Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: Bizline - Việt Nam's rise: A diplomat's view | Vietnam Today

Around the world today, governments are racing to secure supply chains,

invest in critical minerals and build the technologies that will shape the 21st century economy.

Vietnam is increasingly part of that global story.

With sweeping reforms and an ambitious target of double-digit growth, the country is aiming to climb the global value chain,

not just expand within it.

How do global investors view Vietnam's next move?

Joining us on Bizline is Andrew Golodznowski,

former Australian ambassador to Vietnam and a veteran diplomat with four decades of experience.

Although now based back in Australia, he continues to follow Vietnam's economic journey closely.

We were fortunate to catch up with him during his recent visit to Vietnam.

Our reporter Lina Pham spoke with him about the country's growth ambitions its strategic resources,

and why this could be a defining moment for Vietnam's economic future.

I'm curious about what brought you back.

Right.

Well, Lina, I retired in March when I went back to Australia

because that was 40 years of service in the foreign ministry, and I thought that was probably enough.

And now I'm involved in all sorts of other things, but most of them Vietnam-related.

So this particular trip I'm doing with an Australian company called EQ Resources,

which is the largest miner of tungsten in the world outside of China.

And they are visiting their customer here in Vietnam, which is Ma Sun High Tech,

which is the biggest refiner of tungsten in the world outside of China.

Tungsten is one of the critical minerals in the world.

The supply chain is very important.

Something that's important in the world that's made, manufactured, is involving with tungsten in some way.

So if we can strengthen that supply chain, then it's good for both Vietnam and Australia.

The resolution 57, it did mention minerals and the strategy of Vietnam to leverage that.

What do you think of the current situation?

Vietnam is not traditionally a country that has done very much with its natural resources under the ground.

But in fact, Vietnam is incredibly rich.

So your tungsten reserves, I mentioned that, that's important for semiconductors, for machine tools, for aviation, for military applications.

You have the second biggest reserves in the world.

Rare earths.

Everybody's crazy about rare earths now.

Again, Vietnam, we think, has the second biggest reserves in the world, after China.

And I know that the government is very keen

that some exploration should happen to get a better definition of exactly what the value and quality of Vietnam's reserves are.

But what I understand Vietnam's strategy is, and I think this is a correct one, is not just to dig up minerals and sell them overseas.

It's to create the entire supply chain from mining to refining and separation through to making of metals,

and then the finished products.

So, you know, the iPhone in my pocket includes rare earths.

Without the rare earths, it doesn't function.

And, you know, Vietnam is one of the few countries in the world

that has the potential to do everything from mines to metals and to magnets.

It's the magnets that are the key to so many applications these days.

So, Australia is the biggest refiner of rare earths rare earths outside of China.

So again, again, there's this sort of natural synergy, natural complementarity where we can do things together.

Vietnam is widely considered one of the countries with the greatest potential for strategic mineral resources in the world,

particularly rare earths and tungsten.

According to U.S geological survey, Vietnam ranks second globally in rare earth reserves after China.

However, most activities in Vietnam remain at the stage of exploration and pilot projects,

as rare earth separation technology is highly complex and carries significant environmental risks.

In contrast, Vietnam's tungsten industry has already reached a global scale.

The Nui Fao mine in Taiwan operated by Massan Hightech Materials is the largest tungsten mine in the world outside China.

Vietnam's mineral strategy is shifting away from exporting raw materials toward building a complete value chain.

According to Resolution 57, mineral resources should not simply be treated as commodities to sell.

Instead, Vietnam aims to transition from a resource-extracting country to a producer of advanced materials and technology.

The resolution emphasizes that natural resources, especially strategic minerals, should be developed through deep processing,

avoiding raw exports and integrating into global technology value chains.

Technology is also a big part of your work.

Can you tell us more about what you have been doing to maybe help Vietnam to get more investors?

Everyone is racing for technology.

It's kind of the new thing.

I was in Malaysia last week, and Malaysia is competing with Vietnam

to make semiconductors and to build data centers and all of these important elements for 21st century technology.

But I think Vietnam has a fantastic opportunity.

I'll give you an example.

