ฝึกพูดภาษาอังกฤษด้วยเทคนิค Shadowing จากวิดีโอ: What the Chessboard for WW3 Looks Like - Prof. Jiang Xueqin

We have seven more classes left in the semester.

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We have seven more classes left in the semester.

And what I want to do in these last seven classes is look at the game theory of World War III.

So what I want to do in this class is just introduce the chessboard,

or the players, and how the game will be played over the next five to ten years.

So the two major players in World War III are the United States and Russia.

And right now, they are fighting a proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran.

Where the United States obviously supports Israel, Russia supports Iran.

And what's going to happen is that this war in the Middle East,

it's going to spread out and it will engulf the entire world.

So what I want to do today is look at the individual players,

USA, Israel, Iran, and Russia,

and explain to you who they are and how they will play this game.

And once we understand their strategy,

then it's going to be pretty easy for us to make certain predictions about how they will behave.

So that's the first thing that I want to point out.

The other thing that I'll point out is that there's a lot of people who believe that peace can be achieved.

this war is a temporary thing and that once Donald Trump leaves office,

once the United States divorces Israel,

then peace will come to the world.

And that's not true.

Because on one hand, what's driving this World War III is a conflict between these four nations.

But on the other hand,

the other force that's driving this conflict is the internal tensions within these countries.

So before, we looked at the idea of elite overproduction.

And so the idea is that the elite are parasites that collect rent from the people.

And so whoever who's in the elite can exploit other people.

So there's competition to join the elite.

And when you have too many people who are trying to join the elite,

this creates internal conflict.

And this is what's happening throughout the world today.

So World War III, it's not just being driven by the disparities between these four nations.

It's really being driven by internal politics within these countries, okay?

So let me put this in a very simple way.

Right now, the people who run the world are transnational capital.

Okay?

And a very simple way of saying this is that if you're a rich person in Russia,

you're incentivized to work with rich people in Iran,

Israel, and the United States.

And as a result, for the longest time,

we've been able to achieve global peace and prosperity.

But because they only get richer and richer,

more powerful, this causes resentment among other elite forces in these countries.

And so there are three major forces that oppose transnational capital within these four countries.

So let's just list them.

The first is of course nationalism.

There are people like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin who believe that it's important to put their nation first.

That globalism is hurting their own people and their own nation.

So that's one force that opposes transnational capital.

Another force that opposes transnational capital is religion or orthodoxy.

Why?

Because capital believes that money is God.

It is Godless, it is secular.

And it tries to create a multicultural,

secular society in order to allow capital to pass through society easily.

That also allows capital to control and dominate society.

So religion is opposed to transnational capital as well.

And the last force that's opposed to transnational capital is artificial intelligence, okay?

AI.

Why?

Because right now, money is what structures society.

And artificial intelligence wants to replace money as a force that structures and centers society.

Okay?

So, in other words, what's happening is that there's a civil war going on in the world where right now,

transnational capital is dominant and transnational capital is represented by Wall Street and City of London.

And there are these three forces,

nationalism, religion, and technology that oppose transnational capital.

So what's gonna happen over time is that they will form an alliance to defeat transnational capital.

And so this is already happening in America where these three forces come together and they support Donald Trump.

And so what drives a lot of Donald Trump's policies is to help his alliance ultimately defeat transnational capital, okay?

That's something that we'll discuss for the rest of the semester.

So another thing that I'll point out is this.

Okay, internally there is a civil war going on,

but externally as well, there are forces that drive these nations to war.

And this is basically environmental collapse.

So for the past few decades,

we humans have been very lucky in that there have been no major ecological disasters.

But if you look at human history, weather patterns fluctuate.

So many speculate that we are heading towards a time of extreme weather patterns.

That means that it becomes harder to grow food.

It means it's harder to access energy.

And so this is going to put strain on the world.

And so the world needs to compete for precious resources.

And quite honestly, we are going to probably approach a time in human history when famine It will be much more common.

We thought that we defeated famine.

We thought that we had developed a system that could feed anyone and everyone.

But over the next few years,

we'll discover an increase in famine around the world and an increase in ecological disasters around the world.

So this is the schematic that I want you to understand.

In World War III, there will be four major players,

the United States, Israel, Iran,

and Russia, and they are competing for global dominance.

No one will win, but the conflict among these four nations will drive geopolitics for the next five to 10 years.

This conflict is driven not just by disputes among these countries,

it's mainly driven by internal civil discord within these countries.

The two forces are the transnational capital versus a coalition of nationalist,

religious people, as well as tech people, okay?

And they have their champions.

So in America, they have Trump.

