쉐도잉 연습: Is Luck Random — or Can You Cultivate It? | Christian Busch | TED - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기

어려움

YouTube

쉐도잉 컨트롤

0% 완료 (0/146 문장)

On January 7, 2025, our house, my wife's parents' house and most of our neighborhood burned down to the ground.

⏸ 일시 정지

재생 속도:

반복 횟수:

대기 모드:

자막 동기:0ms

모든 문장

146 문장

On January 7, 2025, our house, my wife's parents' house and most of our neighborhood burned down to the ground.

0:04.06 – 0:12.10 (8.0s)

On that day, I was about to submit a paper to a major management conference, and like a rookie, I had left it to the last hour and was stuck in the uploading queue.

0:12.14 – 0:21.46 (9.3s)

That's when the evacuation order came in for the LA wildfires in Pacific Palisades, where we lived.

0:21.50 – 0:27.18 (5.7s)

I found myself outside hosing down the house with one hand and holding the laptop with the other, desperately trying to get that document to upload.

0:27.74 – 0:36.30 (8.6s)

At that point, I thought that was my biggest problem.

0:36.30 – 0:39.14 (2.8s)

Turns out it wasn't.

0:39.14 – 0:40.46 (1.3s)

The document did upload.

0:40.78 – 0:42.18 (1.4s)

The hosing, however, did not work, and 24 hours later, our house was gone.

0:42.22 – 0:47.26 (5.0s)

I'll never forget the firefighting planes flying so low overhead as we evacuated.

0:47.78 – 0:52.62 (4.8s)

It felt like a really bad Hollywood movie.

0:52.62 – 0:54.98 (2.4s)

My wife was pumping breast milk as we were trying to get our newborn to safety and our toddler from preschool.

0:55.02 – 1:00.74 (5.7s)

That night in the hotel, as we tried to act as normal as possible towards the kids, my then-three-year-old daughter looked up and said, "I want to go home." You know, I've researched, taught and worked on the unexpected for over a decade, and I've seen a fair share of unexpected events myself.

1:01.14 – 1:18.26 (17.1s)

But this hit on a whole new level.

1:18.30 – 1:20.38 (2.1s)

In the days that followed, I tried to focus on the things that I could control.

1:20.82 – 1:24.70 (3.9s)

And surprisingly, there were micro-moments of joy, like unexpectedly bumping into old friends in the hotel that we evacuated to.

1:24.70 – 1:31.78 (7.1s)

And that experience was an unexpected and certainly not wished-for opportunity to practice the very serendipity mindset framework that I had been working on, and that can help us navigate those kinds of situations.

1:32.62 – 1:44.02 (11.4s)

More on that later.

1:44.06 – 1:45.22 (1.2s)

But first, let's talk about bad luck.

1:45.26 – 1:47.46 (2.2s)

It all felt like really bad luck.

1:47.46 – 1:50.38 (2.9s)

But when I reflected on it, I realized it was more than that.

1:50.42 – 1:54.10 (3.7s)

It was zemblanity.

1:54.10 – 1:55.50 (1.4s)

Zemblanity is when something unlucky, unwanted or undesired happens by design because it's already built in.

1:56.02 – 2:03.90 (7.9s)

It seems unexpected and like bad luck, but in hindsight it was to be expected and avoidable.

2:04.46 – 2:10.50 (6.0s)

In our case, the wildfires and the winds were the trigger, but the real misfortune was already built into the fragile system all around us.

2:10.98 – 2:19.38 (8.4s)

There was a lack of water in the water reservoirs and hydrants, a limited pre-deployment of fire trucks in the area despite the early warnings.

2:19.82 – 2:28.30 (8.5s)

Brush wasn’t cleared in the area, and a complete lack of coordination.

2:28.34 – 2:32.22 (3.9s)

It wasn't just one thing.

2:32.22 – 2:33.86 (1.6s)

In retrospect, we realized that it was a space of infinite negative possibilities where eventually misfortune was inevitable.

2:33.90 – 2:42.70 (8.8s)

The thing is, even when you try to do the right thing, in the system around you, zemblanity can still be baked in and you get caught up in it.

2:43.38 – 2:51.10 (7.7s)

What happened to us wasn't just bad luck.

2:51.66 – 2:53.90 (2.2s)

It was a pattern that I've seen everywhere, from wildfires to boardrooms to living rooms.

2:54.26 – 2:58.66 (4.4s)

The thing about zemblanity is it’s not just out there in big systems, like in the wildfire case.

