Luyện nói tiếng Anh bằng Shadowing qua video: Fall of Britain: Why Britain Is Collapsing Into a TRAP? ( And cant Escape) Economic case study

People in the 19th and 20th century,

Britain was so rich and so powerful that they made 20% of everything on earth,

they controlled the seas, they set the world's currency and Britain alone wrote the rules of global trade.

For 200 years, Britain was the most powerful nation in the world.

From Canada to India, from Australia to Nigeria, the British Empire once ruled over a third of the people on earth.

On top of that, they pioneered the steam engine, the factory, industrial banking, the telegraph and even the modern stock exchange.

But in 2026, that same country has had six prime ministers in just nine years.

On top of that, its bond market is on the edge, the richest residents are leaving, and its two-party system has fractured into five.

And because of this, the British government is experiencing a political and economic crisis both at the same time.

Britain's economy is under incredible strain.

Britain's debt has grown significantly since the start of the century.

Unemployment is rising, salaries are stagnating, cities are going bankrupt, and our public utilities are in dire disrepair.

Now this is not the story of an empire collapsing.

You already know how it happened in World War II.

This story is how an ultra-rich country made three policy decisions that turned it into an ungovernable country.

So the irony is that the country that once governed half of the world has a governance crisis like never before.

So the question is, how did an ultra-rich country like Britain go from a superpower to having a political crisis?

What exactly did the richest and the most experienced democracy on earth fail to see?

And what are the lessons that India and every other country needs to learn from the British crisis?

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This is a story that dates back to 2016.

By this time, Germany, America, Japan and China industrialized so fast and so heavily that Britain's share of global manufacturing output went from 20% to just 2%.

And while this decline happened steadily for 150 years, this decline was slow and manageable.

But in 2016, UK experienced the largest political earthquake in modern Europe called Brexit.

For those who don't know, the European Union was the largest free trade zone on earth.

When Britain joined in 1973, it got duty free access to 250 million customers with no customer checks and no paperwork.

So a clothing brand in Manchester could ship to Munich as easily as Birmingham.

But somehow from 2010 to 2016, the British people started to feel

that they were adding more value to the European Union than the European Union was adding value to them.

Which is why, in spite of 42% of British exports going to the EU in 2016, based on a public referendum,

the British people voted to leave the European Union.

So suddenly, that same Manchester brand needed customs declaration, VAT handling, rules of origin, paperwork, and border checks.

So for small exporters, the cost was absolutely terrible.

And because of this, Britain's GDP is said to be 6% smaller than it would have been inside the European Union.

So this costs the economy tens of billions of pounds each year.

But here's what I want you to notice.

Brexit was painful, but it wasn't the only blow.

Around the same time, three things hit Britain.

Number one, COVID hit Britain in 2020, which forced massive government borrowings.

Number 2, the Ukraine war led to sanctions on Russia.

Russia increased the oil price and it sent energy prices through the roof.

So by 2022, Britain was a country with stagnant wages, expensive energy, broken supply chain and a mountain of new debt.

Look at this, the UK public debt as a percentage of GDP increased from 50% in 2008 to more than 100% in 2020.

And this is where a weird crisis began with some power traders called bond vigilantes.

And this is where the story gets darker and scarier.

You see, in every country, there is a visible government and there is an invisible government.

The visible government is the politician that we vote for, the parliament that we see, and the debates that we see on TV.

But the invisible government includes traders, unions, lobbies, and billionaires who dictate what the government must do during the time of crisis.

In Britain, that invisible government runs on a boring word called interest.

And this instrument is so powerful that the invisible government used interest to make the Prime Minister quit.

The question is, how can bond interest topple a government and make the Prime Minister resign?

Well, long story short, the governments never collect enough taxes to pay for everything.

And this happens all across the world.

So they borrow this gap by issuing bonds.

So if a government spent £12 billion and could only raise £10 billion from taxes, the government borrows £2 billion using something called bonds.

So they say we are issuing a bond of 2 billion pounds with an interest of 3% over 10 years.

So 2 billion pounds are divided into 2000 units.

Each unit is worth 1 million pounds.

And whenever you buy a unit worth 1 million pounds, you will get 3% interest every year for 10 years.

And after 10 years, you will get your 1 million pounds back.

So bond is a promise give me 100 pounds today

and I will pay you 3 pounds a year for 10 years and then return your 100 pounds.

Now here's the trick that runs the world economy.

Bonds can be resold in the secondary market.

