Shadowing Practice: A Tale of Two Markets - Learn English Speaking with Video
Creando lección...
1
This is The Markets.
2
I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Wednesday, May 13th, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Sean Tateja,
3
who oversees the ETF and Custom Basket's Vol Options Trading Desk within Global Banking and Markets.
4
Sean, thanks so much for joining us.
5
It's always fun to be on.
6
All right, Sean.
7
SPX is up 16 percent.
8
NASDAQ's up 26 percent.
9
I think semis are up like 70 percent off those March 30th lows.
10
What's going on?
11
What happened?
12
Yeah, it's amazing because we're still in the middle of a large geopolitical conflict where oil prices are still very elevated.
13
And as you mentioned, you just look at it and S&P is up 8% on the year now.
14
NASDAQ is up about 15% or 16% on the year.
15
Semis, you know, they go up every single day, it feels like.
16
And it really feels to me like it's a tale of two markets.
17
There's the AI stocks within U.S equities and anything that's related to the AI trade, whether it's the hyperscalers, the semiconductors, the data centers, the equipment,
18
and then there's the rest of the market.
19
And the indices that you mentioned, the S&P, the NASDAQ, so much of the concentration in those is now these AI names.
20
And so we've just gone through another earning season just about here in the S&P.
21
We're about 90% of the way through, and EPS growth is tracking at plus 17% year over year,
22
which is the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
23
Now, as remarkable as that is, what's even more remarkable is
24
that the expectations for the next 12 months of EPS growth have now been ticking up to plus 13%.
25
And if you look at it, in one way, you would say, well, the S&P is up 8% year to date.
26
EPS growth over the next 12 months is up 13%.
27
So the multiple has actually compressed from 22 to 21 times.
28
So if anything, earnings are doing most of the heavy lifting.
29
Now, that's not to say
30
that a 21 times multiple is historically cheap by any metrics based on everything that's going on in the world.
31
But I think what it does show is that so much of these indices are concentrated to AI.
32
And the AI story is still fundamentally intact in terms of earnings.
33
And they're still growing at a very rapid rate.
34
Yeah, that's a great point.
35
AI is driving so much earnings.
36
It's funny, though, because going into the year, we had this call around halo stocks outperforming even the AI stocks, and it was working.
37
What happened to that?
38
You're talking about a tale of two markets.
39
What happened to the other side of the market, that halo side?
40
It's amazing because when we sat here three months ago and did this podcast at the beginning of the year, the whole theme around the market was a broadening out trade.
41
It was that the conventional leaders, U.S tech, hyperscalers, et cetera, were getting sold in exchange for more cyclical equities to start the year.
42
The view was that there was going to be above trend growth,
43
below trend inflation and a Federal Reserve who could start cutting rates as soon as the summer into a very hot economy.
44
And so a lot of our clients at the beginning of the year said in a world that has plentiful growth, we should be looking for names in the home builder space,
45
in the consumer space, which was supposed to get relief from the tax refunds
46
that were part of the one big beautiful bill last year, as well as from potentially the Supreme Court striking down tariffs, which ended up happening.
47
And there were a lot of things to get bullish on in terms of the real economy, whether it be as well the industrials, what we call the cyclical equities.
48
And what's ended up happening is you can't really see it in the price of S&P because it's so dominated by AI.
49
But there has been a real growth shock and inflation shock
50
because of how high oil prices have been because of the geopolitical conflict that we're seeing right now.
51
And so that's affected a lot of these cyclical equities.
52
And we're seeing this massive rotation back into the hyperscalers back into the AI names as people view
53
that story as more inelastic demand and able to withstand the things that the consumers aren't.
54
Because now we're in a really murky macro world where there's very high inflation
55
and we thought the Fed was going to be cutting.
56
Now we're hearing clients say that the next move might actually be a hike just given
57
that we had an extremely high PPI this morning, really high CPI yesterday, and the growth numbers are starting to deteriorate and the Fed might be a little handcuffed,
58
which is not a good setup for the rest of the economy or the real economy, we should say.
