows.

We're back down approximately to the lows that we have seen of 2026.

Precious metals have been struggling in 2026.

And let me outline why,

as we have been doing the last few weeks,

why we have this bullish dollar bearish metals idea.

And I should extend that to bonds as well.

So if I go over to edgefinder here,

I'm going to move this off the screen and switch over to our asset scorecard really quick.

I'm going to seek out specifically the dollar,

which is kind of at the center of all of this.

And first of all, as if we needed more reason to be positive on the dollar recently,

institutions have been adding dollar long exposure,

a 3% shift positively week over week,

according to our latest commitment Traders data tools tracking this stuff shows,

again, buyers in the dollar world amongst institutions.

Kind of interesting.

Fundamental score is getting a plus seven, guys.

This is a screaming, screaming confluence of economic indicators.

Economic growth data coming in very bullish.

We had PMIs come in better than expected.

Consumer confidence better than expected.

Meanwhile, inflation, CPI, PPI are hot.

The two-year yield is on the rise,

and the jobs report number was blockbuster.

Not this time, not the last time,

but all three of the previous times,

we had strong jobs numbers to sort of buck the trend.

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Now, I've heard some people saying,

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well, is this the World Cup hiring?

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Maybe, but the point is sort of to the side for a second.

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We have hiring going on that the market,

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considering that World Cup was in the thought process of these very intelligent groups that put together these forecasts.

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It's just very difficult.

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This is a very challenging problem to try and predict jobs numbers at a macro,

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you know, huge scale like this.

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Anyways, the numbers beat expectation consensus at 85 and came in at 172.

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So then you have ADP numbers came in better.

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Jolt's job openings were very solid.

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So you have this situation,

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this perfect storm where we have the dollar actually breaking higher on a day in which oil's moving lower.

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Now, why is that a very important point that I do not want to brush over?

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Oil was down on Friday.

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Dollar was up.

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What this is telling you is that while,

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yes, there has been geopolitics that have contributed to the dollar's,

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you know, kind of safe haven demand.

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this rally is also heavily in isolation due to the macro

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data coming in really solid jobs numbers solid PMI solid as

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we just went through the list our software here what it

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does is it essentially looks at all this data summarizes it builds a scorecard

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and boom dollar has been bullish on edgefinder since mid-may

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so tracking the macro has been a massive win

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if you've been watching the dollar

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if you've been keyed in on what's going on with the data

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and not ignoring it a lot traders just think fundamentals are too hard,

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so they just ignore them.

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But if you lean in and acknowledge what they're telling you,

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they can give you some huge clues about where market trends may be going next.

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So dollar looks really strong.

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And so again, I took that as an opportunity.

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I have been taking stabs long on the dollar.

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So I have a UUP long position.

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Let me see if I can just show you switch over on this other screen

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so that I could just switch my P&L here to UUP.

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So this is my UUP position.

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This is also absolutely rocketing higher.

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UUP is just a ETF that tracks the dollar.

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So it's DXY kind of ETF variation.

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Anyways, DXY flying higher.

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I think it has room to come up to where we've talked about.

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Well, actually, we did hit our target in terms of the 100 mark we've been talking about on the channel.

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But I do think we have room to potentially,

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if data continues to to come in the way it has

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been to grind on up to the top end of this one year range, the 102 mark.

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So that's kind of my next spot where I think price could go for the dollar.

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I am also short the British pound against the US dollar.

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And so far we are looking good.

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We're looking really good here.

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Shorted this one, it sat a while,

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so it didn't really go anywhere,

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but then finally moved lower here ultimately,

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which which has been nice

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and whenever i take a position i share it inside of our discord server for our vip members

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so i went short silver like i mentioned i've been giving

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updates as to where i am with the trade what i'm

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doing it with it uh why i took the position right

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we broke down on the day the trade was taken why

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this trade was entered we also of course have my forex trades here so i'm still in my pound dollar short position.

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This one has been going really well.

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And then of course, stocks,

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options, index, and my journal where I'm sharing updates on what's going on.

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I just wanted to mention this because currently we are running a really big discount.

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That will be for a limited time.

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um anyways so dollar strength crypto absolutely getting nailed on uh on friday

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and really the whole week before that and really the whole year

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so far crypto has been in a pain trade to say

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the very least uh even you know despite the nasdaq finally

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kind of showing some signs of pullback uh we have to

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remember this is still just a you know a 6.5 percent pullback following a 35 rally.

