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Good morning all.

After a spectacular night, thank you Warren.

And I'm going to be asking some questions as usual

and we will go to the audience a little bit later so get your questions.

Warren, I'm going to start unusually with current events

because last week you announced that you were buying the fifth largest auto insurance auto dealership in the country,

Van Tile Group of Phoenix.

Now there may even be some people in the audience who think of the car business as ethically challenged,

but at any rate what I'd like you to do is spend a

a paragraph or two talking about what by Buffett standards is a good business.

And then go into why does the car dealership business look like a good business to you?

A good business is the one that earns a high rate of return on tangible assets.

Very simple.

That's pretty simple, yeah.

And the very best businesses are the ones that earn a high rate of return on tangible assets and grow.

But even ones that don't grow, if they are in a high return on tangible assets, and then of course if you don't pay too much,

they can be a good investment.

They're a good business to start with by the high returns.

If you pay too much for them, you can turn a good business into a bad investment.

But if you pay an appropriate price, you can do all right.

Now the big mistake which we made in the early years was to try

and buy a bad business at a really cheap price.

And it took me about 20 or 30 years to figure out that wasn't a good idea.

But this is the car dealership business, if run well, can be a very good business.

You have no receivables to speak of.

You floor plan your inventory.

You can lease your real estate.

We don't do that well, only 95 % of our real estate.

So you can have very little capital actually invested in the business.

And you do a large volume, Van Tile, which we bought, has 78 dealerships.

They'll average over $100 million a dealership.

So you can work on fairly narrow margins

and still earn a high return on capital if you don't tie up much capital into $100 million a business.

And how many car dealerships are there in total in the United States?

There are over 17 ,000 car dealerships in the United States.

And the interesting thing is if you go back 40 or 50 years, there were in the 30 ,000.

So while the country has grown dramatically, and actually the number of nameplates in the car business have grown,

you've cut the dealerships almost in half.

So the average dealer now does far greater volume than when I was growing up.

Well, by all means, visit a Berkshire Hathaway car dealership in the next year and report back.

Now, Ed, let's go from that to some entirely different industry, the big banks of the United States.

Right.

And the question of whether they are good businesses and the question of what's happened to that in the last few years.

Are they as good a business as they were a few years ago?

No, no. The banks earn on assets.

They don't earn on net worth.

You know, you calculate it eventually as to what they earn on equity or net worth.

But assets are the earning factors and they've changed the rules

so that you have to have more net worth per dollar of assets.

And obviously, if you have more net worth per dollar assets and you're earning a constant amount on assets, your earnings on net worth go down.

Now, they were ungodly profitable, the better ones were, back 15 years ago or 10 years ago even,

when they had high ratios of assets to net worth.

And some of them even cheated in terms of having even more assets than the regulators would have allowed.

And you had these CIVs, as they were called, Citigroup had a whole bunch of them.

So they were off balance sheet ways of even controlling more assets.

But all of that sort of thing has been terminated

and now they've got much lower limits as to the assets to net worth ratios.

And the bigger the bank, to some extent, the bigger the bank, the lower that ratio can be.

So what was a very profitable business has been turned into a good business if executed well.

It's a pretty simple business.

I mean, you get your money cheap, very cheap.

Wells Fargo will have a trillion dollars roughly or close to

that of depositors money and it's probably costing around 10 basis points now.

Most people think you get a trillion dollars of money and pay a tenth of 1 % for it,

would find some way to do something profitable.

But the banks have always gotten in trouble on the asset side.

They've never gotten in trouble on the liability side basically.

But they really haven't gotten in trouble too much on the expense side.

But they go crazy occasionally on the asset side.

And what they do is they start copying what their dumb competitors are doing.

That happens in every business, but that's particularly virulent in the banking business.

John Stumpf once said, he said,

I don't know why we keep looking for new ways to lose money when the old ones were working so well.

But they do, and they copycat.

That's a great danger in any business.

I warn our managers against it all the time.

If anybody comes to me and says we want to do this because the other guy is doing it,

you know, I say go back to square one and come up with a better reason.

But human nature is such that you do want to do what others are doing.

I one time was at a director's meeting where a leading property casualty insurance manager, a very well -known guy,

was making a presentation to buy a life insurance company.

He was going through all these kind of silly reasons why they should do it.

And he realized that the crowd was kind of catching on to the fact these reasons were too good.

So finally, he just threw up his hands and said, said, oh, all the other kids have one.

