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What happens when you simulate the World Cup 10,000 times?

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What happens when you simulate the World Cup 10,000 times?

This simulation was built using a model trained on thousands of real matches and probability data, not AI.

And we're going to tell you exactly how it unfolds.

Within this video, there will be a team that progresses from the group with only one point.

A team that doesn't concede a single goal all tournament long and possibly the greatest final of all time.

We've got so many crazy simulations,

you honestly will not believe how some of them played out and hopefully will play out because that's the fun of this.

So let's kick this off with the group stages.

And despite not having a clear favourite,

Group A threw out some really interesting results.

South Africa were the most likely to finish bottom of this group.

They did so 4,670 times.

Now, despite this, there were 12 simulations where they didn't just get through the group.

They won the whole tournament.

In simulation 4733, they beat Belgium,

the USA, Croatia, Germany, and then Argentina in the final to win the whole thing.

South African fans, are you excited?

Let me know in the comments down below, please.

But ultimately, the most likely winners of this group were Mexico.

And in roughly half of the simulations, they won the group.

with Korea Republic being the second most likely to do so,

meaning that the probabilities from the simulations have them finishing second.

However, in simulation 1-2-2 or 122,

depending on who you are,

every single game in this group finished as a draw,

with Mexico and Czechia progressing on goals scored.

Now, Group B, it was an interesting one because there was a clear dominant team in this one.

The neutrals' favourite, Switzerland, won the group over 5,400 times,

making them by far the most likely to win the group.

But Canada, Canada fared very well in the 10,000 simulations too.

They've never made the knockout stages before,

but in our simulations, they made the round of 32 over 9,000 times.

Get ready for history to be made, possibly.

And the simulations actually had quite a few instances of Canada making the final.

But, of course, it's not that simple because in 17 of these finals,

their opposition was the USA.

And Canada actually won 11 of those finals.

Elsewhere in the group, Bosnia were the most likely to finish third,

whilst Qatar finished bottom in over half of the simulations.

Now, Group A and Group B, great stuff, OK?

And there's wonderful things to come.

But I've got to say,

Group C is by far the most surprising.

Now, typically, most people would have Brazil as favourites for the group, obviously.

The simulations saw it differently overall because Morocco topped this group 46.7% of the time,

with Brazil only topping it 43.7% of the time.

Now, obviously, Morocco have a point to prove after AFCON.

And actually, the AFCON final was replayed in 15 different simulations.

Speaking of AFCON, in simulation 9016,

they beat Senegal 4-0 to win the whole thing.

Could you imagine?

But in Sim 2482, Brazil were involved in possibly the best World Cup final ever.

Yep, trumping the last one.

They faced Belgium and it ended 5-5.

Imagine that.

It went to penalties, but I'm sorry to say,

Brazil, Belgium came out on top in that simulation.

Now, before I give you the bad news, bad news for some.

Let me tell you this.

In simulation 6,775, what a bell that was.

Scotland beat Germany, France, Switzerland,

and Bosnia to make it to the final against England.

And it went to penalties.

And Scotland won.

Now, for the most part,

Scotland finished third in our simulations,

but still retained a 65% chance of making the round of 32.

Meanwhile, debutants Haiti finished bottom in over 7,800 simulations.

Right, onto group D.

And it really didn't pan out the way that I thought it would do because,

you know, the USA came out on top in this group 41.9% of the time.

And in simulation 656, they made it all the way to the final with an insane route.

They beat Belgium, then Argentina,

then Portugal, off you go Messi,

off you go Ronaldo, and then France before meeting Spain in the final and losing on penalties.

Elsewhere in this group, Turkey placed second on average the most times,

meaning that Australia finished third.

But in simulation 6337, they made it out of the group by drawing every game.

But the draws didn't stop there.

They continued drawing all the way to the final,

winning on penalties each time.

They even won the whole thing.

If you win the tournament,

but you haven't won a game in regular time, does it count?

Yes, it does.

Now, Paraguay, Group D did not come out that well in the simulations at all,

finishing bottom 39.2% of the time,

which is a bit of a surprise for me.

Not fun for Paraguay, but Group E was fun for everyone because you've got Germany's clear favourites,

and that was evident in the likelihood of them winning the group being 56.9%.

But then you've got Ecuador and Cote d'Avoire,

who have underrated squads, in my opinion.

That is the group of death,

clearly, right now ecuador especially considering some of the talent

that they have in their squad are definitely a team to keep an eye out on

when it came to the simulations

and the simulations really reflected this giving ecuador the highest probability of finishing second

but cote d'avroir weren't that far behind them either

so this group could well be one to keep an eye

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on for unpredictability now interestingly curacao i think that's how you say it finished bottom 70% of the time, not great.

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But in one of the 10,000 Sims,

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they actually reached the final.

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But it was heartbreak for them against Portugal in the final.

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But I think you'd take that, right?

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Right, let's talk Group F because it is another one that could throw up some surprises.

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The Netherlands came out on top in terms of probability of finishing first with Japan frequently coming second.

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But Sweden in this group,

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they threw up some interesting results.

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Sweden qualified for the tournament,

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of course, despite not winning any qualifying matches thanks to the playoff of course.

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But in simulation 5,471 Graham Potter's side met England in the final and even won it on penalties.

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The irony if an English manager that takes over from Thomas Tuchel wins the World Cup against Thomas Tuchel.

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No, this can't happen.

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Very good.

