쉐도잉 연습: How to EASILY Create a Driver-Based Forecast (FP&A) - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

If I were to choose only one forecasting technique for all my revenue projections, I'd choose driver -based planning.

It's an incredibly versatile and effective way of forecasting

that I've used countless times in my FP &A career

and have also taught it to hundreds of other finance professionals through my in -person on -site training and online courses.

In this video, I'll break down exactly how driver -based forecasting works using a real example

and show you the step -by -step process to create your own driver -based forecast.

Let me start by explaining what driver -based forecasting actually is.

Instead of just looking at your revenue line and saying, okay, we made 2 million last year, so considering historical growth rates,

we should be able to make 2 .2 million next year.

Instead of doing that, you dig deeper.

You identify the key business drivers that actually create that revenue.

So for example, if you're a subscription company, instead of forecasting subscription revenue directly, you'd forecast things like how many new subscribers you expect,

what your churn rate will be, your average subscription price, and your marketing conversion rates.

Then those drivers naturally build up to your total revenue.

Before I show you an example, if you're looking to master driver -based forecasting and scenario planning,

then make sure you click the first link in the description to access my free course.

Now let me show you exactly how driver -based forecasting works with an actual example.

I'm going to walk you through a subscription company that wanted to forecast next year's subscriber numbers.

They started with last year as their baseline, they had about 3400 subscriptions.

Now here's where it gets interesting.

Instead of just guessing at next year's numbers, they identified the specific drivers that would impact their growth.

Things like unaided awareness increase.

That's what happens when you invest in brand advertising that gets more people to know your company name.

They also looked at direct response budget increases, which is the marketing spend that drives immediate sales.

They factored in inflation because when prices go up, it affects how willing people are to buy your product, they considered a new promotional strategy they were planning,

they even looked at what they called the do -nothing -different conversion rate changes.

Basically, over time fewer people convert from free trials to paid subscriptions even if you don't change anything.

Here's where driver -based forecasting really shines.

Instead of creating just one forecast, they built three different scenarios.

A conservative, a balanced and an aggressive scenario.

In the conservative scenario, they assumed unaided awareness would only increase by 2%.

In the balanced scenario, they bumped that up to 3% and in the aggressive scenario they went with 4%.

They did a similar exercise for each driver where they had some calculations in the background

that helped them determine what would be an optimistic versus a pessimistic scenario for each driver.

When they ran all the numbers, the conservative scenario projected about 4100 subscriptions, the balance scenario hit around 4200 subscriptions,

and the aggressive scenario came in at about 4400 subscriptions.

But here's the real power of this approach.

Let's say six months into the year, they're tracking behind their balance scenario.

They can look at each individual driver and see exactly what's not performing, maybe their direct response marketing isn't converting as well as expected,

or maybe inflation is having a bigger impact than they thought.

Because they know which driver is the problem, they can make targeted adjustments.

They might say, hey, our direct response marketing is giving us fewer additional subscriptions than we expected, so let's spend more in that channel to close the gap.

This gives you incredible agility and transparency throughout the year and updating the forecast becomes a breeze.

So why does this approach work so much better than traditional forecasting?

First, it forces you to think about what actually matters in your business.

Instead of having this laundry list of 100 different line items, you focus on the handful of drivers that really move the needle.

Second, it's the foundation for scenario planning, which helps leaders make better decisions.

When you can show them three different possible outcomes and explain what would need to happen for each one, they can make more informed choices about where to invest in their resources,

rather than having to rush and scramble when the worst case comes to pass.

Third, the model stays flexible throughout the year.

When assumptions don't pan out, you can adjust individual drivers immediately and see the projected input on your financials.

And finally, it helps you fine -tune your level of risk.

Maybe you feel comfortable being aggressive with your marketing spend assumptions, but you want to be conservative about price increases.

Driver -based forecasting enables you to quantify risk and reported transparency apparently to your board and senior leaders.

Now let's take a look at best practices for implementation.

If you want to implement this in your own organization, here are the key things to consider.

Focus on the 80 -20 rule.

Start with the 20 % of drivers that have the largest impact.

If you try to include every possible business driver, your model becomes too complex to actually influence decision -making.

Make sure your drivers are actionable.

Each one should connect to specific strategies and tactics that you can measure.

And this is crucial, you can't do proper driver -based forecasting without involving your cross -functional business partners.

You need to understand what new tactics they're planning, what resources they're going to invest and what they plan to stop doing from previous strategies.

The last thing I'll say is this, driver -based forecasting requires some business understanding.

If you're just getting started with business partnering, you might find it difficult to identify which drivers actually matter.

But that's exactly what makes this approach so valuable for developing as an FP &A professional.

Now what I've discovered here is just the foundation.

Driver -based forecasting works hand in hand with scenario planning,

and together these two techniques form what I call the most powerful planning toolkit any FP &A professional can master.

So if you want to dive deeper and learn both driver -based forecasting and scenario planning in detail,

make sure you click the first link in the description and get instant free access to my forecasting course.

In this free training, you'll learn everything you need to create efficient and accurate driver -based forecasts, how to use operational metrics to predict financial performance,

how to give leadership concrete options for proving results, and the difference between scenario planning and what -if analysis.

So again, click that first link below to get instant free access.

If you want to learn how you can become a great finance business partner, then click here.

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