2:59.14 – 3:03.70 (4.6s)

We see the same in companies with toxic corporate cultures, where it's just a matter of time that disaster strikes.

3:03.74 – 3:09.78 (6.0s)

And sometimes even in our own minds.

3:09.82 – 3:12.30 (2.5s)

Zemblanity is when we create our own bad luck.

3:12.34 – 3:15.06 (2.7s)

Take the traveler who leaves for the airport with exactly the time it's needed to get to the airport.

3:16.06 – 3:22.26 (6.2s)

Any small unexpected thing, like a minor traffic jam, and suddenly, the flight is missed.

3:22.26 – 3:27.70 (5.4s)

Or take the old man who is told to use his walking stick.

3:28.06 – 3:31.14 (3.1s)

He doesn't.

3:31.14 – 3:32.30 (1.2s)

One day he "unexpectedly" falls down the stairs.

3:32.34 – 3:35.38 (3.0s)

It might seem surprising in the moment, but it was to be expected.

3:35.42 – 3:39.46 (4.0s)

Zemblanity seems like bad luck, but it's already built in all along.

3:39.98 – 3:44.70 (4.7s)

Now before I go deeper into this, I want to ask you a question.

3:45.42 – 3:49.58 (4.2s)

In the room, who of you considers yourself to be a lucky person, please raise your hands.

3:50.06 – 3:54.90 (4.8s)

And at home, a mental hand-raise works too.

3:54.90 – 3:57.26 (2.4s)

OK, quite the lucky room, actually, well done.

3:57.26 – 3:59.62 (2.4s)

No worries, I won't ask the unlucky ones.

3:59.66 – 4:01.62 (2.0s)

We'll focus on the lucky ones for now.

4:01.66 – 4:04.06 (2.4s)

Those of you now who said you consider yourself to be a lucky person, who of you thinks they had some sort of role in it?

4:05.02 – 4:11.74 (6.7s)

Please put all modesty aside.

4:11.74 – 4:13.14 (1.4s)

Who thinks, hands up, had some sort of role in it?

4:13.14 – 4:15.54 (2.4s)

OK, still quite a few.

4:15.54 – 4:16.74 (1.2s)

Alright, so that's interesting, right, that on one hand, we know that luck is random, but on the other hand, already Louis Pasteur told us that it may favor the prepared mind.

4:16.78 – 4:26.06 (9.3s)

In order to visualize this, let’s look at the Luck Matrix.

4:26.70 – 4:30.02 (3.3s)

The Luck Matrix shows us the four different types of luck.

4:30.06 – 4:33.26 (3.2s)

Here, on the lower left, we see bad luck.

4:33.30 – 4:36.82 (3.5s)

Bad luck is something negative, unexpected, that happens to us.

4:36.86 – 4:40.70 (3.8s)

It happens to us, you can never blame anyone for bad luck and it creates a lot of societal inequality.

4:40.74 – 4:45.74 (5.0s)

Good luck, here on the lower right, is something positive.

4:46.06 – 4:49.18 (3.1s)

It happens to us, we didn't work for it.

4:49.22 – 4:51.82 (2.6s)

Just great if it happens.

4:51.82 – 4:53.62 (1.8s)

Zemblanity is the misfortune by design that we built into fragile systems or into the pattern and habits that kind of then ultimately lead us to disaster.

4:53.66 – 5:04.62 (11.0s)

And then the thing that has driven our research for the last decade is serendipity.

5:04.62 – 5:09.62 (5.0s)

Serendipity is the active luck that depends on how we engage with the unexpected.

5:09.66 – 5:14.82 (5.2s)

Blind luck happens to us, and active luck, serendipity, can be cultivated.

5:14.86 – 5:20.06 (5.2s)

Imagine you have erratic hand movements like I do.

5:20.42 – 5:23.42 (3.0s)

Then you spill a lot of coffee, right?

5:23.46 – 5:25.30 (1.8s)

So imagine you accidentally spill coffee over the person next to you.

5:25.30 – 5:29.10 (3.8s)

That person looks at you slightly annoyed, but you sense there might be something there.

5:29.10 – 5:33.58 (4.5s)

You don't know what, you just think, oh, that could be an interesting person.

5:33.58 – 5:37.22 (3.6s)

And now you have a couple of options, right?

5:37.22 – 5:39.30 (2.1s)

One is to just say, "I'm so sorry." You walk outside and you think, "Ah, what could have happened?" Another option is you start that conversation and that person becomes the love of your life or your cofounder or you name it.

