Prática de Shadowing: A New Way to Trade Emerging Markets - Aprenda a falar inglês com o YouTube

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This is The Markets.

I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Thursday, February 26th, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Stratford Dennis,

who is head of Emerging Markets Equities Trading within Global Banking and Markets.

Strat, thanks so much for joining us again.

Thanks for having me on.

I always look forward to doing this.

Yeah, well, Strat, you know 2026 is already the year of Emerging Markets when we kick it off with you, and two months later we got you back.

It's fantastic.

It's been a nice run for Emerging Markets.

What's going on?

Why is it working so well?

It's very simple, flows and fundamentals.

Year-to-date, we've seen about $45 billion of inflows into global EM, which surpasses last year, full year already.

And if you think about last year, obviously, we had a strong year.

And from an inflow perspective, that was stronger than what we've seen in the past few years.

So to already surpass that within two months of the year, it says how robust the flows are.

And then fundamentals.

From an earnings perspective, things have been strong.

fundamentally we're seeing stronger emerging markets globally.

So you couple the two and we see the strength that we've seen year to date.

Let's peel back the onion a little bit because what's interesting too in this, all of this has happened with China not actually being the driver.

What's going on with China?

Why is it lagging?

Yeah, I think you're right.

First of all, you're just not seeing the earnings growth.

So you look at how China performed well last year.

All of that was due to multiple expansion.

So really the market kind of pre-traded things and now it's waiting to see you know, when are the earnings going to get there?

The second thing is from a flow perspective, really what we're seeing on the flow side is flows into kind of Korea,

Taiwan, even Japan as well, and not into China.

And the third thing, you really, if you look at things from an economic perspective, the economy is kind of bifurcated.

The exporters are doing well there,

but the companies that have exposure to kind of domestic demand are not doing as well because there has been weakness there.

And then lastly, you know, we'll perhaps talk about the dollar.

The weaker dollar that we've seen really is in a China story.

It's really an EMX China story.

So it's not getting the tailwind from that that the rest of emerging markets are getting.

Yeah, it's a good point about the dollar.

And then, you know, when you think of the tariff implications there, too, if the exporters were doing well in China, they're not going to get any relief here from the new tariff regulations, right?

Correct.

Yeah.

So we have to wait for that domestic China trade.

All right, let's pivot before we go to the dollar to Latin America, because you've always taught me that, you know, Brazil can be a great place to be.

And Brazil, it's been a great place to be.

First of all, I don't know how much I've taught you.

You certainly taught me more.

But yeah, look, we like Brazil.

We continue to like Brazil.

We think they're going to be 250 basis points of cuts, you know, starting very soon.

We like that you're getting exposure to the commodity cycle.

We still are bullish there.

And then you have the election upside where depending on who wins the election, we think it could be bullish, a bullish catalyst for the for the markets.

On the contrary, I will say that it's not as cheap as it once was.

And from a from a positioning perspective, I certainly things aren't crowded, but it's less of an underweight as what we've seen in the past.

But with that being said, typically when you get these cutting cycles, They tend to last longer than the market expects,

and those cycles tend to be good for equities.

So we do like Brazil still.

All right.

You mentioned the dollar.

Let's go into the dollar a little bit because Korea, when you and I were talking just before we started this podcast,

that's up like 60% or something because it's getting a lot of tailwinds from the dollar on top of everything else.

What's going on with the dollar, and why is that such a tailwind for emerging markets?

It's incredible.

You just mentioned Korea.

It's obviously had in dollar terms up almost 100% last year and now it's up another 60%.

And as you mentioned, it's February 26th.

So I won't annualize those numbers, but obviously it's been a strong run.

But typically when I think about my trading framework, and I've mentioned this in previous instances,

I think of emerging markets as kind of EMX China and China.

And when you think about EMX China, one of the kind of main inputs into how do you think things are going to go from a risk

and equities perspective is the dollar.

And you have exposure to both implicit

and kind of explicit exposure to dollar weakness to the extent you invest in these things via things like ADRs and U.S.

ETFs.

There is explicit dollar exposure into those products.

So a weaker dollar is going to provide a tailwind across EMX China.

And then the second thing I would mention is that a weaker dollar tends to coincide with, you know, strength in commodities.

And for areas like Latin America, we have exposure to strong commodities.

And, you know, that's one of the reasons we like things like Brazil.

So a weak dollar does kind of find its way into EM assets in kind of a number of ways.

Yeah, I know.

It's a great point on the commodity side because so many of these emerging markets do focus on commodities.

So let's put a bow on this.

When you think about it, do I still want to own emerging markets after this big run?

And if I do, where do I want to own it?

Yes, I think you do.

Now, I talk with you about emerging markets and international markets, and I love doing it.

But at the core of kind of what I trade has been derivatives and structured products.

So forgive me if I get a little too technical, but I want to be long emerging markets kind of across EMX China.

I still like Brazil, but I think the way that I like to do it is through call spreads and call ratios.

Fantastic.

I love myself a good call spread.

So essentially what's happening is that because of the rally, if you look at the implied vol surface, the very high upside calls are very, very bid.

And that makes sense because emerging markets are up 15% in less than two months.

That's going to happen.

As a result, what we would call that is skew flattening, meaning these upside calls are very expensive.

And so that means that if you buy a kind of at-the-money or slightly above-at-the-money call, and then you sell either one or even two of the upper strikes,

you get into call spreads and call ratios.

And those call ratios provide very attractive risk-reward right now because of the flatness and skew.

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So if you look at whether it's MSCI EM or you can look at Brazil through the Bovespa, You can get into call spreads and call ratios that offer five

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or six to one payout ratios depending on the strikes you pick.

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So that's what I like.

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I think that it differs.

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It's still bullish, but I think the difference between where I am now

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and where I was when I was here earlier in the year is the structures

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that we have our kind of longs on should perform well, but not as well if the market continues to gap the way it's done.

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I'm basically saying I think the market will continue to go higher, but the velocity of the move will be slower than it's been.

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That's such a great point.

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You want to keep exposure to emerging markets, but sell some of that upside exposure because we've already seen it.

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Exactly.

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Great.

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All right.

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What are we looking for ahead as catalysts?

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Look, the things I'm thinking about, it's probably too perhaps too early for most to think about it, but I am starting to think about the Brazil election.

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We're starting to see the news cycle pick up.

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We're starting to see the Brazilian index start to trade as news comes out about the election.

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And then, you know, I I will say that although I focus on international markets, I think everybody is focused on,

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you know, the play between AI and kind of the AI at risk firms.

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And so kind of figuring out how the market digests this theme

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and how that theme plays out is still central to me in international markets

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because if you look at even broad groups of equities like Global EM,

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what you'll see is that if the S&P and the U.S equities sell off significantly, my products can kind of outperform, but they're not going to be up.

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So kind of risk sentiment along this story is something that's certainly on my mind.

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Yeah, correlation has been such an issue for these markets for so long.

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Stratt, terrific conversation.

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Thanks for joining us.

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Thank you for having me.

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That does it for this week's episode of The Markets.

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I'm Chris Hussey.

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Thanks for joining us. may contain forward-looking statements.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations

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or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein, and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

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Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only,

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and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

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A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

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Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

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This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part, or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

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