I'm talking next week to one of Australia's two big data centre producers.

They've been very successful in other parts of Southeast Asia in producing first class data centres

because there's different levels of data centres.

It's like levels of tea or anything.

And the high quality ones are the ones which the Apples and the NVIDIAs and the Googles need to use.

And they're now interested in Vietnam, which I think is very exciting.

And the technology can go in both directions.

I can see a future where Vietnam is the number one choice for Australian companies who want to outsource their IT work.

software development, data analysis, Vietnam has that potential.

Global supply chains are once again under pressure as tensions in the Middle East keep energy markets on edge.

Nearly 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz,

making the region a critical choke point for global trade and energy security.

Rising shipping costs, volatile oil prices

and intensifying geopolitical competition are forcing companies to rethink where they produce and how they move goods.

For Vietnam, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up oil and energy prices, creating inflationary pressure.

Logistics and maritime shipping have also become more extensive, forcing export-oriented industries such as textile,

furniture, electronics and fruitware to bear higher costs,

face longer delivery times and see their profit margins shrink.

There is also the risk of disruption to technology supply chains.

These developments present a series of concrete challenges for Vietnam's economy,

particularly because Vietnam is a highly open economy with total trade equivalent to roughly 200% of GDP.

The National Assembly set a target for GDP growth 10%, which everybody thinks is very ambitious.

But the question now is, is it realistic?

Well, I think that's a really good question.

I remember when I first arrived in Vietnam, the ambition was to do 6% a year, 6.5%.

And then when the new General Secretary was appointed, he made a speech to the Central Committee

where he made a number of commitments to reduce the size of the civil service,

to consolidate provinces, to do a number of important things like that, and he promised double-digit economic growth.

I identified the double-digit growth commitment as being the most important element

because it implies that the private sector will have to take the lead.

And that's now been formalised in Resolution 68.

And I think that's the key.

You know, Vietnam is doing very well.

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But only 50% of Vietnam's economy is private sector.

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50%.

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And only 30% of tax revenues come from the private sector.

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In Australia, the number is 85%.

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So what that means is there's a lot of room for growth in Vietnam.

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But it has to be driven by the private sector

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and that's the genius of what the General Secretary has put in place

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There are challenges when you try and grow an economy fast

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You can overheat and you can generate inflation which would be terrible in the Vietnamese context

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The other challenge is Vietnam is an exporting economy.

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You're very open to the world but now we're going into a phase when protectionism is increasing, tariffs are increasing, the world is becoming less predictable.

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The third big challenge I guess is Vietnam wants to achieve all of these things

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which no country has achieved since Korea did it back in the 1980s while at the same time also decarbonizing your economy.

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That's incredibly difficult, very complex.

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I think Vietnam can do it.

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So again the growth challenge is very difficult for Vietnam especially now with the global headwinds,

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the tariffs and everything.

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What do you think can be the driver, the key accelerator of this growth engine?

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First of all, the double-digit goal is really important.

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The average GDP in Vietnam per capita is about 5,000 US dollars.

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So for Vietnam, it's essential to do that kind of growth at least, because China's demographics are against them.

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You know, the curve is going down.

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They will get old before they get rich.

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That's the risk for China.

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Vietnam still has a young population, but that will change.

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Already we can project outwards the demographic change, and Vietnam doesn't have forever to escape the middle income trap.

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So definitely it's the right policy and it has to be pursued effectively.

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Vietnam won't get rich by just assembling more flat screen TVs or making clothes.

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It has to go up the value chain.

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It has to have a more complex economy, which includes technology, includes education,

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includes fintech, banking and insurance, healthcare.

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I think the government set a target that in 2030 we would have 2 million enterprises.

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Right now we have 1 million.

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But to go...

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950,000.

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Yes.

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Plus, 5 million family businesses as well.

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Yeah.

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So, I want to talk a little bit about these 5 million household businesses

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because there's a dilemma that these 5 million don't want to grow.

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They want to sustain their, you know, like keep the tradition and be comfortable with the size and the scale.

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They don't want to get bigger.

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Well, you know, I don't think all of these family businesses have to scale up, you know.

