ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: Warren Buffett On Investment Strategy | Full Interview Fortune MPW
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Good morning all.
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After a spectacular night, thank you Warren.
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And I'm going to be asking some questions as usual
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and we will go to the audience a little bit later so get your questions.
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Warren, I'm going to start unusually with current events
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because last week you announced that you were buying the fifth largest auto insurance auto dealership in the country,
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Van Tile Group of Phoenix.
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Now there may even be some people in the audience who think of the car business as ethically challenged,
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but at any rate what I'd like you to do is spend a
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a paragraph or two talking about what by Buffett standards is a good business.
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And then go into why does the car dealership business look like a good business to you?
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A good business is the one that earns a high rate of return on tangible assets.
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Very simple.
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That's pretty simple, yeah.
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And the very best businesses are the ones that earn a high rate of return on tangible assets and grow.
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But even ones that don't grow, if they are in a high return on tangible assets, and then of course if you don't pay too much,
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they can be a good investment.
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They're a good business to start with by the high returns.
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If you pay too much for them, you can turn a good business into a bad investment.
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But if you pay an appropriate price, you can do all right.
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Now the big mistake which we made in the early years was to try
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and buy a bad business at a really cheap price.
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And it took me about 20 or 30 years to figure out that wasn't a good idea.
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But this is the car dealership business, if run well, can be a very good business.
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You have no receivables to speak of.
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You floor plan your inventory.
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You can lease your real estate.
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We don't do that well, only 95 % of our real estate.
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So you can have very little capital actually invested in the business.
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And you do a large volume, Van Tile, which we bought, has 78 dealerships.
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They'll average over $100 million a dealership.
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So you can work on fairly narrow margins
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and still earn a high return on capital if you don't tie up much capital into $100 million a business.
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And how many car dealerships are there in total in the United States?
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There are over 17 ,000 car dealerships in the United States.
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And the interesting thing is if you go back 40 or 50 years, there were in the 30 ,000.
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So while the country has grown dramatically, and actually the number of nameplates in the car business have grown,
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you've cut the dealerships almost in half.
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So the average dealer now does far greater volume than when I was growing up.
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Well, by all means, visit a Berkshire Hathaway car dealership in the next year and report back.
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Now, Ed, let's go from that to some entirely different industry, the big banks of the United States.
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Right.
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And the question of whether they are good businesses and the question of what's happened to that in the last few years.
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Are they as good a business as they were a few years ago?
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No, no. The banks earn on assets.
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They don't earn on net worth.
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You know, you calculate it eventually as to what they earn on equity or net worth.
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But assets are the earning factors and they've changed the rules
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so that you have to have more net worth per dollar of assets.
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And obviously, if you have more net worth per dollar assets and you're earning a constant amount on assets, your earnings on net worth go down.
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Now, they were ungodly profitable, the better ones were, back 15 years ago or 10 years ago even,
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when they had high ratios of assets to net worth.
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And some of them even cheated in terms of having even more assets than the regulators would have allowed.
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And you had these CIVs, as they were called, Citigroup had a whole bunch of them.
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So they were off balance sheet ways of even controlling more assets.
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But all of that sort of thing has been terminated
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and now they've got much lower limits as to the assets to net worth ratios.
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And the bigger the bank, to some extent, the bigger the bank, the lower that ratio can be.
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So what was a very profitable business has been turned into a good business if executed well.
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It's a pretty simple business.
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I mean, you get your money cheap, very cheap.
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Wells Fargo will have a trillion dollars roughly or close to
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that of depositors money and it's probably costing around 10 basis points now.
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Most people think you get a trillion dollars of money and pay a tenth of 1 % for it,
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would find some way to do something profitable.
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But the banks have always gotten in trouble on the asset side.
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They've never gotten in trouble on the liability side basically.
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But they really haven't gotten in trouble too much on the expense side.
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But they go crazy occasionally on the asset side.
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And what they do is they start copying what their dumb competitors are doing.
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That happens in every business, but that's particularly virulent in the banking business.
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John Stumpf once said, he said,
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I don't know why we keep looking for new ways to lose money when the old ones were working so well.
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But they do, and they copycat.
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That's a great danger in any business.
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I warn our managers against it all the time.
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If anybody comes to me and says we want to do this because the other guy is doing it,
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you know, I say go back to square one and come up with a better reason.
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But human nature is such that you do want to do what others are doing.
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I one time was at a director's meeting where a leading property casualty insurance manager, a very well -known guy,
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was making a presentation to buy a life insurance company.
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He was going through all these kind of silly reasons why they should do it.
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And he realized that the crowd was kind of catching on to the fact these reasons were too good.
