쉐도잉 연습: The End Game of U.K Economics - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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In the last decade, the UK's population has risen at its fastest pace since the 1960s.

And no, it's not because the Brits are suddenly getting broody.

Fertility is actually falling.

It's because immigration has surged to record highs.

Which is funny, only 10 years ago, millions of Brits voted for Brexit specifically to reduce immigration.

So then why has the exact opposite happened?

The obvious explanation is that Britain has an aging population and persistent labor shortages.

Employers need workers, so the government made it easier to bring them in.

But these labour gaps deserve questioning, because paradoxically, the UK has a staggering 1 million young people who aren't in work, education or training.

This sounds less like a labour shortage and more like a broken system, where the economy is failing to allocate spare labour capacity into the sectors that demand them.

But the migration conundrum gets even stranger, because while workers are coming in, there's a growing population of wealthy entrepreneurs who for a host of reasons are leaving.

And this comes with its own set of potentially crippling problems.

Immigration debates tend to be emotionally charged and focus on national identity, cultural integration and fairness.

The cold hard economics tends to get sidelined.

So, as always, we have some questions to answer.

If Brexit was meant to reduce immigration, why has it rapidly increased instead?

Is the UK reliant on immigration as a quick and cheap solution to deeper problems with skills, wages and productivity?

And finally, how economically damaging is the emigration of wealthy British nationals?

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UK population growth has accelerated.

From 1971 to 2000, the average annual growth rate stood at 0.18%, but from 2001 to the present day, it averaged 0.66%.

This has recently caught headlines following back-to-back years of over 1% growth, representing the highest level of population increase since the late 1940s.

The difference is that this time it wasn't because of a baby boom.

It has been driven almost exclusively by net migration.

That is, the total number of long-term arrivals minus the number of long-term departures.

Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, when swathes of British people voted to leave on the premise of reducing immigration, net immigration has totaled over 3 million people.

So, did Brexit somehow open the borders by accident?

Not exactly.

What really happened was that in 2021, a single points-based system was introduced to judge EU and non-EU citizens by the same criteria for the first time.

On its own, that's not obviously a recipe for more migration.

For EU citizens it was actually way harder to move to the UK, since they were no longer allowed to move to the UK visa-free, and it showed in the data.

Since the Brexit referendum, EU immigration to the UK has consistently declined, and from 2022 there has been more EU citizens leaving the UK than have been entering.

But EU citizens were the exception.

The new points based system allowed the UK government to have more control over their own migration policy.

With this, they relaxed the rules and opened new migration pathways, which made it easier for non-EU citizens to migrate.

Now, you're probably wondering, why did they relax the rules and open new pathways?

Well, we can answer this by honing in on three types of migration.

Educational migration, labour migration and humanitarian migration.

In the UK education sector and for UK labour markets, immigration was good for business business.

In 2021-22, the UK economy was in a rough patch, recovering from the pandemic and facing the highest levels of inflation since the 1970s.

Incentives existed to increase immigration.

In higher education, UK universities dramatically expanded their sponsorship of student visas.

International demand for British universities is strong, making higher education one of the UK's largest exports.

But in 2021, British universities were under severe financial pressure due to cost inflation.

Cost inflation that they could not pass on to domestic students

because there was price cap on tuition fees set at £9,250 a year.

But here's the catch, this price cap does not exist for international students.

Given the strong international demand, they are charged far more and are a lucrative revenue source for the sector.

So when cost inflation puts the sector under increased financial pressure, expanding international recruitment becomes the obvious solution.

And with the post-Brexit study visas allowing two years of work in the UK post-graduation, the UK government made the offer even more attractive for families around the world who could afford the high fees.

At the peak in 2022, 484,000 international students migrated to the UK.

That's an 80% increase compared to 2019, just before the post-Brexit immigration system had been implemented.

So incentives in the UK higher education sector explain a large chunk of the increase in UK immigration.

But what else?

Well, in many UK labour markets, there were severe shortages.

In particular, the health and care sector was in a bad spot.

Britain's ageing population was already increasing demand for healthcare and social care workers.

COVID then added treatment backlogs, long-term sickness and severe pressure on existing staff, widening shortages.

The government responded again by relaxing health and care visa rules.

Care workers became eligible for the visa in 2022 for the first time.

The number of health and care visas granted nearly tripled in a year from 47,000 to 146,000 by 2023.

Labor shortages grew in other key sectors too.

In construction, there were 38,000 vacancies a month.

Wholesale and retail job adverts were 74% above pre-pandemic levels.

