Pratique du Shadowing: The Demographic Transition Model Explained | Geography | ClickView - Apprendre l'anglais à l'oral avec la vidéo
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- For most of human history life has been a rather brutal affair.
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Both birth rates and death rates were high, making populations relatively stable.
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With almost eight billion people alive today, our world is a very different place from what it has ever been.
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To understand the complex relationship between changes in a population as a nation develops over time, demographers can use what's called the Demographic Transition Model.
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This theory of population change describe transitions between five stages of development.
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Each stage is defined by the relationship between the birth and death rate which in turn influences the rate of growth or decline.
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These changes are based on the influences of various social and economic developments.
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Let's break these stages down in more detail.
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What we know of ancient humans tells us that around one in four infants died before their first birthday.
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As many as half of all humans died before puberty.
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With such a high mortality rate populations needed high birth rates just to survive.
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Demographers refer to this balance as Stage One of the Demographic Transition Model.
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Relatively equal rates of births and deaths means the population size is generally stable.
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A population pyramid for this stage would have a wide base and a narrow top.
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While some regions today could arguably be described as Stage One, most demographers see it as a stage in our past.
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For many countries, it began changing during the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century.
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Thanks to centuries of science, know a lot about how to keep food and water germ free, how to keep wounds from becoming infected, and how to vaccinate against many diseases.
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As people gain access to basic levels of healthcare, sanitation, and food security, the death rate falls, especially among children.
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Meanwhile, the birth rate remains high.
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While Stage One was relatively stable, Stage Two represents a population explosion.
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More children survive and have children of their own.
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Nations south of the Sahara in Africa, such as South Sudan and Nigeria, are considered to be at Stage Two of the model.
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As medicine and technology advance and more children survive, families start having fewer babies.
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Expanding populations also experience some significant cultural changes.
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There are more educational opportunities, especially for women.
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Better education leads to higher employment rates, meaning women have options other than being full-time mothers, including having a stronger say in how a community is run.
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Wealth, power, and innovation also help promote access to and use of contraception.
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These factors lead to a period of growth that's slower than before.
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Nations such as India, Brazil, and Vietnam are seen as being in this stage.
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Populations are still increasing, but at a reduced rate compared to Stage Two.
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Over time the reduced birth rate will be matched by a relatively low death rate, and the population will no longer increase or decrease.
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Stage Four of the Demographic Transition Model is when low death rates and low birth rates create a stable population.
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Most of world's developed nations such as the US, France, Canada, and Australia are at Stage Four.
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When birth rates remain below the approximate 2.1 children per woman that is necessary for keeping even the healthiest population stable, the number of people declines.
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If current predictions hold, a number of nations could soon join Japan and Germany in the fifth and final stage of the Demographic Transition Model.
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High costs of living, fear of global catastrophes, and other social pressures could see fewer people choosing to have children.
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Smaller populations might seem like a win for the environment, demanding fewer resources and leaving less waste.
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But the pressures on the economy will increase in the short term, as there are fewer young people to care for a slowly aging population.
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Nations, such as Germany and Japan, are already facing this decline.
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Other countries such as China might not be far behind.
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These nations must consider how to meet the challenges of a shrinking population.
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Croatia is another nation that could be seen as experiencing Stage Five.
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From the 1950s through the 1970s, 1980s, and to today, Croatia has represented each stage of the Demographic Transition Model.
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How countries will develop in the future is a hot topic for discussion.
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The Demographic Transition Model is useful but like all models, it has limits.
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From the devastation of wars and pandemics to surprises delivered by economic booms and new form of economics, anything could affect the population of Earth in the near and distant future.
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If you liked this video you can find it and so many more at clickview.net.
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Vocabulaire et conseils d’expression pour cette leçon
Cette vidéo contient 48 phrases et 775 mots à répéter en shadowing. La partie parlée dure 5:49. Le locuteur parle à un rythme régulier d’environ 133 mots par minute, confortable pour le shadowing. 84 % des mots font partie des 3 000 mots les plus courants en anglais ; le reste mérite d’être vu avant de commencer.
