쉐도잉 연습: Untangling Signals of Market Stress - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기
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This is The Markets.
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This is The Markets.
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I'm Chris Hussey and today is Thursday, March 12th, and I'm here in the Goldman Sachs trading floor with John Flood,
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who is head of America's Equities Execution Services within Global Banking and Markets.
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Flood, thanks so much for joining us.
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Thank you for having me.
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OK, John, believe it or not, it's been a year since I last had you on the show.
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It was right around Liberation Day, a lot of volatility back then.
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Compare today's market to what we were in a year ago.
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I would say right now we're in a period of extreme uncertainty, more so than we were a year ago.
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And frankly, there's a lot of focus on what is control, what we can control and what we can't control.
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So right now, during this geopolitical uncertainty, it's is there going to be an off ramp to this conflict?
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And that is a very confusing question to come up with a firm answer to.
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It's a great point.
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Trying to answer the questions, it's not an economics math problem at all.
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It's a geopolitical problem.
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All right, John, you get to look across institutional investors all day long.
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You get a sense of how they're positioned in a market like today.
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This week, we saw the VIX spike to 30.
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We saw oil going back up towards $100 a barrel.
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How are institutional investors positioned today?
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People are on edge.
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So as of right now, let's start with hedge funds, who are our most active traders from the institutional community.
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they have held on to their single stock longs because there's still high conviction in your core ideas.
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But due to the macro uncertainty, we're seeing an extreme amount of hedging.
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And what that means is we're seeing a lot of shorting of macro products, futures, ETFs, custom baskets.
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So there is a there's a thought that, OK, we're bracing for more of this headline risk.
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I don't want to give up on the names that I've held for a long time that I think are alpha generating.
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But I need to make sure I'm fully hedged up.
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Makes sense.
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I want to get to that hedging thing a little bit more.
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But first I want to ask you about liquidity
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because sometimes in these crises you see a liquidity squeeze that makes it just hard for people to trade.
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Have we seen anything on the liquidity front?
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Absolutely.
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Liquidity is terrible right now.
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And a lot of times people confuse market volumes and liquidity.
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Right now market volumes are explosive.
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If you look at total shares that are trading across all U.S equity exchanges it's 21 billion shares.
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Last year 18 billion billion shares traded a day.
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That was a record.
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For comparison back in 2020 it was 11 billion shares a day.
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So with this retail engagement in the market you're seeing market volumes increase year over year And frankly, right now, they've never been higher.
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On the other side of the equation, liquidity is really poor.
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How do we measure that at Goldman Sachs?
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S&P top of book depth.
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What is that in English?
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Bottom line, it's S&P 500 futures.
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There's a price that you can see on the screens.
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How much notional can I buy or sell at the price that is seen on the screens?
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Historical average is around $14 to $15 million.
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Right now, today, we're at $3.8 million.
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So as you are trying to have institutions move in or out of sizable positions,
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you're having a lot more impact than you would on a typical liquid day.
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And you're also sort of suggesting that it's a little bit harder to hedge with futures, and so that's kind of tricky.
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You mentioned ETFs in the prior question, too.
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Talk to me about how customers are using ETFs here, and has that become a bigger part of the market?
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It's become a much bigger part of the market.
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And like we said, we're seeing hedge funds short a lot of ETFs to hedge against macro risk.
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But a standard that we use is of the shares that I just talked about trading 20, 21 billion shares a day.
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What percentage is directly tied to an ETF in a healthy market?
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It's typically 30, 31, 32 percent.
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Right now we're north of 40 percent.
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This makes sense because people are reaching for these macro products to hedge against their fears in the market.
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So an important signal for us to see this tape, this market being more healthy.
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It's OK.
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S&P top of book liquidity will trend higher.
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It's below four million dollars.
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Let's see it move towards 10, which is still significantly below historical average.
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But below seven million dollars is a real signal of stress.
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And let's watch ETF representation of total tape trend back towards 30 percent north of 40.
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Another signal of stress in the market.
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And in the meantime, though, is there enough ETFs to be had?
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I mean, can these guys get the liquidity in the ETFs?
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Absolutely.
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Believe it or not, right now, there's actually more listed ETFs than listed stocks.
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There's 5000 listed ETFs versus around 4000 listed stocks.