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Let's move on.

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Lastly, Tunisia were the unfortunate team in fourth spot most of the time.

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Group G may have been the most cut and dry when it came to first and last.

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You've got Belgium frequently coming out on top at 54.5% chance of winning the group.

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Meanwhile, with only 1% chance of winning the group, it's New Zealand.

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So with this happening, it meant

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that it was a bit of a head-to-head between Egypt

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and Iran for the second place spot and on average it went in Iran's favour,

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meaning that Iran's most likely opponent in the round of 32 was frequently the USA.

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Yeah.

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Group H featured the biggest favourite to win their group,

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with Spain pulling in a 73.9% chance of winning their group.

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That's the highest percentage of any team in the tournament totaled.

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And in one simulation, Spain even scored a total of 32 goals.

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For context, the current record is 27,

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set by Hungary in 1954.

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And to finish second, there was also quite a clear favourite in Uruguay at 47.7%.

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And therefore, that didn't give much hope to Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde,

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apart from this simulation.

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3,931 because Cape Verde won the whole tournament while scoring only four goals.

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They scored twice in the group,

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drew 0-0 in the round of 32 and the round of 16,

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winning both on penalties.

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They then drew 1-1 with England in the semifinal,

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going through on penalties, and then drew with France in the final and won again on penalties.

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Now, I've chosen my group of death,

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but group I is considered the group of death because there are three heavy hitters in this group.

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And despite this, the simulations massively favoured France on average,

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giving them a 62% likelihood of winning the group.

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So it became a shootout for second place between Senegal and Norway.

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Now, on one hand, you've got a team who had a perfect qualifying record in Norway.

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And on the other hand,

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you've got Senegal winners or losers, depending on whatever.

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Finalists, they were in the final of AFCON.

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But Senegal came out on top and the simulation did struggle to separate them with a big majority.

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So keep an eye out for their game on the 23rd of June.

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It will be blockbuster.

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Apologies to Iraq.

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The quality in this group proved to be too much,

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making them the likeliest to be by a distance the team that finishes bottom.

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Group J features the current winners.

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But now Messi is four years older.

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So surely he won't win another, right?

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We don't know yet when we played,

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but it does bode quite well for the group stages for Argentina

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because they were the most dominant team when it came to winning the group.

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And we'll have a look at Argentina's chances of winning the whole thing a little bit later.

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But whilst we've got you,

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and surely this is the last opportunity for this, Ronaldo versus Messi.

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Who's better?

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Let us know in the comments.

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But the final between the two,

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it did actually happen 68 times in the 10,000 simulations.

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Elsewhere in the group, the simulations were really splitting hairs deciding between Austria

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and Algeria with Austria coming out on top by just 1%.

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But ultimately this made it very difficult for Jordan who finished bottom more than two thirds of the time.

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And then finally, before heading to England's group,

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we took a look at group K.

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Now, Portugal came out on top,

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unsurprisingly, and in simulation number one,

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the first one, which I don't know if that carries any more meaning.

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It probably doesn't.

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They're all equally valued.

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They made it to the final without conceding a single goal.

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But they lost on penalties to the Netherlands.

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And this group for them was quite straightforward,

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really, because Colombia finished second in 40% of the simulations,

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with DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting out for third.

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And now, England's group.

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I know, this is what you've been waiting for, eh?

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Well, it's actually quite disappointing.

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In almost every group, the favourites have won it with big majorities.

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But England, for some reason,

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it wasn't that straightforward because Croatia finished first 47.2% of the time,

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whilst England finished first 46.8% of the time.

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Surprisingly, the simulation also favoured Panama over Ghana.

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I guess we'll see how it plays out.

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And all of that factors,

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of course, into who everyone plays in the round of 32.

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And so to understand who faces who,

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we need to take a look at the teams who made it through as the best third place finishers.

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So who are everyone's most likely opponents for this round?

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So this is what we've done.

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We've built a bracket considering the entire 10,000 simulations.

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And there were some really interesting ties here.

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You've got England against Colombia,

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Ecuador versus Senegal, Mexico versus Scotland.

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Portugal versus the Ivory Coast,

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Argentina versus Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay.

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And that gave us this bracket.

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But the problem is we're still no closer to understanding who will win the entire tournament.

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So we took into account every single team's 10,000 simulations and put it into one number.

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Their percentage chance of winning the World Cup.

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So in 10th, surprisingly, it was the USA with 4.3% chance.

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Then only in 9th, I couldn't believe this,

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was Brazil with 4.6% chance.

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Morocco were joint with Brazil also on 4.6.

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Then we have a little jump up to Belgium at 6%,

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which felt a bit low to me.

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Croatia, interestingly, were, however, ahead of them with 6.9%.

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Now the top five is where it gets so interesting because in 5th, Argentina.

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Only 7% of the simulations favouring Messi's team.

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The top four, it then becomes extremely close.

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Interestingly, despite what we said earlier about the group stage,

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England came in fourth with 8.3%,

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but only 0.3% above them was Portugal.

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Then, in second, Spain with 8.7%,

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giving France the highest chance of winning the tournament at 8.9%.

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So of course, this is a bit of fun

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and it's really interesting to see the different narratives that are going to play out.

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Which narrative do you think you will see at this tournament?

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Let me know in the comments down below.

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Now, I use data to find the World Cup's best wonder kids at this World Cup.

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If you want to find out who they are before it starts, click it.

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