쉐도잉 연습: The New American Housing Crisis Has Landed - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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Last month, there were 58 % more people trying to sell a house in America than there were people trying to buy one.

That's the largest gap Redfin has seen since it started tracking this in 2013.

By their measure, it's the strongest buyer's market on record.

So you'd think that means home prices are falling.

When sellers outnumber buyers in a market, prices are supposed to come down.

Except they haven't.

Last month, the typical American home sold for about $429 ,000.

That's the 38th month in a row that prices were higher than the year before.

We're seeing more than three sellers for every two buyers, and the price is still going up.

All the easy explanations people usually reach for don't work here.

Earlier this year, investor buying fell to its lowest level since 2020.

And it's not just that there aren't enough homes.

That's why prices are high.

It doesn't explain why they won't come down in a month

when the homes for sale outnumber the people trying to buy them.

It's also not that borrowing is cheap.

Mortgage rates just hit 7%.

Higher rates are supposed to be bringing prices down.

What's actually happening is much deeper, it's a structural problem, and it's now built into how the housing market works.

But to understand how we got here, you have to start with the people who already own a home.

According to the latest data from the US Census Bureau, 4 in 10 homeowners don't have a mortgage, which means no monthly debt payment, no bank to answer to,

and no reason to sell their house unless they decide they want to.

While the homeowners who do have a mortgage are stuck in what's called a rate lock.

In my last video, I explained what this is.

If you didn't see that, it's where homeowners with a mortgage are sitting on an interest rate far below today's rates, so they don't want to move.

The buyers from 2021 are locked in at rates around 3%.

Selling means handing that cheap debt back and taking on expensive debt at today's prices.

So homeowners are doing the only thing that makes financial sense, which is doing nothing.

The agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government -backed companies standing behind $6 .6 trillion of American home loans, measured it.

They found that for every point today's rate sits above the rate an owner already has, the odds they sell fall by about 18%.

Between spring 2022 and the end of 2023, they estimate that wiped out 1 .7 million home sales that would otherwise have happened,

which caused rising interest rates to have an opposite effect on housing.

We saw higher rates decrease prices by a little over 3%.

But the results from the supply reduction and the sellers who vanished pushed home prices up by nearly 6%.

So by the agency's own measure, the rate -lock effect did more than offset the rate increase.

The tool built to cool prices took the sellers out of the market instead and caused prices to rise.

And if a home won't sell, we're seeing homeowners just pull the listing and wait.

45 ,000 homes that were pulled off the market last year came back in January alone, the most for any January in Redfin's records.

It's the real estate version of deleting Hinge, then re -downloading it a few months later because you convinced yourself that, this time, it'll be different.

But I know what some of you may be thinking right now, prices are falling in some places.

Just look at Austin.

It's about 27 % below its 2022 peak, but it's not because of extreme price cuts across the city.

Austin added 30 % to its housing supply in about a decade.

The rest of the country added about 9%.

So what happened is a flood of brand new homes hit the market, supply demand shifted, and the prices fell.

Now look at Hartford, Connecticut, nobody's idea of a boomtown.

There's no massive building wave happening in Connecticut.

But Zillow calls it the hottest housing market in the country this year, and Hartford's prices are up more than 20 % above the 2022 peak.

But that's because the supply of homes is constrained.

It's the same country with the same interest rates, but opposite results.

Where supply exploded, prices fell.

Where it didn't, prices kept climbing.

And the supply that moves prices doesn't come from the people who already own homes.

It comes from the one seller who can't afford to wait, the builder.

A homeowner can sit on a cheap mortgage for years.

A builder can't.

A builder has no 3 % loan to protect.

Its construction loans run close to 12%, and the whole business depends on selling this house to fund the next one.

So when buyers in the market pull back, builders don't delist and wait.

They're forced to cut prices.

And right now, they're sitting on the most finished, unsold new homes since 2009.

This month, 38 % of builders cut prices, and two -thirds offered incentives just to close deals.

So builders have to do something that regular homeowners aren't.

They have to cut prices.

Lennar is the second largest home builder in the country.

They reported earnings on September 16th, which is funny enough, the same day the Fed raised rates.

Lennar's profit per share was also nearly cut in half from a year ago.

On their earnings call, the CEO,

Stuart Miller, said it out loud, Then he explained why.

Every home we close retires a home site that was priced for a market that no longer exists.

Lennar bought much of their land when prices and profit margins were much more favorable.

The only way to get rid of it is to build on it and sell at today's prices, whatever those turn out to be.

And it's not just Lennar.

Like I said, two -thirds of builders are offering incentives.

The biggest one is the rate buy -down.

More than 70 % of builder mortgage originations now carry some form of a rate buy -down.

D .R.

Horton, the largest builder in the country, had buyers in its pipeline at 4 .9 % this summer, while the market rate was around 6 .5%,

which is how we end up in a situation that shouldn't be happening.

In the second quarter, the typical new home sold for about $25 ,000 less than the typical existing home, which means the brand new house is now cheaper than the used one.

It's the widest gap the Home Builders Association has ever measured.