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So finally, he just threw up his hands and said, said, oh, all the other kids have one.
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And basically, there's a lot of business decisions made because all the other kids have one.
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OK, now let's move to the stock market, a subject of great interest to everyone here, I'm sure.
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Over the years, you've generally been reluctant to frame a big cosmic position on the stock market.
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I've done it about five times.
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I know.
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But I think last spring, if I'm remembering correctly, and correct me if I'm not, you said that stocks were either greatly expensive or really cheap.
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Right.
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What would you say now about stocks?
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And in answer, you might also mention what people are now calling the Buffett standard.
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I didn't even know that.
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A statistical comparison that
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Fortune has used and promoted over the years.
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And tell us how things rank there.
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Well, I did use in a talk I gave 15 years ago at Sun Valley and got reprinted in Fortune,
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a standard of total market capitalization to GDP.
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And that, I use that because it showed at that time how extreme things had gotten.
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I think they'd gone from like, yeah, they'd gotten from 40 % of GDP, which had been kind of standard over the years.
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They'd gotten up to like 170 % or something.
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So it wasn't designed to be a fine tuning type of valuation, but it showed things that really changed in a big way.
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A very high percentage of the time, stocks are in what I call a zone of reasonableness.
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This is not something, you know, we all know that pi is 3 .14159,
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and little kids can sometimes give it out to hundreds of decibel places.
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But the stock market is not like that.
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There's a range of reasonableness, and most of the time throughout my lifetime, it's sold in the range of reasonableness.
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That range changes over time as earnings accumulate and interest rates change and all that sort of thing.
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There's only been about five times in my life,
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I think, that I've actually spoken out publicly to say it was outside the range in one direction or another.
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The most recent one being in October, I was early in October of 2008, and I said stocks were cheap,
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and I wrote an op -ed in the New York Times.
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But I'll probably have some chance once every five or ten years to make a definitive statement.
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There is a big zone of reasonableness.
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Anybody thinks they can pinpoint it is crazy.
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It's not that precise.
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And fortunately, you don't need to.
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If you buy good businesses at reasonable prices and hold them, you're going to make a lot of money.
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And that's true of stocks as a group.
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It's true of individual companies.
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So you're saying that right now they are in a zone of reasonable.
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They are in a zone of reasonable.
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Okay.
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Okay.
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All right.
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We're going to move sharply to another direction, to politics.
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A question of very great interest to this audience.
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Is Hillary going to run?
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Now, let me give you a background on Hillary, because in 2008, Warren promised support to both Hillary and Barack Obama.
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And then when he found out that he'd done that sort of, he said, well, okay, I'll just be a bigamist.
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So he did back both of them.
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The only time I've been a bigamist.
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And so, okay, tell us, is Hillary going to run?
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Hillary's going to run.
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Hillary's going to run.
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How soon is she going to announce it?
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She's going to announce it as late as possible.
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Uh -huh.
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Well, how late is, late as possible?
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Well, I'm giving a direct quote.
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Okay.
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All right, next question.
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Who's going to be your opponent?
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Who would you get?
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I don't know.
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The interesting thing is that
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Romney's getting more interested.
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Right, right. But it...
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Her opponent will be whoever wins the Republican primary, and there's going to be a lot of people who want to do it.
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Well, some people say that if Jeb Bush runs, that Mitt Romney won't.
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Do you believe that's the case?
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I think once they have the political bug, anybody will run that they think has a chance, and who thinks they can raise the money?
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Okay.
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That's called the Buffett's Law.
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Now, final question on that.
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Is Hillary going to win?
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Hillary's going to win.
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Yeah.
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Well, I know...
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I've heard just in the last few days that some of the political pundits like Ed Rollins are saying that,
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that it really, that it is going to be true.
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I will bet money on it.
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I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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You will bet money.
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I don't do it that easily.
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Anybody in the audience who would like to come on the other side of Warren Buffett,
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I want to tell you it's not too good a deal.
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We did that on silver one time.
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I was selling short and you were buying on silver.
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That was right.
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Okay, now a business issue that is constantly in the press is the security of corporate data.
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Has Berkshire had, or have you had personally, any security problems?
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I don't have anything to hack.
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I'm the only person without any email.
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So that, and I'm groping here to pull out my, this is the latest I've gotten in technology.
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Gee, this is my little...
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I really feel kind of with it, carrying that around.
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I don't know how to use it, understand, but I like to pull it out on occasion just to impress people.
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And wasn't there an occasion where you didn't look at it for kind of a year?
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Well, there was a famous case where during the Lehman weekend, I received a call on Saturday night.