And basically, there's a lot of business decisions made because all the other kids have one.

OK, now let's move to the stock market, a subject of great interest to everyone here, I'm sure.

Over the years, you've generally been reluctant to frame a big cosmic position on the stock market.

I've done it about five times.

I know.

But I think last spring, if I'm remembering correctly, and correct me if I'm not, you said that stocks were either greatly expensive or really cheap.

Right.

What would you say now about stocks?

And in answer, you might also mention what people are now calling the Buffett standard.

I didn't even know that.

A statistical comparison that

Fortune has used and promoted over the years.

And tell us how things rank there.

Well, I did use in a talk I gave 15 years ago at Sun Valley and got reprinted in Fortune,

a standard of total market capitalization to GDP.

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And that, I use that because it showed at that time how extreme things had gotten.

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I think they'd gone from like, yeah, they'd gotten from 40 % of GDP, which had been kind of standard over the years.

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They'd gotten up to like 170 % or something.

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So it wasn't designed to be a fine tuning type of valuation, but it showed things that really changed in a big way.

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A very high percentage of the time, stocks are in what I call a zone of reasonableness.

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This is not something, you know, we all know that pi is 3 .14159,

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and little kids can sometimes give it out to hundreds of decibel places.

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But the stock market is not like that.

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There's a range of reasonableness, and most of the time throughout my lifetime, it's sold in the range of reasonableness.

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That range changes over time as earnings accumulate and interest rates change and all that sort of thing.

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There's only been about five times in my life,

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I think, that I've actually spoken out publicly to say it was outside the range in one direction or another.

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The most recent one being in October, I was early in October of 2008, and I said stocks were cheap,

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and I wrote an op -ed in the New York Times.

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But I'll probably have some chance once every five or ten years to make a definitive statement.

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There is a big zone of reasonableness.

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Anybody thinks they can pinpoint it is crazy.

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It's not that precise.

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And fortunately, you don't need to.

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If you buy good businesses at reasonable prices and hold them, you're going to make a lot of money.

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And that's true of stocks as a group.

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It's true of individual companies.

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So you're saying that right now they are in a zone of reasonable.

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They are in a zone of reasonable.

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Okay.

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Okay.

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All right.

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We're going to move sharply to another direction, to politics.

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A question of very great interest to this audience.

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Is Hillary going to run?

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Now, let me give you a background on Hillary, because in 2008, Warren promised support to both Hillary and Barack Obama.

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And then when he found out that he'd done that sort of, he said, well, okay, I'll just be a bigamist.

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So he did back both of them.

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The only time I've been a bigamist.

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And so, okay, tell us, is Hillary going to run?

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Hillary's going to run.

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Hillary's going to run.

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How soon is she going to announce it?

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She's going to announce it as late as possible.

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Uh -huh.

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Well, how late is, late as possible?

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Well, I'm giving a direct quote.

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Okay.

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All right, next question.

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Who's going to be your opponent?

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Who would you get?

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I don't know.

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The interesting thing is that

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Romney's getting more interested.

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Right, right. But it...

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Her opponent will be whoever wins the Republican primary, and there's going to be a lot of people who want to do it.

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Well, some people say that if Jeb Bush runs, that Mitt Romney won't.

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Do you believe that's the case?

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I think once they have the political bug, anybody will run that they think has a chance, and who thinks they can raise the money?

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Okay.

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That's called the Buffett's Law.

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Now, final question on that.

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Is Hillary going to win?

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Hillary's going to win.

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Yeah.

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Well, I know...

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I've heard just in the last few days that some of the political pundits like Ed Rollins are saying that,

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that it really, that it is going to be true.

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I will bet money on it.

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I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah.

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You will bet money.

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I don't do it that easily.

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Anybody in the audience who would like to come on the other side of Warren Buffett,

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I want to tell you it's not too good a deal.

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We did that on silver one time.

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I was selling short and you were buying on silver.

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That was right.

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Okay, now a business issue that is constantly in the press is the security of corporate data.

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Has Berkshire had, or have you had personally, any security problems?

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I don't have anything to hack.

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I'm the only person without any email.

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So that, and I'm groping here to pull out my, this is the latest I've gotten in technology.

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Gee, this is my little...

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I really feel kind of with it, carrying that around.

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I don't know how to use it, understand, but I like to pull it out on occasion just to impress people.

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And wasn't there an occasion where you didn't look at it for kind of a year?