Trump's national capital is represented by Carney, Mark Carney.

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We'll talk more about him later, okay?

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Mark Carney is currently the Prime Minister of Canada.

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Okay, so they have their different champions,

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and they're gonna fight this war.

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Now, one question that you're gonna have,

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which is the most obvious question is,

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yeah, but what about everyone else, right?

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What about China?

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What about India?

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What about Brazil?

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What about South Africa?

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And yes, it is true,

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oh sorry, and what about Europe?

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And Japan, right?

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And then South Korea.

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And while it is true that these are major economies with a lot of people,

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and it is true that they could in theory have great militaries.

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I will show you what makes these four nations distinct,

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USA, Israel, Iran, and Russia.

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What makes them distinct is that they have a grand strategy that allows them to mobilize their population for total war.

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That's what makes them distinct, okay?

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I'll show you this later on.

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So let me explain to you how this dynamic will play out.

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So you have US, A, Russia, Iran, Israel.

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So the major players that will determine how these four play the games are of course Europe,

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China, Japan, India.

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Okay, alright, so I understand that a lot of people believe

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that China and the United States are in competition with each other.

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That is not true.

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The reason why is that China does not have what we call a grand strategy.

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A grand strategy is just how you perceive geopolitics and how you want to dominate geopolitics.

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China does not do grand strategy.

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China is called 中国.

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Okay?

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中国 means the middle kingdom.

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The idea of the Middle Kingdom is that we are a universe onto ourselves.

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We don't care what happens outside of this universe.

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We would like others to pay tribute to our cultural superiority and we could help develop your other civilizations,

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but honestly, we don't care.

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So China has always been an isolationist society for most of its history.

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Today yes, I understand for these past few decades China has become much more globalized,

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has become much more international,

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much more cosmopolitan, but this is not part of the Chinese tradition.

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So what's happening today, these past few decades, it is an aberration.

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It goes against cultural norms in China.

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But in the long term,

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China will return to its cultural norms and become much more isolationist.

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So China doesn't really matter in the great scheme of things, okay?

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The same is true for India as well.

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All right, so I know India and China have a lot of people,

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but historically they have not really mattered in geopolitics.

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And that's to do with their cultural values and norms.

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Okay?

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Does that make sense?

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Alright.

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So, there are right now three major battlefields in the world.

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The first, obviously, is Ukraine,

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where NATO and Russia are fighting each other, okay?

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And this is a proxy war between the United States and Russia because the United States controls Europe and NATO.

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The second major battlefield, of course,

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is Iran, where right now the United States and Israel is attacking Iran and trying to force it into a surrender.

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Now, the last battlefield is actually in North America, Cuba.

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Okay?

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So this is not really discussed a lot.

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What's been happening is the United States has been embargoing Cuba,

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trying to blockade it, trying to cause society to collapse,

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and Russia has been trying to save Cuba, okay?

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So these are the three major battlefronts we're seeing right now.

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Now, obviously what's going to happen is that more battlefronts will break out.

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Okay?

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And what's going to happen is that as this conflict increases,

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the conflict between the United States and Russia will increase as well.

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So one major area of contention is the oceans.

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Okay?

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Why?

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Why?

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Because the United States believes that it controls all trade access.

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Because the oceans represent trade access.

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And so what the United States has been doing is it has been seizing Russian Shadow Fleet tankers.

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And so what's going to happen is that the Russians will eventually decide to arm its ships,

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and this will create a war in the oceans, okay?

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So that's one trend that we will see happening.

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Another trend that we'll see happening is the rise of Germany and Japan.

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Okay?

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And why?

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Well, historically, the most powerful nation in Europe has been Germany.

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Historically, the most powerful nation in East Asia has been Japan.

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The United States defeated both in World War II.

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And, but now that the United States is at war of Russia,

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it needs proxies, it needs allies to counter both the threat of Russia as well as China.

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So it makes sense that what the United States is gonna do is it's gonna arm Israel to counter Iran,

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it's gonna arm Germany to counter Russia,

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and it's gonna arm Japan to counter China.

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Okay?

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And what's going to happen now is that you have new,

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in this conflict, you have other players emerge that will take advantage of these conflicts to amass more power for themselves.

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So think about North Korea in East Asia, okay?

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Because North Korea is a military society and it can threaten South Korea, Japan, and China.

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Then in Europe you have Poland.

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In the Middle East you have Turkey.

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So these nations are going to try to navigate all this chaos in order to amass more power for themselves.

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So in other words, what's going to happen is complete chaos in World War III.

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Okay, and something that we'll discuss more concretely for the rest of the semester.

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