It's like walking onto a car lot

and finding the new model of your favorite car costs less than the one with 90 ,000 miles on it.

Part of that is builders shrinking the product.

Builders are adapting to affordability challenges, and the starter home is being rebuilt on smaller lots in smaller homes

and being moved from dense population areas that are more expensive to less expensive, smaller metro areas.

But even that has a limit, because the thing standing between a builder and a sale isn't always the price.

Sometimes it's the loan.

In that same earnings call, the Lennar CEO said, Fewer families can afford to produce a down payment and qualify for a mortgage, as in many of our markets,

almost 50 % of our visitors cannot immediately qualify.

In many of Lennar's markets, about half the people walking into the sales office can't qualify for a mortgage, even with all those incentives on the table.

A price cut can't fix that, knock another $10 ,000 off the house, and the buyer who can't qualify still can't qualify by.

And when price cuts stop bringing in buyers, builders stop cutting.

While they still have to sell the homes they've already built, they no longer have to keep building the next ones.

D .R.

Horton CEO Paul Romanowski said, We did make the decision to hold margin a little more than push into the units.

The translation here, he'd rather sell fewer houses than cut prices any further.

So the one seller that has to sell is already cutting, and the biggest of them is starting to hit its limit.

At the same time, fewer households qualify to borrow money to purchase a home.

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And when Americans can't borrow enough, who steps in?

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Who do you call when you need more debt?

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The United States government.

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But before I get into that, let's take a quick pause.

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Instead, what I found was biased coverage, missing context, and no clear understanding of what I'd just read.

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Thank you to Ground News for sponsoring this video.

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Now back to how the government stepped into the housing market.

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Government housing policy tends to do one of two things.

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It either adds buyers, or it keeps owners in place.

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The government rarely actually implements policy to add to the supply of homes on the market.

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On January 8th, the president directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of mortgage bonds.

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Mortgage rates are priced off those bonds, so a buyer that size pushes the rate down.

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The Truth Social Post announcing it said, buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

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This will drive mortgage rates down.

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And for a while, it worked.

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By late February, the 30 -year mortgage dipped under 6 % for the first time in three and a half years.

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But it didn't last.

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Rates drifted back up through the summer, and last week, the Fed hiked the policy rate.

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Now, mortgage rates are sitting around 7%.

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It was a temporary solution to a structural problem, and it wasn't the first attempt.

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Last November, Trump posted an image of Franklin Roosevelt whose administration introduced the 30 -year mortgage in the United States, next to himself labeled 50 -year mortgage.

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By January, when the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency was asked about it, he said, I think we have other priorities.

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Then in mid -January, the White House floated the idea of letting first -time buyers pull money from their 401k

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and their kids' college fund for a down payment.

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That one lasted about a week.

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The problem is, each of these solutions is targeted at the demand side, and we've run this experiment before.

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In 2015, the Federal Housing Administration, the agency that insures mortgages for buyers who can't put much down, cut the insurance premium those buyers pay.

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For the typical first -time homebuyer, that was about a $900 reduction in their annual mortgage payment.

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It was supposed to bring in 250 ,000 new first -time buyers over three years.

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Researchers went back and counted.

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In the first year, the cut created about 17 ,000 new first -time buyers, which was an increase that fell far short of the Federal Housing Administration's projection.

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What it did do was give the typical FHA buyer about 6 % more buying power, and they used it.

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FHA buyers paid about 2 .5 % more for their homes, not paying more for a bigger home or a better one, for the same homes at higher prices.

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And those higher prices didn't stop with the FHA buyers.

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They hid everyone buying in those neighborhoods, including first -time buyers, who never got the discount.

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The researchers added it up.

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Roughly 500 ,000 of those buyers paid about $6 ,200 extra per home.

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That's $3 .1 billion in extra costs.

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$3 .1 billion to create about 17 ,000 new homeowners.

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That's a trade so bad, it can only be compared to the time we traded Brittany Griner for the Russian arms dealer.

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That's what happens when you hand buyers money without fixing the root problem.

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When supply doesn't move, the money has exactly one place to go, into the seller's pockets.

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That's the buyer's part of the story.

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It's the loud part.

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The other part is quieter, because it's built into the tax code.

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More than a dozen states cap how fast a home's taxable value can rise each year.

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The idea is to keep property tax bills from skyrocketing on people who already own.

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But according to the Lincoln Institute, these caps create dramatic tax bill discrepancies between new and long -time owners.

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It's great if you own a home, not so great if you don't own one yet.

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They found the cleanest example of this discrepancy in Coconut Grove, Miami, with two townhouses a few doors apart in the same complex.

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One owner pays around $4 ,000 a year in property tax.

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The other pays more than $14 ,000.

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The only difference is when they bought, one in 2006, the other in 2023.

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That's because in Florida, like most states with a cap, the assessment resets when the house sells.

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So the longer you stay, the bigger your discount gets which makes people stay longer, and whoever buys next starts over at full price.

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So what we have is the typical homeowner has every reason not to sell, the builders are getting squeezed, and the government's help ends up in the seller's pocket.

