शैडोइंग अभ्यास: Is The World Getting More Violent? - वीडियो के साथ अंग्रेजी बोलना सीखें
अभ्यास मोड चुनें
हर मोड पूरी स्क्रीन का अभ्यास कक्ष खोलता है।
101 वाक्य
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10 years ago, in 2014, we asked if war was over.
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Based on long-term trends in the last century, it seemed violent conflict was on the decline and the world more peaceful than ever.
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Our video began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war between Hamas and Israel.
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And, well, a decade later we could start this video exactly the same way.
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But is the world as a whole more violent today?
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In a nutshell, we made seven claims in 2014.
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One, we have less conflict deaths than ever.
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Two, there were almost no more wars between countries.
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Three, democracies don't fight each other.
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Four, borders are mostly fixed.
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Five, most conflicts are in areas that were under foreign control, either by colonial states or Soviet dictatorships.
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Six, more civil wars are ending by diplomacy.
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Seven, we're in the most peaceful period of history.
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So, let's see how our video has held up.
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First, let's get an overview of conflicts in the last decade.
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Some of the deadliest conflicts that were glowing hot in 2014 have since ended or significantly cooled down.
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The war in Afghanistan ended with the victory of the Taliban.
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While the civil wars in Yemen and Libya are all still ongoing, they turned mostly into stalemates.
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The protostate of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has been wiped out and, breaking news, the rebels just won the war in Syria last week.
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The extremely destructive civil war in South Sudan ended in a fragile peace agreement despite violence still flaring up in the devastated young country.
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Sadly, the last decade saw a bunch of new conflicts erupt or old unresolved issues turn violent.
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One of the main claims of our video 10 years ago was that wars today are not between countries, and this is still largely true.
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Civil wars are by far the most common type of state-based conflict in the world.
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We wager that most of you have never heard about one of the deadliest civil wars in decades: The 2020 Tigray war in Ethiopia.
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It ended in 2022 with the victory of the Ethiopian and Eritrean government forces against rebel groups.
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Exact death tolls are unknown but they may exceed half a million, mostly civilians.
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Aside from Tigray, a number of new civil wars have broken out since 2014, although "new" is a bit misleading since the underlying issues were brooding at a smaller scale for a long time.
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The deadliest have been the Sudan civil war, the civil war in Yemen and the civil war in Myanmar.
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Multiple nations in Africa like Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Burkina Faso and Mozambique are suffering from islamist insurgencies that destabilize countries and have cost tens of thousands of civilian lives.
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Lastly, there are nearly 60 smaller unresolved state-based conflicts around the world, many going on for decades that are smoldering but have a relatively low death toll in comparison.
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Maybe the worst news is that we've been seeing interstate wars again.
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There was the short-lived 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia which redrew contested borders.
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Then there's the latest war between Israel and Hamas that turned into a regional crisis.
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What is certainly the most disturbing new development is the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
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It's the first large-scale interstate war in 20 years and the first war since World War II where a major power is trying to conquer territory and to subjugate another state.
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It followed an 8-year conflict that started with the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas.
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Exact casualty rates for the war since 2022 are hard to verify but they go as high as hundreds of thousands.
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Okay, so what about our 2014 claims?
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If we add up the numbers, we see a few things.
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Roughly, between 2004 and 2014 there were about 350,000 deaths from state-based conflicts worldwide.
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They were going down from 2014 to 2019 and then rose sharply in 2021.
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In total, from 2014 to 2024, we saw about 1.2 million deaths.
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If we include all violent conflicts like the Mexican drug war, the number rises to 1.5 million, three times higher than the previous decade.
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Actually, 2022 had the highest death toll from violent conflict since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
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The Tigray war and the war in Ukraine alone were responsible for the majority of lives lost as both wars involved armies of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, sometimes thrown against entrenched positions in human wave attacks.
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So, the last 3 years have been unusually violent, but if we zoom out a bit more, we can put those numbers into perspective.
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A terrible thing, but nowhere near how bad it can get when the world goes to war.
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In the grand scheme of things, we are still living in relatively peaceful times, but the next decade will show if the trend will reverse or if the last few years were an anomaly.
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Unfortunately, there have been proper wars between states again so our prediction on wars between countries didn't hold up.
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What is as true today as in 2014, is that almost all armed conflicts in the world are in countries that were under foreign occupation in the 20th century, either by colonialism or by the expansive Soviet dictatorship.
