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a seven -fold surge in profit.
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The results boosted hopes that profits can be sustained as AI developers build data centers, which drives demand for Mary Mary.
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Joining us, Bloomberg Tech.
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The SK Hynix earnings were crazy.
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Let's go through a breakdown of not just the raw numbers.
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Let's go past that.
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Let's go into what they're saying about the entire AI build out of the earnings call
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and do a quick summary of all of it.
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I'm really excited about this because I think this is absolutely wild.
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So the first thing that you've got to know is they do these things called LTAs.
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They're long -term agreements.
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And the whole reason they do this is because back in 2023 and many times in many cycles before that, I think 2014 was another one.
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The dot -com bubble was another one.
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They're these cycles where memory basically goes through a shortage, prices of memory go sky high,
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and then all the memory manufacturers are like, you know, what we should do.
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We should build more.
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And then all of a sudden the underlying desire to, you know, buy more memory chips fades or slows or the growth rate slows.
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Now all of a sudden you have a glut and you have overproduction, overcapacity, prices fall off a cliff.
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That's what everybody's worried about with memory stocks.
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And honestly, I've been a little bit of a poopy doopy bear since this summer on memory.
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I'm like, this is a meme movement at this point.
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I mean, it's kind of going up like GameStop at 400 bucks and you know it's like
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Leo Fold came in
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and turned off the buy button you know what I'm saying like the momentum just evaporated
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and so we were not very excited about these plays going even into the Leo Fold
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because we saw this as sort of a short -term trade
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and you better have a trailing stop many times called out have a trailing stop
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now what do we hear now because what we're hearing now is actually really optimistic for these memory plays.
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What we're hearing is they're doing more of these five -year contracts with their customers.
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And right now, over 50 % of all of SK Hynix's capacity,
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the production that they can generate for 2027 and 2028 is going to long -term agreements.
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Now that's actually really impressive.
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That's great because it gives them some stability.
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But what happens when those long -term agreements expire?
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Well, then you could be left holding the bag, right?
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But that's actually where things are getting fascinating here.
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Look at this.
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Customers are requesting longer -term collaborations based on our product roadmap and supply capabilities,
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indicating that long -term agreements are evolving to strengthen customer relationships and business continuity.
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Today, we have long -term agreements with 14 customers, including pretty much all of the major cloud service providers,
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and we're proactively in discussions about extending those contract periods.
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Now, why would they want to extend contract periods?
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Doesn't that create more risk for a company like Google or Microsoft or Amazon or Anthropic or whatever, or NVIDIA or AMD?
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Sure.
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But take a look at what they're also doing.
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They are building now custom memory chips.
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So we already know that Marvell and Broadcom work with companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to make custom application -specific integrated circuits.
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Those are called ASICs.
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Remember when those were all the rage for mining Bitcoin?
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They do one thing really well.
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That stands in contrast with an NVIDIA GPU, which is like a workhorse.
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What do you want me to do today, boy?
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I got you.
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You want me to do that?
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I got you.
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Okay, the ASIC's like, man, I push this button all day long, bro.
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I just push the button.
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And so if needs change, those ASICs can lose value very rapidly.
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It's one of the reasons people pay a premium for an NVIDIA GPU or some of the AMD products.
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Custom high bandwidth memory is very interesting because this is now suggesting,
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hey, how about these memory companies come in and actually customize what individual customers want for their product.
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Now, what we're seeing a lot of is spec changes at companies like NVIDIA, where we're saying, hey, do we really want so much memory
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or should we despec and go with less memory because we don't necessarily need all the memory?
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What you don't want is stranded memory.
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You don't want to oversize a chip with so much memory
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and you can't even operate all of what you're trying to run through a chip because the bandwidth is your bottleneck.
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All right, if you bottleneck one flow, what do you need all the RAM for?
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What do you need all the high bandwidth memory for?
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So that's where SK Hynix is like, look, we'll do even longer term deals if you want.
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We'll even customize the chips for you.
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These things are very smart.
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And the bull case in investing in these companies is A, they've gotten cheap.
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B, is they're returning a lot of money, capital to shareholders.
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We just saw at the beginning here, 45 billion expected to be returned to shareholders soon.
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And they promise to return even more in the future.
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But what's really fascinating is that these companies are trying to kill the boom and bust cycle for memory.
