跟读练习: Is Luck Random — or Can You Cultivate It? | Christian Busch | TED - 通过YouTube学习英语口语
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On January 7, 2025, our house, my wife's parents' house and most of our neighborhood burned down to the ground.
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146 句
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On January 7, 2025, our house, my wife's parents' house and most of our neighborhood burned down to the ground.
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On that day, I was about to submit a paper to a major management conference, and like a rookie, I had left it to the last hour and was stuck in the uploading queue.
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That's when the evacuation order came in for the LA wildfires in Pacific Palisades, where we lived.
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I found myself outside hosing down the house with one hand and holding the laptop with the other, desperately trying to get that document to upload.
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At that point, I thought that was my biggest problem.
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Turns out it wasn't.
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The document did upload.
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The hosing, however, did not work, and 24 hours later, our house was gone.
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I'll never forget the firefighting planes flying so low overhead as we evacuated.
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It felt like a really bad Hollywood movie.
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My wife was pumping breast milk as we were trying to get our newborn to safety and our toddler from preschool.
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That night in the hotel, as we tried to act as normal as possible towards the kids, my then-three-year-old daughter looked up and said, "I want to go home." You know, I've researched, taught and worked on the unexpected for over a decade, and I've seen a fair share of unexpected events myself.
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But this hit on a whole new level.
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In the days that followed, I tried to focus on the things that I could control.
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And surprisingly, there were micro-moments of joy, like unexpectedly bumping into old friends in the hotel that we evacuated to.
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And that experience was an unexpected and certainly not wished-for opportunity to practice the very serendipity mindset framework that I had been working on, and that can help us navigate those kinds of situations.
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More on that later.
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But first, let's talk about bad luck.
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It all felt like really bad luck.
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But when I reflected on it, I realized it was more than that.
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It was zemblanity.
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Zemblanity is when something unlucky, unwanted or undesired happens by design because it's already built in.
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It seems unexpected and like bad luck, but in hindsight it was to be expected and avoidable.
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In our case, the wildfires and the winds were the trigger, but the real misfortune was already built into the fragile system all around us.
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There was a lack of water in the water reservoirs and hydrants, a limited pre-deployment of fire trucks in the area despite the early warnings.
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Brush wasn’t cleared in the area, and a complete lack of coordination.
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It wasn't just one thing.
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In retrospect, we realized that it was a space of infinite negative possibilities where eventually misfortune was inevitable.
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The thing is, even when you try to do the right thing, in the system around you, zemblanity can still be baked in and you get caught up in it.
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What happened to us wasn't just bad luck.
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It was a pattern that I've seen everywhere, from wildfires to boardrooms to living rooms.
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The thing about zemblanity is it’s not just out there in big systems, like in the wildfire case.
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We see the same in companies with toxic corporate cultures, where it's just a matter of time that disaster strikes.
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And sometimes even in our own minds.
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Zemblanity is when we create our own bad luck.
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Take the traveler who leaves for the airport with exactly the time it's needed to get to the airport.
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Any small unexpected thing, like a minor traffic jam, and suddenly, the flight is missed.
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Or take the old man who is told to use his walking stick.
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He doesn't.
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One day he "unexpectedly" falls down the stairs.
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It might seem surprising in the moment, but it was to be expected.
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Zemblanity seems like bad luck, but it's already built in all along.
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Now before I go deeper into this, I want to ask you a question.
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In the room, who of you considers yourself to be a lucky person, please raise your hands.
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And at home, a mental hand-raise works too.
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OK, quite the lucky room, actually, well done.
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No worries, I won't ask the unlucky ones.
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We'll focus on the lucky ones for now.
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Those of you now who said you consider yourself to be a lucky person, who of you thinks they had some sort of role in it?
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Please put all modesty aside.
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Who thinks, hands up, had some sort of role in it?
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OK, still quite a few.
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Alright, so that's interesting, right, that on one hand, we know that luck is random, but on the other hand, already Louis Pasteur told us that it may favor the prepared mind.
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In order to visualize this, let’s look at the Luck Matrix.
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The Luck Matrix shows us the four different types of luck.
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Here, on the lower left, we see bad luck.
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Bad luck is something negative, unexpected, that happens to us.
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It happens to us, you can never blame anyone for bad luck and it creates a lot of societal inequality.
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Good luck, here on the lower right, is something positive.
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It happens to us, we didn't work for it.
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Just great if it happens.
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Zemblanity is the misfortune by design that we built into fragile systems or into the pattern and habits that kind of then ultimately lead us to disaster.
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And then the thing that has driven our research for the last decade is serendipity.
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Serendipity is the active luck that depends on how we engage with the unexpected.
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Blind luck happens to us, and active luck, serendipity, can be cultivated.
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Imagine you have erratic hand movements like I do.
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Then you spill a lot of coffee, right?
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So imagine you accidentally spill coffee over the person next to you.
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That person looks at you slightly annoyed, but you sense there might be something there.
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You don't know what, you just think, oh, that could be an interesting person.
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And now you have a couple of options, right?
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One is to just say, "I'm so sorry." You walk outside and you think, "Ah, what could have happened?" Another option is you start that conversation and that person becomes the love of your life or your cofounder or you name it.