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I was in Edmonton, Alberta, very late at night.
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And, well, I first arrived there for a social event at 6 o 'clock
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and I got a call from Bob Diamond of Lehman, or Bob Diamond of Barclays who was trying to buy Lehman.
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And they wanted, the British government had just told Lehman, or told Barclays, I'm sorry, told Barclays they could not buy Lehman
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and expose themselves to a loss of greater than 3 billion pounds without getting shareholder approval.
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And they would need at least a month to get shareholder approval.
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So Bob Diamond said to me, what would you charge to ensure all the parties doing business with us,
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that their contracts would be fulfilled between when we make the deal
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and when we have a chance to have a shareholders vote approving it, which would have been at least 30 days, probably 60 days.
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And I said, well, I've never heard of a contract like this.
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How much do you want the indemnity before?
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He said, I want it to be unlimited.
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Well, unlimited was not a great word in the fall of 2008.
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So I said, I'm going to this party.
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I'll come back about midnight.
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Fax me how much you'll pay, how you'll define the terms of the contract.
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But tell me how much you'll pay and I will get back to you no matter what hour it is.
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This is a couple of hours later in New York and I'll let you know whether I'll do it.
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So I went to the party and I came back at midnight and there was no fax.
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I went down to the desk and I said, where's the fax?
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And they said, we don't have a fax.
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So I stayed up for another hour or two.
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Finally, I gave up. That was September 2008.
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In July of 2009, I was going to Sun Valley.
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And we got off the plane, and I opened this very modern contraption I have in my pocket.
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And it said, message waiting or something like that.
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And I don't know how to work that part of it.
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So I gave it to my daughter, who's here.
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And I said, tell me what this message is on here.
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And so she pulled it up and handed it to me, and I started listening.
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And she started talking to me.
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I said, quiet, I'm trying to listen to this.
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And it turned out that it was a message from that night in September
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telling me that they would call me on Sunday, and we'd try to work out all this thing.
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So if you really want to know the story of why Lehman failed.
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Well, wasn't there...
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Send smoke signals to me if you have anything important to say.
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So you haven't had any security problems.
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I don't think Merkshire has had any security problems.
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How about, didn't your wife lose her credit card?
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Won your first wife lose her credit card once?
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Oh, yeah.
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Oh, yeah.
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Yes.
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When my first wife lost her credit card, I made no attempt to get it back because the guy was spending less than she was.
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OK. So OK.
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Okay, now one other current event issue,
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a fascinating trial is going on in Washington in which AIG's former CEO,
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Hank Greenberg, is contending that Washington's regulators not only acted wrongly in 2008 in taking over AIG,
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That was right after Lehman failed, but also wrongfully imposed onerous conditions on AIG,
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charging at sky -high interest rates, for example.
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What's your opinion about the issues in that trial?
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Well, I know certain aspects of it.
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I don't know others.
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We had been looking at AIG over that same weekend when I was up at Edmonds, and I came back.
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And AIG had first engaged us.
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Well, they tried to engage us numerous times.
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They first engaged us on Friday, preceding my going to Canada for that social affair.
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And on Friday, I went down to the office on Friday night,
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and they faxed me a whole bunch of material on the property casualty operations of AIG.
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They also had a lot of life operations, and unfortunately they had AIG financial products, which had a whole lot of derivative operations.
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That was at the parent, toward the parent company.
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And I had to know whether the property casualty company's been contaminated by any cross guarantees between AIG Financial Products, and they assured me they hadn't.
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So I went to the office and they sent me all this material.
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And I looked at it for about an hour, and then I called Bob Wilmstedt and I said,
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look, don't waste your time on me because there is no way
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that I can come up with a number that'll be of any help to you
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and besides i can't make i i wouldn't be sure of
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that number even because it's such a mess of spaghetti basically and uh
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and don't you know you've got to you've got to come up with a solution by early next week
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so spend your time on somebody else
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but nevertheless they kept pulling in another fellow a jeep chain
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and on sunday he was working on everything
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so we had some vague picture of it
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and then i got a call on either monday
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or tuesday from tim geithner who i never met before and tim said that they were contemplating lending $85 billion,
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the New York Fed was, to AIG.
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And in my opinion, was there enough in the way of value there to warrant such an $85 billion loan?
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And I said, nobody could know.
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Under the circumstances of that day, there wasn't anything that was worth $85 billion or anything like it.
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I mean, it was total chaos.
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But I thought that if they had staying power and if there weren't things there that I didn't know about,
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which there could be, probably the underlying subsidiaries would bring $85 billion in a normalized market.
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And that was that.