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And that's where reading this is either really good
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if you're a bull or
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if you're interested in what's going on with the overall artificial intelligence space and frankly what's happening with the AI buildup.
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This is a key read.
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So let's go through some of the highlights for you.
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So we expect to increase capital expenditures throughout 2027 significantly compared
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to 2026 to expand the share of leading edge processes and ramp up our first fab in Youngin.
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Okay, generally, when investors see, wait, you guys are going to increase capacity even more?
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You're going to spend more money on CapEx?
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When people see that, they get nervous.
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They get nervous that, oh, you're definitely going to lead to an oversupply.
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So they actually got asked specifically about oversupply.
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And what they said was this.
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They said, thank you for your question.
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It is true that a company is pursuing medium and long -term investments to accommodate strong demand,
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but more investment and more fabs does not necessarily mean more supply.
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With a rising share of high -performance products like high -bandwidth memory,
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which, keep in mind, that takes about two to five times as many wafers as DRAM.
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Okay, just to be clear here, like, RAM is like your overall umbrella, okay, and DRAM is really what everybody wants right now,
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so just consider that as like almost the umbrella product.
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And then you can divide that into like DDR5, which could be like a server product,
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or you could stack DRAM and turn it into high bandwidth memory.
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The point is, the more you're using these advanced chip packages, the fewer chips you're actually putting out.
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But you're putting out potentially better quality or more capable chips.
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And so that's what they're trying to say here is like, hey, just because we might be able to produce more at more facilities,
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we might be creating more complex chips, outputting them with finer technology.
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And therefore, that actually restrains our potential total bid output.
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Now, that's obviously their bullish point of view.
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It's their company trying to pitch their own products and their own stock.
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Obviously, I generally see earnings calls as a sales pitch for their own stock.
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But this is a really good comparison or argument for the bulls.
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It's basically saying, hey, guys, like, just because we're going to manufacture more doesn't mean, you know, we're going to oversupply.
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Obviously, at some point, if the AI trade slows down,
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you know, it's all going to go poopy -doopy and you're probably going to be in a recession.
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But, you know, until that point, so far, the AI boom seems like it is crushing it.
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Now, I want to show you CapEx and what's going on over here because some of these numbers and a chart, really, really interesting.
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We have a price increase.
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Okay.
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Let's take a look at this chart because this is fascinating.
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So this is the cash machine of SK Hynix.
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So basically, their CapEx is going up.
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That's a little purple box here.
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Their CapEx, how much they're spending and investing, going up bigly.
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I mean, you're seeing a massive increase in CapEx from last year.
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However, their free cash flow is also exploding.
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The full bar chart here is their operating cash.
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The green is their free cash flow.
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So even after their CapEx, they still have massive free cash flow.
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And this is where they're saying, hey, we want to give a lot of money back via dividends or whatever to shareholders.
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Now, obviously, that's a sales pitch to get people to buy the stock.
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Duh.
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That's what earnings calls are.
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There's nothing wrong with that.
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It's just always worth taking things with a grain of salt.
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So let's keep going through here.
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So yeah, here they talk about returning 50 % of free cash flow to shareholders, but also ramping CapEx.
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The chart I just showed helps a lot.
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So what's going on with AI demand? because there's been talk about pacing the AI buildout.
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Is this talk about pacing the AI buildout going to, you know, crush the economy?
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Where do we stay?
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Oh, my gosh, we're going to slow down AI investments.
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This is the only thing holding up GDP, which, in fairness, should do a quick check on GDP.
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GDP's been doing really freaking well, okay?
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A lot of that, obviously,
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driven by these expenditures and these investments that we're seeing by some of the richest companies in the world.
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Atlanta Fed real GDP estimated to be at 3 .3 % right now.
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And that's actually come down from as high as 6 % earlier in this quarter.
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Those are the estimates for the third quarter.
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They come in very noisy at the beginning of the quarter,
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and then they kind of settle out a little bit towards the end of the quarter because they collect more data.
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So it's kind of like a real -time response to what they're seeing with data.
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But anyway, regarding the pacing of AI, there are two main reasons why they think artificial intelligence momentum will continue.
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I think this is so fascinating that you could literally open up an earnings call
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and see exactly what the industry insiders are telling you is happening.
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Take a listen to this.
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First, we are seeing customers' AI investments actually leading to greater adoption of AI services, and they are producing business results.