59
So square the circle there, because, you know, as you pointed out, six straight quarters of double digit EPS gains.
60
But all this ahead of us, maybe a Fed hike.
61
And as you say, the real economy actually showing some stress.
62
Are we in a bubble?
63
No, I don't think we're in a bubble.
64
And the way that I define a bubble would be you have a stock
65
or a group of stocks that go up for, call it a day, a month, a year, two years, whatever it is, on air.
66
and when the bubble pops, so to speak, they go back to the levels that they were at to start all of this.
67
And when I look at the AI complex, there are a lot of things that fundamentally are working in that complex.
68
If you look at the hyperscalers, they've committed to spend $755 billion this year in CapEx, which that number is just completely mind-blowing.
69
That's up 38% year over year in terms of CapEx growth.
70
And that's why the semiconductor earnings are always beating because there's just so much CapEx going into the trade.
71
So do I think that when things start to draw down
72
that they're going to go back to levels that we saw two years ago?
73
No, I don't.
74
But what I will say is that we have something called the GS risk appetite indicator, which is effectively a measure of how willing our clients are to take risk
75
and how willing the market is to put on risk.
76
That's at five-year highs.
77
You look at our prime book, semiconductor exposure is making new record highs every single day.
78
And so what I do think the market is underappreciating is that even in uptrends, you can have two-way volatility.
79
Things don't just go up all the time, they can also have violent corrections.
80
And we haven't really seen that.
81
And what worries me a bit more about the market right now, especially the semiconductors and AI story, is how much leverage there is in the system.
82
There are a lot of levered ETF products that have launched
83
that get you two times exposure to semiconductors or three times exposure to semiconductors.
84
And those products inherently are what we call short gamma products, meaning to keep their constant leverage on days when the underlier is up, they need to buy a bunch on the rebalance.
85
And when days when it goes down, they need to sell a lot.
86
And so the reason that worries me is as leverage increases and as positioning and exposure increases,
87
you could have a moment where something fundamental comes out that's negative and a stock should be down 3%.
88
But because of all these deleveraging forces that exist in the market, 3% can turn into 10% very quickly on the downside, just like we've seen it turn into that on the upside.
89
And I think that that's something that's underappreciated.
90
Now, does that mean that we're in a bubble because we can have a 10 or 20 percent drawdown?
91
Absolutely not.
92
But it does mean that there could be some two-way volatility in the market.
93
That's a great point.
94
When you have a forced seller in there in a leverage situation, it can exacerbate downturns.
95
Talk to me a little bit more about the AI trade then.
96
Where is it now?
97
What's the theme that you want to play in that AI trade?
98
You know, so for the past three, three and a half years, AI has been the talk of not just the U.S markets now, but even more so now recently, the international markets.
99
And when I look at the evolution of the AI trade, you know, at the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, it started with people looking for the picks and shovels, which were the semiconductors.
100
Then it kind of expanded to the people funding AI, which are the hyperscalers via CapEx.
101
And then it transitioned to the data centers, the people who are powering the AI trade, and then AI equipment.
102
So in the last six months, what's really been in trend has been memory chips.
103
Memory chips are things that have been around for decades.
104
But now that there's an AI application, there is a lot of euphoria in names that have to do with AI memory.
105
More recently, it's shifted to fiber optic cables,
106
which are effectively the cables that allow for high-speed transfer of data within these AI data centers.
107
And those are more efficient than the previously used copper cables.
108
And so this optical networking theme is up over 100% year to date.
109
Yeah, it's fascinating.
110
It's almost like walking through the AI hardware store and trying to pick out the shovels that we're short of.
111
Absolutely.
112
That's a great idea.
113
All right.
114
So what's the tray.
115
Our baskets team sees the next spinoff or the next iteration of the AI equipment trade being within liquid cooling.
116
So traditional data centers consume a lot of electricity using traditional air cooling systems.
117
Almost as much goes into cooling as it does to actually producing the AI.
118
But with liquid cooling technology you can significantly reduce by as much as 10 times the amount of electricity
119
that goes towards cooling.