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Well, there was a famous case where during the Lehman weekend, I received a call on Saturday night.

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I was in Edmonton, Alberta, very late at night.

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And, well, I first arrived there for a social event at 6 o 'clock

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and I got a call from Bob Diamond of Lehman, or Bob Diamond of Barclays who was trying to buy Lehman.

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And they wanted, the British government had just told Lehman, or told Barclays, I'm sorry, told Barclays they could not buy Lehman

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and expose themselves to a loss of greater than 3 billion pounds without getting shareholder approval.

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And they would need at least a month to get shareholder approval.

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So Bob Diamond said to me, what would you charge to ensure all the parties doing business with us,

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that their contracts would be fulfilled between when we make the deal

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and when we have a chance to have a shareholders vote approving it, which would have been at least 30 days, probably 60 days.

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And I said, well, I've never heard of a contract like this.

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How much do you want the indemnity before?

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He said, I want it to be unlimited.

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Well, unlimited was not a great word in the fall of 2008.

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So I said, I'm going to this party.

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I'll come back about midnight.

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Fax me how much you'll pay, how you'll define the terms of the contract.

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But tell me how much you'll pay and I will get back to you no matter what hour it is.

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This is a couple of hours later in New York and I'll let you know whether I'll do it.

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So I went to the party and I came back at midnight and there was no fax.

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I went down to the desk and I said, where's the fax?

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And they said, we don't have a fax.

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So I stayed up for another hour or two.

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Finally, I gave up. That was September 2008.

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In July of 2009, I was going to Sun Valley.

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And we got off the plane, and I opened this very modern contraption I have in my pocket.

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And it said, message waiting or something like that.

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And I don't know how to work that part of it.

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So I gave it to my daughter, who's here.

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And I said, tell me what this message is on here.

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And so she pulled it up and handed it to me, and I started listening.

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And she started talking to me.

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I said, quiet, I'm trying to listen to this.

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And it turned out that it was a message from that night in September

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telling me that they would call me on Sunday, and we'd try to work out all this thing.

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So if you really want to know the story of why Lehman failed.

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Well, wasn't there...

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Send smoke signals to me if you have anything important to say.

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So you haven't had any security problems.

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I don't think Merkshire has had any security problems.

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How about, didn't your wife lose her credit card?

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Won your first wife lose her credit card once?

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Oh, yeah.

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Oh, yeah.

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Yes.

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When my first wife lost her credit card, I made no attempt to get it back because the guy was spending less than she was.

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OK. So OK.

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Okay, now one other current event issue,

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a fascinating trial is going on in Washington in which AIG's former CEO,

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Hank Greenberg, is contending that Washington's regulators not only acted wrongly in 2008 in taking over AIG,

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That was right after Lehman failed, but also wrongfully imposed onerous conditions on AIG,

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charging at sky -high interest rates, for example.

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What's your opinion about the issues in that trial?

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Well, I know certain aspects of it.

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I don't know others.

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We had been looking at AIG over that same weekend when I was up at Edmonds, and I came back.

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And AIG had first engaged us.

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Well, they tried to engage us numerous times.

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They first engaged us on Friday, preceding my going to Canada for that social affair.

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And on Friday, I went down to the office on Friday night,

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and they faxed me a whole bunch of material on the property casualty operations of AIG.

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They also had a lot of life operations, and unfortunately they had AIG financial products, which had a whole lot of derivative operations.

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That was at the parent, toward the parent company.

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And I had to know whether the property casualty company's been contaminated by any cross guarantees between AIG Financial Products, and they assured me they hadn't.

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So I went to the office and they sent me all this material.

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And I looked at it for about an hour, and then I called Bob Wilmstedt and I said,

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look, don't waste your time on me because there is no way

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that I can come up with a number that'll be of any help to you

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and besides i can't make i i wouldn't be sure of

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that number even because it's such a mess of spaghetti basically and uh

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and don't you know you've got to you've got to come up with a solution by early next week

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so spend your time on somebody else

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but nevertheless they kept pulling in another fellow a jeep chain

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and on sunday he was working on everything

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so we had some vague picture of it

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and then i got a call on either monday

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or tuesday from tim geithner who i never met before and tim said that they were contemplating lending $85 billion,

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the New York Fed was, to AIG.

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And in my opinion, was there enough in the way of value there to warrant such an $85 billion loan?

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And I said, nobody could know.