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With major hyperscale customers reporting year -on -year growth of 30 % to 80 % of their cloud revenue,
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so growth of 30 % to 80 % on cloud revenue,
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a substantial portion of which SK Hynex believes is because of the expansion of their AI business and their AI products.
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You know what I like to do sometimes is I'll sort of just see and Google has been so left behind
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Okay, but sometimes I don't know if I can pull it up right now,
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but sometimes I'll just go into Google admin and I like to go see like hey, what are they charging for?
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You know upgrades or like well, you know what what can you add to?
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Users or seats or whatever and
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so what you could do is you could actually kind of go into the back end
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and see how they're trying to
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upsell people licenses right so
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if I go jump in right now yeah AI expanded access here I don't think
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that any of this is pretty proprietary here I'll just make sense
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this is what I like to look at I like to keep an eye on this
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so I look at this for example and I'll see okay
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so we don't have any more Google work workspace enterprise licenses that's fine but then I look at this AI expanded access.
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I could go add to this email address AI expanded access for 24 bucks a month.
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And then what they'll do with this is they'll pitch you,
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oh, hey, you know, now you could use a better version of the chat bot on,
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you know, Google chat or Google Gmail or whatever, or we'll let you have more usage, blah, blah, blah, whatever.
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And they're really trying to integrate AI throughout a bunch of different components of the business.
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Like here's how Google does it, for example.
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They'll come in and say, expanded access will get you more queries per month, build and edit spreadsheets.
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You could do more of them, build more canvases, generate more videos, more avatars, whatever.
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You could get more thinking responses.
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You could get more argon responses.
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Look at this, up to 200 of their argon.
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Now that's Gemini 4.
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So, like, you don't pay for that license, you don't get Argonne.
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It's kind of like their way of saying, hey, you want to pay for Fable?
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Oh, you're gonna have to add it to, you know, your workspace seats.
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And it's so easy to check the box and add it.
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And when an industry does it per seat, that's where companies like Google print freaking money.
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It's because somebody goes in there and goes, you know what, we're gonna enable this for everyone.
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It's like GitHub, you know?
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Yeah, it's like, oh yeah, let's enable that security feature, because everybody's worried about cybersecurity great that's gonna cost
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you 10 bucks more per month per seat you know
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we got thousands of people it gets really expensive really fast
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so anyway like I see that happening that's definitely happening have your loved one child been affected by social media
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More long -term contracts for large -scale enterprise AI solutions as well, while other cloud order backlogs have grown two to five -fold
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year on year cloud order backlogs growing two to five fold
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year on year is incredible cash flow will only improve they say across ai like this is
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so damn bullish ai it is insane it is it i almost want to be bearish
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because of how bullish it is because i'm generally a contrarian i'm the kind of guy
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That's gonna be at a party, okay?
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We'll be at a party with a Diet Coke.
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Hey, you wanna buy real estate?
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And then 20 people will be like, real estate, F that, we hate real estate.
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Fine, I'm gonna buy more real estate.
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And then it's probably gonna be the same thing next time there's a stock market crash.
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Everybody's gonna be like, ew, stocks suck.
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And we'd be like, hey guys, we should buy stocks.
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Ew, leave.
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I don't know, I just always seem to want to do the opposite it.
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And so I feel bad almost that I am aligned
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and in agreement with this bullishness because that is not part of jaded Kevin.
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But this makes sense.
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This is what we're seeing.
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And I believe there has been a massive inflection in the last six months and how good AI is.
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And I think that's the contrarian piece is that most people don't even notice it yet.
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How good it's gotten.
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It's scary.
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AI sales and cashflow will only improve and will ease the current market concerns on the investment burden.
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In fact, we're going to see more multi -site development, smaller or mid -sized data centers to bring power and data centers available more rapidly.
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This is basically saying, look, rather than have like the giant Kevin O 'Leary facility that everybody's going to go protest outside of,
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what if we just did 10 smaller ones and then we'll have fewer protests?
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And if two of them get shut down by city permitting issues, no problem, we got eight of them.
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We actually do the same thing at reinvest with ADUs.
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You know, we'll do six ADU applications in hopes of getting three of them because, you know, California is retarded when it comes to building.
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And so you just, you just go in knowing that, you know, uh, and that's okay.
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You know, you underwrite, you always underwrite as if you are not going to be able to build.
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And as long as your deal makes sense and pencils out, as long as assuming you're not going to get what you want from the city,
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if you get what you want from the city, it's pure bonus.
