跟读练习: Can the Tech Surge Continue? - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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This is The Markets.
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This is The Markets.
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I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Thursday, May 28th, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Pete Callahan, who is the U.S tech,
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media, and telecom sector specialist within global banking and markets.
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Pete, thanks again for taking the time.
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Thanks for having me, Chris.
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Okay, let's start with The Markets, Pete, because we've had an almost historic run in tech off the March 30th lows.
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Hasn't been as MAG-70 as we've seen in the past.
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What do you make of the rally?
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Yeah, I'd say three things stand out to me.
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One, narrow breadth.
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Two, high velocity.
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And three, anchored by earnings growth and earnings revisions.
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So what do I mean by that?
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If I look back over the last three months, the Nasdaq is up 20 percent.
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But when you look under the hood, only about half of the stocks in the Nasdaq are even up at all over that stretch.
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So you have narrow breadth, again, led by semiconductors, which are up nearly 80 percent this year.
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Best year since 1999.
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Second, high velocity.
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The Nasdaq is off to its second best start to a year in over 25 years.
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And so we've really had a really rapid rise this year in tech stock prices.
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And finally, in terms of earnings growth, if you looked at sort of AI stocks within the S&P 500, that group was about 30 up about 30 percent this year.
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Incidentally, their earnings have also risen about 30 percent this year.
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So you are seeing multiples kept in check driven by strong earnings revisions in tech this year.
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All right.
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So, you know, you pointed to those earnings.
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Let's talk about them a little bit here first quarter results
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what'd you make of it yeah it's good earnings from tech
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i think the standouts were capex right you had another big
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wave of capex revisions i think capex estimates for calendar 27 went up to 20
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so you're now looking at something like north of 900 billion dollars of capex in 2027
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so that story is still intact
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and still pushing higher i think secondly within software i would
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say results were mixed we may talk about software later
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but some good some not good but but the nice thing is you're actually starting to see some dispersion in that space, and that's been a welcome sign for investors.
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And think finally perhaps tied to
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that first point on CapEx you are still seeing relatively tight capacity across compute and in the AI supply chain.
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And in turn you're hearing companies starting to talk about visibility extending out into calendar 27 where semiconductor
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and AI infrastructure companies are starting to get orders pushing out that far given the shortages we're seeing today.
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Let me drill down to that software point because you pointed we were going to talk about it.
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I do want to talk about it
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because the software troubles even bled over into the credit markets where private credits go through a problem
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because people were worried that they had too much software exposure.
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But lately you're starting to see the software stocks working again.
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What's going on?
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Yeah, listen, the the arts have been tough this year in software, no doubt about it.
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But you are seeing dispersion in the group.
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And I think that's something that all investors, whether long-only or hedge funds, are happy to see.
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It's all about dispersion, trying to pick leaders and laggards within the group.
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So there are still debates from here.
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Investors are curious about how you think about subscription
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and seat models versus consumption models and where we may be headed over the next couple of years.
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Investors are trying to figure out
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if software is able to deploy AI at the point of sale
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or you have this sort of incumbent versus startup debate from here.
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And then, of course, the environment's been a little bit choppy to start the year.
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You have new AI budget that's getting spent across enterprises.
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We obviously had the conflict that is still ongoing.
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And so it's been a little bit of a noisy stretch, but at least investors are saying, I can pick winners and losers.
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And that's a change from what you'd seen over the last couple of years.
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It was sort of correlation one type of pressure across the group.
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And does that winner or losers in software just come down to your ability to employ AI versus your not ability?
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Frankly, yes.
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At the moment, it's whether you are able to indicate that AI is helping your business and driving faster revenue growth.
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And if it is, the market is very happy to re-rate shares.
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Yeah, it was interesting because everybody wanted to sell software because they thought they would get disintermediated by AI, which is software.
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That's exactly right.
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So the argument here is, hey, we are the companies that are actually at
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that point with all this context in an enterprise and customers will lean on us to help deploy AI for them.
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So you mentioned semiconductors having their best year since 1999.
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On the one hand, 1999 is, you know, enthusiastic as a Knicks fan.
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We're partying like it's 1999.
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On the other hand, 1999 didn't end well, even for Knicks fans.
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We're hoping for something better this year.
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Talk to us about positioning.
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Are we over our skis?
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Where are we?
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Yeah, it's a good question.
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I think for semiconductors, listen, it's been a great start to the year.
