쉐도잉 연습: Here's what's REALLY Happening... - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

What's up, everyone?

All right, in today's episode, I'm going to break down a shift that's occurring in the market.

It began last week, but is continuing in earnest Monday and Tuesday of this week.

In fact, if we look at the market right now as a whole, our leading gainer is up only 58%.

It's GoPro, 160 million share flow of stock, and they've got a merger catalyst, which is fine.

But the fact that our leading gainer is up only 58%, number one, and that it's a stock with 160 million share float really says something about the sentiment in the market.

So this shift has been a shift from control among buyers to control among sellers.

The point of control has shifted from the buy side to the sell side.

And so during these periods, when the sellers are in control, we as long-biased traders have to be very careful.

Now August is in the history books.

We're now starting a brand new month.

And I wanted to begin this month by exercising discipline, staying focused on trading quality over quantity,

recognizing that just a few really good trades have the power to create an incredible month.

So before we jump into everything from today and talking a little bit more about the shift that's occurring, let's take a look back at the month of August.

This is an exercise that I really encourage all of you to do in your own trading.

Whether you use TraderView, which is the software that I'm using for analyzing my trading history, or using a different platform, it doesn't really matter.

Essentially, they all do more or less the same thing.

They aggregate your trades so you can look at the data and better understand your strengths and weaknesses.

I want to look at weaknesses because those are the things that you probably should really stop doing.

And if you could stop doing them, they could potentially have a very significant impact on your profitability at the end of each week, month, and year.

So as I look back at the month of August, and by the way, let me just move this over for one second.

So if I go over to the footer of warrior trading.com, you'll see my verified earnings down here.

I'll just open that into a new tab.

And so my 2026 earnings at the end of each year, I have a audit done that audits all of my trading profits.

And by the way, our Labor Day sale is underway here at Warrior Trading right now.

So for those of you guys who have been on the fence thinking about joining, you've done a two week trial and you didn't join at that time.

check out the Labor Day sale discounts on our Warrior Starter and Warrior Pro membership.

All right.

So if I go over to 2026, you will see all of my broker statements.

So we now have August updated right down here.

And so I began this year with about $96,000 in my account.

That was my starting balance at the beginning of the year.

In fact, it's very similar to the current balance in my small account right now.

And by the end of August, I had a balance of about $2.1 million.

So the account has grown very quickly this year, which is great.

However, if we look at the month of August, you will also see a $74,000 red day and a $66,000 red day.

Those were two of my biggest red days of the entire year.

It's $130,000, $140,000 lost in two days.

Now, it's impossible to never have red days.

That's not a realistic goal to never have a red day.

But it is possible to stop sooner when the day starts going against you.

And I made the mistake on this day

and then again on this day of getting stubborn

and sort of digging my heels in and refusing to walk away

and instead continuing to trade even though everything in the market was telling me it was a bad day.

And the result was that I made my losses much, much bigger than they needed to be.

If I had stopped trading on both of those days when I was down only 15 or $20,000,

I would have an extra $100,000 of profit here by the end of August.

That's a 50% increase in my total profitability, having finished, as you can see here, after fees and commissions at around $211,000.

So increasing that by 50% up to $300,000, $311,000, that's a meaningful difference.

And the only thing I would need to do, the only thing is walk away when I'm down $20,000 and not continue trading.

None of these days where I'm green, I was down more than $20,000 before recovering to green.

So if I just stopped when I was down $20,000, that would have eliminated just some of those terrible losses.

So we're going to look at the month of August here.

Let's see, we're going to go to just the last month.

And this includes my small account challenge as well, but that's all right.

So if we look at this, I've got $287,000 of total profit right here.

Accuracy was about 65%.

Average winners were 6,000.

Average losers were 5,700.

If we compare that to the last 12 months, a bigger period of time.

You can see that my accuracy declined.

My average winners got a little bigger, but my average losers got quite a bit bigger.

So I had a few really big losses last month.

That was not good.

Let's dive a little bit deeper.

So first thing I always check is accuracy.

Is it stable, increasing, or decreasing?