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I love that.
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But anyway, so a single company adjusting its investment in the past could directly result in overall demand volatility.
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However, today, because AI is rapidly broadening to sovereign AI, on -prem demand, non -tech companies investing in their own AI,
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all of a sudden you no longer have this single company problem.
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So in other words, in the past, and I've changed, I changed this yesterday.
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Remember how I always say there are these two canaries?
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Okay, canary one is the labor market.
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Unchanged, labor market's a big problem.
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But the second canary, I've historically said is anthropic and open AI.
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But yesterday what I did is I actually changed that.
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I said, no, I think that's wrong now.
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I don't think they matter as much as they used to because you have competition from Microsoft, from Gemini, from Amazon, from SpaceX,
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from Grok, you know, whatever.
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And what's actually happening is you are seeing more diverse AI expenditures
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that insulate the entire AI boom from volatility from one of the companies slowing down
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or one of the companies having problems with financing or whatever.
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Like, it's not just
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Oracle, it's everyone, right?
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It's no longer just one company that moves the whole market.
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So I actually agree with that.
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Okay.
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Then they mentioned here that they're sold out through the rest of the decade,
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that DRAM and high bandwidth volume for the next three years through 2029 is effectively sold out,
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that their goal is to improve longer term demand visibility that can lead to stable revenue and earnings growth.
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Yep.
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That's the whole point of these long -term agreements.
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We talked about the overproduction fear.
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We talked about the custom chips.
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They do mention that prices for HBM4 are expected to increase, and that long -term high bandwidth memory demand outlook remains unchanged.
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Demand remains so strong that customers' volume requirements are more than double what we can supply today.
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That's freaking insane.
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Then over here, this is where they talk about next -gen chips.
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This is where things get a little bit geeky.
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So I'm not going to go really crazy on this but basically right now they use a technology called a 6F.
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Okay.
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This has to do with, uh, the, the measurement of the chip technology that they do.
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And the smaller they go, the more they can put memory cells on chips and potentially, uh, the, the more, you know,
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you could charge for it.
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But the problem with that is they say there's a risk to going to 4F right now, because you might have yield issues.
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You could have reliability issues.
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You could have competitiveness issues, like cost competitive initiatives.
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So what we're going to do instead is we're going to focus on what we do really well, which is smart for a business.
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We're going to focus on the 6F structure.
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We're going to maximize our potential income from the 6F structure.
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That's what we're going to focus on.
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And we'll scale when the time is right.
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So we're going to kick the can down the road a little bit on that.
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Keep in mind that this company is both a DRAM play and a NAND play,
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which is very interesting because I personally have this thesis that DRAM is going to explode in supply, which...
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They counter -argue and say, yes, that might be true,
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but we might net have fewer products out because we're adding more DRAM to high bandwidth memory or whatever.
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We're increasing stack sizes potentially or whatever.
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But they're also a NAND play.
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21 % of their income comes from NAND.
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Now, this gets confusing to people.
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So NAND, the way to think about it is NAND is just, this is all storage.
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When you hear NAND, when you hear SSD, when you hear NVMe, just think storage.
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Okay, storage is different from RAM.
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DRAM, high bandwidth memory, you're under the umbrella.
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DDR5, right?
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Those are all under the memory umbrella.
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NAND, SSD, NVMe, one little category.
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It's all basically storage.
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NAND is the actual memory cell technology.
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Then you've got SSD, which is the finished product.
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That's what you buy.
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The NVMe is what plugs in through your PCI port and the communication between those, blah, blah, blah.
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The point is, this company actually does both.
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I am bullish on NAND because I talked about this even before I read this.
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I'm like, dude, I'm finding that these computers where I run agents on, if they don't have a good SSD,
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they get bogged down, they shut down, they basically blow up.
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If you're trying to push them to the limits too much.
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Because I think what's happening with agents today is they're offloading more of this memory to your SSD
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and not really telling you about it.
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It's happening in the back end and it's crushing some of the weaker computers.
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and it's actually making the case for like, oh yeah, I'm just going to go buy Apple Neos and run chatbots on them.
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Not a good idea.
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You need better computers.
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You know, like for example, I got an M4 Max right here, a laptop, and I could run agents on this guy all day long.
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But those other guys are just going to start smoking.
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But what's happening here is they actually talk about how this is going to happen more and more,
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where basically you're going to see NAND demand increase as AI inference demand increases.