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Under the circumstances of that day, there wasn't anything that was worth $85 billion or anything like it.

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I mean, it was total chaos.

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But I thought that if they had staying power and if there weren't things there that I didn't know about,

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which there could be, probably the underlying subsidiaries would bring $85 billion in a normalized market.

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And that was that.

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I would say this, that it's been proven that in a stabilized situation

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where people were not worried about the survival of AIG because the government was behind it,

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those subsidiaries have been proved to be worth a lot more than $85 billion.

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But I will also say this, if the New York Fed had not put the money in within 24 hours,

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unquestionably AIG would have been walking over to a federal judge's quarters with a petition of bankruptcy.

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They were gone and they did not, they had a downgrade coming on their credit, where they would have had to put up way more collateral

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on a bunch of things they'd done in the financial product subsidiary.

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So they were totally gone.

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Now, it's up to a judge to determine the propriety of all these things.

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But the one thing I'm clear on is that there would have been,

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AIG would have been in bankruptcy the activity of the New York Fed within 48 hours of when Gettner called me.

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I see, so that's a big central point.

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Well, it's a central point, but there's questions about the terms and all of that which are going to be adjudicated, or being adjudicated right now.

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And I just don't know the law on that.

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But there was no other option for AIG at that point.

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And there was nobody that would have lent them the money

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or invested on terms that were twice as onerous as the ones imposed by the New York Fed.

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It was, for those of you who may have missed the main show in 2008, it was a period like we've never had it.

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And one of the things during a period like that, it really is like the fog of war.

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I mean, if you're Paulson or Bernanke, you know, or Sheila Bearer, the, you're getting reports from all these different fronts.

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Some of them are somewhat inaccurate, you know, some of them have a bias to them based on what the parties want you to do.

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It is total mass confusion.

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And, on the other hand, you have to navigate through it.

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And you have to navigate through it to some extent in cooperating with other people, particularly Congress.

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And it was an ungodly, I've never seen anything like it.

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I don't think I'll ever see anything like it again.

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And I give great credit to Paulson and Bernanke and Geithner

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and Sheila Bear for what I give credit to President Bush for the way they handled it.

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You can criticize what might have been done leading up to it.

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But when Pearl Harbor happened, they did the right thing.

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And my final question here, what about the political deadlock in Washington?

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Do you see any hopes?

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Do you see how we get out of that?

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Well, we'll get out of it somehow because we, you know, I always say that buy stock in a business that's

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so good that an idiot can run it because sooner or later one will.

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Now, if you want to, you can make a mental jump on that over to governments and so on.

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We do have a country that works over time.

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I mean, it's an unbelievable, and it will continue to work.

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It will get people, we had a civil war here in this country.

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We have all kinds of problems in the past.

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But this country, it's unbelievable what's happened since 1776 and the game isn't over.

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So I'm an optimist about it getting solved.

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But if you asked me how it was going to happen, I would say I don't have the faintest idea.

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It's a terrible situation, whether it's in a family, in a business, in a government,

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when a significant portion of the people involved don't even really want to succeed, they want the other person to fail.

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And that's a, you never want to bring that, you know, into any activity.

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I mean, but a significant percentage of people in Congress really want the president to fail.

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Right.

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And that is not good for the country and we'll get past it one way or another.

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But it has been a pretty ugly show in recent years.

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But don't ever do it.

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That should not affect in any way your business decisions.

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Charlie Munger and I have been making stock decisions and business decisions one way or another together now for 55 years.

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We have never let, well, the macro doesn't enter into it, nor does political.

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We have not made decisions differently because one party or the other's in power.

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We have not made decisions based on whether we thought interest rates were going to go up

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or down or what was going to happen with labor negotiations someplace.

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You don't want to give up what you know how to do

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because of opinions which which you don't know whether right or not and which are going to be transitory in any event.

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So you really go out there every day and do whatever makes the most sense.

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So when we buy the auto dealerships last week, we don't factor in anything about the Fed, about the deadlock in politics,

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about what's going on around the world.

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Those are all important things, but they don't affect whether those dealerships, which we're buying to own 100 years,

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they don't affect whether they're going to make money in the year 2024 or 2034 or 2035.

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And the important thing is whether we get a good business with good management at a sensible price.

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Now, let me turn to the audience where it's always hard to see up here.

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But if you'll raise your hand, other people will help me.

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Anything over here?

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Hi, Warren.

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It's Catherine Keating from JPMorgan.