So if investors panic and dump these bonds in the reselling market, the price could crash from 100 pounds to 50 pounds.

But you see the bond unit will still pay 5 pounds a year.

So even though the interest is still 5%, the effective yield from the bond shoots up to 10%.

So, if the price of the bond goes down, the yield goes up.

And whenever the price goes up, the yield goes down.

Now, why does this matter for the government?

Well, that is because the government doesn't borrow once, it borrows again and again and again forever.

And the yield on this resale market sets the price of every new loan the government takes.

For example, if the yields are 2%, borrowing 100 billion pounds will cost 2 billion pounds a year in interest.

But if the yield jumps to 5%, the same 100 billion pounds will now cost 5 billion pounds.

Why?

Because if the resale market is giving investors a yield of 5%, why would the investors buy the government bond that pays 3% interest?

So the government has to consistently match the yield in the resale market to actually raise money.

Otherwise, investors won't be interested.

So when the bond price in the secondary market go down, the yield goes up.

And in this case, the government ends up paying 3 billion pounds extra every year.

Why?

Just because traders sold a piece of paper.

This is how when investors think a government is being reckless, they don't write angry letters and they don't protest.

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They simply sell.

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In fact, in September 2022, this happened in real time.

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When Liz Truss became the Prime Minister, she announced something called mini budget.

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This budget promised 45 billion pounds in unfunded tax cuts, which means the taxes were not raised for anyone.

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So no new revenue was being generated.

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At the same time, no spending was cut all of these 45 billion pounds were borrowed

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so the bond vigilantes looked at this and said this is insane

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and this is stupid so they dumped UK bonds so violently

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that yields on long dated government debt spiked from 3.5 percent to over 5% in just a few days

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so the pound crashed and the situation got so bad that the Bank of England had to make an emergency intervention

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to stop the country's pension funds from collapsing.

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In fact, a British newspaper set up a live stream of a head of Latus

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to see if Liz Truss would outlast the Latus.

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And guess what?

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She didn't.

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So 49 days after taking office, Liz Truss resigned, the plan was crapped and the Chancellor was fired.

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I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party.

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I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party.

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Now you might think this is great.

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The markets are keeping the reckless government moves in check and

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that is how the government will always end up making the right decision, isn't it?

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Well, this is where it gets nasty.

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The same traders that punished trusts are now preventing Britain from doing anything.

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Britain is now stuck in what economists call a doom loop.

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And here's how it works.

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Step number one.

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Britain already has a mountain of debt, roughly 96% of its GDP, which is the highest since its early 1960s.

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This is due to years of crises like 2008, Brexit, COVID and Russian sanctions, which left them with a mountain of debt.

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Step number two, high debt makes traders nervous, so they demand higher yields to keep lending.

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Step number three, higher yields make every new loan more expensive and the interest bill keeps on growing.

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Step number four, to pay rising interest, the government borrows more, the debt grows and bigger debt means less investment in education and healthcare.

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Step number five, bigger debt makes traders even more nervous.

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So the yields rise further, the interest rises further and the borrowing rises further.

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And this loop keeps on tightening with each passing turn.

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Now the problem is Britain is stuck in this vicious cycle because both its doors are completely locked.

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Door number one says, grow your way out, invest in the economy so that it expands and tax revenue rises.

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But investing means borrowing more and the bond market won't allow it.

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Door number two says, cut and tax your way out.

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But if you slash spending and raise taxes, that kills growth, which kills tax revenue, which makes the debt problem worse.

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On top of that, voters could revolt just like in 2024.

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So Britain is frozen where it can't invest and it cannot cut spending.

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This is why public services are crumbling.

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The NHS has record waiting lists.

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Schools are falling short of teachers.

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Local councils, the body that fund libraries, social care and root repairs, they are going bankrupt one after another.

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And you know what guys, to solve this problem, the government tried something else

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and this turned out to be utterly stupid and is causing an even bigger problem.

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Now, I don't know how many of you know this, but London forever has been the destination of the super rich.

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So whether that is Vijay Malaya or Lakshmi Mittal, all of them have always tried to settle in London for some strange reason.

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And the strange reason is nothing but a crazy policy.

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Let us understand this in simple words.

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Let's say Dimitri is a wealthy global businessman deciding where to base himself.

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He earns 1 million pounds from a local job in his new city

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and 20 million pounds a year from foreign investments back home.

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Now he has two options.

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Option number one is he moves to New York.

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Here, the US taxes its residents on worldwide income.

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So, America taxes the local income of 1 million pounds and the foreign income of 20 million pounds.