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So you could really store
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some of that cash off of memory because you can't keep it in memory
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because you're just going to saturate your memory and then you're going to be memory locked.
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So this, I have to say, this is probably, and I know this was a lot,
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and we're going to do a valuation on them in just a moment.
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This was probably one of the most bullish earnings calls that I've ever read.
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And I've read a lot of freaking earnings calls.
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Okay, I put myself to sleep reading earnings calls sometimes just thinking about reading the early skull
334
But but yeah this this was incredible
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so SK Hynix 10 out of 10 for giving us insight into this boom is nowhere near done now
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What I do want to do is grab the SK Hynix evaluation now these are 80 hours
337
So I have to be a little careful with how we do these
338
But we're gonna pull the valuation here. So
339
uh let's see a SK HY okay okay
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so SK Hynix is up and what we're looking at is their forecast earnings per share
341
and then their expected growth rate
342
so right now earnings per share are expected to come in and let's go ahead and change this all to US dollars.
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Remember, this is a foreign company, so everything's going to be in Korean Hwan.
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So we're looking for EPS adjusted of 270 Dallajas.
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Now, let me just double check.
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The ratio is 10 to 1.
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So you need to divide EPS by 10.
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This is where it gets complicated.
349
I need to fact check me on this.
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But you need to divide EPS projections by 10.
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So that means one to get to an ADR.
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163 divided by, sorry, yeah, divided by 27, basically.
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162 .73, that's the stock price right now, divided by 27 .1, we'll call it, six.
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This is trading for a six PE ratio right now.
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This is insane because people think these things are going to roll over and fall off a cliff.
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And honestly, the analysts are pricing that in too there's a big negative year in 2029 that they're forecasting,
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but then they go back to growth in 2030.
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The analyst expectations are just looney tunes right now.
359
But anyway, 2027, we expect 35 % growth, 22 % growth minus 18 % growth, and then 28, or sorry, 38 % growth.
360
Let me do that math one more time to make sure I got it right.
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3522 minus 18 plus 3895.
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Yep.
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Divided by four.
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We're expecting a 19 % growth on average for EPS.
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Honestly, I think they'll probably do better than that.
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They're trading for a 6 %...
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P .E ratio divided by 19.
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Dude, this is trading for a point three peg.
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This has been so discounted for cyclicality.
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It's insane.
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I want to be clear.
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I don't own any memory or storage place, but I have to say your boy is salivating.
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The only thing that gets me more excited about that is you checking out reinvestone .com
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We did have a great options trade that we closed out on a sold put today,
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which that was up about 40 % So we're really excited about that.
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I'd love to see you there.
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And once you join, you get that lifetime access.
378
If you like that video, check this one out.
379
I think you're going to love it.
380
Why not advertise these things that you told us here?
381
I feel like nobody else knows about this.
382
We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes.
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Congratulations, man.
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You have done so much.
385
People love you.
386
People look up to you.
387
Kevin Paffrath there, financial analyst and YouTuber.
388
Meet Kevin.
389
Always great to get your take.
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Vocabulário e dicas de fala para esta lição
Esta aula de conversação usa o vídeo “They JUST Accidentally Revealed the Truth: The AI Bubble”. Este vídeo tem 389 frases e 4527 palavras para praticar shadowing. A fala dura 25:59. O falante fala em ritmo natural, cerca de 174 palavras por minuto, próximo de uma conversa do dia a dia. 82% das palavras estão entre as 3.000 mais comuns do inglês; vale a pena estudar o restante antes de começar.
