Практика Shadowing: Vietnam 2045: Why I’m Betting My Son’s Future on This Country - Изучайте разговорный английский по видео

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Vietnam has been one of the world's most remarkable success stories.
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Over the last three decades, it's lifted millions out of poverty, built a strong export economy, and attracted billions in foreign investment.
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But today, Vietnam is at a turning point.
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For most people, that's a policy question.
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For us, it's personal.
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Our son's 10, and we just came back to Vietnam after a couple of years in the U.S.
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And some of that was personal, family and finances.
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But at the core, we made a bet that his future, our son's future, would be better here to Vietnam than back there in the U.S.
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And we know that's not guaranteed.
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Like every country, Vietnam has opportunities and risks.
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But Vietnam has set a clear goal to become a fully developed, high-income nation by 2045.
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By then, our son will be 30, and Vietnam's development will, at least in part, determine his.
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Now, we're not blind to Vietnam's failings, especially here in Hanoi.
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It's a great city with lots of problems.
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But here's the thing, Vietnam's still a developing country, and when you remember that, a lot of this starts to make sense.
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The air?
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Flat out dangerous.
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There are days when Hanoi ranks number one for the worst air quality in the world.
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Other cities have gone through this stage and cleaned up, so I'm hopeful, but it sucks.
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Traffic?
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War zone.
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Infrastructure is improving, new rail lines are going in, but it's gonna take time.
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Media freedom?
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Way better than China, but not what we're used to in the West.
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Vietnam's doing a lot of things right, but the obstacles are real.
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If we think ahead to 2045, the year Vietnam is to be fully developed, I see three possible futures, and each would shape our son's life in a different way.
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First is the optimistic scenario.
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Some countries do make the leap from low-income to global leadership, and Vietnam could be one of them.
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Since the mid-1990s, the economy's been nothing short of amazing.
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An average 6 to 7% GDP growth per year, one of the best in Asia.
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Foreign investment keeps pouring in.
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Samsung, Intel, Foxconn, Apple.
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Everyone wants a piece of the pie.
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The manufacturing base is strong, the expert machines humming.
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No country gets rich, making the world sneakers.
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Here's how countries usually climb the economic ladder.
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First comes manufacturing, building factories, leveraging cheap labor.
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Then services, logistics, finance.
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At the top, innovation, designing and inventing for the world, not just assembling things.
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In 2024, Vietnam's General Secretary, Tho Lam, laid out a strategy to climb that ladder.
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If you don't follow Vietnamese politics, you probably haven't heard of him.
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He rose through the Ministry of Public Security.
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Now he's the country's top leader.
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And without authority, he introduced four national resolutions, Vietnam's roadmap for moving from middle to high-income status.
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Number one, build an innovation-driven economy.
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Vietnam knows that the old growth model, cheap labor and exports, has its limits.
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So this resolution pushes for something different, innovation that comes from inside Vietnam.
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This means homegrown startups, and more importantly, a stronger private sector.
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Now this is where Vietnam really differs from China.
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In China, most major firms are owned or backed by the state.
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But Vietnam's betting on private, independent companies to lead the next stage of growth.
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It's still a socialist economy, but one that's powered by private innovation.
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Resolution 2.
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Reform State Institutions Vietnam isn't looking to reinvent the system, but to make it work better.
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This means a more professional public sector, better services, and a stronger rule of law.
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The goal is to build trust and modernize governance without giving up political control.
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It's a delicate balance, but if it works, our son grows up in a country where public services are efficient and trustworthy.
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That may not sound like much in some places, but here, that would be a breakthrough.
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Number 3.
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Invest in education, technology, and clean energy.
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If Vietnam wants to innovate, it needs talent.
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But talent can't thrive in cities with traffic jams, power cuts, and slow broadband.
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It needs schools, research labs, and clean modern infrastructure.
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And number four, crackdown on corruption.
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In the last few years, Vietnam's launched sweeping crackdowns with some high-profile prosecutions.
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It signals political will, but deep reforms won't be easy.
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Together these aren't just policies.
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They're Vietnam's bid to climb the development ladder and shape a future where it doesn't just manufacture for the world, it competes at the top.
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If it works, it's 2045 and my son's 30.
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He's thriving in a Vietnam that rivals Singapore and South Korea.
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His salary meets global standards.
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He's doing work he believes in.
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And he stays, not just for family, but because Vietnam offers the best life he could possibly have anywhere.
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That's the best version of the bet, and the one Vietnam's aiming for.
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Possible, but far from guaranteed.
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Scenario number two.
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Not every country climbs the full ladder.
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Some reach the middle and stall.
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Economists call it the middle-income trap.
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At first, things boom.
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Factories hum, export surge, and the country climbs out of poverty.
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But then, wages rise and you can't compete on cheap labor anymore.
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And if a country hasn't built an innovation economy by then, there's nowhere to grow.
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So where does Vietnam sit right now?
