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What happens when you simulate the World Cup 10,000 times?
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What happens when you simulate the World Cup 10,000 times?
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This simulation was built using a model trained on thousands of real matches and probability data, not AI.
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And we're going to tell you exactly how it unfolds.
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Within this video, there will be a team that progresses from the group with only one point.
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A team that doesn't concede a single goal all tournament long and possibly the greatest final of all time.
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We've got so many crazy simulations,
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you honestly will not believe how some of them played out and hopefully will play out because that's the fun of this.
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So let's kick this off with the group stages.
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And despite not having a clear favourite,
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Group A threw out some really interesting results.
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South Africa were the most likely to finish bottom of this group.
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They did so 4,670 times.
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Now, despite this, there were 12 simulations where they didn't just get through the group.
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They won the whole tournament.
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In simulation 4733, they beat Belgium,
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the USA, Croatia, Germany, and then Argentina in the final to win the whole thing.
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South African fans, are you excited?
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Let me know in the comments down below, please.
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But ultimately, the most likely winners of this group were Mexico.
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And in roughly half of the simulations, they won the group.
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with Korea Republic being the second most likely to do so,
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meaning that the probabilities from the simulations have them finishing second.
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However, in simulation 1-2-2 or 122,
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depending on who you are,
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every single game in this group finished as a draw,
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with Mexico and Czechia progressing on goals scored.
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Now, Group B, it was an interesting one because there was a clear dominant team in this one.
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The neutrals' favourite, Switzerland, won the group over 5,400 times,
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making them by far the most likely to win the group.
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But Canada, Canada fared very well in the 10,000 simulations too.
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They've never made the knockout stages before,
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but in our simulations, they made the round of 32 over 9,000 times.
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Get ready for history to be made, possibly.
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And the simulations actually had quite a few instances of Canada making the final.
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But, of course, it's not that simple because in 17 of these finals,
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their opposition was the USA.
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And Canada actually won 11 of those finals.
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Elsewhere in the group, Bosnia were the most likely to finish third,
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whilst Qatar finished bottom in over half of the simulations.
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Now, Group A and Group B, great stuff, OK?
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And there's wonderful things to come.
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But I've got to say,
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Group C is by far the most surprising.
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Now, typically, most people would have Brazil as favourites for the group, obviously.
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The simulations saw it differently overall because Morocco topped this group 46.7% of the time,
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with Brazil only topping it 43.7% of the time.
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Now, obviously, Morocco have a point to prove after AFCON.
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And actually, the AFCON final was replayed in 15 different simulations.
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Speaking of AFCON, in simulation 9016,
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they beat Senegal 4-0 to win the whole thing.
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Could you imagine?
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But in Sim 2482, Brazil were involved in possibly the best World Cup final ever.
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Yep, trumping the last one.
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They faced Belgium and it ended 5-5.
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Imagine that.
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It went to penalties, but I'm sorry to say,
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Brazil, Belgium came out on top in that simulation.
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Now, before I give you the bad news, bad news for some.
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Let me tell you this.
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In simulation 6,775, what a bell that was.
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Scotland beat Germany, France, Switzerland,
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and Bosnia to make it to the final against England.
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And it went to penalties.
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And Scotland won.
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Now, for the most part,
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Scotland finished third in our simulations,
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but still retained a 65% chance of making the round of 32.
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Meanwhile, debutants Haiti finished bottom in over 7,800 simulations.
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Right, onto group D.
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And it really didn't pan out the way that I thought it would do because,
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you know, the USA came out on top in this group 41.9% of the time.
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And in simulation 656, they made it all the way to the final with an insane route.
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They beat Belgium, then Argentina,
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then Portugal, off you go Messi,
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off you go Ronaldo, and then France before meeting Spain in the final and losing on penalties.
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Elsewhere in this group, Turkey placed second on average the most times,
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meaning that Australia finished third.
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But in simulation 6337, they made it out of the group by drawing every game.
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But the draws didn't stop there.
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They continued drawing all the way to the final,
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winning on penalties each time.
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They even won the whole thing.
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If you win the tournament,
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but you haven't won a game in regular time, does it count?
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Yes, it does.
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Now, Paraguay, Group D did not come out that well in the simulations at all,
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finishing bottom 39.2% of the time,
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which is a bit of a surprise for me.
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Not fun for Paraguay, but Group E was fun for everyone because you've got Germany's clear favourites,
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and that was evident in the likelihood of them winning the group being 56.9%.
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But then you've got Ecuador and Cote d'Avoire,
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who have underrated squads, in my opinion.