5:39.30 – 5:50.90 (11.6s)

The point is, the eventual outcome, good or bad, depends on how we engage with the unexpected.

5:50.94 – 5:56.38 (5.4s)

And that's where serendipity emerges.

5:56.38 – 5:58.26 (1.9s)

Serendipity really is this unexpected good luck that results from unplanned moments in which our actions lead to positive outcomes.

5:58.30 – 6:06.42 (8.1s)

Let's look at an example.

6:06.46 – 6:07.66 (1.2s)

In 1968, Spencer Silver was trying to develop a stronger glue.

6:07.66 – 6:13.06 (5.4s)

Accidentally, he developed a weaker one.

6:13.78 – 6:16.86 (3.1s)

Seemed useless in the moment, until a couple of years later, his colleague Arthur Fry was using that weak glue to avoid having his bookmarks falling out of his church hymnal.

6:16.90 – 6:27.46 (10.6s)

That seemed quite useful.

6:27.50 – 6:28.98 (1.5s)

The Post-it note was born and became one of 3M's major products.

6:29.02 – 6:33.70 (4.7s)

Lots of examples out there of serendipity, right?

6:34.30 – 6:36.62 (2.3s)

From Velcro to microwave ovens to how people unexpectedly find love or their apartments.

6:36.62 – 6:42.58 (6.0s)

And a lot of times also when crises become the inflection point for something in one's own life.

6:42.90 – 6:48.74 (5.8s)

The point is that over the last decade we've studied serendipity, all these different stories of serendipity, and tried to understand, is there a pattern behind that.

6:48.78 – 6:57.30 (8.5s)

And it turns out there is.

6:57.30 – 6:58.74 (1.4s)

It's always the same process.

6:58.78 – 7:00.62 (1.8s)

There is an unexpected serendipity trigger, which is random, right?

7:01.06 – 7:04.86 (3.8s)

So the coffee spill or the weak glue.

7:04.90 – 7:08.22 (3.3s)

But then we have to imbue meaning in it.

7:08.26 – 7:10.18 (1.9s)

We have to connect the dots, we have to see what could be in that moment, and then we have to materialize it, right?

7:10.18 – 7:15.66 (5.5s)

It's not enough to just think, "This could be the love of my life." You've got to actually go on dates, right?

7:15.66 – 7:20.90 (5.2s)

And so the point is, once we look at it as a process, we can influence it.

7:20.90 – 7:24.70 (3.8s)

We can first learn how to see more serendipity triggers to try to focus on what is the information hidden in this good- or bad-luck moment.

7:24.70 – 7:33.62 (8.9s)

You know, for example, asking in weekly meetings, what surprised you last week?

7:34.06 – 7:38.06 (4.0s)

Very simple question, but then people start to focus on, is there some information in this, kind of, unexpected event that has just been happening here?

7:38.06 – 7:46.10 (8.0s)

Second, we can learn how to "seed" more serendipity triggers.

7:46.14 – 7:50.02 (3.9s)

And I'm not suggesting you spill more coffee.

7:50.06 – 7:52.18 (2.1s)

There [are] other ways, one of which is, at an event like this today, to put some rich information points out there, right?

7:52.18 – 7:59.02 (6.8s)

100

When someone asks the dreaded “So what do you do?” question, saying something like, "Hey, I'm Christian Busch, I study serendipity, but what I'm really curious about is parenting, because our four-year-old just learned how to negotiate.” And so what I'm doing here is I'm giving you a couple of potential connection points where you could be like, "Oh my God, such a coincidence, our kid also -- X, Y, Z." The point is, instead of having a pitch that's unidimensional, it's giving multidimensionality and potential dots that other people can connect for us.

7:59.06 – 8:26.46 (27.4s)

101

Then third, we can learn how to better connect the dots.

8:26.46 – 8:29.46 (3.0s)

102

For example, asking ourselves in unexpected moments, "Can I still find some meaning in this?" And then last but not least, we can also learn how to act more on it because that's where we miss serendipity very often.

8:29.50 – 8:41.66 (12.2s)

103

Think back in your life to moments where you saw an unexpected opportunity in the moment, but you didn't act on it, right?

8:41.70 – 8:47.86 (6.2s)

104

So maybe it was the unexpected idea in a meeting that you didn't bring into the meeting.

8:47.90 – 8:53.86 (6.0s)

105

Or you were flirting with a person on the bus when you were still single, of course, but you were flirting with that person on the bus, and you didn't speak with them.