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I want to ask you about your view on the economy.

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You know, a lot of economists have claimed coming out of the crisis that we have a prolonged period of slower growth.

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And yet you're investing in car sales, home sales, trains, transportation, things deeply sensitive to the economy.

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I'd love to hear your view about where you see us today.

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Yeah.

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Since the fall of 2009, five years ago now, we have seen both in our own businesses, and we've got 75 or more businesses.

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We've really got a lot more than that, but it's because some of them own other ones.

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But we're across the board in everything.

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We're now in planes, trains, and automobiles, among other things.

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But we're in all kinds of businesses and they interact with all kinds of businesses.

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We have seen since 2009 really a rather steady, not at the rate people hope, but a rather steady increase in business right straight through.

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We've heard talk and you've heard talk during that period about double dips and all these things and acceleration.

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We have not seen it accelerate much or decelerate much ever from say a 2 % or they're about rate.

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And that's what we see today.

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And we see it whether it's in freight car loadings, we see it in all kinds of ways.

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Automobiles have been better than I would have anticipated.

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Housing has been worse than I would have anticipated.

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But overall, the economy has been moving forward now for five years.

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Now, it's moving.

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from a position that, you know, they talk about having eight or nine recessions since World War II and how we've come out of them faster.

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This was way, way, way different than any other recession we've had post -World War II.

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This was a recession where virtually everybody in this room and around the country was actually scared for a while.

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I mean, people go through recessions and they're unpleasant and all that.

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But people literally, they took

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Treasury Bill rates down to a negative rate.

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Now

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when you were willing to take less money from a treasury bill than you would get from putting money under your mattress,

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that is a different phenomenon in economics from what we've experienced.

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So you've had the American people be paralyzed by fear and coming out of that paralysis.

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And the gain has been really, I think, quite satisfactory.

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You'd love to see it faster.

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And let me point out one other thing.

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We talk about 2 % of your gains now and everybody says that's terrible, you know, and it's not our potential and everything.

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The population is probably going to grow a little less than 1 % a year.

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So if you have 2 % real gains, that means in a generation,

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in 20 years, you will have greater than a 20 % per capita gain in real GDP.

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Now real GDP is about $54 ,000 per person in the United States.

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If you get a 20 % real gain per capita, that's $10 ,000 per person,

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more per capita income in the United States in one generation.

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That's fantastic.

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I mean, it may not be as good as we did in some of the decades after

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World War II, but if you go back in history, centuries went by without getting anything like that.

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And 20 % gain, how would you like to have that distributed somehow evenly across the population?

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You'd be rid of all poverty and everything else.

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So even at our present rates of gain, this country is turning out more and more stuff per capita year by year,

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and it will continue to do so.

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We have a marvelous machine, and it has worked extraordinarily since 1776.

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In my lifetime, I was born in 1930, in my lifetime, the real GDP per capita in the United States has increased six for one,

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one person's lifetime.

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I mean, nothing like it's ever happened.

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And it isn't because we're smarter, and it isn't because we work harder, it's because we have a system that unleashes human potential.

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And, you know, just look at the people in this room.

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I mean, you know, you have more potential than you thought you had ten years ago or twenty years ago.

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You certainly have more potential than your parents thought you had.

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So it just, it just, and you will find ten years from now,

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you have a, that you had a lot more potential than you thought you had today.

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I mean, and you're gonna get a chance to use it in this country.

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You know, you're not condemned to a life that, you know, that was ordained by what your parents did before you or something.

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It's a wonderful, wonderful system.

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And it's still working and it will keep working.

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Here.

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Hi, Jenny Johnson with Franklin Templeton Investments.

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How do you know when to throw in the towel on an investment or a business?

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When to throw in the towel on an - On investment or a business. Or business?

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Yeah, well, what you know, you're doing too late.

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I've done, I went in the textile business by accident in 1965, and I threw in the towel about 20 years later.

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And that was about 20 years too late.

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There's a great tendency to want to hold on, justify old decisions.

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I mean, that's a human trait.

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And when you really know you've got a bad business is when you have a good manager and you're getting bad results.

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I mean, when you're getting bad results with a bad manager,

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you still have to examine the question of whether you can get better results if you get a better manager.

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Usually you can't.

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I've said in the past that

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when a management with a reputation for excellence encounters a business with a reputation for bad economics,

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it's the reputation of the business that remains intact.

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And I've proved that many times.

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There are businesses that are just plain tough.