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Ethnic groups were split apart or forced together by arbitrary borders, resources unequally distributed or power vacuums created, which led to conflicts that are in many cases still unresolved.
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There have also been no wars between democracies, who seem uniquely unwilling to fight each other.
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So, compared to the last century, it's still true that war between nations is still an exception rather than the rule.
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On the other hand, we see fewer civil wars end by diplomacy.
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Instead there's an increase in either victories or stalemates.
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These often aren't permanent resolutions to the conflict, only pauses in the fighting, because the underlying causes haven't been solved.
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For our claim about borders, we can see that most international borders in the world still hold up and are not challenged, but there are still a few dozen territorial disputes in the world, most of them in Africa and Asia.
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And some are getting hotter, like the border clash between India and China over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh.
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China's claim to Taiwan or Venezuela threatening to annex part of Guyana's all rich province Essequibo.
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One thing that makes wars so deadly is that they're often supported by external powers.
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Many countries are providing support or arming up different sides or factions, like the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for hegemony, with Iran being the main supporter for the Houthis, Hezbollah or Hamas.
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Or in the Ukrainian war, with the West supporting Ukraine while China, Iran and North Korea support Russia.
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But it's not just countries.
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External powers keeping conflicts alive can also be islamist groups like Isis or criminal networks.
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Or even local elites that benefit from their own country being torn apart, and effectively prevent conflicts from ending.
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There's a lot of debate among experts about what factors make the world more or less peaceful, but there are no easy answers.
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One of the major reasons the world has seen less conflict was that, after the end of the Cold War, many countries expected a sort of rules-based world order.
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And for a time this worked, somewhat.
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But things have been changing in the last few years.
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The world has become multipolar with new alliance is forming and the idea of a rules-based world is being challenged.
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China's manufacturing capacity is now as big as the US and Europe's combined.
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With its massive economic development, a new superpower has risen.
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It's common knowledge that the US spends more on its military than any place in the world, but this may no longer reflect the true balance of power.
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China doesn't report all of its military spending like the US does and it gets a lot more done with each equivalent dollar spent.
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Recent estimates trying to account for these differences tell us China's effective military budget is now a significant portion of the United States's budget.
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And with Russia breaking the taboo of launching the first war of conquest by a major power in almost 80 years, Europe has begun the process of rearming.
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It is slow because, well, Europe is slow, but it is happening.
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We're in the transition to a multipolar world again with different nations and alliances claiming spheres of power they want to dominate.
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In this climate, tensions and conflicts between states have been rising, even if most of them have not turned into wars yet.
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So, is war over?
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The clear answer is no, and the direction we're headed in doesn't seem great.
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But with all the gloom, it's also true that we are still in a peaceful period of world history and the deaths by war are still at historic lows.
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The world is at a crossroads.
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We'll do another update video in 2034.
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Let's all hope we'll have better news for you then.
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Getting reliable information is hard enough but it gets impossible to know what you can believe when misinformation and propaganda are used as yet another weapon in armed conflicts.
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It's important to seek nuanced and diverse perspectives, which is why Ground News, who's kindly sponsoring this video, is so important.
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In a nutshell, the app and website gather the world's news in one place so you can compare coverage, see the bigger picture and make informed decision.
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Take the reporting on Russia's and North Korea's recent defense treaty.
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There are hundreds of headlines on this globally, including from many sources on the ground like Korea and Russia.
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Some report it as a defense deal, others call it an alliance or strategic partnership, which creates very different images.
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The interesting insight is how most of the sources are government-affiliated, which presumably affects their choice of framing.
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Reading the news this way lets you compare different perspectives in one place, see how narratives and possibly public opinion could change.
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You also get a sense of the bigger picture and how much wait a story really carries to tell apart reason from racket.
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Go to ground.news/KiN or scan the QR code to check it out.
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With their Vantage plan you can even keep yourself in check.
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For example, your personalized My News Bias dashboard gives you insights about your potential blind spots and enables you to broaden your perspectives by actively seeking information outside your typical sources.
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Sign up through this QR code or our link below for 50% off this unlimited access plan.
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It's their biggest discount of the year, whether for yourself or as a gift.
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We think they're doing an important job, especially today.
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Check them out to get the tools to think for yourself.