And in farming, the labor shortage was acute enough

that over 60 million pounds worth of fruit and veg rotted in the fields.

In total, vacancies across the economy hit record highs in 2022.

Naturally, this led to more work visas being issued across the economy.

But direct work visas only partly explain the increase in immigration.

For many routes, it was possible for workers and students to bring their dependents like children or spouses.

This contributed significantly to the overall figures.

For example, there were actually more dependent visas issued to health and care workers than there were main applicants in 2023.

Dependent visas were also granted for many students too.

On the whole, student and work-related visas and their dependents accounted for 70% of total immigration during this time.

But relaxing immigration rules wasn't all about economics.

humanitarian causes also arose.

Beijing's political crackdown in Hong Kong, a former British territory, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and of course Russia's invasion of Ukraine all created refugees fleeing persecution or war.

The UK government created pathways to help these people on a moral basis.

They were exceptional responses to exceptional events.

Lastly, there was a sharp increase in asylum seekers and irregular migration via small boat crossings of the English Channel from France.

Despite occupying a large portion of the political debate, this type of immigration only makes up around 15% of total immigration.

All these factors combined resulted in the highest level of UK net migration ever recorded in 2023, at 944,000.

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In total, 19% of the UK population is foreign-born, which, despite recent influxes, is actually a fairly average level when compared against other OECD countries.

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So no, Brexit didn't cause increased immigration in the UK.

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Brexit gave the UK government control of its own immigration policy, which it used to relax rules to address the financial strain of UK universities, emerging labour shortages and humanitarian crises.

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But this leaves us with a deeper question, because we now know that labour shortages led to more immigration.

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But why do these labour shortages exist in the first place?

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The word shortage makes it sound like Britain simply ran out of workers.

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Like one day the economy opened the cupboard, found nothing inside, and had to rush to order more labour on next day delivery.

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That's obviously an oversimplification.

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Britain has labour shortages, yes, But it also has millions of working age people outside the labour force

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and a growing number of young people not in employment, education or training.

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So, is immigration filling unavoidable shortages?

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Or is it a short-term fix that allows Britain to avoid fixing deeper allocative problems regarding skills, wages and productivity?

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First, let's make one thing clear.

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Immigration has brought real economic benefits to the UK economy.

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Immigrants increase the size of the labour force, reducing the dependency ratio.

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The dependency ratio measures how many people aren't working for every person who is working.

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It's roughly calculated by adding the total population of children and retirees, then dividing it by the working age population.

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The lower the value is, the more taxpayers there are to fund pensions, healthcare and other public services, which eases fiscal pressure.

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Since most immigrants are of working age, the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility, OBR, found that the average migrant is a net fiscal contributor to the UK economy,

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paying more tax than they cost through public services.

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This is why studies show that higher net migration actually leads to marginally less government borrowing and therefore lower national debt.

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Migration also increases consumption, and many high-skill entrepreneurs come specifically to the UK to access finance, higher talent and invest.

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As mentioned, international students support a large higher education sector and they increase labour market flexibility by filling in shortages.

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This all boosts GDP, but the overall impact is slightly blurrier.

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Because while immigration has increased UK GDP, studies show it doesn't seem to have increased the GDP per capita.

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Increased demand for housing, a sector with relatively inelastic supply, has helped to push up prices, especially in the rental market.

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Good for landlords, not so good for renters.

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And there is some evidence that low-skill migration reduces the incentive to invest in machinery and automation, negatively affecting productivity growth.

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Clearly it's a messy picture which requires nuance.

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But one of the areas where high immigration may be contributing to a growing issue in the UK is skills development.

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I say this because it's a massive problem in the UK right now.

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There are 1 million people between the ages of 16 and 24 who are not in education, employment or training, otherwise known as NEETs.

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This represents 12.8% of all people in this age group, which is a higher proportion than any country in the European Union except Romania.

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Clearly Britain has jobs that need doing and people who need opportunities, but the two are not connecting very well.

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And no, the point here isn't that immigrants are taking British jobs.

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that in a free labor market, businesses will hire who is best qualified, experienced and willing for the job.

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Which is fair enough.

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And workers from lower income economies are incentivized to migrate for a higher salary.

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This plentiful supply of experienced labor makes international recruitment easy and much quicker compared to large-scale domestic workforce planning.

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The result is that domestic spare capacity doesn't get developed and deployed.

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Not only does this lead to a lost generation of disillusioned youth, but it also leaves key sectors of the economy reliant on international labor.

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And reliance on international labor can be a problem because they are more likely to leave in a downturn or shock, as seen following Brexit and then again during the pandemic.