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I would say this, that it's been proven that in a stabilized situation
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where people were not worried about the survival of AIG because the government was behind it,
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those subsidiaries have been proved to be worth a lot more than $85 billion.
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But I will also say this, if the New York Fed had not put the money in within 24 hours,
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unquestionably AIG would have been walking over to a federal judge's quarters with a petition of bankruptcy.
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They were gone and they did not, they had a downgrade coming on their credit, where they would have had to put up way more collateral
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on a bunch of things they'd done in the financial product subsidiary.
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So they were totally gone.
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Now, it's up to a judge to determine the propriety of all these things.
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But the one thing I'm clear on is that there would have been,
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AIG would have been in bankruptcy the activity of the New York Fed within 48 hours of when Gettner called me.
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I see, so that's a big central point.
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Well, it's a central point, but there's questions about the terms and all of that which are going to be adjudicated, or being adjudicated right now.
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And I just don't know the law on that.
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But there was no other option for AIG at that point.
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And there was nobody that would have lent them the money
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or invested on terms that were twice as onerous as the ones imposed by the New York Fed.
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It was, for those of you who may have missed the main show in 2008, it was a period like we've never had it.
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And one of the things during a period like that, it really is like the fog of war.
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I mean, if you're Paulson or Bernanke, you know, or Sheila Bearer, the, you're getting reports from all these different fronts.
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Some of them are somewhat inaccurate, you know, some of them have a bias to them based on what the parties want you to do.
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It is total mass confusion.
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And, on the other hand, you have to navigate through it.
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And you have to navigate through it to some extent in cooperating with other people, particularly Congress.
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And it was an ungodly, I've never seen anything like it.
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I don't think I'll ever see anything like it again.
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And I give great credit to Paulson and Bernanke and Geithner
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and Sheila Bear for what I give credit to President Bush for the way they handled it.
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You can criticize what might have been done leading up to it.
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But when Pearl Harbor happened, they did the right thing.
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And my final question here, what about the political deadlock in Washington?
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Do you see any hopes?
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Do you see how we get out of that?
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Well, we'll get out of it somehow because we, you know, I always say that buy stock in a business that's
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so good that an idiot can run it because sooner or later one will.
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Now, if you want to, you can make a mental jump on that over to governments and so on.
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We do have a country that works over time.
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I mean, it's an unbelievable, and it will continue to work.
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It will get people, we had a civil war here in this country.
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We have all kinds of problems in the past.
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But this country, it's unbelievable what's happened since 1776 and the game isn't over.
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So I'm an optimist about it getting solved.
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But if you asked me how it was going to happen, I would say I don't have the faintest idea.
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It's a terrible situation, whether it's in a family, in a business, in a government,
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when a significant portion of the people involved don't even really want to succeed, they want the other person to fail.
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And that's a, you never want to bring that, you know, into any activity.
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I mean, but a significant percentage of people in Congress really want the president to fail.
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Right.
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And that is not good for the country and we'll get past it one way or another.
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But it has been a pretty ugly show in recent years.
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But don't ever do it.
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That should not affect in any way your business decisions.
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Charlie Munger and I have been making stock decisions and business decisions one way or another together now for 55 years.
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We have never let, well, the macro doesn't enter into it, nor does political.
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We have not made decisions differently because one party or the other's in power.
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We have not made decisions based on whether we thought interest rates were going to go up
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or down or what was going to happen with labor negotiations someplace.
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You don't want to give up what you know how to do
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because of opinions which which you don't know whether right or not and which are going to be transitory in any event.
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So you really go out there every day and do whatever makes the most sense.
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So when we buy the auto dealerships last week, we don't factor in anything about the Fed, about the deadlock in politics,
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about what's going on around the world.
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Those are all important things, but they don't affect whether those dealerships, which we're buying to own 100 years,
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they don't affect whether they're going to make money in the year 2024 or 2034 or 2035.
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And the important thing is whether we get a good business with good management at a sensible price.
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Now, let me turn to the audience where it's always hard to see up here.
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But if you'll raise your hand, other people will help me.
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Anything over here?
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Hi, Warren.
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It's Catherine Keating from JPMorgan.
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I want to ask you about your view on the economy.
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You know, a lot of economists have claimed coming out of the crisis that we have a prolonged period of slower growth.
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And yet you're investing in car sales, home sales, trains, transportation, things deeply sensitive to the economy.
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I'd love to hear your view about where you see us today.
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Yeah.
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Since the fall of 2009, five years ago now, we have seen both in our own businesses, and we've got 75 or more businesses.
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We've really got a lot more than that, but it's because some of them own other ones.
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But we're across the board in everything.
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We're now in planes, trains, and automobiles, among other things.