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The point is, the eventual outcome, good or bad, depends on how we engage with the unexpected.
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And that's where serendipity emerges.
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Serendipity really is this unexpected good luck that results from unplanned moments in which our actions lead to positive outcomes.
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Let's look at an example.
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In 1968, Spencer Silver was trying to develop a stronger glue.
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Accidentally, he developed a weaker one.
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Seemed useless in the moment, until a couple of years later, his colleague Arthur Fry was using that weak glue to avoid having his bookmarks falling out of his church hymnal.
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That seemed quite useful.
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The Post-it note was born and became one of 3M's major products.
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Lots of examples out there of serendipity, right?
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From Velcro to microwave ovens to how people unexpectedly find love or their apartments.
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And a lot of times also when crises become the inflection point for something in one's own life.
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The point is that over the last decade we've studied serendipity, all these different stories of serendipity, and tried to understand, is there a pattern behind that.
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And it turns out there is.
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It's always the same process.
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There is an unexpected serendipity trigger, which is random, right?
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So the coffee spill or the weak glue.
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But then we have to imbue meaning in it.
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We have to connect the dots, we have to see what could be in that moment, and then we have to materialize it, right?
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It's not enough to just think, "This could be the love of my life." You've got to actually go on dates, right?
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And so the point is, once we look at it as a process, we can influence it.
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We can first learn how to see more serendipity triggers to try to focus on what is the information hidden in this good- or bad-luck moment.
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You know, for example, asking in weekly meetings, what surprised you last week?
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Very simple question, but then people start to focus on, is there some information in this, kind of, unexpected event that has just been happening here?
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Second, we can learn how to "seed" more serendipity triggers.
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And I'm not suggesting you spill more coffee.
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There [are] other ways, one of which is, at an event like this today, to put some rich information points out there, right?
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When someone asks the dreaded “So what do you do?” question, saying something like, "Hey, I'm Christian Busch, I study serendipity, but what I'm really curious about is parenting, because our four-year-old just learned how to negotiate.” And so what I'm doing here is I'm giving you a couple of potential connection points where you could be like, "Oh my God, such a coincidence, our kid also -- X, Y, Z." The point is, instead of having a pitch that's unidimensional, it's giving multidimensionality and potential dots that other people can connect for us.
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Then third, we can learn how to better connect the dots.
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For example, asking ourselves in unexpected moments, "Can I still find some meaning in this?" And then last but not least, we can also learn how to act more on it because that's where we miss serendipity very often.
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Think back in your life to moments where you saw an unexpected opportunity in the moment, but you didn't act on it, right?
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So maybe it was the unexpected idea in a meeting that you didn't bring into the meeting.
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Or you were flirting with a person on the bus when you were still single, of course, but you were flirting with that person on the bus, and you didn't speak with them.
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And then you walked outside and think, "Ah, what could have happened had I?" And there's a lot of reasons that hold us back in those moments, right?
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But one of the major reasons is fear of rejection, right?
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So in my case, for example, my brain immediately goes to what's the worst thing that can happen if I do this?
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The sting of rejection.
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One thing I've realized, though, and our research shows, is that actually, once you start to realize that that is not the real worst case, that the real worst case is the regret of not having tried.
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That feeling of walking outside and thinking, "Ah, what could have happened?" And so what can be really useful is this idea of reframing away from “What’s the risk of doing this?” to "What's actually the risk of not doing it?" And then we realize, the risk of not doing it is a lot of times much higher than the risk of doing it.
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So it gives us a bias for action.
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Now why is this serendipity mindset, this capacity to turn the unexpected into positive outcomes so important?
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Well because the unexpected is everywhere, whether we see it or not, and whether we like it or not, right?
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The likelihood of one specific unexpected event happening is very low, right?
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It’s very unlikely that the lady here yells at me or the gentleman here throws a peach at me, right?
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That's very -- I hope that's unlikely.
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I mean, you never know, but it's very unlikely in itself.
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But when you add up all the possible unexpected things that could happen, all these infinite, unexpected things that could happen out there, it actually becomes quite likely that something unexpected happens.
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And that's quite scary to me as a German, right?
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We love planning, we love having a strategy and straight lines.
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And then life is a little bit more like a squiggle, right?
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Where unexpected events come from everywhere.
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And so we have to build a muscle for that.
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And that is true for good luck, but it's also true for bad luck, right?
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The same alertness to our surroundings, the ability to connect our dots that helps us nurture serendipity, can also help us guard against the impacts of zemblanity.
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And you know, of course, mindset is not a cure-all, right?
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Our research also shows that things like education, networks, safety nets play a huge role when it comes to opportunity spaces.
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But on the individual level, for what is at our disposal, mindset is one of the most effective tools we have to nurture serendipity and guard against zemblanity.
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It's not toxic positivity.
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It's not ignoring pain, it's not ignoring grief.
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It’s accepting it, it’s working with it, and then saying, "What can I still control now?
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What can I still focus on now?" And, you know, in our case, there was a lot of pain around losing our house, right?
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And that doesn't really go away that quickly.