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And there may be too many competitors, but there's reasons why they don't drop out.

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There's reasons, well, we started out in textiles.

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And we made over half of the linings for men's suits in the country.

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And we went through World War II and got awards

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and Sears Roebuck named us their supplier of the year and all of that sort of thing.

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And then we'd say, well, we'd like to increase the price of.

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of these linings a quarter of a cent a yard in Sears.

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You must be out of your mind.

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There's ten other guys that will sell it to us at the old price.

423

And nobody ever went into a Sears store and said,

424

I'd like a blue serge suit with a half -away lining.

425

It didn't exist.

426

We had no connection to the consumer.

427

And there are lots of lousy businesses.

428

And there's lots of wonderful businesses.

429

And my job over the years has been to try and figure out which is which, and I've made plenty of mistakes.

430

I bought a company called Dexter Shoes in the early 90s.

431

I paid $400 -plus million for it, and it made a lot of money before I bought it.

432

But, you know, as soon as I bought it, they pulled some switch or something, and it immediately started losing money.

433

And it was because of foreign competition, so on.

434

Or it was maybe because I owned it, I don't know.

435

And it went to zero.

436

And the worst thing was that I paid for it in stock.

437

So that $400 million in stock I gave at the time is now worth about $5 billion.

438

So every time Berkshire stock goes down, I feel a little bit better because of my opportunity loss on this business.

439

But, you know, when I looked at Dexter's Shoe, they had a good position in retailers.

440

They turned out good shoes.

441

They had a great workforce, all kinds of things.

442

But I just forgot one thing, that they weren't going to make shoes in the United States anymore.

443

So you make mistakes, and it does pay to recognize quickly when you've made them.

444

If you've got a good person running a business and it isn't making any money, you're in the wrong business.

445

And you've got to face up to that.

446

And on her, I think the other half of the question was about investments.

447

Do you have any rule of thumb about when you give up on or when you realize it?

448

Well, again, I mean, I love it when the things we buy go down.

449

I mean, I just, I get euphoric, you know.

450

Stocks are down today, and I'm buying more of something I was buying yesterday.

451

I'm buying it cheaper.

452

Now, when you go to the grocery store and you buy something cheaper than you bought it the day before, you think that's terrific.

453

But people with their stocks, they think that the stock knows more than they do.

454

So that they, when the stock goes down, they say the stock is telling them something, you know.

455

And what it's telling me is I can get more for my money.

456

But they take it as kind of a referendum on themselves, you know, and it's me versus the stock.

457

If it ever gets back to what I paid, I'm gonna sell it.

458

The stock doesn't care what you paid.

459

I mean, you have to remember, the stock doesn't even care that you own it.

460

You are nothing to the stock.

461

That stock is everything to you, you know.

462

And you remember you paid $10 .13, and therefore the stock should get to $10 .13 before you sell it.

463

You know, the stock has no feelings about you.

464

I hate to disillusion you on this, but it just doesn't care.

465

And so the only question with every stock every day, and you don't do it this frequently,

466

is can I get more for my money someplace else?

467

You've got a chance to be in thousands and thousands of great businesses, and their prices change all the time, so their relative valuations change.

468

And you can make the exchange at very low cost these days, commissions or nothing.

469

So you can always shift from one business to another.

470

You have a huge advantage over Andrew Carnegie.

471

When he was in the steel business, he was in the steel business, or Rockefeller was in the oil business.

472

He could not shift over immediately to retailing or something like that.

473

You can rearrange your business empire, which you own through that little portfolio that you have.

474

You can rearrange that at a moment's notice with practically no cost.

475

It's a huge advantage, which people turn into a disadvantage.

476

There is nothing about the price action of the stock that tells you whether you should keep owning.

477

What tells you whether you should keep owning

478

it is what you expect the company to do in the future versus the price at

479

which it's selling now compared to the other opportunities of businesses

480

that you think you know equally well and make that same comparison.

481

And that's all there is to owning stocks.

482

Question?

483

Back there in the back, are there two hands up together?

484

Well, okay.

485

I'll let you choose back there.

486

Hi.

487

You said obviously this recovery's been a little, you know, bumpy, and some industries have done well, and some not so well, like home building.

488

Many have articulated that for us to really see the full potential of our economy growing, home building's going to have to recover.

489

Do you agree with that, and what does that look like for you, and what do you think the catalyst is to get us there?

490

Home building, you said earlier that it had lagged.