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So there are plenty to choose from, but it's clearly, you know, most institutional investors aggregate towards the most liquid, you know.
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Right.
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That's a fascinating stat.
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There's more ETFs than there are liquid stocks, but every ETF is made up of stocks.
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Correct.
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That's exactly right.
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We'll figure that calculus out at one point.
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All right.
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Let's talk a little bit about themes, because, you know, prior to February 28th, we were playing a couple of pretty interesting themes.
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There was a rotation taking place in the market.
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There was this halo theme, hard assets, low obsolescence, over the AI theme.
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But now you've got oil up the wazoo and all this other stuff.
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What are the themes that people are leaning into?
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The themes that are most present right now is, you know, exposure in Asia, specifically Korea and Taiwan.
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Do they want it or not want it?
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They want it.
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These trades have been working again there's a big retail footprint in both these markets
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but Korea and Taiwan have been excellent trades and the hedge fund community
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and institutional investors are long these regions right now during this unrest we've seen a pullback
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so you've had a drawdown in the momentum factor Korea Taiwan
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viewed as high momentum you know high momentum areas of the
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market the momentum factor is pulled back what is this trade easiest expressed it's long semis versus short software, that's the AI trade.
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So it's Korea, it's Taiwan, it's momentum, it's long semis versus short software.
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You've seen all of those trades.
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Those are the most concentrated, highly crowded thematics in the market come under real stress since the conflict started a couple weeks ago.
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But if I strip down to the fundamentals, the AI trade also seems to be the most insulated from the problems of the geopolitical front.
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Like, you know, higher oil prices.
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What is an AI care?
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Unfortunately, it's becoming entangled with momentum factor.
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So you're right.
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Stepping back, they shouldn't be, you know, tied.
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But because factors underneath the surface of the market do drive a lot of trading behavior, they've become entangled.
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Does this also suggest that investors are looking to come back home and invest more in the U.S instead of ex-U.S.?
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During this two week period of, you know, political unrest, we have seen assets gravitate back towards the U.S.
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And the thesis is that U.S is energy independent
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and there's concerns around Europe's reliance on LNG specifically from Qatar and on Asia's reliance on oil from the Middle East.
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So yes we are seeing assets flow back into the U.S. If
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when we do get some more clarity on a resolution being
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around the corner I would expect to see those assets
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that were just moved back here as a parking place in the U.S back into Asia and Europe.
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What's the trade today then?
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The trade today like what we talked about is we're trying to stay present in the moment
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and historically you are supposed to buy dips in U.S equities that are caused by geopolitical unrest.
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If we look at the positioning dynamics
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that we just said in terms of there being a whole lot of short exposure in macro products, I am confident that when we do get a headline that progress is being made,
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that you'll have a lot of those short positions taken off.
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What does that mean?
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A lot of buying in macro products and in illiquid tape, likely more risk to the upside than the downside, even though that doesn't feel very natural at this moment.
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ROBERT COSTA, The last on these is the catalyst ahead.
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Is there anything that matters other than those announcements around the geopolitical risk?
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We saw CPI this week.
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It seems like nobody cared.
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PEOPLE CARE ABOUT JOBS DATA.
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We had a negative jobs print last reading.
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We think it was a relative one-off due to weather
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and strikes and some other technicals we can get into at another time.
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But bottom line, we have to watch jobs very closely
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because we think that the retail community the community stops buying stocks when there's job loss.
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So hopefully negative jobs print was a one-off.
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If you start to see two, three, four consecutive poor jobs prints, you could potentially see that retail bid, which has been so consistent, wobble.
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That would make us uncomfortable.
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Great point.
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All right, let's cut to the question that everybody's been waiting for.
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You are the FOGO.
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Harvard's undefeated, unbelievable in La Crosse right now.
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Can Harvard go undefeated for the whole year?
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Absolutely.
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They're going to take down Penn this weekend.
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much for joining us here.
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That does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Chris Hussey.
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Thanks for listening.
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and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.
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and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
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주요 어휘 및 구문
- Market stress - 시장의 불안정성
- Institutional investors - 기관 투자자
- Liquidity - 유동성
- Volatility - 변동성
- Hedging - 헤징 (위험 회피 전략)
- Equities - 주식
- Shorting - 공매도
- Futures - 선물 거래
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