It decreased.

Average winners a little bit higher.

Average losers also a little bit higher.

Okay, then I dive a little bit deeper.

Day of the week any themes anything sticking out oh right there that i'm getting absolutely crushed on fridays

this is an important observation now

if you saw this in your own trading you would i would hope make a correction

so the correction that i made

which took effect the last two fridays of august was tightening up my risk on fridays

and therefore was able to avoid having a repeat of those big big red days I had earlier in the month.

So that's one observation.

Here's another notable observation that I'm losing money between the hour of 10 and 11.

In fact, that I was making the most money between seven and eight.

Although interestingly, look at this, my frequency of trades, the most trades were between eight and nine, but I didn't produce as much profit on fewer trades.

I produced more profit between seven and eight than I produced with more trades between eight and nine.

That is very interesting.

So why is that?

I don't have an answer for why that is the case, that I did better between 7 and 8 than I did between 8 and 9.

I think that probably it is, I would probably attribute it to just the fact

that there were some really good catalysts at 7 or 7.30

that gave me a few big wins that drew the metrics higher in that window.

but let's check over a larger period of time just to see last 12 months.

How does that check out?

Does that stay about the same?

This is on $4.2 million of profit.

So it doesn't stay the same.

So in the last 12 months, I've done better between eight and nine.

So seven and eight is sort of building the cushion.

Eight and nine is really stepping it up.

And then nine and 10 is cooling off.

And then I'm losing money consistently after 10 a.m.

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So at the very least, I think we can say that after 10 AM for me is a high risk, no trade zone.

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If you saw this again in your metrics, I would hope you would draw the similar conclusion.

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So without a doubt, I do need to have a harder stop at 9.30,

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10 a.m., rather than continue to trade longer and longer into the day.

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Here's something interesting.

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When do you think I'm most likely to trade longer into the day?

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Is it on a day when things are going great?

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It's not.

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On a day when things are going great, it's very easy to walk away in the green.

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I'm more likely to stay longer on days things are not going as well because I'm feeling stubborn.

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So it's more likely that these trades were on days where I was already feeling emotionally activated.

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Okay, so performance by time of day, that's a good realization there.

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So in day of the week is also something worth noting.

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And that day of the week may also be a little more exclusive to August, you know, summer trading, but nonetheless, what about price and volume?

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So I want you guys to do the same review in your own trading.

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So where are you performing the best based on time of day day day of the week price

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and volume so price by and large between two

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and ten was a sweet spot not much between 10

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and 20 there weren't a lot of trades in that window um

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and most trades were between five and ten

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and i did quite well there not many trades below two dollars

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but i got a little profit there i did better

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when i trade a bigger share size

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that kind of goes without saying um these metrics are not super accurate i don't really know this i've I've always,

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I emailed them at one point and they didn't really give me a good answer on why the performance by, I was like, well, wait a second.

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This isn't showing all of my profitability, clearly.

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This would make it appear that I was just losing money.

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Where are the winners?

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They're nowhere to be, I don't get it.

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I don't know.

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I'm not sure what that one is, whatever.

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Okay, so then we go to instrument.

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We could look at the symbols that I made the most money on and the sector that they're in.

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We can look at the symbols I lost, the most money on and the sector they're in.

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I won't do that now just to save time, but I would encourage you to do that.

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And if you notice the theme that there's a sector you're doing well in, you should ask yourself if that theme is continuing or if that was just a little cycle during that time.

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So we did have a really nice theme with some big moves on Chinese stocks, but I think that theme is now behind us.

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I did best on stocks.

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I had more than 25 million shares of volume, as you can see here.

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More volume, more liquidity, easier to get in and out.

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Lighter volume stocks, I struggled on.