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प्रस्तावना और पृष्ठभूमि
इस वीडियो में, प्रतीत होता है कि दुनिया में हिंसा के स्तर पर चर्चा की जा रही है। पिछले दस वर्षों में युद्धों की स्थिति और वैश्विक संघर्षों का अवलोकन करते हुए, यह स्पष्ट होता है कि कुछ संकेत शांति की ओर इशारा करते हैं जबकि कुछ नए संघर्षों ने चिंताएँ पैदा की हैं। 2014 में, यह अनुमान लगाया गया था कि दुनिया सबसे शांतिपूर्ण समय में है, लेकिन अब सवाल उठता है कि क्या यह स्थिति अब भी सही है। इस चर्चा में, कई महत्वपूर्ण बिंदुओं का उल्लेख किया गया है जो अंग्रेजी सीखने वालों के लिए संवाद में मदद कर सकते हैं।
दैनिक संवाद के लिए शीर्ष 5 वाक्यांश
- "क्या यह दुनिया अधिक हिंसक हो रही है?" - इस प्रश्न का उपयोग चर्चा की शुरुआत में किया जा सकता है।
- "हाल के संघर्षों पर नज़र रखते हुए, क्या हम शांति की ओर बढ़ रहे हैं?" - यह वाक्यांश आपके विचार व्यक्त करने में सहायक हो सकता है।
- "सिविल युद्ध और अंतरराष्ट्रीय युद्धों के बीच फर्क क्या है?" - यह पूछने पर आप गहरी बातचीत कर सकते हैं।
- "इस दशक में हमने कितनी नई टकराव देखी हैं?" - महत्वपूर्ण डेटा के साथ चर्चा को समृद्ध करें।
- "क्या ये समस्याएँ समाधान की ओर बढ़ रही हैं?" - इसका उपयोग विचार की गहराई में जाने के लिए करें।
चरण-दर-चरण शेडोइंग गाइड
यदि आप इस वीडियो से अंग्रेजी बोलने का अभ्यास shadowspeaks तकनीक का उपयोग करके करना चाहते हैं, तो यहाँ एक सरल गाइड है:
- वीडियो सुनें: पहले पूरे वीडियो को ध्यान से सुनें।
- महत्वपूर्ण वाक्यांशों को लिखें: ऊपर दिए गए दैनिक संवाद के वाक्यांशों को नोट करें।
- शेडो स्पीच का अभ्यास करें: एक वाक्यांश को सुनें और तुरंत उसके बाद उसे दोहराएं।
- अभ्यास करें: उन वाक्यों को तेज़ आवाज में कई बार बोलें।
- अपने उच्चारण पर ध्यान दें: यह सुनिश्चित करें कि आप सही उच्चारण और स्वर का पालन कर रहे हैं।
इन कदमों का पालन करते हुए आप अपनी अंग्रेजी बोलने की क्षमता में सुधार कर सकते हैं।
धीरे-धीरे अभ्यास करें और shadowing site पर उपलब्ध सामग्री से अपनी सीखने की प्रक्रिया को और भी समृद्ध बनाएं।
इस वीडियो का व्याकरण
वक्ता जिन संरचनाओं का सबसे अधिक प्रयोग करता है, वीडियो के असली शब्दों के साथ:
| संरचना | वीडियो में |
|---|---|
| Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — पहले शुरू हुआ काम जो अब भी जारी है | we've been seeing · have been changing · have been rising |
| Present perfect have/has + past participle — बीता हुआ काम जिसका असर अभी भी है | has held · has been wiped · have never heard |
| Passive voice be + past participle — ज़ोर इस पर कि क्या होता है, न कि कौन करता है | are mostly fixed · has been wiped · were split |
शैडोइंग तकनीक क्या है?
शैडोइंग (Shadowing) एक विज्ञान-समर्थित भाषा सीखने की तकनीक है जो मूल रूप से पेशेवर दुभाषिया प्रशिक्षण के लिए विकसित की गई थी। विधि सरल लेकिन शक्तिशाली है: आप मूल अंग्रेज़ी ऑडियो सुनते हैं और तुरंत इसे ज़ोर से दोहराते हैं — जैसे वक्ता की छाया 1-2 सेकंड की देरी से। शोध से पता चलता है कि यह उच्चारण सटीकता, स्वर, लय, जुड़ी हुई ध्वनियाँ, सुनने की समझ और बोलने की प्रवाहशीलता में काफ़ी सुधार करता है।