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I also want to just issue a bit of caution here because for me personally,

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when it comes to the NASDAQ,

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the question is, do I want to buy here?

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Well, I'm curious.

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I'm watching it.

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Institutions did some selling on the NAS.

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Economic data has been actually improving in some ways,

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like growth has been good.

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Jobs market data has been good.

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Inflation data is just kind of holding us back here.

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So am I super bullish stock market?

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No. But as we pull back,

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I start to get interested again.

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If we take a look at SPX,

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SPX saw net selling by institutions ahead of this sell-off that we saw on Friday,

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which is worth mentioning, right?

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We saw crowd sentiment, however,

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get really bearish on Friday.

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Let me see if I can pull that up here.

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Put call ratio.

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Just take a little bit of a detour.

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Yeah, look at this, right?

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So June 5th, that's going to be Friday's trading action, put volume exploded.

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Crowd sentiment went very bearish.

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And I'm going to say this,

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I don't know what's going to happen on Monday,

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but I've seen this story play out so many times where Friday crashes lower and then Monday you get the pop.

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And it doesn't necessarily mean we regain all the way back up and we just keep flying higher.

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But a lot of times you get sort of that weekend sell-off effects,

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like people do not want to hold it into the weekend.

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And then on Monday, they sort of buy back their positions.

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So we'll see if that takes place.

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Again, that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to fly through the highs.

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I do think you have challenges with the uncertainty in the Middle East,

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with the SpaceX IPO stuff.

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That was kind of a little bit of drama.

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I've been talking about that on the channel.

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I'm not going to go into too much detail on that.

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But they postponed their ability to get into the S&P 500,

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causing a little bit of jitters around the very hype stories that are coming to the market right now.

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SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, all these big names coming public,

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if they kind of postpone that,

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it sets out some challenges.

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That being said, from a technical basis,

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where do I see NASDAQ potentially going?

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Well, you pretty much have this level here.

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That's like the one everyone's probably looking at.

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But then beyond that, you have the 38.2,

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which doesn't really line up very well with anything.

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The 50% level doesn't really line up very well with any major structure.

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The next level that looks pretty obvious is the 61.8% retracement because it lines up with the prior all-time high.

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And this would be a spot where personally,

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I would definitely be looking to add something,

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whether it be short-term long trades or adding positions to my portfolio in stocks that I like for the longer term.

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That is a 16% pullback in the NASDAQ.

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What would that mean for the S&P?

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Same kind of markup here.

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Let's get our fibs out.

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And you can see that in this case,

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it would be a 50% retracement back to the all-time high,

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where I think you have a more solid case for a possible bounce.

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What would that look like in terms of a percentage pullback?

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Well, that's about an 8% to 9% pullback,

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a very normal pullback in a bull market,

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especially when you have such explosive volatility to the upside.

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And then suddenly, you know,

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that VIX comes back in.

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The VIX was up 40% on Friday.

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This is a no joke jump in the VIX.

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The question is, do you get sort of this follow through?

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Like here's the last time it happened,

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you had the pop and then it completely kind of cratered back down.

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Or is it even going to be a larger one?

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I just don't know that you have the catalyst for that type of move.

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So that kind of leans me into the case of if the VIX continues to pop higher,

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I'll probably sell some premium in the options world,

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meaning selling cash secured puts on stocks that I like.

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If the stock market continues to fall and VIX stays elevated,

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you start getting paid more premium for doing that and vice versa.

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If we're looking at NASDAQ,

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S&P, these levels here start to become very attractive.

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But at these current levels,

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I would

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if I was getting long I don't quite have the signal

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from edge finder for me to look at a possible long setup

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but we're getting close we have like plus three plus four scores on edge finder for for S&P

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and NASDAQ respectively if you do see

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that score start to continue to improve then I may look

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at some small stabs on the long side from short-term trading perspectives

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but for me right now I am just going to kind

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of let the dust settle I've got my hands busy with my shorts on silver.

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And again, my longs on dollar.

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So going to mostly stick to playing that.

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So I will keep an eye on the put call ratio, though.

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This does make me think you could see some kind of a bounce.

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Have a great week ahead.

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