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so you know that's something to pay attention to

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and then performance by instrument relative volume did the best on stocks

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that had at least five times 500 percent five times higher

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volume on the day i traded it versus the 50-day average

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and these ones were losses now some of these were instances where i was trying to predict and anticipate

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that a stock was going to make a big move this

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is also true with some of these i got in a

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little early before it had enough volume before it had the highest relative volume

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and i can't say for for sure

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that i didn't have any success in those areas

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but generally speaking it didn't work out very well this month

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so um and then market behavior is a little bit less um less of an issue just because

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that is sort of just tied to the overall market um

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it's it's it doesn't usually have a quite strong correlation here

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and then the win-loss expectation you can see this is a roller coaster

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that i was on for the month of august and

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so this is where i said to myself i really don't want to continue

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that for the month of september i want to kind of try to smooth

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that out a little bit so well if i stop trading

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when i'm down 20 grand i'm a little more cautious on

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fridays i'm i'm careful about the time of day i'm trading

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and i'm avoiding stocks with lower relative volume those are three

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or four adjustments

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that can have a meaningful impact on my profitability they could

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actually improve my profitability by as much as 50 percent wow are there some things

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that you could do

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that could have improved your profitability by as much as 50 for last month now

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if you haven't looked at your metrics you have no idea

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so take a few minutes to look at your metrics with

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and look i have no affiliate relationship with trader view

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or anyone else i just i make recommendations based on what i I genuinely think is the best software.

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I've been using TraderView for more than a decade.

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So I've got more than 10 years of trading metrics all in this same platform.

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And, you know, look, so I've been obviously I've been using it for a long time.

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I like it well enough to continue using it.

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There's a little bit of a switching mode, which is that it's kind of hard to switch when you've got 10 years of data all in one platform.

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So I do stick with it for that reason.

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That's nearly $24 million of trading profits and showing 68% accuracy, the profit loss ratio.

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So all you have to do is go import trades, and then you could choose whatever broker you're using.

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And when you choose the broker, like you choose Thinkorswim, they walk you through how to export your trades, and then you just import them.

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And then boom, you let the import run, and then you can go and do the metrics.

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So I really encourage you guys to do this.

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Now, was August a good month for me.

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It was a good month.

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And let's just sort this by IRA.

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So this is my individual retirement account.

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Oops.

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And I'm just going to go year to date here for the IRA.

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So year to date, big picture, this was August.

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This is the year to date, right?

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So January was awesome.

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February, March, April was April was the worst. May improved.

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June was amazing.

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July slowed down a little bit, but was still set really good third best month

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and then august has kind of come back down a little

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bit closer to the baseline the baseline being around 200k a month you know a little bit below it

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but a little bit above it so that's fifty thousand dollars a week right

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so you know ten thousand dollars a day and

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that that's pretty that's pretty solid so that's where we were for august

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and now the question is what's september gonna look like is it gonna go like this

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and we're gonna finish just with a very sad end of the year

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or is it gonna go like this and we're gonna have a phenomenal finish to the year.

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We don't know.

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We don't know what the market holds for us, but what we can control is how much risk we're willing to take.

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And so I will take risk when I see good quality setups.

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So now let's talk about the shift that's been occurring in the last week or so.

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So if you recall from last week, we had a few stocks that made some pretty dramatic moves.

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So I added, I've got these slides here to add to the classes.

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So we had Archon from last week.

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That did a round trip.

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We had FTFT.

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That did a round trip.

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We had, let's see, which other ones were there?

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I feel like I added a couple others.

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But anyways, well, those two for sure.

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And then we had CRE, which did the big pop, but then pulled back.

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So we're noticing this theme where stocks are squeezing quickly, but they're not holding up.

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Now, the biotech sector, this is a biotech ETF, XBI, has done exceptionally well this year.

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It's had its best year in basically since the pandemic.

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It's been doing really well.

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This was the pandemic back here.

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So biotech has been hot.

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You had like five years where it was a little cooler, and then it's really picked up here 2025 into 2026.

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So yes, we are seeing that there's a tailwind behind a lot of these biotech companies.

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We're seeing bigger moves.

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When a biotech stock is coming out with breaking news, traders are really quick to jump on it right now.

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And, you know, I don't blame them.

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I've always loved biotech stocks.

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When you have a small biotech company that comes out with good news, this can be a make or break event for the company.