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Which is how first -time buyers fell to just 21 % of home purchases, the lowest share since the Realtors Association started counting in 1980,

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and the typical first -time buyer is now 40 years old.

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By Redfin's analysis, the typical household would have to spend 38 % of its income home just on the mortgage for the typical home.

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Since 2012, that share has doubled.

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The usual rule of thumb is don't spend more than 30%.

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Past that, you're considered house -poor.

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So who's still getting in?

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It's not the people who save their money for years, cut back on spending, or make the other common sacrifices to try and purchase a home.

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Nearly 40 % of first -time homebuyers under the age of 30 used either a cash gift from family members

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or inheritance for their down payment.

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The Federal Reserve even published a working paper on this last year, and I'm not making this up.

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The title is, Illiquid Homeownership and the Bank of Mom and Dad.

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That's a real paper published by the Federal Reserve.

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Its author estimates that help from parents accounts for about 27 % of young households' home ownership.

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Roughly one in four young owners is there because a parent helped.

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So what decides who gets in isn't who needs it most.

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It's who has rich parents.

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Parents who give their kids money are 2 .5 times as wealthy as parents who don't.

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And in a market where the real constraint is supply, we already saw what easier borrowing does with the FHA cut.

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It doesn't lower the price.

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It raises it.

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And a higher price means a bigger down payment, because the down payment is a percentage of the price.

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So a policy meant to get first -time buyers through the door makes the one part they can't borrow even bigger.

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And the buyers most likely to cover it are the ones with a parent who can write the check.

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And for the buyers who get into the market, without the help of rich parents, they typically lean on low -down payment, government -backed loans, like an FHA or VA.

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And right now, more than 1 in 10 FHA loans are behind on payments.

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For conventional loans, the kind the government doesn't back, it's fewer than 3 in 100.

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About 813 ,000 borrowers now have negative equity in their home, meaning they owe more than their house is worth.

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That's up 44 % in a year.

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75 % of them used an FHA or VA loan, and most bought between 2022 and 2025.

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These are the people who used the loans with the smallest down payments, bought at near -record prices, and now they're the ones falling behind.

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These are the borrowers who didn't have a parent to help write the check.

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When you take away parental help, the Fed's paper found that young home ownership drops 13 percentage points.

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For comparison, the 2008 financial crisis, the one that almost destroyed the entire world, knocked it down by about eight.

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What we've built is a system that protects the people already inside it and hands the bill to whoever's next in line.

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And the only people who get to skip that bill are the ones whose rich daddy can cover it instead.

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이 클립이 좋은 말하기 연습 자료인 이유

이 비디오는 미국 주택 시장에 관한 분석을 담고 있어, 일상적인 대화보다는 논리적이고 구조화된 발화를 연습할 수 있는 좋은 기회입니다. 특히 shadowspeak이나 shadow speak와 같은 쉐도잉 연습에 적합한데, 이유는 명확한 주제와 일관된 흐름, 다양한 문장 구조가 포함되어 있기 때문입니다. 발음 뿐만 아니라 논리적 표현을 익히고 싶은 학습자에게 매우 유용합니다.

자연스러운 표현 분석

"Selling means handing that cheap debt back and taking on expensive debt at today's prices." : "means" 뒤에 동명사 구문을 사용해 행위의 결과를 명확히 전달합니다. "handing back"과 "taking on"의 대조구조가 자연스럽고 강력한 표현을 만듭니다.
"The tool built to cool prices took the sellers out of the market instead and caused prices to rise." : "built to cool prices"라는 과거분사 구문이 명사를 수식해 문장을 간결하게 만듭니다. "instead"와 "and"로 연결된 결과가 논리적인 흐름을 자연스럽게 전달합니다.
"It's the real estate version of deleting Hinge, then re-downloading it a few months later." : 일상적인 예(힌지 앱)를 사용해 복잡한 개념을 쉽게 설명합니다. "version of" 구문은 비유를 명확히 전달하는 데 효과적입니다.

쉐도잉 연습 루틴

쉐도잉 연습을 하기 위해선 shadowing site를 활용하거나 직접 녹음기를 사용할 수 있습니다. 다음과 같은 단계로 진행해 보세요: 1. 비디오를 5초씩 재생하고 즉시 따라합니다. 2. 녹음한 자신의 발화를 원본과 비교해 영어 발음 교정을 합니다. 3. 특히 강조된 부분(예: "rate lock effect")의 억양과 리듬을 주의깊게 살펴봅니다. 4. 하루에 10분씩 1주일간 반복하면 자연스러운 발화 습관을 형성할 수 있습니다. shadowspeaks와 같은 방법을 통해 지속적으로 연습하면 발음 뿐만 아니라 듣기 능력도 함께 향상됩니다.

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화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.

문형	영상 속 표현
수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점	are locked · were pulled · is constrained
관계절 who / which + 절 — 사람이나 사물에 대한 추가 정보	people who already · mortgage, which means · sense, which is
현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때	has seen · have happened · has ever measured

쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법

쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.

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쉐도잉 연습: The New American Housing Crisis Has Landed - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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쉐도잉 연습 루틴

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쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법