120
And you can shift that more towards the power and distribution of actually fueling the AI trade.
121
And so we think that's where the puck is going.
122
The theme's up about 30 percent year to date.
123
And we're seeing that trend catch on with a lot of data centers looking for that type of equipment.
124
All right.
125
We're in the middle of May.
126
Traditionally, this is selling May.
127
Go away.
128
What are you looking for, though, over the next month or two?
129
I think the most important thing is to watch back-end bond yields.
130
So this morning, as we're talking, 30-year yields have eclipsed the 5% mark, which is a huge psychological level to even equity investors who
131
look at yields for a lot of their tech investments or a lot of their more levered equity investments, etc. And I think that,
132
again, it speaks to the tough position that we're in with rising inflation into a potentially weaker growth environment.
133
We also have about 10 to 15 percent of the earnings season left with the largest company in the United States, largest company in the world reporting earnings next week,
134
which will continue to show signs of how CapEx is being spent in the AI trade
135
and the next steps of the AI trade.
136
And then lastly, you have the U.S and China meeting this week.
137
And I think that that's really important because when you look at China equities, those have been the notable underperformer in terms of the rest of the world.
138
You've had such strong performance in Japan, Korea, Brazil.
139
And I think that a lot of investors are looking to China as are things going to open up more?
140
And are some of the China tech companies and China AI an investable story going forward?
141
And maybe we'll learn more after these meetings.
142
Yeah, three important things to look at.
143
Rates, semis, and China.
144
We will keep our eyes open.
145
Sean, thanks so much for joining us today.
146
Thank you for having me.
147
That does it for this week's episode of The Markets.
148
I'm Chris Hussey.
149
Thanks for listening.
150
The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.
151
The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action,
152
or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.
153
This material may contain forward-looking statements.
154
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
155
Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein,
156
and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.
157
Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only,
158
and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
159
A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.
160
Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.
161
This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part, or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.
162
Copyright 2026 Goldman Sachs.
163
All rights reserved.
📺 Mismo canal
C11
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C110
Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B210
Talks at GS – David Beckham on the Secret to His Success
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
C12
Will European Equities Outperform the S&P?
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
A New Way to Trade Emerging Markets
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C15
Can the Tech Surge Continue?
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B2Best Advice to Small Business Owners
Business EnglishWorking Adults
✨ Recomendar Video
C11
190 oraciones
Trading Strategist: The Prop Firm Edge Isn't Your Strategy, It's How You Manage The Accounts!
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C13
221 oraciones
The Stock Market Is Being Used as a Dumping Ground
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
247 oraciones
지금부터가 진짜 시작? 비트마인 톰 리가 코인 추가 상승을 전망하는 이유
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
117 oraciones
ICT Emini S&P 500 Review / January 03, 2023
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
235 oraciones
Watch CNBC's full interview with Mubadala's CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
39 oraciones
The Global Power Play
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C12
379 oraciones
Only 20 Stocks Are Holding Up the Market (3 Buy the Dip Stocks Outside of AI)
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
B21
85 oraciones
Significant slowdown in AI payoff could tip economy into a recession, says Apollo Global's Slok
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
B21
764 oraciones
The Youngest Self-Made Female Billionaire Behind Kalshi
Business EnglishUniversity StudentsWorking Adults
C11
122 oraciones
Fed in July: A Weaker Case for Hiking
Business EnglishDaily ConversationUniversity Students
Vocabulario y notas de pronunciación para esta lección
Este vídeo tiene 163 frases y 2297 palabras para practicar shadowing. La parte hablada dura 11:02. El hablante habla rápido, unas 208 palabras por minuto, así que espera sonidos enlazados y reducidos. Solo el 81 % de las palabras está entre las 3.000 más comunes del inglés, por lo que el vocabulario es exigente.