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It increases the vulnerability of key sectors, like healthcare for instance.

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As global demand for healthcare workers increases due to global economic growth and aging populations, international labor are coming across increasingly attractive alternatives that may pull them away from the UK.

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Workforce reliance on immigration is no secret.

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The UK's National Health Service, the country's largest single employer, itself acknowledges it is overly dependent on international migration to meet the country's demand for healthcare.

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Just look at this graph.

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The yellow line shows the proportion of vacancies in the UK that are due to skills shortages, and the blue line shows the number of work visas approved.

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When skills-based vacancies go up, more work visas are granted to fill the roles in the immediate year or two after.

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There's a strong lagging relationship.

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This helps maintain supply of key services in the short term, but it negates the long-term need to train, upskill, or reskill spare labour capacity in the workforce.

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It's like using painkillers to treat a medical condition.

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Paracetamol is great at stopping the immediate pain, but in the long term it's not addressing the root cause of the issue.

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And pretending it does can actually make things worse as it

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reduces the motivation to take substantive action to properly address the root problem.

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Now, this is not to say that if labor shortages stayed large

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and for long enough then all 1 million young NEETs would eventually be trained up and put in jobs.

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A lot of them face other challenges with mental health, long term sickness, disabilities and caring responsibilities.

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On top of that, AI is reducing the number of entry-level roles available.

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But a lack of opportunities for skills development

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and support for transitioning into work is certainly making the total figure of young needs higher than it should be.

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In a recent survey by the Chartered Institute for Professional Development,

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35% of employers who hire migrant workers found it difficult to find UK-born workers with adequate technical skills.

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And 29% said that migrants have technical skills and qualifications that are hard to find.

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But the issue isn't entirely about gaps in skills development.

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Working in the care sector, farming, hospitality and construction is no joke.

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They are often physically demanding, low paid, with irregular working patterns and limited progression.

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Employers often can't find domestic workers for such jobs.

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At least not at the current wage, conditions and career prospects offered.

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Again, this is where immigration becomes incredibly useful.

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Because the reality is, working age migrants often come from less developed countries with less opportunities, harsher labour standards and worse pay.

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In other words, they are more willing to put up with these relatively tough working conditions by UK standards

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because it's still far better than what they can find at home.

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Let's take someone from Kyrgyzstan, for example.

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He can earn about 294,744 some working in agriculture at home, which is 2,518 pounds a year at current exchange rates.

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Or he can fly to the UK, work his butt off on a farm for six months during the busy season, and earn a minimum of 15,862 pounds.

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Then he can return home with the equivalent of six years of local agricultural wages, live like a local king, and enjoy a well-earned half a year off without needing to work at all.

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It's a very crude example and this hypothetical gentleman will return home with less after paying for flights, their visa, rent, a smidgen of tax and other costs, but it's still a massive wage arbitrage.

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For many people from low income economies, these are opportunities that are too good to pass up.

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Their opportunity cost, that is the value of the next best alternative they're giving up, is low.

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But for UK citizens, it's often an entirely different perspective.

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Low skill, high physical effort jobs in hospitality, agriculture, care or construction pay relatively little.

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Social status of the job is minimal and they often lack clear paths for career progression.

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For many people, they simply aren't jobs worthy of pursuing.

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And if you're in a privileged enough socio-economic position, you don't have to.

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In UK construction, this is brutally obvious.

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The sector needs hundreds of thousands of extra workers, but despite the government increasing financial support for apprenticeships, uptake has still dropped 16%.

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The incentives simply aren't strong enough, and it's resulted in allocative inefficiency in the labour market.

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Most young people would rather stay unemployed

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and keep applying for jobs in more favourable sectors than take a funded apprenticeship in sectors that are desperate for workers.

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Either that, or go to university.

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Which still attracts the majority despite it costing tens of thousands of pounds in debt, despite there being a well-known oversupply of graduates,

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and despite there being declining lifetime income premiums for this route.

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In response to all this, the UK government has introduced a youth guarantee, increasing funding for apprenticeships, entry-level jobs, work placements and sector-specific training pipelines to move young needs into employment.

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But it remains to be seen whether this meets the scale of the challenge.

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The UK's NEAT problem feeds into a larger subject, the subject of UK economic decline.

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According to Google search analytics, searches on this topic have exploded in the past 12 months.

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There are genuine reasons to support this notion.

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You ready?