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I still wake up in the morning and think, how can that happen.
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But alongside it, something unexpected happened.
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It sparked new research.
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It gave me a renewed sense of purpose, and it rallied the community around us.
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I am far closer now with my in-laws, with whom we spend much more time.
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And so out of the ashes, something new is beginning to grow.
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Viktor Frankl, who has been a great inspiration to me, once said that "everything can be taken from a [hu]man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms -- to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way." And I believe that's very true.
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We can't pick the fires, the storms, the crises, but we can choose how we meet them.
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And that choice is where serendipity begins as the unexpected starting point for a new chapter and potentially a whole new book.
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My hope is that we start building a world that is designing more for serendipity and guards against zemblanity.
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And the next time something unexpected happens to you, may serendipity be with you.
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Thank you. (Applause)
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背景与情境
在2025年1月7日，演讲者经历了一场突如其来的大火，烧毁了他们的家和大部分邻居的房屋。在这一切发生时，他正面临着向一个重要管理会议提交论文的紧迫要求。在疏散命令到达之际，他努力尝试在上传队列中完成这一任务。这次经历不仅让他重新审视了“坏运气”的真实含义，还引出了他关于生活中意外事件的深度思考。通过反思，他意识到，有时看似不幸的事件其实是可预见的，“zemblanity”（宿命论）为这类事件提供了一个新的视角。
日常交流中的五个常用短语
- 非常糟糕的运气 (really bad luck) - 用于描述遭遇的不幸。
- 意外的机会 (unexpected opportunity) - 指在不利条件下获得的意外收益。
- 微小的快乐时刻 (micro-moments of joy) - 在困境中的小确幸。
- 不幸的模式 (pattern of misfortune) - 描述重复出现的不幸事件。
- 应该预见的事件 (expected events) - 指本可以预防或预测的情况。
逐步影子跟读指南
要有效提高您的英语口语能力，您可以遵循以下影子跟读（shadowing）策略，特别适用于观看YouTube学习英语的练习：
- 选择视频：选择与您兴趣相关的TED演讲视频，像本次“运气是随机的吗？还是可以培养？”
- 听一遍：首次观看时，专注于内容，理解演讲者的情感和观点。
- 分段跟读：每当演讲者说出一句重要的短语，如“非常糟糕的运气”，暂停视频，尝试模仿他们的发音和语调。
- 重复练习：多次重复跟读，利用影子跟读的方法，增强对发音的掌握。
- 录音反馈：将自己的声音录下来，与原始视频进行对比，审视自己的进步。
通过上述方法，您不仅可以提高您的英语口语表达能力，还能增强您在日常交流中的自信心，促进雅思口语练习的能力提升。因此，尝试利用这类影子跟读技巧，定期观看相关内容，从而更好地掌握英语对话和交流的艺术。
什么是跟读法？
跟读法 (Shadowing) 是一种有科学依据的语言学习技巧，最初开发用于专业口译员的培训，并由多语言者Alexander Arguelles博士普及。这个方法简单而强大：您在听英语母语原声的同时立即大声重复——就像是一个延迟1-2秒紧跟说话者的影子。与被动听力或语法练习不同，跟读法强迫您的大脑和口腔肌肉同时处理并模仿真实的讲话模式。研究表明它能显着提高发音准确性，语调，节奏，连读，听力理解和口语流利度——使其成为雅思口语备考和真实英语交流最有效的方法之一。
如何在ShadowingEnglish上有效练习
- 选择您的视频： 挑选一段语音清晰、自然的YouTube视频。TED演讲，BBC新闻，电影片段，播客或雅思口语范例都很好。将URL粘贴到搜索栏中。从较短的视频（短于5分钟）以及您真正感兴趣的内容开始——兴趣是最重要的导师。
- 先听，理解上下文： 第一次听的时候，将速度保持在1倍速并仅仅倾听。还不要尝试重复。专注于理解其含义，收集新词汇，并注意讲话人如何强调单词，连读声音及使用停顿。
- 设置跟读模式：
- 等待模式：选择
+3s或+5s——在每句话播放完毕后，视频会自动暂停以便您有时间大声重复它。如果您想完全控制并在每次重复后由您自己点击下一步，请选择手动。 - 字幕同步：YouTube字幕有时会在音频前或后略微出现。使用
±100ms使它们完美对齐以助您准确跟读。
- 等待模式：选择
- 大声跟读（核心练习）： 这是真正发生改变的一步。当一个句子播放出来立刻——或在暂停期间——大声、清晰且自信地重复出来。千万不要只是张张嘴：要模仿说话者的准确节奏、重音、音高和连读。力求听上去就像说话者的影子，而不仅是逐字背诵。使用重复功能多次练习同一个句子，直到感觉自然为止。
- 提高难度： 当练习段落变得相对舒适后，就去挑战自我。将速度增加至 <code>1.25x</code> 或甚至 <code>1.5x</code> 以训练高速语言反射。或者将等待模式调整为 <code>关闭</code> 以进行连续跟读——这是最进阶同样收益最大的模式。持续的每日15–30分钟的练习将可以在几周内产生可见的效果。