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This can be the thing that puts this company on the map

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that makes them a target for a buyout by a much larger company

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or where they keep the asset they've been developing and they start doing licensing.

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When they go through their clinical trials and then if they get FDA approval, I mean, these can be really big.

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However, a lot of these small cap companies, the way they operate is they IPO, they sell shares on the public market,

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selling the vision of what they're working on, working for a cure to some incurable disease, typically.

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And investors buy into that.

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But typically, these things are very difficult, as you would imagine, to solve for.

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And so months and years go by, and the company spends a lot of money on research and development.

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And during all of that time, they're spending the money that they raised from their initial public offering.

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And so if you look at the Q2 quarterly filing for BIAF, and we scroll down here, You can see that their cash was about $2.4 million on the balance sheet as of June 26.

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$2.4 million, that sounds like they're in pretty good shape.

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Until you look at their three months ending, June 2026, and you see that they're spending over $3.3 million.

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They've got a loss from operations every quarter.

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So that has them going out to $12 million a year.

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Well, they've only got $2.4 million on the balance sheet.

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So what are they going to do?

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Well, there's only so many things they can do.

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But notice here that they've got a shelf registration, which they just filed.

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There's a high likelihood

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that they're going to take the opportunity to sell shares on

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the open market to raise money to continue funding their research and development.

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Now, these companies will sometimes and often will solicit institutional investors.

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So go to a big institutional investor who'll just write them one big check for $50 million.

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That's easy if they can find an institutional investor

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that believes in them the institutional investor gets a discount on the stock price

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when they write the check so they'll say yeah i'll give you 50 million dollars

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but i get the stock at you know two dollars a share instead of five dollars

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and that's called a private placement and usually when

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that happens it's relatively bullish

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because obviously this investor wrote them a big check they're not

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going to need to raise money anytime soon in a direct offering on the market

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and that investor typically isn't going to turn around and and sell those shares tomorrow.

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So usually we can feel pretty confident

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that the float dynamic is going to stay basically the same for a period of time.

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The company is not going to be selling, and therefore we have the potential for a big move to the upside during

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that sort of window right after the news comes out.

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But if they can't find an institutional investor willing to write them a big check,

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then they end up having to just sell the shares on the open market.

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So on a day like today when the stock has 30 million shares of volume,

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they could be selling 3 or 4 or 5 million shares right on the market at $7 a share.

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So that could raise them $20, $30 million just by selling those shares.

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But the problem is it has a real effect on the price of the stock.

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All that selling is pushing the stock down.

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This is very common with biotech companies specifically.

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So if the news is really, really good, it can overcome the company selling into the stock price, typically.

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If the news is a private placement, and typically a private placement is also released at the same time as a fundamental catalyst.

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So they're like, we have great news and we have someone who's funding us.

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Those come out at the same time and the stock usually is very positive, goes up quite nicely.

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Those are scenarios where we can get some really clean price action.

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But in this instance, we've got a headline where they're expanding on a market.

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It seems like a kind of vague headline.

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So initially, I was like, I don't really know how well this is going to work.

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The stock ends up squeezing, but we also know they just filed a shelf registration like three days ago.

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So I was hesitant.

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and I said to myself, you know what?

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Quality over quantity.

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Having three candles going up is awesome.

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And if you can be quick, you can absolutely jump in and jump out and profit from these.

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And I often will.

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But being the beginning of the new month and having seen as many round trips as we've seen recently, I kind of wanted to just hold tight for a second.

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So it popped up to 646 and I said to myself, it barely even has half a million shares of volume.

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I don't know the volume's too light then it pushes a

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little higher drops back down pushes higher drops back down pushes

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higher drops back down was watching it right there for the break of eight

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and thought i just don't know it's a little extended you've got

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that higher volume red candle i'm gonna wait hits 8 50 then it dips down

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and that was the whole move just like that that was it

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then it rallies back up here and rejects off the double top no more no more action on that

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sells off and then coming into the open it rallies back up

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and we get to move all the way up to eight

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which was nice it pulls back then it comes back up to eight

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and then it halts uh going down right back here it was right here

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that it halted going down so it really reversed hard

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and now it's just selling off more

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so is it possible the company is selling shares

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or through an underwriter they're selling shares today it's very possible i don't know that that's what's happening but it's very possible.