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That is the group of death,
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clearly, right now ecuador especially considering some of the talent
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that they have in their squad are definitely a team to keep an eye out on
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when it came to the simulations
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and the simulations really reflected this giving ecuador the highest probability of finishing second
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but cote d'avroir weren't that far behind them either
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so this group could well be one to keep an eye
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on for unpredictability now interestingly curacao i think that's how you say it finished bottom 70% of the time, not great.
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But in one of the 10,000 Sims,
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they actually reached the final.
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But it was heartbreak for them against Portugal in the final.
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But I think you'd take that, right?
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Right, let's talk Group F because it is another one that could throw up some surprises.
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The Netherlands came out on top in terms of probability of finishing first with Japan frequently coming second.
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But Sweden in this group,
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they threw up some interesting results.
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Sweden qualified for the tournament,
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of course, despite not winning any qualifying matches thanks to the playoff of course.
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But in simulation 5,471 Graham Potter's side met England in the final and even won it on penalties.
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The irony if an English manager that takes over from Thomas Tuchel wins the World Cup against Thomas Tuchel.
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No, this can't happen.
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Very good.
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Let's move on.
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Lastly, Tunisia were the unfortunate team in fourth spot most of the time.
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Group G may have been the most cut and dry when it came to first and last.
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You've got Belgium frequently coming out on top at 54.5% chance of winning the group.
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Meanwhile, with only 1% chance of winning the group, it's New Zealand.
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So with this happening, it meant
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that it was a bit of a head-to-head between Egypt
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and Iran for the second place spot and on average it went in Iran's favour,
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meaning that Iran's most likely opponent in the round of 32 was frequently the USA.
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Yeah.
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Group H featured the biggest favourite to win their group,
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with Spain pulling in a 73.9% chance of winning their group.
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That's the highest percentage of any team in the tournament totaled.
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And in one simulation, Spain even scored a total of 32 goals.
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For context, the current record is 27,
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set by Hungary in 1954.
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And to finish second, there was also quite a clear favourite in Uruguay at 47.7%.
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And therefore, that didn't give much hope to Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde,
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apart from this simulation.
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3,931 because Cape Verde won the whole tournament while scoring only four goals.
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They scored twice in the group,
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drew 0-0 in the round of 32 and the round of 16,
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winning both on penalties.
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They then drew 1-1 with England in the semifinal,
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going through on penalties, and then drew with France in the final and won again on penalties.
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Now, I've chosen my group of death,
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but group I is considered the group of death because there are three heavy hitters in this group.
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And despite this, the simulations massively favoured France on average,
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giving them a 62% likelihood of winning the group.
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So it became a shootout for second place between Senegal and Norway.
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Now, on one hand, you've got a team who had a perfect qualifying record in Norway.
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And on the other hand,
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you've got Senegal winners or losers, depending on whatever.
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Finalists, they were in the final of AFCON.
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But Senegal came out on top and the simulation did struggle to separate them with a big majority.
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So keep an eye out for their game on the 23rd of June.
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It will be blockbuster.
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Apologies to Iraq.
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The quality in this group proved to be too much,
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making them the likeliest to be by a distance the team that finishes bottom.
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Group J features the current winners.
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But now Messi is four years older.
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So surely he won't win another, right?
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We don't know yet when we played,
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but it does bode quite well for the group stages for Argentina
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because they were the most dominant team when it came to winning the group.
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And we'll have a look at Argentina's chances of winning the whole thing a little bit later.
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But whilst we've got you,
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and surely this is the last opportunity for this, Ronaldo versus Messi.
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Who's better?
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Let us know in the comments.
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But the final between the two,
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it did actually happen 68 times in the 10,000 simulations.
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Elsewhere in the group, the simulations were really splitting hairs deciding between Austria
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and Algeria with Austria coming out on top by just 1%.
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But ultimately this made it very difficult for Jordan who finished bottom more than two thirds of the time.
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And then finally, before heading to England's group,
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we took a look at group K.
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Now, Portugal came out on top,
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unsurprisingly, and in simulation number one,
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the first one, which I don't know if that carries any more meaning.
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It probably doesn't.
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They're all equally valued.
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They made it to the final without conceding a single goal.
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But they lost on penalties to the Netherlands.
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And this group for them was quite straightforward,
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really, because Colombia finished second in 40% of the simulations,
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with DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting out for third.
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And now, England's group.
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I know, this is what you've been waiting for, eh?
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Well, it's actually quite disappointing.
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In almost every group, the favourites have won it with big majorities.
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But England, for some reason,
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it wasn't that straightforward because Croatia finished first 47.2% of the time,
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whilst England finished first 46.8% of the time.