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But we're in all kinds of businesses and they interact with all kinds of businesses.
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We have seen since 2009 really a rather steady, not at the rate people hope, but a rather steady increase in business right straight through.
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We've heard talk and you've heard talk during that period about double dips and all these things and acceleration.
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We have not seen it accelerate much or decelerate much ever from say a 2 % or they're about rate.
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And that's what we see today.
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And we see it whether it's in freight car loadings, we see it in all kinds of ways.
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Automobiles have been better than I would have anticipated.
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Housing has been worse than I would have anticipated.
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But overall, the economy has been moving forward now for five years.
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Now, it's moving.
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from a position that, you know, they talk about having eight or nine recessions since World War II and how we've come out of them faster.
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This was way, way, way different than any other recession we've had post -World War II.
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This was a recession where virtually everybody in this room and around the country was actually scared for a while.
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I mean, people go through recessions and they're unpleasant and all that.
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But people literally, they took
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Treasury Bill rates down to a negative rate.
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Now
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when you were willing to take less money from a treasury bill than you would get from putting money under your mattress,
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that is a different phenomenon in economics from what we've experienced.
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So you've had the American people be paralyzed by fear and coming out of that paralysis.
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And the gain has been really, I think, quite satisfactory.
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You'd love to see it faster.
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And let me point out one other thing.
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We talk about 2 % of your gains now and everybody says that's terrible, you know, and it's not our potential and everything.
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The population is probably going to grow a little less than 1 % a year.
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So if you have 2 % real gains, that means in a generation,
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in 20 years, you will have greater than a 20 % per capita gain in real GDP.
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Now real GDP is about $54 ,000 per person in the United States.
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If you get a 20 % real gain per capita, that's $10 ,000 per person,
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more per capita income in the United States in one generation.
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That's fantastic.
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I mean, it may not be as good as we did in some of the decades after
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World War II, but if you go back in history, centuries went by without getting anything like that.
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And 20 % gain, how would you like to have that distributed somehow evenly across the population?
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You'd be rid of all poverty and everything else.
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So even at our present rates of gain, this country is turning out more and more stuff per capita year by year,
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and it will continue to do so.
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We have a marvelous machine, and it has worked extraordinarily since 1776.
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In my lifetime, I was born in 1930, in my lifetime, the real GDP per capita in the United States has increased six for one,
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one person's lifetime.
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I mean, nothing like it's ever happened.
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And it isn't because we're smarter, and it isn't because we work harder, it's because we have a system that unleashes human potential.
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And, you know, just look at the people in this room.
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I mean, you know, you have more potential than you thought you had ten years ago or twenty years ago.
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You certainly have more potential than your parents thought you had.
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So it just, it just, and you will find ten years from now,
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you have a, that you had a lot more potential than you thought you had today.
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I mean, and you're gonna get a chance to use it in this country.
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You know, you're not condemned to a life that, you know, that was ordained by what your parents did before you or something.
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It's a wonderful, wonderful system.
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And it's still working and it will keep working.
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Here.
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Hi, Jenny Johnson with Franklin Templeton Investments.
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How do you know when to throw in the towel on an investment or a business?
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When to throw in the towel on an - On investment or a business. Or business?
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Yeah, well, what you know, you're doing too late.
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I've done, I went in the textile business by accident in 1965, and I threw in the towel about 20 years later.
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And that was about 20 years too late.
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There's a great tendency to want to hold on, justify old decisions.
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I mean, that's a human trait.
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And when you really know you've got a bad business is when you have a good manager and you're getting bad results.
406
I mean, when you're getting bad results with a bad manager,
407
you still have to examine the question of whether you can get better results if you get a better manager.
408
Usually you can't.
409
I've said in the past that
410
when a management with a reputation for excellence encounters a business with a reputation for bad economics,
411
it's the reputation of the business that remains intact.
412
And I've proved that many times.
413
There are businesses that are just plain tough.
414
And there may be too many competitors, but there's reasons why they don't drop out.
415
There's reasons, well, we started out in textiles.
416
And we made over half of the linings for men's suits in the country.
417
And we went through World War II and got awards
418
and Sears Roebuck named us their supplier of the year and all of that sort of thing.
419
And then we'd say, well, we'd like to increase the price of.
420
of these linings a quarter of a cent a yard in Sears.
421
You must be out of your mind.
422
There's ten other guys that will sell it to us at the old price.
423
And nobody ever went into a Sears store and said,
424
I'd like a blue serge suit with a half -away lining.
425
It didn't exist.
426
We had no connection to the consumer.
427
And there are lots of lousy businesses.
428
And there's lots of wonderful businesses.