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So, the total tax bill income is 21 million pounds in America.

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At 40% federal plus state taxes, the total tax bill comes out to be 8.4 million pounds in taxes.

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And here's where it gets worse.

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If he ever takes US citizenship or a green card, the US taxes him worldwide forever even if he leaves the country.

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Option number two is he moves to London and gets a non-dom status.

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So the UK taxes the local income of 1 million pounds

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but it does not tax the foreign income of 20 million pounds.

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So 20 million pounds is tax-free income for Dimitri.

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This is as long as he keeps the money abroad.

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So if you look at his total taxable income in the UK, it's just £1 million at 45%, which comes out to be £450,000.

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That's it.

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And the other $20 million, he's not taxed on it at all.

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So while he has to pay 8.4 million pounds in the US, he only has to pay 450,000 pounds in London.

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This is how UK's tax system incentivized the richest people in the world to come

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and settle in London and this system started 226 years ago during the Napoleon times.

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This is the reason why the Russian oligarchs, the Indian industrialists and even the Greek shipping magnets got attracted to London.

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And by 2024, there were 74,000 non-doms in Britain.

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And what did they do?

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They boosted consumption, created jobs and paid a lot of taxes.

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So this is fantastic, right?

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What exactly is the problem?

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The super rich are staying in London, they are paying taxes, they're creating jobs and they're consuming a lot.

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So how is this problematic?

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Well, on 6th of April 2025, the Labour government

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abolished non-DOM with the thought that taxing the rich will make them 12 to 13 billion pounds over five years.

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Great on paper, terrible in reality.

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And the Henley private wealth migration report estimates that 16,500 million years left the UK in 2025,

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which is the largest single year outflow ever recorded.

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Now, even though the tax justice network says that the numbers could be inflated, the policy clearly drives millionaires away.

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So either way, the lesser is the same.

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When you tax the wealthy, the wealthy don't pay.

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They just leave.

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And when they move, you do not just lose taxes, you also lose spending, jobs, businesses and investments.

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And Britain may have raised 12 to 13 billion pounds on paper, but what it lost is confidence and capital.

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And while the rich were leaving, the political system itself was breaking apart.

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You know, from 1721 onwards, the British politics was a contest between two great parties, Tory or Whig, Conservative versus Liberal, Conservative versus Labour.

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This was the case for 300 years.

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But in May 2026, that ended.

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The local election results was something that nobody had ever seen.

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If you look at this table, the Reform UK had 26% vote share, Greens had 18%, Conservatives had 17%,

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Labour had 17%, Liberal Democrats had 16%.

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So all five parties were just 10 points of each other and none of them had a vote share of above 30%.

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Now why does this matter?

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Well, that is because just like India, Britain works on first-past-the-post system and whoever gets the most votes in a constituency wins.

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Now in a two-party world, the winner usually has 45 to 50%.

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But in a five-party world, a candidate can win with just 25% of the vote and win even when 75% of the people voted against them.

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By the way, in India, BJP also gets 30% votes and still wins.

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This is the political and economic crisis that UK is facing at the moment.

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And there are three lessons that every country must learn from UK and its policies.

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Lesson number one, do not punish capital before you can replace it.

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Britain abolished the non-dom status, assuming that the rich would stay and they would pay.

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India right now is building its wealth creation ecosystem like angel tax reforms, gift city and startup incentives.

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And if at any given point in time we start taxing the rich only for votes, it's going to be an economic bloodbath.

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Lesson number two.

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If you look at the interest bill, just like UK, we spend more on interest payments than on defense, education and healthcare combined.

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I repeat, India spends more on interest payments than education, defense and healthcare combined.

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And while the UK is a developed nation, we are a developing nation.

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And unless we invest very heavily into education and healthcare, we won't have the rich, let alone driving the rich people away.

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So along with interest payments, we have to keep investing in education and healthcare so that eventually we can become a rich country.

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Otherwise, we will keep falling under the burden of interest payments.

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And lastly, just like the UK, we might have to rethink the first-past-the-post system.

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We've made an entire case study on that.

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I'll attach the link in the description.

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These are the lessons that we and every other country must learn from UK and its policies.

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And I just hope in the next few years, UK recovers from these crises.

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That's all from my staff today, guys.

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If you've learned something valuable, please make sure to hit the like button in order to make YouTube ever happy.

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and for more such insightful business and political case studies

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please subscribe to our channel thank you so much for watching I will see you in the next one bye bye

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