8:53.90 – 9:02.06 (8.2s)

106

And then you walked outside and think, "Ah, what could have happened had I?" And there's a lot of reasons that hold us back in those moments, right?

9:02.06 – 9:09.10 (7.0s)

107

But one of the major reasons is fear of rejection, right?

9:09.10 – 9:12.18 (3.1s)

108

So in my case, for example, my brain immediately goes to what's the worst thing that can happen if I do this?

9:12.22 – 9:18.30 (6.1s)

109

The sting of rejection.

9:18.34 – 9:19.62 (1.3s)

110

One thing I've realized, though, and our research shows, is that actually, once you start to realize that that is not the real worst case, that the real worst case is the regret of not having tried.

9:20.54 – 9:34.94 (14.4s)

111

That feeling of walking outside and thinking, "Ah, what could have happened?" And so what can be really useful is this idea of reframing away from “What’s the risk of doing this?” to "What's actually the risk of not doing it?" And then we realize, the risk of not doing it is a lot of times much higher than the risk of doing it.

9:34.94 – 9:51.42 (16.5s)

112

So it gives us a bias for action.

9:51.46 – 9:53.58 (2.1s)

113

Now why is this serendipity mindset, this capacity to turn the unexpected into positive outcomes so important?

9:53.62 – 10:01.26 (7.6s)

114

Well because the unexpected is everywhere, whether we see it or not, and whether we like it or not, right?

10:01.82 – 10:07.30 (5.5s)

115

The likelihood of one specific unexpected event happening is very low, right?

10:07.34 – 10:13.22 (5.9s)

116

It’s very unlikely that the lady here yells at me or the gentleman here throws a peach at me, right?

10:13.22 – 10:20.06 (6.8s)

117

That's very -- I hope that's unlikely.

10:20.10 – 10:21.94 (1.8s)

118

I mean, you never know, but it's very unlikely in itself.

10:21.98 – 10:25.98 (4.0s)

119

But when you add up all the possible unexpected things that could happen, all these infinite, unexpected things that could happen out there, it actually becomes quite likely that something unexpected happens.

10:26.50 – 10:37.94 (11.4s)

120

And that's quite scary to me as a German, right?

10:37.98 – 10:40.22 (2.2s)

121

We love planning, we love having a strategy and straight lines.

10:40.26 – 10:43.70 (3.4s)

122

And then life is a little bit more like a squiggle, right?

10:43.70 – 10:46.46 (2.8s)

123

Where unexpected events come from everywhere.

10:46.50 – 10:48.78 (2.3s)

124

And so we have to build a muscle for that.

10:48.82 – 10:50.82 (2.0s)

125

And that is true for good luck, but it's also true for bad luck, right?

10:50.86 – 10:54.90 (4.0s)

126

The same alertness to our surroundings, the ability to connect our dots that helps us nurture serendipity, can also help us guard against the impacts of zemblanity.

10:54.90 – 11:04.58 (9.7s)

127

And you know, of course, mindset is not a cure-all, right?

11:04.62 – 11:07.82 (3.2s)

128

Our research also shows that things like education, networks, safety nets play a huge role when it comes to opportunity spaces.

11:07.86 – 11:15.54 (7.7s)

129

But on the individual level, for what is at our disposal, mindset is one of the most effective tools we have to nurture serendipity and guard against zemblanity.

11:15.54 – 11:24.70 (9.2s)

130

It's not toxic positivity.

11:24.70 – 11:26.54 (1.8s)

131

It's not ignoring pain, it's not ignoring grief.

11:26.58 – 11:29.42 (2.8s)

132

It’s accepting it, it’s working with it, and then saying, "What can I still control now?

11:29.42 – 11:33.86 (4.4s)

133

What can I still focus on now?" And, you know, in our case, there was a lot of pain around losing our house, right?

11:33.90 – 11:41.46 (7.6s)

134

And that doesn't really go away that quickly.

11:41.46 – 11:43.66 (2.2s)

135

I still wake up in the morning and think, how can that happen.

11:43.70 – 11:46.78 (3.1s)

136

But alongside it, something unexpected happened.

11:46.82 – 11:49.34 (2.5s)

137

It sparked new research.

11:49.38 – 11:51.10 (1.7s)

138

It gave me a renewed sense of purpose, and it rallied the community around us.

11:51.10 – 11:55.22 (4.1s)

139

I am far closer now with my in-laws, with whom we spend much more time.