Vocabulaire clé de cette vidéo
15 mots moins courants de la vidéo, avec leur prononciation et leur sens :
- stable /ˈsteɪ.bəl/ (nom) — étable, écurie. A building, wing or dependency set apart and adapted for lodging and feeding (and training) ungulates, especially horses.
- fewer /ˈfjuː.ɚ/ — moins (de). Less; a smaller amount of something non-integral commonly expressed as an integer
- decline /dɪˈklaɪn/ (verbe) — décliner, péricliter. To move downwards, to fall, to drop.
- topic /ˈtɑpɪk/ (nom) — sujet, thème. A subject; a theme; a category or general area of interest.
- meanwhile /ˈmiːnwaɪl/ (adverbe) — pendant ce temps-là, entretemps. During the time that something is happening, often specifically in a different place.
- transition /tɹænˈzɪʃ.ən/ (nom) — transition. The process of change from one form, state, style or place to another.
- compare /kəmˈpɛɚ/ (verbe) — comparer. To assess the similarities and differences between two or more things [“to compare X with Y”]. Having made the comparison of X with Y, one might have found it…
- refer /ɹɪˈfɜː/ (verbe) — référer. To direct the attention of (someone toward something).
- economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/ (nom) — économie. The study of resource and wealth allocation, consumption, and distribution, of capital and investment, and of management of the factors of production.
- narrow /ˈnæɹəʊ/ (adjectif) — étroit. Having a small width; not wide; having opposite edges or sides that are close, especially by comparison to length or depth.
- resource /ɹɪˈzɔːs/ (nom) — ressource. Something that one uses to achieve an objective, e.g. raw materials or personnel.
- expand /ɪkˈspænd/ (verbe) — agrandir. To change (something) from a smaller form or size to a larger one; to spread out or lay open.
- innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/ (nom) — innovation. The act of innovating; the introduction of something new, in customs, rites, etc.
- define /dɪˈfaɪn/ (verbe) — déterminer. To determine with precision; to mark out with distinctness; to ascertain or exhibit clearly.
- wound /ˈwund/ (nom) — blessure, plaie. An injury, such as a cut, stab, or tear, to a (usually external) part of the body.
Les verbes à particule que vous entendrez
- care for (verbe) — soigner. To attend to the needs of, especially in the manner of a nurse or personal aide.
Prononciation à surveiller
- Les sons « sh » et « zh »: transition /tɹænˈzɪʃ.ən/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, explosion /ɛkˈsploʊ.ʒən/, prediction /pɹɪˈdɪkʃən/, sanitation /ˌsænɪˈteɪʃən/
- Mots longs — placez bien l’accent: economics /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/, innovation /ˌɪn.əˈveɪ.ʃən/, mortality /mɔɹˈtælɪti/, approximate /əˈpɹɑk.sə.mət/, sanitation /ˌsænɪˈteɪʃən/
Comment s’entraîner avec cette vidéo
- Écoutez la vidéo en entier une fois sans parler et notez les mots que vous ne connaissez pas.
- Répétez phrase par phrase à vitesse normale, en reprenant chacune jusqu’à ce que votre rythme corresponde à celui du locuteur.
- Enregistrez-vous et comparez avec l’original, en faisant attention à des mots comme stable, fewer, decline.
La grammaire de cette vidéo
Les structures que le locuteur utilise le plus, avec les mots exacts de la vidéo :
| Structure | Dans la vidéo |
|---|---|
| Voix passive be + participe passé — l’accent est mis sur ce qui arrive, pas sur qui le fait | is defined · are based · be described |
| Present perfect have/has + participe passé — une action passée qui compte encore maintenant | has been · has ever been · has represented |
Qu'est-ce que la technique du Shadowing ?
Le Shadowing est une technique d'apprentissage des langues fondée sur la science, développée à l'origine pour la formation des interprètes professionnels. Le principe est simple mais puissant : vous écoutez de l'anglais natif et le répétez immédiatement à voix haute — comme une ombre suivant le locuteur avec un décalage de 1 à 2 secondes. Les recherches montrent une amélioration significative de la précision de la prononciation, de l'intonation, du rythme, des liaisons, de la compréhension orale et de la fluidité.