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I think any time a group's up 80% like it is in five months, there's, of course, you have sort of these momentum dynamics.
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You have too far, too fast.
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You have all that type of stuff that kind of matters over the short term.
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But I think over the medium term, what really matters is earnings revisions, right?
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And as long as you are getting earnings revisions for this group, which helps keep multiples in track, I think investors will be comfortable adding to this group on pullbacks
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or momentum unwinds or different pockets of positioning pressures that can show up, of course, when you have moves like this.
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So I think at the end of the day, just keep tracking the earnings growth, and I'll do my best to keep this group informed.
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Please, we're going to be tapping into you.
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All right, what's the trade?
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Yeah, one group we haven't talked about yet is U.S.
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Internet.
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The group, the way I cut the data, is about lagged software on the air, which is probably surprising to people.
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There's ongoing debates about sources of funds, about ongoing investment cycles, about the health of the consumer,
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and, of course, where AI in the consumer world goes over the next couple of years.
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But as of late, you're starting to see a little bit more innovation from the product side on U.S.
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Internet companies tied to AI.
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The temperature on the consumer seems to be coming down as oil prices have reset off the highs.
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And so given that backdrop and cleaner positioning, I'll be watching the U.S.
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Internet sector from here.
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All right.
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We're going to go into June, believe it or not, next week.
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What are you watching for?
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Yeah, I mean, just two things really, right?
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It's macro data.
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So you're going to get the sort of new monthly data, NFP data, and then mid-month CPI.
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And so we're just looking for the mix of jobs, data, and then of course what the inflation story is given the geopolitical conflict.
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And then otherwise in tech, we have a bunch of user conferences and things like that across software and semiconductors.
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And so I'll be looking to see how that sets the temperature and the tone on generative AI into the summer months.
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You mentioned inflation.
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Historically, tech has been correlated with rates.
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Do rates matter to tech anymore?
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They could matter.
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At the moment, the market's OK with that.
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Candidly, there's been so many cost inflation inputs into tech
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when you think about what the sort of AI supply chains had to weather in terms of input costs.
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So I think the market looks at and says in the context of everything we're dealing with to deliver this infrastructure, it's something to keep an eye on.
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But at these levels, it has not been a primary concern.
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No, it really hasn't been.
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All right.
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I'm not looking at any of those things.
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I'm just looking at Wednesday night.
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We start the NBA finals.
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So last question.
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Can the Knicks win the championship?
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Why not?
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Why not?
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All right.
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I'll take that as a rave.
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Pete, thanks so much for joining us.
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Thanks for having me.
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That does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
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I'm Chris Hussey.
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Thanks for joining us.
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The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.
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The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action,
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This material may contain forward-looking statements.
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Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations
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or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy
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or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.
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and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
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Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.
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This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part, or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.
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背景与背景信息
在这一期的节目中，主持人克里斯·哈西与技术、媒体和电信领域的专家皮特·卡拉汉讨论了科技股的近期表现与未来趋势。经过一段时间的低迷后，自三月底以来，科技股的反弹达到了近乎历史性的水平。两位专家分析了这一上涨的原因，并探讨了与收益增长和投资环境相关的各种因素。
日常交流的五个常用短语
- 股票上涨（Stock Rally） - 指股票价格的快速上升。
- 利润增长（Earnings Growth） - 公司收入的增长直接影响股市表现。
- 资本支出（CapEx） - 企业用以购置固定资产的开支，反映出其未来投资的意图。
- 市场波动（Market Volatility） - 股票价格的剧烈波动可能影响投资者信心。
- 供给链（Supply Chain） - 特别是在科技行业，供给链的稳定性至关重要。
逐步跟读指南
为了更有效地练习英语口语，建议学习者採取以下步骤，通过shadow speak技巧提升自己的听说能力：
- 观看视频：首先仔细观看相关视频，了解整体内容与语境。
- 分段播放：将视频分成小段，逐段听取，更容易理解复杂的内容。
- 模仿跟读：在听到关键短语时，停顿并尝试跟读，注意发音与语调，运用shadowspeaks的技巧。
- 重复练习：多次重复跟读，直到对每个短语都能流利表达，感受发音的韵律。
- 自我录音：录下自己的朗读，比较与原句，注意改进之处，以达到更好的shadow speech效果。
通过这种英语影子跟读的方式，学习者不仅能够提高听力，还能增强自己在日常交流中的自信与流利度。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。