491

Yeah.

492

And the question is, what do you think about home building and whether, how much of a problem is this?

493

Well, it's come back some, but it's come back at a pace way less than I would expect.

494

Now we over built like crazy in 2004, 5 and 6, we were building a couple million units.

495

And basically it ties in with household formation.

496

And household formation falls off dramatically.

497

in a recession, at least initially.

498

I mean, if you look at 2009, I believe the household formation, you know, was almost flat.

499

People just, they put plans on hold.

500

But that doesn't last long, you know.

501

Hormones kick in, you know, and in -laws get tiresome too.

502

So, in the end, you know, if people keep behaving as they have since Adam and Eve,

503

you will have household formations in this country.

504

And you will not have them all wanting to live with their in -laws or some of that.

505

They will want to have their own homes or apartment units.

506

Now, we've had more of a bulge in apartment units than we have at homes.

507

I mean, there can be some movement between people's preferences

508

within whether they want to live in an owner -occupied home or in an apartment.

509

But so far in this recovery, and we're in the carpet business, we are the largest home builder in the United States.

510

We own a company called Clayton Homes.

511

It actually will turn out about 30 ,000 homes this year.

512

But it's lagged significantly the rate of gain I would expect, considering everything else that's happened in the economy,

513

and considering how low interest rates are.

514

I mean, you know, everybody in this room should get a 30 -year mortgage now.

515

And you get the mortgage, if it turns out interest rates go lower, you call it off.

516

If they go higher, you don't call it off.

517

You've got the option.

518

It's an incredibly attractive instrument for the, you know, it's a 30 -minute instrument if you've been wrong on interest rates,

519

and it's a 30 -year instrument if you've been right on interest rates.

520

And I can't get that one -sided instrument at Berkshire Hathaway.

521

I can only get it for a mortgage.

522

So you would think that people would be lining up now to get mortgages to buy a home.

523

And it's a good way to go short the dollar.

524

I mean, there's all short interest rates.

525

It's almost a no -brainer.

526

But so far, home construction pickup has been slower than I would anticipate.

527

But I have a lot of faith in hormones.

528

And I don't really think that their impact will be less five or ten years from now.

529

So we will have a catch up period.

530

We've had the catch up period going on in autos at a much faster pace, I think, than most people anticipated.

531

I mean, we're going to have close to a 17 million car year here.

532

And I would not have guessed we'd have a 17 million car year at the same time

533

that we have houses moving at the rate they are.

534

It'll improve.

535

But I've been wrong on the timing so far, so I'll probably continue to be wrong.

536

Well, I'm afraid the clock is telling us that our time is up.

537

And I hope we'll give

538

Warren a great hand for both speaking and singing to us.

539

Thank you.

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이 레슨의 어휘와 말하기 포인트

이 말하기 레슨은 영상 “Warren Buffett On Investment Strategy”을(를) 바탕으로 합니다. 이 영상에는 섀도잉할 문장 539개와 단어 6474개가 있습니다. 말하는 구간의 길이는 37:59입니다. 화자는 분당 약 170단어로, 일상 대화에 가까운 자연스러운 속도로 말합니다. 단어의 86%가 영어에서 가장 많이 쓰이는 3,000단어에 속합니다. 나머지는 연습 전에 미리 확인해 두세요.

이 영상의 핵심 어휘

영상에 나오는 익혀 둘 만한 단어 15개를 발음, 뜻과 함께 정리했습니다.

단어	발음	뜻
earn 동사	/ɝn/	벌다
automobile 명사	/ˈɔː.tə.məˌbil/	자동차, 차
recession 명사	/ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/	불황, 후퇴
instrument 명사	/ˈɪnstɹəmənt/	계기
reputation 명사	/ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/	평판, 명성
mortgage 명사	/ˈmoɹ.ɡɪd͡ʒ/	저당, 저당권
ratio 명사	/ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/	비, 비율
profitable 형용사	/ˈpɹɑ.fɪ.tə.bl̩/	유익하다, 유리하다
towel 명사	/ˈtaʊ̯əl/	수건, 타월
anticipate 동사	/ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/	예상하다
shareholder 명사	/ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/	주주
percentage 명사	/pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/	백분율, 백분비
economics 명사	/ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/	경제학
occasion 명사	/əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/	기회, 경우
versus	/ˈvɝsəs/	대

영상에 나오는 구동사

단어	발음	뜻
go down 동사		내려가다
come back 동사		돌아오다
give up 동사		항복하다
go back 동사		돌아가다
go out 동사		나가다
go up 동사		올라가다
hands up	/hæn(d)ˈzʌp/	손들어!

