शैडोइंग अभ्यास: Crosstalk: Việt Nam sustains strong growth amid global headwinds | Vietnam Today - YouTube के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें

Vietnam's economy is entering a new phase not just economically but institutionally.

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Vietnam's economy is entering a new phase not just economically but institutionally.

As the new terms of the National Assembly begins,

expectations are rising for a stronger reform agenda,

one that can unlock the next stage of growth.

And the timing is critical.

While the economy is delivering strong results,

the real challenge ahead is no longer about growth itself,

but the structure needed to sustain it.

And now let's dive deep into the performance.

Vietnam's economy is off to a strong start in 2026.

GDP in the first quarter expanded by 7.83%.

It is the fastest Q1 growth in the past decade.

But what's really powering this momentum?

As you can see in this chart,

export remained the primary growth engine.

Total export turnover reached nearly US$123 billion.

up more than 19% year-on-year,

and that tells us global demand is still holding up for Vietnam's manufacturing sector,

especially in electronics and processing industries.

Industrial production rose by around 9% in the first quarter,

and the momentum is coming overwhelmingly from manufacturing and processing.

At the core is export-led production,

with strong global demand pushing upwards in key sectors like electronics,

machinery, textiles, and footwear as exports surge more than 19% year-on-year.

High-value manufacturing continues to lead.

And from this table, foreign investment is accelerating again.

Registered FDI surge by nearly 43% in renewed investor confidence.

And this is not just about capital inflows,

but also about Vietnam positions in global supply chain restructuring.

Domestic stability and policy coordination continue to play a key role.

With the current global uncertainties,

this strong performance comes at a critical turning point.

As the new National Assembly term begins,

the focus is shifting toward institutional reform,

legal clarity and market efficiency.

We are joined online with Mr. Bjorn Kolovsky,

Vice Chairman of German Business Association,

GBA, representing the international business community and connecting with us from his office in Ho Chi Minh City,

Mr. Matthew Laure, chairman of Alithium,

with extensive experience in investment and capital structuring across the region.

Gentlemen, thank you for joining us today.

Thank you so much for having me.

Yeah, thank you for having me.

Now, how would you interpret this Q1 performance?

And is this a sign of underlying structural strength or is it largely a cyclical rebound?

It's a magnificent result and I think unexpected by some given where the world is.

So Vietnam has overperformed from an investment perspective,

from a growth perspective and an output perspective,

and that is a reflection of what's been happening in recent years.

So from what point of view the Q1 results of Vietnam's GDP figures were very solid with 7.8 percent.

FDI also reached a five-year high.

You had imports and exports surging by roughly one-fifth.

So I would really say that Vietnam currently is a beacon of economic stability.

It is for sure one of the most attractive markets worldwide.

We're considering all of the stimulus that the Vietnamese government is pushing at the moment,

for example, infrastructure investments and government deficiency,

I would truly say this is more structural growth than a cyclical rebound.

There's some risks coming ahead,

but it is the continuity of what policies have been put in place

and what the Vietnamese government has been striving to achieve.

So from that point of view,

it's not just procedural, it is an impact of what we have been trying to achieve in Vietnam.

As Vietnam moves into the second quarter,

the growth outlook is becoming more challenging.

As one of the most open economies in the region,

Vietnam remains highly exposed to global headwinds,

facing overlapping pressures from the global economic environment.

Thank you.

These external shocks are now feeding directly into domestic pressures,

particularly through energy and logistics.

And as energy costs rise and supply uncertainties persist,

the challenge is no longer just about managing external risks,

but about ensuring that the domestic system can keep pace with growing demand.

As a country with 101 million people that's growing quickly,

Vietnam's energy needs are growing quickly.

And, you know, putting aside the conflict in the Middle East right now,

even without that, we could see the challenges going forward to Vietnam,

for Vietnam to be able to meet its energy needs in the future.

So that's going to mean a whole mix of the energy available.

Against this, structural reform is becoming increasingly critical.

Sustaining high growth will depend not only on external conditions,

but also on how effectively internal bottlenecks are addressed.

Removing institutional barriers is now seen as a key solution to support Vietnam's ambition of achieving double-digit growth this year. In early

April, the Party Central Committee issued Conclusion 18,

setting the direction for Vietnam's development over the next five years.

The message is clear.

Growth must move beyond momentum towards structure.

Which of these headwinds do you see as the most immediate risk to Vietnam's growth outlook?

OK, so I'm going to break it down to a couple of small parts.

So one is we will see decision-making being slower in Q2.

So we will see the capital flows.

Now, we may not see that until Q3 because capital flows are generally 30 days to 90 days,

how they flow about commitments.

But we're going to see decision-making slow.

So that will affect capital flow this year,

in my opinion, because people are more cautious.

The other problem is cost.

So we're seeing that trade deficit.

So it's in two-way trade, Vietnam's growing dramatically.

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We're seeing great growth, but we're seeing deficits and we're seeing lower margins.

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And that's a lot of the input costs,

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the fuel costs coming through.

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and also the efficiency and the productivity of the new businesses coming to Vietnam.

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And so we've got to make sure that the productivity,

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the investment sectors are looked after as well.

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Otherwise, that will come back and hurt us,

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both from an inflation perspective and a long-term benefits domestic economy.

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So those are the two things that I see as the biggest concern is that the slowdown in FDI coming in

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and the cost and deficits and the international cost structure

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that we're seeing in the productivity mixed together of the existing output of Vietnam.

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To what extent does Vietnam's current growth model remain exposed to external shocks?

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Yeah, so the number one risk is for sure exports.

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So the world market does not demand as many materials,

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machinery, textiles as it used to be.

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This can of course impact Vietnam's However,

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again, we are seeing that the Vietnamese government is pushing for more local consumption,

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especially through infrastructure investments.