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As of 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita is just over $4,000.
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Low by global standards, but solidly middle income once you factor in cost of living.
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And if you want to see how a country can stall out, just look at Thailand.
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I remember my first trip to Thailand in 1990.
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The energy was electric.
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Skyscrapers popping up, shopping malls, tourists pouring in.
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If you had told me then that Thailand would stall out economically, I'm not sure I would have believed you.
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But reforms slowed, corruption hardened, politics fractured, and after 30 years of military coups, protests, and an aging population,
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today Thailand's GDP per capita stands under 8,000 US dollars, still middle income, three decades later.
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And that's another version of Vietnam's future.
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If reforms stall, if education lags, if political paralysis takes hold, Vietnam could stall out to.
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And this becomes my son's future.
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Now it's 2045.
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He's doing everything right, but the system holds him back.
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Opportunities narrow.
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Promotions go to the well-connected.
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It feels less like a future, more like a loop.
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His friends start to leave if they're able.
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Singapore, Australia, Canada.
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Eventually, maybe he leaves too.
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Not every country stalls because it can't grow some just stop reaching.
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Life gets better, but ambition fades.
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And that's the third future I see for Vietnam.
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Not failure, not crisis, just drift.
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In this version of the future, the metro opens, infrastructure improves, the economy grows, and the middle class expands.
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People certainly live more comfortably than their parents ever did.
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If the middle-income trap looks like Thailand, a country full of promise that got stuck in its own dysfunction, then this version feels more like or Dalyan in coastal China.
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Cities that rose quickly became livable and modern and then leveled off.
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They didn't fail, they just settled in.
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You've got decent healthcare, stable careers, kids taking coding classes, people feel safe.
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The system works well enough that no one wants to disrupt it.
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And that's the problem.
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Keep your head down, do your job, and let other places innovate and lead.
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So it's 2045.
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My son's got a decent life, maybe even runs his own business.
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The apartment's fine, the air is cleaner than it used to be.
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Much of traditional Vietnam is still here, and in some ways, that's a good thing.
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This is not a terrible version of the future, mind you.
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It's not a trap, but it sure isn't what Vietnam has planned.
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And it's not the full promise of the vet.
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Of course, we could have stayed in the U.S.
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It's a powerful country, full of resources, opportunity, and talent.
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And we love it there.
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We love Pittsburgh.
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It's our town.
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But the future in the U.S has its own uncertainties.
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So the question becomes, which set of uncertainties is best for our son?
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So after all this, after laying out three possible futures for Vietnam, you might be wondering, which one do we think is most likely?
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Which future are we betting on?
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Will it be the high-income society at the forefront of research and innovation?
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Will it be the middle-income trap or something in between?
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The answer is… I don't know, man.
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I have no idea.
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I lost my crystal ball back in Pittsburgh.
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Anyway, it's not the point.
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And now we'll keep moving forward.
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The momentum's real.
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But the direction?
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That's still an open question.
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In the 16 years I've been here, I've seen transformations you wouldn't believe.
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Not all of them good.
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worse.
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Over-tourism is threatening places like war and poverty never did.
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But there is a rising middle class.
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There are opportunities.
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And if you ask most Vietnamese, you'll hear again and again, they believe the future will be better than the past.
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So maybe the bet is really on optimism.
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In a sense that whatever Vietnam faces, whether it leaps, stalls or drifts, it'll face it as a society.
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That doesn't fix everything.
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My son's generation has plenty of work ahead, but I'd rather place my bet on a place where people act like they're in it together.
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Corny, isn't it?
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That really is the bet.
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Vietnam has achieved a lot in a short amount of time.
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In 30 years, it's gone from being one of the world's poorest countries to a rising manufacturing and tech hub,
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attracting foreign investors, tourists, and even immigrants like me.
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And now millions of young Vietnamese like my son are coming of age in a country that's at a turning point.
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A country with real opportunities and real uncertainty.
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I know where my son's growing up and I know he'll have to find his own way, but I hope when he gets older he sees it clearly.
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What this place offered him, what it asked of him, and why we chose it.

Контекст и фон

Вьетнам стал одной из самых впечатляющих историй успеха в мире за последние три десятилетия. Страна смогла вывести миллионы людей из бедности и привлечь значительные иностранные инвестиции. Говоря об этом, многие думают о политике и экономике, но для нас, как родителей, это личный выбор. Мы сделали ставку на будущее нашего сына, который в возрасте 10 лет, и решили, что его жизнь будет лучше в Вьетнаме, чем в США. У Вьетнама есть свои проблемы, но стране поставлена четкая цель — стать высокоразвитой нацией к 2045 году.

Топ-5 фраз для ежедневного общения

  • «Как вы относитесь к будущему Вьетнама?» - Вопрос для обсуждения перспектив.
  • «Какие изменения вы заметили в Ханое?» - Полезная фраза для обсуждения личного опыта.
  • «Что вы думаете о качестве воздуха в городе?» - Тема для диалога о здоровье и экологии.
  • «Какие иностранные компании появились в Вьетнаме?» - Вопрос о влиянии иностранных инвестиций.
  • «Каковы планы правительства на ближайшие годы?» - Способ обсудить политику и экономику.

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