11:55.26 – 11:58.90 (3.6s)

140

And so out of the ashes, something new is beginning to grow.

11:58.94 – 12:02.86 (3.9s)

141

Viktor Frankl, who has been a great inspiration to me, once said that "everything can be taken from a [hu]man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms -- to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way." And I believe that's very true.

12:03.30 – 12:20.14 (16.8s)

142

We can't pick the fires, the storms, the crises, but we can choose how we meet them.

12:20.14 – 12:25.42 (5.3s)

143

And that choice is where serendipity begins as the unexpected starting point for a new chapter and potentially a whole new book.

12:25.82 – 12:33.14 (7.3s)

144

My hope is that we start building a world that is designing more for serendipity and guards against zemblanity.

12:33.78 – 12:41.62 (7.8s)

145

And the next time something unexpected happens to you, may serendipity be with you.

12:41.62 – 12:46.34 (4.7s)

146

Thank you. (Applause)

12:46.34 – 12:48.66 (2.3s)

쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법

쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.

ShadowingEnglish에서 효과적으로 학습하는 방법

영상 선택: 자연스럽고 명확한 영어가 사용된 YouTube 영상을 선택하세요. TED Talks, BBC 뉴스, 영화 장면, 팟캐스트, IELTS 모범 답변 영상이 좋습니다. URL을 복사해서 검색창에 붙여넣으세요. 짧은 영상(5분 이내)과 실제로 관심 있는 주제부터 시작하는 것이 동기 유지에 효과적입니다.
먼저 듣고 내용 이해하기: 처음에는 1배속으로 그냥 듣기만 하세요. 아직 따라 말할 필요는 없습니다. 문장의 의미를 파악하고, 화자가 어떻게 단어를 강조하고, 소리를 연결하고, 쉬어 가는지 주목하세요. 내용을 이해한 후 쉐도잉 연습을 하면 효과가 훨씬 좋아집니다.
쉐도잉 모드 설정:
- Wait Mode (대기 모드): +3s 또는 +5s를 선택하면 한 문장이 재생된 후 자동으로 잠시 멈춰서 따라 말할 시간을 줍니다. 직접 컨트롤하고 싶다면 Manual을 선택해서 Next를 눌러 진행하세요.
- Sub Sync (자막 동기화): YouTube 자막이 오디오와 맞지 않을 수 있습니다. ±100ms로 조정해서 정확한 타이밍에 따라갈 수 있도록 맞추세요.
소리 내어 쉐도잉하기 (핵심 연습): 이것이 연습의 핵심입니다. 문장이 재생되는 순간——또는 일시정지 중에——크고 자신감 있게 소리 내어 따라 하세요. 단순히 단어를 읽는 것이 아니라, 화자의 리듬, 강세, 음의 높낮이, 연음 방식을 그대로 흉내 내는 것이 중요합니다. 목표는 화자의 '그림자'처럼 들리는 것입니다. Repeat 기능으로 같은 문장을 여러 번 반복해서 자연스럽게 입에 붙을 때까지 연습하세요.
난이도 높이며 꾸준히 연습: 한 구절이 편해지면 더 도전적인 수준으로 올리세요. 속도를 <code>1.25x</code> 또는 <code>1.5x</code>로 높여 빠른 언어 반사 신경을 훈련하세요. Wait Mode를 <code>Off</code>로 설정해서 연속 쉐도잉을 하는 것이 가장 고급스럽고 효과적인 모드입니다. 매일 15~30분씩 꾸준히 연습하면 몇 주 안에 눈에 띄는 변화를 느낄 수 있습니다.

☕ 커피 한 잔 사주기

ShadowingEnglish는 여러분의 지원 덕분에 100% 무료로 운영됩니다. 서버 및 AI 유지 비용이 많이 듭니다. 여러분의 커피 한 잔이 큰 힘이 됩니다! ��

PayPal로 기부하기

ShadowingEnglish.com – 영어 쉐도잉 연습

쉐도잉(Shadowing)으로 원어민처럼 영어를 말하세요. YouTube 영상을 한 문장씩 듣고 따라 말하며, 진짜 발음과 유창성을 키우세요. IELTS 학습자들이 선택한 방법.

쉐도잉 연습: Is Luck Random — or Can You Cultivate It? | Christian Busch | TED - YouTube로 영어 말하기 배우기

이 영상을 통해 말하기 연습이 필요한 이유는?

문맥 속 문법 및 표현

일반적인 발음 함정

쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법

ShadowingEnglish에서 효과적으로 학습하는 방법