Vocabulário principal deste vídeo
15 palavras do vídeo que vale a pena aprender, com pronúncia e significado:
| Palavra | Pronúncia | Significado |
|---|---|---|
| chip substantivo | /t͡ʃɪp/ | lasca, fragmento |
| earnings substantivo | renda | |
| bandwidth substantivo | /ˈbændwɪdθ/ | largura de banda |
| divide verbo | /dɪˈvaɪd/ | dividir, separar |
| cloud substantivo | /ˈklaʊ̯d/ | nuvem, nimbo |
| fold verbo | /ˈfəʊld/ | dobrar |
| chart substantivo | /t͡ʃɑɹt/ | carta náutica |
| custom substantivo | /ˈkʌstəm/ | costume, hábito |
| pitch substantivo | /pɪt͡ʃ/ | arremesso |
| insane adjetivo | /ɪnˈseɪn/ | insano, doido |
| boom verbo | /bum/ | estrondear, ribombar |
| terminal substantivo | /ˈtɚmɪnəl/ | terminal |
| umbrella substantivo | /ʌmˈbɹɛl.ə/ | guarda-chuva, guarda-sol |
| shareholder substantivo | /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/ | acionista |
| sudden adjetivo | /ˈsʌd.ən/ | repentino, súbito |
Phrasal verbs que você vai ouvir
| Palavra | Significado |
|---|---|
| go up verbo | subir |
| slow down verbo | desacelerar |
| fall off verbo | cair |
| put out verbo | colocar/botar/pôr para fora |
| shut down verbo | apagar, encerrar |
| sold out adjetivo | esgotado |
| blow up verbo | explodir |
| check out verbo | verificar, sacar só |
Frases que vale a pena repetir
Frases curtas e completas do vídeo que você pode usar na conversa do dia a dia:
- What do you want me to do today, boy?
- You want me to do that?
- What you don't want is stranded memory.
- What do you need all the high bandwidth memory for?
- Hey, you wanna buy real estate?
Gramática neste vídeo
As estruturas que o falante mais usa, com as palavras exatas do vídeo:
| Estrutura | No vídeo |
|---|---|
| Present perfect have/has + particípio passado — uma ação passada que ainda importa agora | I've been · they've gotten · there's been |
| Voz passiva be + particípio passado — o foco está no que acontece, não em quem faz | can be sustained · could be left · are called |
| Orações relativas who / which + oração — informação extra sobre uma pessoa ou coisa | GPU, which is · well, which is · SSD, which is |
Pronúncia para ficar de olho
O falante usa 125 contrações e formas reduzidas, como we're, you're, they're. Diga-as na forma curta, do jeito que você ouve.
- Os sons de “th”: bandwidth /ˈbændwɪdθ/, mathematics /mæθ(.ə)ˈmæt.ɪks/, thesis /ˈθisɪs/, strengthen /ˈstɹɛŋ(k)θən/, anthropic /ænˈθɹɒp.ɪk/
- Os sons de “sh” e “zh”: shareholder /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/, potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, ratio /ˈɹeɪ.ʃoʊ/, crush /kɹʌʃ/, artificial /ˌɑː.tɪˈfɪʃ.əl/
- Palavras longas — acerte a sílaba tônica: potentially /pəˈtɛnʃ(ə)li/, expenditure /ɛkˈspɛndɪt͡ʃə/, necessarily /ˌnɛs.əˈsɛɹ.ə.li/, artificial /ˌɑː.tɪˈfɪʃ.əl/, momentum /ˌmə(ʊ)ˈmɛntəm/
Sons difíceis para falantes de português:
- Consoante final — sem acrescentar um “i” depois: chip /t͡ʃɪp/, divide /dɪˈvaɪd/, cloud /ˈklaʊ̯d/, expand /ɪkˈspænd/, fold /ˈfəʊld/
- /l/ final — a língua toca o céu da boca, não vira “u”: terminal /ˈtɚmɪnəl/, bull /bʊl/, trail /tɹeɪl/, enable /ɪˈneɪ.bəl/, artificial /ˌɑː.tɪˈfɪʃ.əl/
- /h/ — um sopro suave, diferente do “r”: shareholder /ˈʃɛəˌhəʊl.də(ɹ)/, harm /hɑːm/, nowhere /ˈnoʊ.(h)wɛɹ/, highlight /ˈhaɪˌlaɪt/, historically /hɪˈstɔɹɪkli/
Como praticar com este vídeo
- Ouça o vídeo inteiro uma vez sem falar e anote as palavras que você não conhece.
- Comece na velocidade 0,75×, faça shadowing frase por frase e volte à velocidade normal quando ficar fácil.
- Grave a sua voz e compare com o original, prestando atenção a palavras como chip, earnings, bandwidth.
O que é a Técnica de Shadowing?
Shadowing é uma técnica de aprendizado de idiomas com base científica, originalmente desenvolvida para o treinamento de intérpretes profissionais. O método é simples, mas poderoso: você ouve áudio em inglês nativo e repete imediatamente em voz alta — como uma sombra seguindo o falante com 1-2 segundos de atraso. Pesquisas mostram melhora significativa na precisão da pronúncia, entonação, ritmo, sons conectados, compreensão auditiva e fluência na fala.