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Surprisingly, the simulation also favoured Panama over Ghana.
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I guess we'll see how it plays out.
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And all of that factors,
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of course, into who everyone plays in the round of 32.
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And so to understand who faces who,
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we need to take a look at the teams who made it through as the best third place finishers.
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So who are everyone's most likely opponents for this round?
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So this is what we've done.
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We've built a bracket considering the entire 10,000 simulations.
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And there were some really interesting ties here.
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You've got England against Colombia,
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Ecuador versus Senegal, Mexico versus Scotland.
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Portugal versus the Ivory Coast,
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Argentina versus Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay.
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And that gave us this bracket.
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But the problem is we're still no closer to understanding who will win the entire tournament.
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So we took into account every single team's 10,000 simulations and put it into one number.
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Their percentage chance of winning the World Cup.
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So in 10th, surprisingly, it was the USA with 4.3% chance.
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Then only in 9th, I couldn't believe this,
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was Brazil with 4.6% chance.
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Morocco were joint with Brazil also on 4.6.
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Then we have a little jump up to Belgium at 6%,
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which felt a bit low to me.
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Croatia, interestingly, were, however, ahead of them with 6.9%.
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Now the top five is where it gets so interesting because in 5th, Argentina.
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Only 7% of the simulations favouring Messi's team.
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The top four, it then becomes extremely close.
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Interestingly, despite what we said earlier about the group stage,
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England came in fourth with 8.3%,
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but only 0.3% above them was Portugal.
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Then, in second, Spain with 8.7%,
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giving France the highest chance of winning the tournament at 8.9%.
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So of course, this is a bit of fun
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and it's really interesting to see the different narratives that are going to play out.
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Which narrative do you think you will see at this tournament?
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Let me know in the comments down below.
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Now, I use data to find the World Cup's best wonder kids at this World Cup.
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If you want to find out who they are before it starts, click it.
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В данном видео автор делится результатами уникальной симуляции Кубка мира, проведенной 10,000 раз. Это исследование основано на моделях, созданных на основе статистики реальных матчей и вероятностных данных, а не на искусственном интеллекте. В ходе времени, проведенного за просмотром, зрителям открываются удивительные факты о командах, их успехах и даже о неожиданных финалах, которые перемещают акценты с привычных фаворитов на менее ожидаемые команды. Это видео не только для футбольных фанатов, но и для тех, кто хочет улучшить свои навыки английского языка, слушая живую речь.
Топ-5 фраз для повседневного общения
- “What happens when you simulate the World Cup?” — "Что происходит, когда вы симулируете Кубок мира?"
- “The most likely winners of this group were Mexico.” — "Наиболее вероятные победители этой группы были Мексикой."
- “South African fans, are you excited?” — "Фанаты ЮАР, вы взволнованы?"
- “Get ready for history to be made, possibly.” — "Приготовьтесь, возможно, будет сделана история."
- “Morocco topped this group 46.7% of the time.” — "Марокко выиграли эту группу 46,7% времени."
Пошаговое руководство по ведению теней
Если вы хотите улучшить свои разговорные навыки с помощью shadow speech, следуйте этому простому руководству:
- Слушайте внимательно: Прослушайте видео несколько раз, чтобы уловить интонации и ритм речи.
- Начните с пауз: После каждой фразы ставьте паузу и старайтесь повторить ее в том же темпе. Это поможет вам освоить shadow speak.
- Запишите себя: После того как вы почувствовали уверенность в произношении, запишите себя, слушая, как вы звучите по сравнению с оригиналом.
- Чередуйте подходы: Попробуйте различные фразы и подходы, обсужденные в видео, и применяйте их в своих разговорах.
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Эта техника позволит вам не только овладеть новыми словами и фразами, но и значительно улучшить вашу произношение и уверенность в общении на английском языке через shadowspeaks.
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Shadowing — это научно обоснованная техника изучения языка, изначально разработанная для подготовки профессиональных переводчиков и популяризированная полиглотом доктором Александром Аргуэльесом. Метод прост, но эффективен: вы слушаете аудио на английском от носителей языка и немедленно повторяете вслух — как тень, следующая за говорящим с задержкой в 1–2 секунды. В отличие от пассивного прослушивания или грамматических упражнений, Shadowing заставляет мозг и мышцы рта одновременно обрабатывать и воспроизводить реальные речевые паттерны. Исследования показывают, что это значительно улучшает точность произношения, интонацию, ритм, связную речь, понимание на слух и беглость речи — что делает его одним из самых эффективных методов для подготовки к IELTS Speaking и реального общения на английском.
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