따라 말해 볼 만한 문장

영상에 나오는 짧고 완결된 문장으로, 일상 대화에서 그대로 쓸 수 있습니다:

What would you say now about stocks?
Who's going to be your opponent?
Do you believe that's the case?
How about, didn't your wife lose her credit card?
What's your opinion about the issues in that trial?

이 영상의 문법

화자가 가장 많이 쓰는 문형을 영상 속 실제 표현과 함께 정리했습니다.

문형	영상 속 표현
현재완료진행 have/has been + -ing — 전에 시작해 지금도 계속되는 동작	have been making · has been moving
조건문 if + 절, will/would + 동사 — 조건과 그 결과	if Jeb Bush runs, that Mitt Romney won't
현재완료 have/has + 과거분사 — 과거의 일이 지금도 관련이 있을 때	has grown · you've cut · they've changed
수동태 be + 과거분사 — 누가 하는지보다 무슨 일이 일어나는지에 초점	were called · has been terminated · has been turned

주의할 발음

화자는 don't, I'm, you've 같은 축약형과 약화된 형태를 174번 사용합니다. 들리는 대로 짧게 발음하세요.

“th” 소리: nevertheless /ˌnɛvɚðəˈlɛs/, thumb /ˈθʌm/, tenth /tɛnθ/
“sh”와 “zh” 소리: recession /ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/, reputation /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/, ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/, shareholder /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/, casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/
긴 단어 — 강세 위치에 주의: automobile /ˈɔː.tə.məˌbil/, reputation /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/, subsidiary /sʌbˈsɪ.di.əɹ.i/, anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/, casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/

한국어 화자가 어려워하는 소리:

/f/ — ㅍ(/p/)으로 바꾸지 말고 윗니를 아랫입술에 대기: lifetime /ˈlaɪf.taɪm/, profitable /ˈpɹɑ.fɪ.tə.bl̩/, roughly /ˈɹʌf.li/, define /dɪˈfaɪn/, affair /əˈfɛɹ/
/v/ — ㅂ(/b/)과 구별하기: invest /ɪnˈvɛst/, versus /ˈvɝsəs/, unbelievable /ˌʌnbɪˈliːvəbl̩/, navigate /ˈnæv.ɪ.ɡeɪt/, relative /ˈɹɛl.ə.tɪv/
/z/ — ㅈ이 아니라 성대를 울리는 /s/: presentation /ˌpɹɛzn̩ˈteɪʃn̩/, examine /ɪɡˈzæmɪn/, expose /ɪkˈspoʊz/, reasonableness /ˈɹiː.zə.nə.bəl.nəs/

이 영상으로 연습하는 방법

먼저 말하지 않고 영상을 끝까지 듣고 모르는 단어를 적어 둡니다.
0.75배속으로 한 문장씩 섀도잉을 시작하고, 익숙해지면 보통 속도로 돌아갑니다.
자신의 목소리를 녹음해 원본과 비교하고, earn, automobile, recession 같은 단어에 특히 주의합니다.

쉐도잉이란? 영어 실력을 빠르게 키우는 과학적 방법

쉐도잉(Shadowing)은 원래 전문 통역사 훈련을 위해 개발된 언어 학습 기법으로, 다언어 학자인 Dr. Alexander Arguelles에 의해 대중화된 방법입니다. 핵심 원리는 간단하지만 매우 강력합니다: 원어민의 영어를 들으면서 1~2초의 짧은 지연으로 즉시 소리 내어 따라 말하는 것——마치 '그림자(shadow)'처럼 화자를 따라가는 것입니다. 문법 공부나 수동적인 청취와 달리, 쉐도잉은 뇌와 입 근육이 동시에 실시간으로 영어를 처리하고 재현하도록 훈련합니다. 연구에 따르면 이 방법은 발음 정확도, 억양, 리듬, 연음, 청취력, 말하기 유창성을 크게 향상시킵니다. IELTS 스피킹 준비와 자연스러운 영어 소통을 원하는 분들에게 특히 효과적입니다.

섀도잉 방법: 단계별 전체 가이드 읽기 →

쉐도잉 연습: Warren Buffett On Investment Strategy | Full Interview Fortune MPW - 영상으로 영어 말하기 배우기

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