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So unfortunately, BIAF is, this all ties into this shift in sentiment where we were quite bullish through June,

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July, and August, but then in August, we were seeing some tremors.

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We were seeing a few more round trips, some really dramatic round trips where we'd have a stock that squeezed up and then came all the way back down.

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And some of these were violent, five, 10-point moves, and then all the way back down.

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So it's pretty scary.

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And certainly, if you got caught on the wrong side of that, you could get completely destroyed.

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And what happened to me on some of my biggest losses in August was

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that I would miss the first move up here because it happened

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so fast and on volume that I felt was too light.

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And then I'd start jumping in it here and here and just catch these huge rejections, and I was right on the stock.

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And so today, I said, I don't want to do that on BIAF.

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If it continues higher, there might be an opportunity, but I didn't see one right here before the opening bell.

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And so I did not take any trades on this in my main Roth IRA.

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I just said, no, I'm not going to do it.

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I didn't take any trades on it in my small account either because I just didn't feel good about it.

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And then the bell rang at 930.

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And of course, we did get some continuation there after the open.

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But nonetheless, in this window here, I just said, nope, it's not happening.

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MACD went negative.

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It sells off some more.

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But the problem was that was our leading gainer.

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We look at what else was on the scans and we had SSM.

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Well, look at this chart.

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Big squeeze after hours.

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Same thing.

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You get a big pop, three candles, and then it kind of is sideways.

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And that's it.

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You get FL Fly E, whatever.

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They make electric bikes.

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All right, so price of oil is up.

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Electric bikes are hot.

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All right, whatever.

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Big pop, rejection, and now it's all on the backside, coming back down.

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So that's no good.

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RDAC, this one popped up, reversed, then comes up a little bit here.

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And so my feeling right now is that the sellers are in control.

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And that's been the shift, the shift of point of control from buyers to sellers.

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So when the sellers are in control, I've got to kind of batten down the hatches.

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I've got to trade with smaller size.

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I've got to keep light on my toes.

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And rather than assume that things are going to work, assume that they won't work.

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If it starts to work, if it starts to surprise me, then I can reconsider.

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And it's not to be pessimistic.

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It's to be realistic that the current sentiment is on the sell side.

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And so is this the time to take big risk and throw Hail Mary passes?

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And you should never really probably do that.

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But if you were going to, this certainly is not the time to do it.

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When the market's really hot and you're seeing back-to-back 300, 400, 500% moves, that might be the time to go out on a limb and take some risk.

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And I will do that.

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but it's not right now.

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So I'm going to be trading less while it's cooler, but I'm going to wait for stocks that actually prove

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that they can hold up because I'm going to assume

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that we're going to continue to see more of these pops and reversals.

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And those are layups for a short seller, right?

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And it goes up and it comes right back down and shorts win on that.

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Something like BIAF, this was probably an easy double top rejection for a short seller as it came back down

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and then rejected 8.50 again and drops back down.

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So I don't want to feed into that weakness by buying and buying and buying up at the top, buying shares that are being sold to me by a short seller.

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So I don't want to contribute liquidity to that move.

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I just want to sit completely on the sidelines.

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And more traders will do that.

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More traders will sit on the sidelines and they'll say, you know what, I'm not going to jump into this.

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Now, there are a lot of beginner traders in the market

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that in the last few months got spoiled from the big momentum of, you know, June, July, and August, and they're going to keep buying anything that pops up.

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Something spikes up and they're jumping in it.

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And they're going to realize when they keep catching these, you know, round trip huge rejections that maybe that works in certain markets, but it's not working right now.

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And I got to take my foot off the gas.

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I got to slow down.

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As they stop buying, then the moves get smaller and smaller.

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Shorts get more and more aggressive until we reach a point where the second something pops up, shorts are hammering it, and it actually ends up going red.