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So in the future, this can of course help.

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Also, with the people here in Vietnam earning more,

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there's of course a larger local market,

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and this would also help to kind of immunize Vietnam against external growth shocks,

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similar to what we see in America where they have a huge local consumption market.

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Thank you.

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In today's global environment, capital is no longer just tracing growth.

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It's also navigating risk.

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Take recent market behavior.

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Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and global uncertainties have triggered repeated risk-off cycles,

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pushing investors towards safer access and making flows into emerging markets more volatile.

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And for countries like Vietnam, the bar is rising because attracting capital now depends not only on economic performance,

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but on market credibility.

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And in that context, Vietnam has recently received a significant boost.

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On April 8th, Pussy Russell confirmed the update of Vietnam to emerging market status starting September 21st. Based on its interim review,

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this marks the long-awaited milestone for Vietnam's equity market.

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reflecting years of regulatory reform and improves market accessibility.

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So as I said, 1.5 billion or so of inflows should be coming out of the FTSE upgrade.

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But in the case of MSCI,

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it is much, much larger,

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both in terms of passive funds that are benchmarked to MSCI indexes.

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More importantly, it opens the door to a much larger opportunity.

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So while the FTSE upgrade strengthens Vietnam's position,

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It does not eliminate the structural questions.

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Because in a more volatile global environment,

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capital is not just about access.

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It is about confidence and ultimately about whether the system is ready to absorb and sustain it.

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That is the question now moving to the center of the discussion.

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Now we get back to our guests.

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What are the most urgent policy priorities to improve Vietnam's capital absorption capacity?

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IFC is one of those,

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but it's very narrow in the sectors.

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It's not addressing manufacturing, it's not addressing the large capital needs of Vietnam,

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but it is addressing Vietnam as a location for capital parking and using capital.

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So I like that.

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But there's a greater need is that there is still a lack of certainty with funds flow.

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Small issues can actually delay capital.

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So therefore, investors in a range of things,

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sectors won't bring the funds in if there's any risk of bringing it out.

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So they don't park money in BetMam,

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they only bring in the bare minimum and then we're not getting the capital cycles that we need.

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So we need to make sure

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that the capital flows aren't restricted due to small procedural matters and that we see an easier flow of funds.

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The regulations need to be amended.

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Now, there are risk protection that you've got to be careful of to make sure we're not doing things the wrong way,

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but But at the same time,

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we've got to remove the fear from foreign investors in respect to how they bring money in

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or don't bring money in to make that free flow.

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From your experience, what structural changes would make Vietnam more attractive for long-term capital deployment?

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Yeah.

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So one thing that Vietnam surely still has to work on is the topic of compliance.

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So international companies, they value transparency a lot.

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So to really deploy capital effectively on long term,

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we would hope for very transparent ways of issuing tenders and how to place projects with certain contractors.

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So I would say compliance would be one of the things that the Vietnamese government can still work on.

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Many businesses say the challenge is no longer entering the market but navigating it.

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It is not a lack of opportunity but the remaining complexity making investments work in practice,

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especially at at a time when global conflicts and geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and raising uncertainty for investors worldwide.

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I think it's important to note that the regulatory framework is one,

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if not the most important items on the list of foreign investment.

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So it's very important that regulators speak very clear language to the foreign investment community or to all the recipients of regulations.

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So they have a clear guardrail,

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clear guideline, clear roadmap for making their investment work.

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And for investors, predictability is critical.

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I think another area that's important are things like investment policies and having stable tax policies,

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making sure that rules and regulations are at international standards.

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Vietnam is now a leading manufacturing hub in the world.

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It's a leading growth market

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and therefore we need to start setting ambitions of being leading

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in the world in terms of welcoming new businesses into this country.

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I would really like to see in Vietnam that we have a consideration of easing administrative burdens here,

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including the increased burden on foreign companies to get foreign workers into the country.

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Vietnam is not short of capital,

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but to fully unlock it,

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the system needs to be simpler,

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more consistent, and more predictable.

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And as the new National Assembly term begins,

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that is where the focus is expected to sharpen,

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turning reform into results and making capital work more effectively for the next phase of growth.

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And what should be the top legislative priorities for the new National Assembly to unlock long-term growth?

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Keeping the path we're on now without overcomplicating too many reforms,

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but I like the path we're taking and knocking down barriers

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and addressing structural change with how companies are set up and all of those.

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That's fantastic.

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But now focusing on taking Vietnam to the world and not being concerned about the rush of capital outflows,

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actually focusing on generating Vietnamese businesses going abroad and taking Vietnam to the world.

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So if the National Assembly can get their head around that

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and take Vietnam to the world and not just the world to Vietnam,

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I think we'll be so much better off three, five years out.

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And I think that'll be the next step as Vietnam matures in its current cycle.

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We take Vietnam to the world as that next cycle from Vietnam.

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So how important is policy consistency and leadership direction in shaping investor confidence over the next five to ten years?

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Policy consistency and leadership is something that the Vietnamese government has already proven.

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And what, of course,

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we would love to see over the next 10 to 5 to 10 years is to go down this path

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and to continue to discuss with foreign

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and also local investors on what is good and where we should preserve the status quo.

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But to also identify sectors where we could improve together.

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I've got some investors who feel terribly badly done by,

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not because the authorities have done anything wrong, just because change.

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And change is complicated for long-term investment.

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Well, thank you both of our guests for joining our program today.

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Vietnam's economy has demonstrated resilience as global conditions become more uncertain.

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The next phase of growth will depend less on momentum and more on structure,

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on how capital is absorbed and how institutions evolved

223

and how policy is executed under a new leadership cycle

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because in the end sustainable growth is not defined by how fast an economy expands

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but by how well it is built to endure

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