429
And my job over the years has been to try and figure out which is which, and I've made plenty of mistakes.
430
I bought a company called Dexter Shoes in the early 90s.
431
I paid $400 -plus million for it, and it made a lot of money before I bought it.
432
But, you know, as soon as I bought it, they pulled some switch or something, and it immediately started losing money.
433
And it was because of foreign competition, so on.
434
Or it was maybe because I owned it, I don't know.
435
And it went to zero.
436
And the worst thing was that I paid for it in stock.
437
So that $400 million in stock I gave at the time is now worth about $5 billion.
438
So every time Berkshire stock goes down, I feel a little bit better because of my opportunity loss on this business.
439
But, you know, when I looked at Dexter's Shoe, they had a good position in retailers.
440
They turned out good shoes.
441
They had a great workforce, all kinds of things.
442
But I just forgot one thing, that they weren't going to make shoes in the United States anymore.
443
So you make mistakes, and it does pay to recognize quickly when you've made them.
444
If you've got a good person running a business and it isn't making any money, you're in the wrong business.
445
And you've got to face up to that.
446
And on her, I think the other half of the question was about investments.
447
Do you have any rule of thumb about when you give up on or when you realize it?
448
Well, again, I mean, I love it when the things we buy go down.
449
I mean, I just, I get euphoric, you know.
450
Stocks are down today, and I'm buying more of something I was buying yesterday.
451
I'm buying it cheaper.
452
Now, when you go to the grocery store and you buy something cheaper than you bought it the day before, you think that's terrific.
453
But people with their stocks, they think that the stock knows more than they do.
454
So that they, when the stock goes down, they say the stock is telling them something, you know.
455
And what it's telling me is I can get more for my money.
456
But they take it as kind of a referendum on themselves, you know, and it's me versus the stock.
457
If it ever gets back to what I paid, I'm gonna sell it.
458
The stock doesn't care what you paid.
459
I mean, you have to remember, the stock doesn't even care that you own it.
460
You are nothing to the stock.
461
That stock is everything to you, you know.
462
And you remember you paid $10 .13, and therefore the stock should get to $10 .13 before you sell it.
463
You know, the stock has no feelings about you.
464
I hate to disillusion you on this, but it just doesn't care.
465
And so the only question with every stock every day, and you don't do it this frequently,
466
is can I get more for my money someplace else?
467
You've got a chance to be in thousands and thousands of great businesses, and their prices change all the time, so their relative valuations change.
468
And you can make the exchange at very low cost these days, commissions or nothing.
469
So you can always shift from one business to another.
470
You have a huge advantage over Andrew Carnegie.
471
When he was in the steel business, he was in the steel business, or Rockefeller was in the oil business.
472
He could not shift over immediately to retailing or something like that.
473
You can rearrange your business empire, which you own through that little portfolio that you have.
474
You can rearrange that at a moment's notice with practically no cost.
475
It's a huge advantage, which people turn into a disadvantage.
476
There is nothing about the price action of the stock that tells you whether you should keep owning.
477
What tells you whether you should keep owning
478
it is what you expect the company to do in the future versus the price at
479
which it's selling now compared to the other opportunities of businesses
480
that you think you know equally well and make that same comparison.
481
And that's all there is to owning stocks.
482
Question?
483
Back there in the back, are there two hands up together?
484
Well, okay.
485
I'll let you choose back there.
486
Hi.
487
You said obviously this recovery's been a little, you know, bumpy, and some industries have done well, and some not so well, like home building.
488
Many have articulated that for us to really see the full potential of our economy growing, home building's going to have to recover.
489
Do you agree with that, and what does that look like for you, and what do you think the catalyst is to get us there?
490
Home building, you said earlier that it had lagged.
491
Yeah.
492
And the question is, what do you think about home building and whether, how much of a problem is this?
493
Well, it's come back some, but it's come back at a pace way less than I would expect.
494
Now we over built like crazy in 2004, 5 and 6, we were building a couple million units.
495
And basically it ties in with household formation.
496
And household formation falls off dramatically.
497
in a recession, at least initially.
498
I mean, if you look at 2009, I believe the household formation, you know, was almost flat.
499
People just, they put plans on hold.
500
But that doesn't last long, you know.
501
Hormones kick in, you know, and in -laws get tiresome too.
502
So, in the end, you know, if people keep behaving as they have since Adam and Eve,
503
you will have household formations in this country.
504
And you will not have them all wanting to live with their in -laws or some of that.
505
They will want to have their own homes or apartment units.
506
Now, we've had more of a bulge in apartment units than we have at homes.