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In spite of having news.

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We will see that.

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There's no question about it.

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We've seen that in previous cycles.

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And then you'll have a stock where actually the news is good.

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And maybe short sellers kind of, you know, were a little overconfident just hitting it to the short side.

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And this is a company that, well, you look at their filings and they actually don't need to raise money.

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Maybe they have a shelf registration, but they've got enough cash on their balance sheet that they don't need to raise money.

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Or maybe they have a private placement, and so they're not going to raise money because of that.

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Whatever the reason is, the stock, which everyone expects will fail, goes higher.

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And now all of those shorts that have sold heavily into the bid, thinking this thing was going to roll over, now as it starts to pull away,

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are getting forced to buy back their shares.

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And so typically the way these shifts occur, they shift from cold to weak,

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sorry, from weak back to strong with one stock that makes just an exceptional move.

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It ends up going up like 500 or 700% in one day because shorts got stuck, they got stubborn, and they keep adding, thinking the market's been so strong, we've been in control.

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And then next thing you know, it's going higher, higher, higher, higher, higher.

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The problem is often I end up missing that one stock because I don't expect it either.

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And the move often ends up happening like later in the afternoon

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or even after hours where shorts kind of held it all day long, just kept thinking it was going to roll over and it just kept not.

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And then finally they're covering into the close or into after hours and they're getting squeezed.

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So I typically miss that one.

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However, all traders end up paying really close attention to what were the dynamics of that stock?

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What was the country code?

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Where was it located?

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What's the sector it's in?

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What was the catalyst?

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And they start thinking, where's the next stock that's similar?

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And that begins a round of sympathy momentum, where you have another stock that pops up that's very similar, same country, same sector.

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Shorts are nervous because they don't want to repeat what just happened on the other one.

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Longs are aggressive because they don't want to miss a big move.

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FOMO has now been ignited.

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And now you start having a wave of big moves.

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And now the point of control has shifted back into the hands of the buyers.

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And it'll stay there for a while until you have buyers

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that are so confident they'll jump on even the most mundane headlines, which really are not fundamentally material for the company.

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And the stock still goes up 50 or 100%.

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And shorts realize this is ridiculous.

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We're going to start shorting these because a lot of them are coming back down anyways.

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Even the companies are selling shares.

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And the point of control shifts a little bit more subtly where they get sort of weaker

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and weaker and weaker until people give up.

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The shift from hot to cold is much more subtle than the shift from cold back to hot, typically.

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It's not always the case.

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Sometimes the shift is a little bit subtle going from cold back to hot, but usually it's more of one big stock becomes spark that ignites the next round of momentum.

421

So that is a deep dive into the shifts that we are seeing in the market from cold to hot, back from hot to cold.

422

And right now, we've definitely seen a shift from hot to cold.

423

It's cooled off and it could stay cold for a few weeks.

424

It could stay cold for maybe just a few days.

425

We don't know.

426

Ultimately, we don't know how long it'll be before we have that one stock that surprises us.

427

And realistically, the longer it's cold,

428

the bigger the move will be when that stock does surprise us because shorts will be so confident.

429

The sellers will be in so much control.

430

They won't even think it's possible to have a a move that big.

431

So you almost have to have all the recent memory of those big moves from June

432

and July and early August be forgotten in order for the next one to occur.

433

But that also means sustaining a longer period where it's slow.

434

And during those periods, the way I trade is I just focus on trading less, trading with smaller size, getting my base hits, and not overstaying my welcome.

435

If you want to watch me doing that live every day, check out the link for the two-week trial it's pinned to the top of the comments post in the description and

436

if you want to actually become a full-fledged member well check

437

out our labor day sale labor day sales are currently active

438

here at warrior trading with special discounts on our warrior starter

439

and warrior pro membership

440

so i hope you guys check them out you can come over click the join now button

441

and you can see our membership so please check them out

442

but i'll remind you as always that trading is risky my results are not typical

443

and there's no guarantee you'll find success whether you trade on your own you learn from me

444

so please always practice in a simulator before putting real money on the line

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