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Economic stagnation, chronically low productivity growth, fiscally constrained public finances, local councils on the brink of bankruptcy, notoriously high energy prices, underperforming utility services,

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delayed and over budget infrastructure projects, high taxes, rising rates of theft, unprecedented political turnover in Downing Street,

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and a frustratingly complex system of compliance and regulation are all touted as signs that the UK has, to put it lightly, left much to be desired.

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But out of all these concerns, the reports that wealthy and high income individuals are leaving in droves may be the most potent

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and revealing feature on the current state of affairs in the UK.

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So what are the potential dangers of this?

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Well one of the obvious concerns is the effect it has on the tax base.

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In the UK, the top 1% of income taxpayers account for 28% of all income tax.

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If a large portion of these people leave, then so does an even larger chunk of current and future tax revenue, putting additional strain on a fiscal system that is already unable to cover its spending levels.

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If the people leaving are mostly passive asset holders, the impact may be limited.

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But if they are founders, serial entrepreneurs and investors, then the loss is not just tax revenue.

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This group drives business creation, capital deployment, employment opportunities, innovation, and the multiplier effect these things have across the wider economy.

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Now, it's worth noting that it's much easier said than done for an individual to simply uproot themselves and leave a country.

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People have families, social networks, emotional connections, physical assets, and non-mobile business structure also influence decision-making.

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But when the low-tax non-domicile regime was abolished, inheritance tax was extended to worldwide assets, and taxes on investment income were increased,

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the UK clearly became less attractive to internationally mobile wealth.

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Following these changes, New World Wealth forecasted that the UK was projected to lose around 16,500 millionaires in 2025,

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taking an estimated $91.8 billion in investable wealth with them.

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Following this, news of a millionaire exodus from the UK spread like wildfire, and the narrative still runs strong based on these forecasts to this day.

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The issue is that these statistics are dubious, if not misleading.

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The figures have faced serious criticism for inaccuracy due to a weak methodological

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and a vested interest from the source organization who profit from assisting wealthy families migrate.

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There's also academic evidence that high earners are less responsive to tax changes than headlines often suggest.

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While some wealthy individuals are undoubtedly leaving the UK, the emigration of UK millionaires is likely a much smaller matter than the mass exodus event often referenced.

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The difficulty is knowing just how many are leaving, and whether this is actually having a significant impact on the economy at large at large.

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One way to gauge that is to look at whether the UK continues to harbor entrepreneurs and investment.

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On this we know that the UK

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and London in particular continues to lead globally when it comes to tech startups and venture capital.

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London has the fourth largest tech ecosystem in the world.

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This naturally attracts entrepreneurs and high skill workers

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and its position as a leader in this space has only grown in recent years despite the recent tax changes we mentioned.

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54 of the 100 fastest growing companies in the UK have foreign-born founders

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and the city continues to have plentiful access to venture capital and other sources of investment.

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If there really was an exodus of wealth, then London's tech ecosystem would not be prospering in the way it is today.

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However, there is a more tangible change in migration patterns that we know will matter economically for the UK.

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We already covered the surge of net migration around 2023.

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But since then, restrictive government policy reforms have been introduced, resulting in a huge collapse in immigration.

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Net migration has fallen from 944,000 in 2023 to 171,000 in 2025.

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Demographers and economists are expecting net migration to go to zero

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or even negative over the next couple of years This fall

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is forecasted to have a negative impact on the economy Recent modelling predicts

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that net zero migration in the UK from now to 2030 Would result in an economy

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that is 3.6% smaller by 2040 A pretty modest figure, but not insignificant So, what does all this tell us?

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Clearly, Britain has become somewhat dependent on immigration as a shock absorber It keeps universities funded, farms staffed and hospitals running while an unstable,

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increasingly polarized government moles over harder reforms to training, wages, housing and productivity.

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Meanwhile, the millionaire exodus appears far more dramatic in headlines than in the available economic data.

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Tax competitiveness still matters and wealthy people are leaving the UK, but not to the extent illustrated in online media sources.

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And recent cuts to net migration may eventually create stronger need for the government

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and businesses to train more workers and improve incentives for currently unattractive jobs.

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But those reforms take years, while the workers, tuition fees and tax revenues disappear immediately.

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The political temptation will be to relax work and study visa rules once again to address those labour shortages.

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But if that happens without tackling the underlying structural problems, the country could find itself right back in the same position.

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In this video we covered the rise of young people not in education, employment or training in the UK.

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While the issue is particularly bad for the UK, it's actually happening across much of the developed world.

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We recently explored why.

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You should be able to click into that video on your screen now.

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Thanks for watching mate.

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Bye.

