쉐도잉 연습: WTF Is Happening To Gold?! - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기
레슨 만드는 중...
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Look at this chart.
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Gold is going straight up, and not in a healthy, normal, markets -doing -market -things kind of way.
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But in a "someone chugged a 4 Loco and listened to a David Goggins podcast at 3am" kind of way, Because here's the thing: over the last 40 years,
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gold has averaged about a 6 .5 % annual return.
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Cute, respectable, a slow and steady asset class.
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But over the last 5 years?
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Well, gold has been averaging nearly 20 % per year.
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So clearly, there's something happening that should not be happening in a normal functioning world, which means one of two things: either a we're not living in a normal functioning world,
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or b I am dramatically underestimating the emotional connection humans have to be a normal functioning world with shiny rocks.
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Either way, gold is probably hitting another all -time high as I record this video.
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But don't worry, it gets even weirder.
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And that's because nobody can actually agree on why this is happening.
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Not a traitor.
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Not an economist.
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Not an analyst.
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And not even
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that one guy on Reddit who spends eight hours a day ranting about how "the future is precious metals
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and canned beans." Because it seems like everyone has a theory, but nobody has an answer.
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But before I keep going, this is a perfect moment to say this video is sponsored by Notion.
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And I don't mean that in a "they paid me to awkwardly interrupt my video" kind of way.
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I mean, this video was actually built inside Notion.
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Because normally when I'm doing research for my videos, I have macro reports, spreadsheets, and enough tabs open to make my laptop sound like it's preparing for liftoff.
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But, that's where Notion Agent comes in.
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Because now, instead of doing all the heavy lifting myself, I have the Notion Agent to help me.
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Here you can see I've asked the Notion Agent to provide a 2026 outlook on the gold industry, and a table showing the total gold held by various central banks.
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And with one click, the Notion Agent gets to work and handles everything for you.
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And the best part: if I want to add more data, like the gold holdings, as a percentage of total reserves, the Notion Agent allows you to dynamically update as you go.
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everything now is able to live in one clean, easy -to -use Notion workspace.
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This has helped me streamline my workflow from start to finish, and the tasks that used to take all day can now be completed with a couple clicks.
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I'll leave a link below if you want to check it out.
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And now back to the shiny rock that's making everyone uncomfortable.
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Because there is one thing that's clear with gold right now, and it's that something big is happening underneath the surface.
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Because what's supposed to be a boring asset class is now putting up Wilt Chamberlain numbers.
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And today we're going to figure out what that something actually is.
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So let's start with debunking the explanation everyone thinks is the obvious: inflation.
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And okay, sure, inflation sucks.
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Because rent went up, groceries went up, even fast food prices went up so much you'd think Ronald McDonald was hired by a private equity firm.
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But here's the thing: Gold isn't rising because of inflation, at least not in the way most people think.
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Because if it was just strictly reacting to inflation pressures, gold would have exploded back in 2021
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when the CPI was doing its best impression of a meme coin after an Elon tweet.
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And it didn't.
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In fact, it barely moved.
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Because only recently has gold started to gain momentum.
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So yes, inflation is a part of the story, but it alone isn't the answer to what's happening.
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Which means something else is happening underneath the surface.
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And that something is a lot scarier.
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It's that foreign countries are quietly losing faith in the US dollar.
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And when I say quietly, I mean the same way someone quietly deletes all their couple photos on Instagram before announcing a breakup.
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Because the signs were always there, people just pretended not to see them.
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Because for 80 years, the US dollar has been the global reserve currency,
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which means it's the currency that central banks will hold in large quantities in their reserves to facilitate international trade, and reduce exchange rate risk.
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But recently, central banks across the globe are showing signs of change.
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But they aren't just dumping the dollar.
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That would be too obvious, and too likely to trigger a global panic attack.
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What the central banks are actually doing is far sneakier.
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They're calling it "diversifying away from the dollar." Not dumping.
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Diversifying.
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Slowly and strategically like they're trying to tiptoe out of a room without waking the sleeping dragon.
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Because 20 years ago, central banks held over 70 % of their foreign exchange reserves in the US dollar. But today?
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Well, the share is down to 58%.
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That's a 12 point drop.
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Which may not sound like much.
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But when we're talking about central banks across the globe, well, that's trillions of dollars.
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It's basically central banks saying, we still like you, but we're also exploring our other options.
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And those other options are not going to be a big deal options aren't the Euro, they aren't the Yen, and they aren't the Pound.
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It's gold.
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Gold is the side piece, the monetary prenup, the "just in case things go south" safety plan, And central banks are piling into it at a record -setting pace.
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Because for the third year in a row, central banks have bought over 1 ,000 tons of gold per year, which is more than double their previous decade average of 400 to 500 tons annually.
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In fact, 2024 actually marks the highest gold -buying year in history.
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And this buying power isn't showing signs of slowing, because over 40 % of central banks have said they plan to buy even more gold over the next decade,
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while 95 % of central banks expect gold holdings to be a new year to continue rising over the next 12 months.
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It's safe to say, this isn't a fad.
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This is institutional anxiety.
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It's central banks across the world starting to get nervous about U .S debt levels, long -term inflation risks, and being over -reliant on the U .S financial system. And gold?
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Well, it's the asset they can move into when their trust is fading, but they don't want to start a fight.
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But don't get me wrong.
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The U .S dollar isn't going anywhere overnight.
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It's still deep -rooted into the global financial system.
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living in his mom's basement because the dollar is still the dominant currency globally.
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However, we are seeing central banks shift from blind faith in the dollar to conditional trust.
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And that raises alarm bells, because gold doesn't rise when people are optimistic.
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In fact, when trust is high, gold is boring.
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When markets feel stable, gold goes nowhere.
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And when institutions feel safe, gold gets ignored.
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It's only when stability starts to slip that gold wakes up.
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And that's why this move matters, and why I'm making this video.
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Because what we're seeing right now isn't panic buying, it's preemptive positioning.
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And central banks aren't reacting to a crisis that's already unfolded, they're hedging a future they don't fully trust.
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But here's the part that makes it confusing.
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The stock market is near all -time highs.
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Risk -on assets are partying like it's 2am in Miami, and AI stocks are being valued like they've already replaced half the workforce.
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but at the same time, gold is also at all -time highs.
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And this isn't normal.
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Historically, markets pick a lane.
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Either risk on assets, like stocks and real estate, are soaring because confidence is high.
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or risk -off assets, like gold, are rallying because fear is rising.
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not both happening at the same time.
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We're seeing a world where stocks are priced for optimistic growth, gold is priced for a troubling future, and bonds are priced for confusion.
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Every asset class seems to be sending a different signal.
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And this dissonance across markets creates an environment where two people can look at the exact same data
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and come to completely different conclusions.
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We're seeing more mixed signals than that girl who says, "I'm not looking for anything serious," and then asks what your love language is.
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So, leave your take on what's happening in the comments, because that's where things tend to get interesting.
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And there's one thing for certain: markets don't behave like this when the future is clear, and that's why this gold move matters.
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of who is buying it and why.
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Because the biggest players in the global financial system are quietly repositioning and nobody is talking about it.
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And that's something worth keeping an eye on.
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연습 팁 (쉐도잉 전용)
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