Vocabulario clave de este vídeo
15 palabras del vídeo que vale la pena aprender, con su pronunciación y significado:
| Palabra | Pronunciación | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| equity sustantivo | /ˈɛk.wɪ.ti/ | equidad, epiqueya |
| earnings sustantivo | ganancia, devengo | |
| semiconductor sustantivo | /ˌsɛmikənˈdʌktə/ | semiconductor |
| bubble sustantivo | /ˈbʌbəl/ | burbuja, pompa |
| exposure sustantivo | /ɪkˈspəʊ.ʒə(ɹ)/ | exposición |
| inflation sustantivo | /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/ | inflación |
| leverage sustantivo | /ˈlɛv.(ə.)ɹɪd͡ʒ/ | palanca, palanqueo |
| yield verbo | /jiːld/ | producir, dar |
| shock sustantivo | /ʃɔk/ | choque |
| liquid sustantivo | /ˈlɪk.wɪd/ | líquido |
| potentially adverbio | /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/ | potencialmente, presuntamente |
| chip sustantivo | /t͡ʃɪp/ | astilla, cepa |
| remarkable adjetivo | /ɹɪˈmɑɹ.kə.bl̩/ | remarcable, destacable |
| tale sustantivo | /ˈteɪl/ | cuento, historia |
| investor sustantivo | /ɪnˈvɛs.tə(ɹ)/ | inversionista, inversor |
Phrasal verbs que vas a escuchar
| Palabra | Pronunciación | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| end up verbo | terminar, ir a parar | |
| go up verbo | subir | |
| come out verbo | /ˌkʌm ˈaʊt/ | revelarse, salir a la luz |
| go away verbo | irse, marcharse | |
| go through verbo | atravesar | |
| point out verbo | señalar, apuntar | |
| walk through verbo | explicar paso a paso, enseñar |
Gramática en este vídeo
Las estructuras que más usa el hablante, con las palabras exactas del vídeo:
| Estructura | En el vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + participio pasado — una acción pasada que sigue importando ahora | we've just gone · has actually compressed · has been |
| Voz pasiva be + participio pasado — importa lo que ocurre, no quién lo hace | are concentrated · being spent · is intended |
| Oraciones de relativo who / which + oración — información extra sobre una persona o cosa | space, which was · indicator, which is · shovels, which were |
Pronunciación a tener en cuenta
El hablante usa 30 contracciones y formas reducidas, como we're, don't, I'm. Dilas en su forma corta, tal como las oyes.
- Los sonidos de “th”: sixth /sɪksθ/, withstand /wɪðˈstænd/
- Los sonidos de “sh” y “zh”: exposure /ɪkˈspəʊ.ʒə(ɹ)/, inflation /ɪnˈfleɪ.ʃən/, shock /ʃɔk/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, transition /tɹænˈzɪʃ.ən/
- Palabras largas — cuida el acento: semiconductor /ˌsɛmikənˈdʌktə/, electricity /ɪˌlɛkˈtɹɪsɪti/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, affiliate /əˈfɪl.i.eɪt/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/
Cómo practicar con este vídeo
- Escucha el vídeo entero una vez sin hablar y anota las palabras que no conoces.
- Empieza a velocidad 0,75×, haz shadowing frase por frase y vuelve a la velocidad normal cuando te resulte fácil.
- Grábate y compara con el original, prestando atención a palabras como equity, earnings, semiconductor.
¿Qué es la Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing es una técnica de aprendizaje de idiomas respaldada por la ciencia, desarrollada originalmente para la formación de intérpretes profesionales y popularizada por el políglota Dr. Alexander Arguelles. El método es simple pero poderoso: escuchas audio en inglés nativo y lo repites en voz alta de inmediato, como una sombra que sigue al hablante con solo 1-2 segundos de retraso. A diferencia de la escucha pasiva o los ejercicios de gramática, el shadowing obliga a tu cerebro y músculos de la boca a procesar y reproducir simultáneamente patrones de habla reales. Las investigaciones muestran que mejora significativamente la precisión de la pronunciación, la entonación, el ritmo, el habla conectada, la comprensión auditiva y la fluidez al hablar, convirtiéndola en una de las metodologías más efectivas para la preparación del IELTS Speaking y la comunicación en inglés en el mundo real.