507
I mean, there can be some movement between people's preferences
508
within whether they want to live in an owner -occupied home or in an apartment.
509
But so far in this recovery, and we're in the carpet business, we are the largest home builder in the United States.
510
We own a company called Clayton Homes.
511
It actually will turn out about 30 ,000 homes this year.
512
But it's lagged significantly the rate of gain I would expect, considering everything else that's happened in the economy,
513
and considering how low interest rates are.
514
I mean, you know, everybody in this room should get a 30 -year mortgage now.
515
And you get the mortgage, if it turns out interest rates go lower, you call it off.
516
If they go higher, you don't call it off.
517
You've got the option.
518
It's an incredibly attractive instrument for the, you know, it's a 30 -minute instrument if you've been wrong on interest rates,
519
and it's a 30 -year instrument if you've been right on interest rates.
520
And I can't get that one -sided instrument at Berkshire Hathaway.
521
I can only get it for a mortgage.
522
So you would think that people would be lining up now to get mortgages to buy a home.
523
And it's a good way to go short the dollar.
524
I mean, there's all short interest rates.
525
It's almost a no -brainer.
526
But so far, home construction pickup has been slower than I would anticipate.
527
But I have a lot of faith in hormones.
528
And I don't really think that their impact will be less five or ten years from now.
529
So we will have a catch up period.
530
We've had the catch up period going on in autos at a much faster pace, I think, than most people anticipated.
531
I mean, we're going to have close to a 17 million car year here.
532
And I would not have guessed we'd have a 17 million car year at the same time
533
that we have houses moving at the rate they are.
534
It'll improve.
535
But I've been wrong on the timing so far, so I'll probably continue to be wrong.
536
Well, I'm afraid the clock is telling us that our time is up.
537
And I hope we'll give
538
Warren a great hand for both speaking and singing to us.
539
Thank you.
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คำศัพท์และข้อสังเกตด้านการพูดสำหรับบทเรียนนี้
บทเรียนฝึกพูดนี้ใช้วิดีโอ “Warren Buffett On Investment Strategy” เป็นสื่อ วิดีโอนี้มี 539 ประโยค และ 6474 คำ สำหรับฝึกพูดตาม ช่วงที่มีเสียงพูดยาว 37:59 ผู้พูดพูดด้วยความเร็วเป็นธรรมชาติ ประมาณ 170 คำต่อนาที ใกล้เคียงกับบทสนทนาในชีวิตประจำวัน 86% ของคำอยู่ใน 3,000 คำที่ใช้บ่อยที่สุดในภาษาอังกฤษ ส่วนที่เหลือควรดูไว้ก่อนเริ่มฝึก
คำศัพท์สำคัญในวิดีโอนี้
คำที่ควรเรียนรู้ 15 คำจากวิดีโอ พร้อมคำอ่านและความหมาย:
| คำศัพท์ | คำอ่าน | ความหมาย |
|---|---|---|
| earn คำกริยา | /ɝn/ | หาเงิน |
| automobile คำนาม | /ˈɔː.tə.məˌbil/ | รถยนต์, รถ |
| recession คำนาม | /ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/ | การถอย |
| instrument คำนาม | /ˈɪnstɹəmənt/ | เครื่องมือวัด |
| reputation คำนาม | /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/ | ชื่อเสียง |
| mortgage คำนาม | /ˈmoɹ.ɡɪd͡ʒ/ | จำนอง |
| ratio คำนาม | /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/ | สัดส่วน, อัตราส่วน |
| invest คำกริยา | /ɪnˈvɛst/ | ลงทุน, ลงทุนลงแรง |
| towel คำนาม | /ˈtaʊ̯əl/ | ผ้าขนหนู, ผ้าเช็ดตัว |
| shareholder คำนาม | /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/ | ผู้ถือหุ้น |
| percentage คำนาม | /pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/ | อัตราร้อยละ |
| extent คำนาม | /ɪkˈstɛnt/ | ขอบข่าย, ขนาด |
| economics คำนาม | /ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪks/ | เศรษฐศาสตร์ |
| occasion คำนาม | /əˈkeɪ̯ʒən/ | โอกาส |
| midnight คำนาม | /ˈmɪd(ˌ)naɪt/ | เที่ยงคืน |
กริยาวลีที่คุณจะได้ยิน
| คำศัพท์ | ความหมาย |
|---|---|
| come back คำกริยา | กลับมา |
| give up คำกริยา | ยอมแพ้ |
| fall off คำกริยา | หล่น, หลุด |
| go back คำกริยา | กลับไป |
| go out คำกริยา | ออก, ออกไป |
ประโยคที่ควรฝึกพูดซ้ำ
ประโยคสั้น ๆ ที่สมบูรณ์จากวิดีโอ ซึ่งนำไปใช้ในบทสนทนาประจำวันได้:
- What would you say now about stocks?