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이 레슨의 어휘와 말하기 포인트

이 C1 수준 말하기 레슨은 영상 “The End Game of U.K Economics”을(를) 바탕으로 합니다. 가장 자주 반복되는 단어는 다음과 같습니다: immigration, migration, labour, workers, shortage. 이 영상에는 섀도잉할 문장 256개와 단어 3923개가 있습니다. 말하는 구간의 길이는 20:35입니다. 화자는 분당 약 191단어로 빠르게 말하므로 연음과 약하게 발음되는 소리가 많습니다. 영어에서 가장 많이 쓰이는 3,000단어에 속하는 단어가 81%뿐이라 어휘가 어려운 편입니다.

이 영상의 핵심 어휘

영상에서 가장 어려운 단어 15개를 발음, 뜻과 함께 정리했습니다.

단어	발음	뜻
shortage 명사	/ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/	부족, 흠손
entrepreneur 명사	/ˌɑn.tɹə.pɹəˈnɝ/	기업가, 기업인
vacancy 명사	/ˈveɪkənsi/	결원
exodus 명사	/ˈɛksədəs/	탈출, 이동
millionaire 명사	/ˌmɪl.i.əˈnɛə(ɹ)/	백만장자
migrant 명사	/ˈmaɪɡɹənt/	이민
humanitarian 형용사	/hjuˌmæ.nəˈtɛ.ɹi.ən/	박애의, 인도주의
workforce 명사	/ˈwɝk.foɹs/	노동력, 로동력
headline 명사	/ˈhɛd.laɪn/	표제, 헤드라인
immigrant 명사	/ˈɪmɪɡɹənt/	이민, 이민자
emigration 명사		이민, 이주
chunk 명사	/t͡ʃʌŋk/	조각
ecosystem 명사	/ˈikoʊˌsɪstəm/	생태계
sickness 명사	/ˈsɪknɪs/	질병
taxpayer 명사	/ˈtakspeɪə/	납세자

영상에 나오는 구동사

단어	뜻
give up 동사	항복하다
go up 동사	올라가다

이 영상의 문법

화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.

문형	영상 속 표현
현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때	has risen · has surged · has it rapidly increased
수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점	be emotionally charged · was meant · has been driven
관계절 who / which + 절 — 사람이나 사물에 대한 추가 정보	people who aren · person who is · group, which is

주의할 발음

화자는 aren't, doesn't, isn't 같은 축약형과 약화된 형태를 17번 사용합니다. 들리는 대로 짧게 발음하세요.

“sh”와 “zh” 소리: shortage /ˈʃɔː(ɹ)tɪd͡ʒ/, apprenticeship /əˈpɹɛn.tɪs.ʃɪp/, progression /pɹəˈɡɹɛʃən/, tuition /tjuːˈɪʃən/, exceptional /ɪkˈsɛpʃənəl/
긴 단어 — 강세 위치에 주의: entrepreneur /ˌɑn.tɹə.pɹəˈnɝ/, millionaire /ˌmɪl.i.əˈnɛə(ɹ)/, humanitarian /hjuˌmæ.nəˈtɛ.ɹi.ən/, apprenticeship /əˈpɹɛn.tɪs.ʃɪp/, dependency /dɪˈpɛndənsi/

한국어 화자가 어려워하는 소리:

/f/ — ㅍ(/p/)으로 바꾸지 말고 윗니를 아랫입술에 대기: workforce /ˈwɝk.foɹs/, plentiful /ˈplɛntɪfl̩/, referendum /ˌɹɛfəˈɹɛndəm/, forecast /ˈfɔːkɑːst/
/v/ — ㅂ(/b/)과 구별하기: vacancy /ˈveɪkənsi/, incentive /ɪnˈsɛntɪv/, investor /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/
/r/과 /l/ 구별하기: millionaire /ˌmɪl.i.əˈnɛə(ɹ)/, irregular /ɪˈɹɛɡ.jə.lɚ/, reliance /ɹɪˈlaɪ.əns/, illustrate /ˈɪl.əˌstɹeɪt/

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먼저 말하지 않고 영상을 끝까지 듣고 모르는 단어를 적어 둡니다.
0.75배속으로 한 문장씩 섀도잉을 시작하고, 익숙해지면 보통 속도로 돌아갑니다.
자신의 목소리를 녹음해 원본과 비교하고, shortage, entrepreneur, vacancy 같은 단어에 특히 주의합니다.

쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법

쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.

섀도잉 방법: 단계별 전체 가이드 읽기 →

쉐도잉 연습: The End Game of U.K Economics - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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