ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: Vietnam 2045: Why I’m Betting My Son’s Future on This Country

Vietnam has been one of the world's most remarkable success stories.

Over the last three decades, it's lifted millions out of poverty, built a strong export economy, and attracted billions in foreign investment.

But today, Vietnam is at a turning point.

For most people, that's a policy question.

For us, it's personal.

Our son's 10, and we just came back to Vietnam after a couple of years in the U.S.

And some of that was personal, family and finances.

But at the core, we made a bet that his future, our son's future, would be better here to Vietnam than back there in the U.S.

And we know that's not guaranteed.

Like every country, Vietnam has opportunities and risks.

But Vietnam has set a clear goal to become a fully developed, high-income nation by 2045.

By then, our son will be 30, and Vietnam's development will, at least in part, determine his.

Now, we're not blind to Vietnam's failings, especially here in Hanoi.

It's a great city with lots of problems.

But here's the thing, Vietnam's still a developing country, and when you remember that, a lot of this starts to make sense.

The air?

Flat out dangerous.

There are days when Hanoi ranks number one for the worst air quality in the world.

Other cities have gone through this stage and cleaned up, so I'm hopeful, but it sucks.

Traffic?

War zone.

Infrastructure is improving, new rail lines are going in, but it's gonna take time.

Media freedom?

Way better than China, but not what we're used to in the West.

Vietnam's doing a lot of things right, but the obstacles are real.

If we think ahead to 2045, the year Vietnam is to be fully developed, I see three possible futures, and each would shape our son's life in a different way.

First is the optimistic scenario.

Some countries do make the leap from low-income to global leadership, and Vietnam could be one of them.

Since the mid-1990s, the economy's been nothing short of amazing.

An average 6 to 7% GDP growth per year, one of the best in Asia.

Foreign investment keeps pouring in.

Samsung, Intel, Foxconn, Apple.

Everyone wants a piece of the pie.

The manufacturing base is strong, the expert machines humming.

No country gets rich, making the world sneakers.

Here's how countries usually climb the economic ladder.

First comes manufacturing, building factories, leveraging cheap labor.

Then services, logistics, finance.

At the top, innovation, designing and inventing for the world, not just assembling things.

In 2024, Vietnam's General Secretary, Tho Lam, laid out a strategy to climb that ladder.

If you don't follow Vietnamese politics, you probably haven't heard of him.

He rose through the Ministry of Public Security.

Now he's the country's top leader.

And without authority, he introduced four national resolutions, Vietnam's roadmap for moving from middle to high-income status.

Number one, build an innovation-driven economy.

Vietnam knows that the old growth model, cheap labor and exports, has its limits.

So this resolution pushes for something different, innovation that comes from inside Vietnam.

This means homegrown startups, and more importantly, a stronger private sector.

Now this is where Vietnam really differs from China.

In China, most major firms are owned or backed by the state.

But Vietnam's betting on private, independent companies to lead the next stage of growth.

It's still a socialist economy, but one that's powered by private innovation.

Resolution 2.

Reform State Institutions Vietnam isn't looking to reinvent the system, but to make it work better.

This means a more professional public sector, better services, and a stronger rule of law.

The goal is to build trust and modernize governance without giving up political control.

It's a delicate balance, but if it works, our son grows up in a country where public services are efficient and trustworthy.

That may not sound like much in some places, but here, that would be a breakthrough.

Number 3.

Invest in education, technology, and clean energy.

If Vietnam wants to innovate, it needs talent.

But talent can't thrive in cities with traffic jams, power cuts, and slow broadband.

It needs schools, research labs, and clean modern infrastructure.

And number four, crackdown on corruption.

In the last few years, Vietnam's launched sweeping crackdowns with some high-profile prosecutions.

It signals political will, but deep reforms won't be easy.

Together these aren't just policies.

They're Vietnam's bid to climb the development ladder and shape a future where it doesn't just manufacture for the world, it competes at the top.

If it works, it's 2045 and my son's 30.

He's thriving in a Vietnam that rivals Singapore and South Korea.

His salary meets global standards.

He's doing work he believes in.

And he stays, not just for family, but because Vietnam offers the best life he could possibly have anywhere.

That's the best version of the bet, and the one Vietnam's aiming for.

Possible, but far from guaranteed.

Scenario number two.

Not every country climbs the full ladder.

Some reach the middle and stall.

Economists call it the middle-income trap.

At first, things boom.