- Who's going to be your opponent?
- Do you believe that's the case?
- How about, didn't your wife lose her credit card?
- What's your opinion about the issues in that trial?
ไวยากรณ์ในวิดีโอนี้
โครงสร้างที่ผู้พูดใช้บ่อยที่สุด พร้อมคำพูดจริงจากวิดีโอ:
| โครงสร้าง | ในวิดีโอ |
|---|---|
| Present perfect continuous have/has been + -ing — การกระทำที่เริ่มก่อนหน้านี้และยังดำเนินอยู่ | have been making · has been moving |
| ประโยคเงื่อนไข if + อนุประโยค, will/would + กริยา — เงื่อนไขและผลลัพธ์ | if Jeb Bush runs, that Mitt Romney won't |
| Present perfect have/has + กริยาช่อง 3 — เหตุการณ์ในอดีตที่ยังเกี่ยวข้องกับปัจจุบัน | has grown · you've cut · they've changed |
| Passive voice be + กริยาช่อง 3 — เน้นสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้น ไม่ใช่ผู้กระทำ | were called · has been terminated · has been turned |
การออกเสียงที่ควรระวัง
ผู้พูดใช้รูปย่อและรูปลดเสียง 174 ครั้ง เช่น don't, I'm, you've ให้พูดแบบสั้นตามที่ได้ยิน
- เสียง “th”: nevertheless /ˌnɛvɚðəˈlɛs/, thumb /ˈθʌm/, tenth /tɛnθ/
- เสียง “sh” และ “zh”: recession /ɹɪˈsɛʃn̩/, reputation /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/, ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/, shareholder /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/, casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/
- คำยาว — ลงเสียงหนักให้ถูกพยางค์: automobile /ˈɔː.tə.məˌbil/, reputation /ˌɹɛpjʊˈteɪʃən/, subsidiary /sʌbˈsɪ.di.əɹ.i/, anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/, casualty /ˈkæʒu.əlti/
เสียงที่คนไทยมักออกเสียงยาก:
- เสียงท้ายคำ — ออกเสียงให้ครบ ไม่เปลี่ยนเป็นตัวสะกดแบบไทย: automobile /ˈɔː.tə.məˌbil/, mortgage /ˈmoɹ.ɡɪd͡ʒ/, towel /ˈtaʊ̯əl/, tangible /ˈtæn.d͡ʒə.bəl/, percentage /pə(ɹ)ˈsɛntɪd͡ʒ/
- /v/ — ไม่ใช่ /w/ ให้ฟันบนแตะริมฝีปากล่าง: invest /ɪnˈvɛst/, versus /ˈvɝsəs/, unbelievable /ˌʌnbɪˈliːvəbl̩/, navigate /ˈnæv.ɪ.ɡeɪt/, relative /ˈɹɛl.ə.tɪv/
- /z/ — เสียงก้อง ไม่ใช่ /s/: presentation /ˌpɹɛzn̩ˈteɪʃn̩/, examine /ɪɡˈzæmɪn/, expose /ɪkˈspoʊz/, reasonableness /ˈɹiː.zə.nə.bəl.nəs/
วิธีฝึกกับวิดีโอนี้
- ฟังวิดีโอให้จบหนึ่งรอบโดยยังไม่ต้องพูด แล้วจดคำที่ยังไม่รู้จัก
- เริ่มที่ความเร็ว 0.75× พูดตามทีละประโยค แล้วกลับไปใช้ความเร็วปกติเมื่อเริ่มคล่อง
- อัดเสียงตัวเองแล้วเทียบกับต้นฉบับ โดยสังเกตคำอย่าง earn, automobile, recession เป็นพิเศษ
เทคนิค Shadowing คืออะไร?
Shadowing เป็นเทคนิคการเรียนรู้ภาษาที่ได้รับการรับรองทางวิทยาศาสตร์ พัฒนาขึ้นสำหรับการฝึกนักแปลมืออาชีพ วิธีการนี้เรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง: คุณฟังเสียงภาษาอังกฤษจากเจ้าของภาษาและพูดตามทันที — เหมือนเงาที่ตามผู้พูดด้วยช่วงเวลาห่าง 1-2 วินาที การวิจัยแสดงว่าเทคนิคนี้ปรับปรุงความแม่นยำในการออกเสียง ทำนองเสียง จังหวะ การเชื่อมเสียง การฟังเข้าใจ และความคล่องแคล่วในการพูดได้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