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There will be certain champions that have to grow to become internationally competitive.

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And there is room for startups as well.

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And you know, the Vietnamese are so entrepreneurial.

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It's a perfect place for, you know, a startup culture to take root.

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And it's happening.

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But some of these family businesses, you know, the fruit sellers and the people who are making, you know, bhang mi or something like that,

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they don't need to scale up and it's difficult to scale up too much.

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So some of those will continue.

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And to be honest, that's part of the charm of Vietnam.

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It's when you walk on the streets, you see people living in the streets, eating, cooking, selling.

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you know that is to lose that

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and to just have you know big chains would be a great shame

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and I don't think that'll happen so I think there's a balance

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which will be struck where some small businesses will continue maybe in the sort of the informal economy

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but where the real value will be will be in the in the formal sector

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and people will pay tax because we're now digitizing your tax system and all of that is good.

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Is there anything else you would like to talk about the private sector in Vietnam?

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Because I think it is a very interesting time to watch them now and see how they can contribute.

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And maybe this is a golden opportunity for them to grow,

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because for the first time the Politburo and the government put the emphasis on their role in the economy.

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Regulation is necessary, but we find this even in Australia.

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One regulation may be good, the second one may also be good, and the third one.

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But once you have a thousand regulations, one on top of the other, nothing happens.

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And sometimes that's the situation in Vietnam.

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So that's important is to deregulate.

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People ask me if there's some business dispute or some problem.

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Are the courts available to help resolve these things?

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Will everything be done according to law?

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And that's important as well, that businesses who are investing a lot of money, shareholders' money, feel confident that if there's a problem,

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they'll be given a fair chance to resolve that problem in front of the ports.

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What questions do you receive the most from foreign investors who are interested in Vietnam?

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Particularly with big companies, serious companies, they have an investment committee,

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which then does a report to the board of directors before they make an investment decision.

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And they need to provide a risk matrix to show, you know, these are the advantages, these are the potential benefits, these are the risks and these are how we can mitigate those risks.

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And for people like myself, that's where I can add value and I can provide advice.

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But the main advice I give Lina, and I've been saying this for a long time now is that you have to come to Vietnam.

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To do business in Vietnam is like crossing the road in Hanoi.

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You cannot plan it from the footpath.

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You have to step out into the traffic and you will get to the other side.

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That's what the Koreans and the Japanese do very well here.

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They, you know, if they have like 12 boxes they need to check to make the investment, they They check the first four boxes and then they come.

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And as they learn more about the country, they tick off all the other requirements.

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Take the first step, come to Vietnam.

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It's like crossing the road.

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And if you're crossing the road in Hanoi for the first time, you should do it with a Hanoian.

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And choosing the right partner is critically important.

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Vietnam is a relationship culture.

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It's all about trusting your partner.

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Vietnam is currently experiencing a period of strong growth, but it also faces significant challenges.

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GDP grew by about 8.02% in 2025, placing Vietnam among the fastest growing economies in the region.

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The size of the economy reached roughly $514 billion,

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with GDP per capital of around $5,000.

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The World Bank forecasts growth of 6.5% in 2026,

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while some financial institutions such as UOB project around 7.5%.

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The Vietnamese government has set a more ambitious target of around 10% growth in the midterm.

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In terms of trade and integration, Vietnam remains one of the most open economies in the world,

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with total trade approaching $900 billion.

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Major infrastructure projects currently underway include Long Thành International Airport, the planned North-South High-Speed Railway,

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and the National Expressway Network, which aims to reach 5,000 kilometers by 2030,

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with more than 3,500 kilometers already completed by 2025.

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If you were to tell the story of Vietnam, what would you tell?

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How would you tell it?

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Vietnam right now is the most interesting country in Asia.

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You are now in this amazing process of transition.

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You are reforming fast.

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You are growing fast.

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You are not waiting for the future to come to you, you're reaching out and grabbing the future.

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I think that's the story of Vietnam.

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This is a wonderful interview.

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I really enjoyed it.

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Thank you so much.

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Well, thank you again for the chance, Lena.

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I really appreciate it.

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