Factories hum, export surge, and the country climbs out of poverty.

But then, wages rise and you can't compete on cheap labor anymore.

And if a country hasn't built an innovation economy by then, there's nowhere to grow.

So where does Vietnam sit right now?

As of 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita is just over $4,000.

Low by global standards, but solidly middle income once you factor in cost of living.

And if you want to see how a country can stall out, just look at Thailand.

I remember my first trip to Thailand in 1990.

The energy was electric.

Skyscrapers popping up, shopping malls, tourists pouring in.

If you had told me then that Thailand would stall out economically, I'm not sure I would have believed you.

But reforms slowed, corruption hardened, politics fractured, and after 30 years of military coups, protests, and an aging population,

today Thailand's GDP per capita stands under 8,000 US dollars, still middle income, three decades later.

And that's another version of Vietnam's future.

If reforms stall, if education lags, if political paralysis takes hold, Vietnam could stall out to.

And this becomes my son's future.

Now it's 2045.

He's doing everything right, but the system holds him back.

Opportunities narrow.

100

Promotions go to the well-connected.

101

It feels less like a future, more like a loop.

102

His friends start to leave if they're able.

103

Singapore, Australia, Canada.

104

Eventually, maybe he leaves too.

105

Not every country stalls because it can't grow some just stop reaching.

106

Life gets better, but ambition fades.

107

And that's the third future I see for Vietnam.

108

Not failure, not crisis, just drift.

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In this version of the future, the metro opens, infrastructure improves, the economy grows, and the middle class expands.

110

People certainly live more comfortably than their parents ever did.

111

If the middle-income trap looks like Thailand, a country full of promise that got stuck in its own dysfunction, then this version feels more like or Dalyan in coastal China.

112

Cities that rose quickly became livable and modern and then leveled off.

113

They didn't fail, they just settled in.

114

You've got decent healthcare, stable careers, kids taking coding classes, people feel safe.

115

The system works well enough that no one wants to disrupt it.

116

And that's the problem.

117

Keep your head down, do your job, and let other places innovate and lead.

118

So it's 2045.

119

My son's got a decent life, maybe even runs his own business.

120

The apartment's fine, the air is cleaner than it used to be.

121

Much of traditional Vietnam is still here, and in some ways, that's a good thing.

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This is not a terrible version of the future, mind you.

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It's not a trap, but it sure isn't what Vietnam has planned.

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And it's not the full promise of the vet.

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Of course, we could have stayed in the U.S.

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It's a powerful country, full of resources, opportunity, and talent.

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And we love it there.

128

We love Pittsburgh.

129

It's our town.

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But the future in the U.S has its own uncertainties.

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So the question becomes, which set of uncertainties is best for our son?

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So after all this, after laying out three possible futures for Vietnam, you might be wondering, which one do we think is most likely?

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Which future are we betting on?

134

Will it be the high-income society at the forefront of research and innovation?

135

Will it be the middle-income trap or something in between?

136

The answer is… I don't know, man.

137

I have no idea.

138

I lost my crystal ball back in Pittsburgh.

139

Anyway, it's not the point.

140

And now we'll keep moving forward.

141

The momentum's real.

142

But the direction?

143

That's still an open question.

144

In the 16 years I've been here, I've seen transformations you wouldn't believe.

145

Not all of them good.

146

worse.

147

Over-tourism is threatening places like war and poverty never did.

148

But there is a rising middle class.

149

There are opportunities.

150

And if you ask most Vietnamese, you'll hear again and again, they believe the future will be better than the past.

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So maybe the bet is really on optimism.

152

In a sense that whatever Vietnam faces, whether it leaps, stalls or drifts, it'll face it as a society.

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That doesn't fix everything.

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My son's generation has plenty of work ahead, but I'd rather place my bet on a place where people act like they're in it together.

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Corny, isn't it?

156

That really is the bet.

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Vietnam has achieved a lot in a short amount of time.

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In 30 years, it's gone from being one of the world's poorest countries to a rising manufacturing and tech hub,

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attracting foreign investors, tourists, and even immigrants like me.

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And now millions of young Vietnamese like my son are coming of age in a country that's at a turning point.

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A country with real opportunities and real uncertainty.

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I know where my son's growing up and I know he'll have to find his own way, but I hope when he gets older he sees it clearly.

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What this place offered him, what it asked of him, and why we chose it.

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ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: Vietnam 2045: Why I’m Betting My Son’s Future on This Country

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